Rams deal is the best thing to happen for the niners!

Originally posted by susweel:
JC says otherwise

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/15202779/winners-losers-tennessee-titans-los-angeles-rams-2016-nfl-draft-trade-first-overall-pick

Anyone who has an ounce of common sense would know of course the 9ers got screwed. I am not saying the Rams didn't have to give up a tonne to get to No.1, but I am talking about 9ers' own situation. First thing first, they have allowed the Colin Kaepernick saga to drag on just wayyyy too long. In short, they already knew long ago (half way through last season) that they didn't have a franchise QB anymore after seeing how things had unfolded on Kap. In fact, like I had been saying all along they should have never signed Kap to the big contract in the first place. But, that is history now, the question is how to rectify your mistakes? Baalke has zero idea, he has zero idea about drafting offensive players let alone a franchise QB and may I add not just in terms of the required know-how, but actually having the guts to pull the trigger as well.

So, 2 weeks before the draft, what do we have? Is almost safe to say the chances are the 9ers might have already lost their franchise QB pick. So, what are they going to do now? Oh, let's go the defense route of course, wow what a surprise?! LOL. Baalke can draft 100% on defense in this draft if he wants, but come same time next year, he will just get hammered by the same ole question again "so, where the hell is our franchise QB then, Baalke?", "hey Baalke, our offense still stinks up the joint, what are you going to do about it?!", "hey Baalke do you have a frigging clue how to draft a franchise QB", etc, etc.

Yes, no doubt it cost the Rams a heck of a lot to make such a blockbuster move, but it is what it is otherwise it wouldn't be a blockbuster move in the first place. Well, they are moving to LA and they decided to pull the pin. Bottom line, they made it happen and I commend them for having the foresight and conviction in what they do. I don't even know whether Baalke was even prepared for such a move from another team. Who knows, he might get desperate and give the Browns a call and see whether they are willing to do a deal. But, I wouldn't hold my breath, is probably too little too late at this point. In all likelihood, he will end up going defense and may be pick up an O-lineman somewhere along the way or even a mid-round QB project who won't amount to much. But, hey that's Trent Baalke for you.

Originally posted by SofaKing:
True, I just think things have a funny way of falling into place once you find the right QB.

Most recent example would be the Raiders or Seahawks. Both mired in mediocrity for a while. Seahawks get Wilson, BOOM, all of a sudden they are SB contenders and Carroll is a genius. Raiders the joke of the NFL, draft Carr, then BOOM. Coaching staff, draft choices, FA acquisitions start to pan out.

Building a team is a multi-step process. Need to get quality coaching, quarterbacking, and roster. But the QB is a HUGE part of the puzzle.

True, even if it take a couple of years to develop the QB. I believe they can make do this year while they build back the lines and find a couple ellite skill position players--pass rusher and receiver would be nice. Add a better OL and depth across the board and then a QB would make more sense. I just don't believe Goff and Wentz justify the "franchise QB" moniker. Imagine if they could take Buckner, Bosa or Jack in the first and then Spriggs or Whitehair in the second! Then there are good WRs, DL, and OL in succeeding rounds. A strong draft for those positions.

When I watch Goff being interviewed he doesn't exude leadership skills, but reminds me of a young Alex Smith...nice guy, bright but not a true leader. Wentz comes from a questionable level of play so

I have a feeling that Kelly/Baalke will take a QB later that, who will be a fit for his system--Adams knows the system and could help a lot in TC get everyone up to speed.

My preference is Buckner, who would help Eli or other OLB by tying up double teams. Armstead demanded doubles on the other side so that would have to help...especially with Eli's speed and quickness.

Front seven:
Buckner/Williams/Armstead
Harold/Hodges/Bowman/Lynch

How? the Rams just got better regardless of which QB they pick.

Rather have it happen like this than have a team trade up to 6 and take Goff right before us. This rips the bandaid off

Originally posted by 49ersGiants7:
How? the Rams just got better regardless of which QB they pick.

You're right...giving up your first three rounds for two years (six players) for one guy, who may not play this year, will make them much...well...maybe...not.

OK, I understand that some people, especially in California (I'm about 5300 miles away ), are crushed now that Goff is apparently out of reach. Especially after another Cal QB who was drafted early looks to be a surefire HOFer. I also understand that many people are tired of the whole Kaepernick saga, or simply of Kaepernick himself. OK. I get it. I personally think that we have so many holes in the trenches, that getting one of the six other elite prospects (Bosa, Buckner, Jack, Stanley, Tunsil, Ramsey) is much more important. Anyway, I've made this argument before. But the whole "if you don't draft a QB in the 1st you're screwed" argument is nonsense. Not because tons of great QBs are to be found in the lower rounds (they aren't), but because drafting a QB is a terrible crapshoot. We lived through that in 2005 when we had the #1 overall pick. Moving forward from then we have (key: H=hit, B=bust, J=jury out). Note: I'm only rating for the teams that drafted players, so e.g. Cutler is serviceable for Chicago, but was a bust for Denver.

2006: Young (B), Leinart (B), Cutler (B): 0H, 3B
2007: JaFatus (B), Quinn (B): 0H, 2B.
2008: Ryan (H), Flacco (H): 2H, 0B
2009: Stafford (H), Sanchez (B, but was ok for them originally), Freeman (B): 1H, 2B
2010: Bradford (B), Tebow (B): 0H, 2B
2011: Newton (H), Locker (B), Gabbert (B), Ponder (B): 1H, 3B
2012: Luck (H), RG3 (B), Tannehill (J), Weeden (B): 1H, 2B, 1J
2013: Manuel (B): 0H, 1B
2014: Bortles (J), Manziel (B), Bridgewater (J): 0H, 1B, 2J

Final tally in nine seasons: 5-16-3

Looking at last year is too early, although both Winston and Mariota look promising. In fact 2014 and 2013 are also way too soon to judge and only included them for the two obvious busts (Manuel, Manziel). Even without them the score is 5-14-1. Even moving Tannehill to the "hit" column, which would be charitable (what has he actually ever done?), it is still likely that if you draft a QB early you have less than 1 chance in 3 to have a long-term starter worth a damn.

Another way to look at it: of the 32 teams last year, 13 started a QB they drafted themselves in the first round: Rothlesberger, Rivers, Eli, Rodgers, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Newton, Luck, Tannehill, Bridgewater, Winston and Mariota. Not bad, but still not even 50%.

Another way to look at it: of the 12 playoff teams last year, 4 has QBs they drafted themselves in the first round, or a neat 1 out of 3. OK, one got all the way to the SB, but there he lost to a team without a QB (effectively).

I know, I know. The chance of getting a decent starter from the rounds below is even smaller. Much, much smaller. You might get a great QB in FA, but that's even rarer. And the success rate of SB victories with your own 1st round draftee at QB is very good. In the last 20 years there were 10 such wins. If you go back 25 years the score improves to 14/25. Even better, 7 of the last 11 SBs were won by such teams (exceptions being Seattle, NE - who drafted their QBs late, and NO & Denver who won with former 1st rounders acquired in FA - though you could argue that Manning was totally useless last year). Still, a pretty good hit rate.

Drafting your own QB early is still the best way to succeed. But it's not sure-fire, and it's not the only way to succeed. So, having an aneurysm because Goff, Wentz or whoever is out of reach is pointless. We have so many holes everywhere, let's try to fill some of those with one of the other elite prospects out there. Sure, perhaps they end up as busts as well. That's the whole point. That's also why I'm not getting crushed when my own draft-crushes (this year it's Buckner for me) get picked by other teams. It's a crapshoot.

Originally posted by Zachary:

Rather have it happen like this than have a team trade up to 6 and take Goff right before us. This rips the bandaid off

Actually preferred it happened this way because I knew weeks ago that Rams were trading up to get Goff or Wentz, but I thought it would be on draft day that they would trade up to the #6 spot (which would have cost them a lot less draft picks to do so). With both Goff & Wentz off the board, one of the blue chippers will be there at #7, probably not Jack, but good odds either Buckner, Bosa or maybe even Tunsil. Would be ironic if Tunsil is there at #7 - Titans trade up with Niners and get the guy they were going to draft at #1 and Niners end up at Rams old spot at #15. Niners could take either Dodd or Butler at #15 and at least pick up from the Titans one of those two 2nd RD picks they got from the Rams as well as the Rams 3rd RD pick (or rather both 2nd RD Rams picks). Titans come away with Tunsil, a Rams 2nd RD pick this year and the Rams 1st & 3rd RD picks in 2017. Niners come away with Butler or Dodd in the 1st Rd and now have 2 2nd RD and 2 3rd Rd picks to go along with their 2 4th RD and 3 5th RD picks.

Originally posted by Ninerfan84:

Originally posted by WINiner:
I just chuckle in amazement that anyone can think this is good for the 49ers. We were highly likely to draft one of the 2 qbs, both of whom are highly likely to succeed imo, and now those chances are next to nothing.

We are going to be stuck with Kaepernick drama for the season because the team won't part with him for what they'd have taken had they drafted a qb #1 and no team will pay what they expect now that the qb situation returns to shakey.

Post game press conferences are going to be Kaepernick centric because he's caught acting like a teenager with the media, or on the sideline, or some comment about Chip, or what have you.

This trade by the Rams screws us in the worst way. We are going to draft a defensive player who will have the least amount of impact due to Kellys system. We will struggle at qb and be right hete again next year with s**t to choose from at qb.

Are you sure? I don't think we were too high on either Goff or Wentz and reports back that up. The Rams trade drops an elite defensive player to us, I don't see much to complain about. It's a virtually a given that our qbs will play better under Kelly.

What reports? I have read no such reports, link please. The only one thing I am aware of Baalke commenting on the subject was that the division Wentz played in (I believe Baalke is a graduate from the same school if I am not mistaken) has produced quality NFL QB's.

Define better? Blaine and/or Kap can play better than they did last season and the team still have a dismal record because how each played last year is nowhere close to good enough.

This draft is deeeeeeeeeeep in defensive players. Chip Kelly is about explosive offense. We aren't going to improve drastically under Chip Kelly without a LOT more offensive talent. We need a QB or two, a WR or two and another RB, not to mention a G and a T.

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:

It will almost guarantee that they won't get a QB. Which I think is totally OK. There is no Andrew Luck in this draft. It will force them to pick offensive line or defensive line or linebacker or cornerback.

In the end that may work out great for this team. It doesn't bother me at all.

Yup. These QBs are pretty mediocre as far as top 10 QBs go. This is fantastic news for a rebuilding team. We can focus on real talent, not inflated talent.

Originally posted by Rascal:

Originally posted by susweel:
JC says otherwise

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/15202779/winners-losers-tennessee-titans-los-angeles-rams-2016-nfl-draft-trade-first-overall-pick

Anyone who has an ounce of common sense would know of course the 9ers got screwed. I am not saying the Rams didn't have to give up a tonne to get to No.1, but I am talking about 9ers' own situation. First thing first, they have allowed the Colin Kaepernick saga to drag on just wayyyy too long. In short, they already knew long ago (half way through last season) that they didn't have a franchise QB anymore after seeing how things had unfolded on Kap. In fact, like I had been saying all along they should have never signed Kap to the big contract in the first place. But, that is history now, the question is how to rectify your mistakes? Baalke has zero idea, he has zero idea about drafting offensive players let alone a franchise QB and may I add not just in terms of the required know-how, but actually having the guts to pull the trigger as well.

So, 2 weeks before the draft, what do we have? Is almost safe to say the chances are the 9ers might have already lost their franchise QB pick. So, what are they going to do now? Oh, let's go the defense route of course, wow what a surprise?! LOL. Baalke can draft 100% on defense in this draft if he wants, but come same time next year, he will just get hammered by the same ole question again "so, where the hell is our franchise QB then, Baalke?", "hey Baalke, our offense still stinks up the joint, what are you going to do about it?!", "hey Baalke do you have a frigging clue how to draft a franchise QB", etc, etc.

Yes, no doubt it cost the Rams a heck of a lot to make such a blockbuster move, but it is what it is otherwise it wouldn't be a blockbuster move in the first place. Well, they are moving to LA and they decided to pull the pin. Bottom line, they made it happen and I commend them for having the foresight and conviction in what they do. I don't even know whether Baalke was even prepared for such a move from another team. Who knows, he might get desperate and give the Browns a call and see whether they are willing to do a deal. But, I wouldn't hold my breath, is probably too little too late at this point. In all likelihood, he will end up going defense and may be pick up an O-lineman somewhere along the way or even a mid-round QB project who won't amount to much. But, hey that's Trent Baalke for you.

I agree with just about every point. We will be right here talking about the same scenario come this time next year, still picking in the top 10.

Originally posted by okdkid:
Yup. These QBs are pretty mediocre as far as top 10 QBs go. This is fantastic news for a rebuilding team. We can focus on real talent, not inflated talent.

Agreed

Originally posted by SFBuckeye:
That deal great for the Titans and great for the 49ers!

1. We are almost guareenteed a top defensive player at 7 now. Before probadly our only option at 7 would have been Buckner, now there's a chance Jack or Bosa falls to us. This also increases the value of our pick.

2. It's likely that 2 QBs going that high, 1 or both would be busts. Now Trent does not have to worry about a QB in round 1 he can focus on what he does best defense.

3. Even if the QB that the Rams take is good that's a lot of potential talent that will not be going on their roster the next 2 seasons. Whoever they take probadly won't even start til year 2.

4. We are sitting in the perfect spot to trade back with Tennesee so that they can get Stanley. Reports said they couldn't decide if Tunsil or Stanley was better. They give us pick 45 to move up 1500=1500 on the Trade Value Chart.

5. If the Rams take the QB that the Browns had decided on they might bypass a QB all together or attempt to trade down with us at a cheaper price during the draft.

Your first four points WERE ON POINT, esp the 4th point. Stanley could be the PERFECT trade bait for the 49ers. They could move back to fifteen and select Shaq Lawson. I know Baalke loves him and he may be worth selecting at 15.

This is his make or break moment. Keep wondering what we would have had to give up to get to #1. Probably way to much to make it justifiable. But maybe the only choice is to move to #2 if the Rams don't draft the guy they want, which I believe is Goff. If Goff is truly a top 15 QB like MadDog says, you have to draft him even if it means moving up to #2. Phoenix has shown that franchise QB's are almost always taken in the 1st round. To reboot this franchise for long term success you need a franchise QB and this team does not have one, period. Can anybody here really argue for Kap or Blaine? Would anyone really want to bet that Cook or Prescott or even Lynch or Franchise QB's.. Don't think so...

Originally posted by Rascal:

Originally posted by susweel:
JC says otherwise

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/15202779/winners-losers-tennessee-titans-los-angeles-rams-2016-nfl-draft-trade-first-overall-pick

Anyone who has an ounce of common sense would know of course the 9ers got screwed. I am not saying the Rams didn't have to give up a tonne to get to No.1, but I am talking about 9ers' own situation. First thing first, they have allowed the Colin Kaepernick saga to drag on just wayyyy too long. In short, they already knew long ago (half way through last season) that they didn't have a franchise QB anymore after seeing how things had unfolded on Kap. In fact, like I had been saying all along they should have never signed Kap to the big contract in the first place. But, that is history now, the question is how to rectify your mistakes? Baalke has zero idea, he has zero idea about drafting offensive players let alone a franchise QB and may I add not just in terms of the required know-how, but actually having the guts to pull the trigger as well.

So, 2 weeks before the draft, what do we have? Is almost safe to say the chances are the 9ers might have already lost their franchise QB pick. So, what are they going to do now? Oh, let's go the defense route of course, wow what a surprise?! LOL. Baalke can draft 100% on defense in this draft if he wants, but come same time next year, he will just get hammered by the same ole question again "so, where the hell is our franchise QB then, Baalke?", "hey Baalke, our offense still stinks up the joint, what are you going to do about it?!", "hey Baalke do you have a frigging clue how to draft a franchise QB", etc, etc.

Yes, no doubt it cost the Rams a heck of a lot to make such a blockbuster move, but it is what it is otherwise it wouldn't be a blockbuster move in the first place. Well, they are moving to LA and they decided to pull the pin. Bottom line, they made it happen and I commend them for having the foresight and conviction in what they do. I don't even know whether Baalke was even prepared for such a move from another team. Who knows, he might get desperate and give the Browns a call and see whether they are willing to do a deal. But, I wouldn't hold my breath, is probably too little too late at this point. In all likelihood, he will end up going defense and may be pick up an O-lineman somewhere along the way or even a mid-round QB project who won't amount to much. But, hey that's Trent Baalke for you.

Completely concur with your analysis. This draft is probably the make or break moment for Baalke and the franchise for the near future. No clear franchise QB in a draft class next year that looks very poor. How do we start to rebuild as a contender with out one. If we don't get one this year look to years of mediocrity at best...The Rams are either going to turn out to be brilliant or incredibly stupid with this move, no in between. You have to give them credit for making a bold move that could bring them to the top of the division or better. Only time will tell. I just don't think anyone in this organization has the intelligence, clarity and courage to make the moves needed to rebuild this franchise.

Originally posted by Rascal:
Anyone who has an ounce of common sense would know of course the 9ers got screwed. I am not saying the Rams didn't have to give up a tonne to get to No.1, but I am talking about 9ers' own situation. First thing first, they have allowed the Colin Kaepernick saga to drag on just wayyyy too long. In short, they already knew long ago (half way through last season) that they didn't have a franchise QB anymore after seeing how things had unfolded on Kap. In fact, like I had been saying all along they should have never signed Kap to the big contract in the first place. But, that is history now, the question is how to rectify your mistakes? Baalke has zero idea, he has zero idea about drafting offensive players let alone a franchise QB and may I add not just in terms of the required know-how, but actually having the guts to pull the trigger as well.

So, 2 weeks before the draft, what do we have? Is almost safe to say the chances are the 9ers might have already lost their franchise QB pick. So, what are they going to do now? Oh, let's go the defense route of course, wow what a surprise?! LOL. Baalke can draft 100% on defense in this draft if he wants, but come same time next year, he will just get hammered by the same ole question again "so, where the hell is our franchise QB then, Baalke?", "hey Baalke, our offense still stinks up the joint, what are you going to do about it?!", "hey Baalke do you have a frigging clue how to draft a franchise QB", etc, etc.

Yes, no doubt it cost the Rams a heck of a lot to make such a blockbuster move, but it is what it is otherwise it wouldn't be a blockbuster move in the first place. Well, they are moving to LA and they decided to pull the pin. Bottom line, they made it happen and I commend them for having the foresight and conviction in what they do. I don't even know whether Baalke was even prepared for such a move from another team. Who knows, he might get desperate and give the Browns a call and see whether they are willing to do a deal. But, I wouldn't hold my breath, is probably too little too late at this point. In all likelihood, he will end up going defense and may be pick up an O-lineman somewhere along the way or even a mid-round QB project who won't amount to much. But, hey that's Trent Baalke for you.

Originally posted by dtg_9er:

Originally posted by m_brockalexander:

Originally posted by ninerfreak:
We're fooling ourselves if we think we don't need a QB.... Baalke been drafting defense 1st round almost every year...and still can't produce a top offense.

We need to focus on offense for once

I agree. Trying to spin that the Niners are in a much better position now after this trade is ridiculous.

I don't think the arguement is "We don't need a QB" but rather "would Goff or Wentz be an upgrade over the next few years?" On the other hand, the team needs to replace elite talent on defense and the most elite players that are likely to fall to the niners are Jack, Buckner, Ramsey or Bosa. All those guys are considered difference makers. Buckner could replace J Smith, Jack-Willis and Bosa--A Smith. Ramsey may be that shutdown CB that comes along once a decade. Can't lose in this scenario!

Agree

I'm a "wars are won in the trenches" guy.

And our trenches need halp.

I'm all-in on Buckner.

Agree, he has the potential to be another Justin.