Rams deal is the best thing to happen for the niners!

Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Lot's of ways to view this and I'm not sure there is an exact answer, but here are the eight most productive (yards) NFL QBs and their draft placement:

P Manning—1rst, #1 overall
Favre—2nd, #33
Marino—1st, #27
Brees—2nd, #32
Brady—6th, #199
Elway—1st, #1
Moon—undrafted
Tarkenton—3rd, #29

Only two of the top eight were high first round picks--Manning and Elway. I used yards because some very good QBs went to teams with no defense or limited overall talent. It would be interesting to compare this to the eight or so most winning QBs. Will do that if I have time...and the inclination. Maybe someone else can beat me to it. One negative from this list is that it can't include recent history as it's career production. Another way of looking would be overall winning % viewed by round...all QBs drafted included in the numbers. Would have to figure out how to account for guys like Leaf and J Russell though.

Edit: was surprised that only two were outside first two rounds (Tarkenton was third but in an entirely different draft world--1961). Moon was more a commentary on social retardation of NFL owners and GMs.

Its kind of difficult to correlate guys like Tarkenton to the modern era. Bill Belichick's dad basically wrote the Bible on Scouting, scouts and front office people to this day still have copies of it, his philosophy and approach to scouting was very influential. When asked how things have changed, Bill stated that back then a on-the-ball scout could identify a player and keep them largely under wraps until the draft, nowadays everyone essentially has the same information and the same access to all prospects. If the Patriots work out an under the radar prospect on Tuesday, the whole league knows about it by Tuesday night plus there is the internet, social media, Youtube...etc.



One way you can look at QB rankings is through DVOA. Here is a list with top QB DVOA from 1994-2013.


Leaders in Weighted Passing DVOA (1994-2013)

1 Peyton Manning 1 25,299 32.5% Round 1
2 Tom Brady 6 17,498 26.9% Round 6
3 Aaron Rodgers 1 7,693 23.1% Round 1
4 Drew Brees 2 14,827 20.3% Round 2
5 Philip Rivers 1 8,772 20.0% Round 1
6 Tony Romo UFA 7,809 19.1% UDFA
7 Matt Ryan 1 6,381 17.1% Round 1
8 Ben Roethlisberger 1 8,065 14.9% Round 1
9 Chad Pennington 1 4,581 14.8% Round 1
10 Kurt Warner UFA 7,151 14.4% UDFA
11 Jeff Garcia UFA 6,404 11.8% UDFA
12 Matt Schaub 3 4,886 11.1% Round 3
13 Steve McNair 1 7,764 10.5% Round 1
14 Carson Palmer 1 6,779 9.9% Round 1
15 Daunte Culpepper 1 4,919 7.0% Round 1
16 David Garrard 4 2,859 4.0% Round 4
17 Byron Leftwich 1 1,608 3.4% Round 1
18 Matthew Stafford 1 2,478 3.3% Round 1
19 Donovan McNabb 1 6,229 3.1% Round 1
20 Eli Manning 1 4,698 2.5% Round 1




So out of the top 20 QB's in DVOA

13 were chosen in the 1st round

14 were chosen in the first two rounds

1 was chosen in the 3rd

1 was chosen in the 4th

1 was chosen in the 6th

3 were UDFA








From 1994-2013, of the QB's drafted, here are the percentages on how many ended up elected to the Pro Bowl.


Round 1- 38%

Round 2- 18%

Round 3- 16%

Round 4- 3%

Round 5- 0%

Round 6- 10%

Round 7- 4%

Originally posted by dtg_9er:

Lot's of ways to view this and I'm not sure there is an exact answer, but here are the eight most productive (yards) NFL QBs and their draft placement:

P Manning—1rst, #1 overall
Favre—2nd, #33
Marino—1st, #27
Brees—2nd, #32
Brady—6th, #199
Elway—1st, #1
Moon—undrafted
Tarkenton—3rd, #29

Only two of the top eight were high first round picks--Manning and Elway. I used yards because some very good QBs went to teams with no defense or limited overall talent. It would be interesting to compare this to the eight or so most winning QBs. Will do that if I have time...and the inclination. Maybe someone else can beat me to it. One negative from this list is that it can't include recent history as it's career production. Another way of looking would be overall winning % viewed by round...all QBs drafted included in the numbers. Would have to figure out how to account for guys like Leaf and J Russell though.

Edit: was surprised that only two were outside first two rounds (Tarkenton was third but in an entirely different draft world--1961). Moon was more a commentary on social retardation of NFL owners and GMs.

Edit 2: Another way of looking at successful QBs, by arbitrary (somewhat) ranking:

Brady (6th)
Montana (3rd)
Manning (1st)
Elway (1st)
Marino (1st)
Favre (2nd)
Bradshaw (1st)
Staubach (10th—would have been first if not for his military committment) Unitas (9th)
Young (1st—USFL & NFL)

5 of 10 best QBs were first rounders and it would have been 6 if Staubach hadn't gone to Annapolis.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Its kind of difficult to correlate guys like Tarkenton to the modern era. Bill Belichick's dad basically wrote the Bible on Scouting, scouts and front office people to this day still have copies of it, his philosophy and approach to scouting was very influential. When asked how things have changed, Bill stated that back then a on-the-ball scout could identify a player and keep them largely under wraps until the draft, nowadays everyone essentially has the same information and the same access to all prospects. If the Patriots work out an under the radar prospect on Tuesday, the whole league knows about it by Tuesday night plus there is the internet, social media, Youtube...etc.



One way you can look at QB rankings is through DVOA. Here is a list with top QB DVOA from 1994-2013.


Leaders in Weighted Passing DVOA (1994-2013)

1 Peyton Manning 1 25,299 32.5% Round 1
2 Tom Brady 6 17,498 26.9% Round 6
3 Aaron Rodgers 1 7,693 23.1% Round 1
4 Drew Brees 2 14,827 20.3% Round 2
5 Philip Rivers 1 8,772 20.0% Round 1
6 Tony Romo UFA 7,809 19.1% UDFA
7 Matt Ryan 1 6,381 17.1% Round 1
8 Ben Roethlisberger 1 8,065 14.9% Round 1
9 Chad Pennington 1 4,581 14.8% Round 1
10 Kurt Warner UFA 7,151 14.4% UDFA
11 Jeff Garcia UFA 6,404 11.8% UDFA
12 Matt Schaub 3 4,886 11.1% Round 3
13 Steve McNair 1 7,764 10.5% Round 1
14 Carson Palmer 1 6,779 9.9% Round 1
15 Daunte Culpepper 1 4,919 7.0% Round 1
16 David Garrard 4 2,859 4.0% Round 4
17 Byron Leftwich 1 1,608 3.4% Round 1
18 Matthew Stafford 1 2,478 3.3% Round 1
19 Donovan McNabb 1 6,229 3.1% Round 1
20 Eli Manning 1 4,698 2.5% Round 1




So out of the top 20 QB's in DVOA

13 were chosen in the 1st round

14 were chosen in the first two rounds

1 was chosen in the 3rd

1 was chosen in the 4th

1 was chosen in the 6th

3 were UDFA








From 1994-2013, of the QB's drafted, here are the percentages on how many ended up elected to the Pro Bowl.


Round 1- 38%

Round 2- 18%

Round 3- 16%

Round 4- 3%

Round 5- 0%

Round 6- 10%

Round 7- 4%

What the percentage of QBs drafted in round 1 that flopped. All I'm saying is we unless the Browns pass on Goff we are not going to get him so we need to look at other options. Lynch or Cook might be the best option. No way are we trading up to 2. More than likely both of them guys aren't going to be Pro Bowlers. We have the toughest schedule in the league we might be able to find a better QB next draft. I wouldn't have minded that deal if we were trading up for Mariota

Originally posted by WINiner:
I just chuckle in amazement that anyone can think this is good for the 49ers. We were highly likely to draft one of the 2 qbs, both of whom are highly likely to succeed imo, and now those chances are next to nothing.

We are going to be stuck with Kaepernick drama for the season because the team won't part with him for what they'd have taken had they drafted a qb #1 and no team will pay what they expect now that the qb situation returns to shakey.

Post game press conferences are going to be Kaepernick centric because he's caught acting like a teenager with the media, or on the sideline, or some comment about Chip, or what have you.

This trade by the Rams screws us in the worst way. We are going to draft a defensive player who will have the least amount of impact due to Kellys system. We will struggle at qb and be right hete again next year with s**t to choose from at qb.

Are you sure? I don't think we were too high on either Goff or Wentz and reports back that up. The Rams trade drops an elite defensive player to us, I don't see much to complain about. It's a virtually a given that our qbs will play better under Kelly.

Originally posted by Ninerfan84:

Are you sure? I don't think we were too high on either Goff or Wentz and reports back that up. The Rams trade drops an elite defensive player to us, I don't see much to complain about. It's a virtually a given that our qbs will play better under Kelly.

"better" isnt saying much. Not really the same thing as playing "great" or even "good enough."


I think with Kelly until he gets a legit franchise QB prospect that fits his scheme, the results will be mixed at best.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by Ninerfan84:
Are you sure? I don't think we were too high on either Goff or Wentz and reports back that up. The Rams trade drops an elite defensive player to us, I don't see much to complain about. It's a virtually a given that our qbs will play better under Kelly.

"better" isnt saying much. Not really the same thing as playing "great" or even "good enough."


I think with Kelly until he gets a legit franchise QB prospect that fits his scheme, the results will be mixed at best.

Yup I agree with this.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Its kind of difficult to correlate guys like Tarkenton to the modern era. Bill Belichick's dad basically wrote the Bible on Scouting, scouts and front office people to this day still have copies of it, his philosophy and approach to scouting was very influential. When asked how things have changed, Bill stated that back then a on-the-ball scout could identify a player and keep them largely under wraps until the draft, nowadays everyone essentially has the same information and the same access to all prospects. If the Patriots work out an under the radar prospect on Tuesday, the whole league knows about it by Tuesday night plus there is the internet, social media, Youtube...etc.

Yeah, in 1961 there were twelve picks in round one, eleven in the second round, and seven in the third...how that equates to modern drafts is unfathomable. But if you just went by overall number he'd be late first round this year.

I recall reading article about the great scouts who would actually visit all the small schools around the country to find diamonds in the rough. Al Davis had some contacts with small schools and most GMs/HCs did...a different world back then for sure.

It seems now there would be great value in scouts who could read people well and having them talk to family and JH and HS teachers of players. There are always ways to get beyond the happy talk of college staffs. You ask a HS PE teacher what he thought of a prospect and get an answer of "He didn't do wrong on purpose." I guess that would be intereting to decipher. But as one recent pundit said..."No one is really good at drafting...it's a crap shoot at best!"

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by Ninerfan84:
Are you sure? I don't think we were too high on either Goff or Wentz and reports back that up. The Rams trade drops an elite defensive player to us, I don't see much to complain about. It's a virtually a given that our qbs will play better under Kelly.

"better" isnt saying much. Not really the same thing as playing "great" or even "good enough."


I think with Kelly until he gets a legit franchise QB prospect that fits his scheme, the results will be mixed at best.

It's hard to say "great" considering we haven't seen anyone in action yet. Nick Foles wasn't a franchise qb and experienced very good results all things considered. To me, both Kap AND Gabbert are better quality qbs over Foles.

Originally posted by Ninerfan84:

It's hard to say "great" considering we haven't seen anyone in action yet. Nick Foles wasn't a franchise qb and experienced very good results all things considered. To me, both Kap AND Gabbert are better quality qbs over Foles.

Foles had one good season where nobody had tape on him and nobody had seen the Kelly offense in the NFL previously. His second season he looked like a pretty mediocre QB that other teams had figured out.


No teams are going to be fooled by Gabbert. Kaepernick I still think is gone before this month is over.

Originally posted by ninerfreak:

We're fooling ourselves if we think we don't need a QB.... Baalke been drafting defense 1st round almost every year...and still can't produce a top offense.

We need to focus on offense for once

I agree. Trying to spin that the Niners are in a much better position now after this trade is ridiculous.

Originally posted by m_brockalexander:

Originally posted by ninerfreak:
We're fooling ourselves if we think we don't need a QB.... Baalke been drafting defense 1st round almost every year...and still can't produce a top offense.

We need to focus on offense for once

I agree. Trying to spin that the Niners are in a much better position now after this trade is ridiculous.

I don't think the arguement is "We don't need a QB" but rather "would Goff or Wentz be an upgrade over the next few years?" On the other hand, the team needs to replace elite talent on defense and the most elite players that are likely to fall to the niners are Jack, Buckner, Ramsey or Bosa. All those guys are considered difference makers. Buckner could replace J Smith, Jack-Willis and Bosa--A Smith. Ramsey may be that shutdown CB that comes along once a decade. Can't lose in this scenario!

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by Ninerfan84:
It's hard to say "great" considering we haven't seen anyone in action yet. Nick Foles wasn't a franchise qb and experienced very good results all things considered. To me, both Kap AND Gabbert are better quality qbs over Foles.

Foles had one good season where nobody had tape on him and nobody had seen the Kelly offense in the NFL previously. His second season he looked like a pretty mediocre QB that other teams had figured out.


No teams are going to be fooled by Gabbert. Kaepernick I still think is gone before this month is over.

He went from "mediocre qb" aka top 15 qb in the NFL to 3rd string qb on his own team once he left Kelly and his offense. There's no way we trade Kap unless we get another QB within the first 2 rounds.

Ramsey is not a shut down CB and wont do much to help our defense when our front guys can't get home.

Originally posted by Ninerfan84:

He went from "mediocre qb" aka top 15 qb in the NFL to 3rd string qb on his own team once he left Kelly and his offense. There's no way we trade Kap unless we get another QB within the first 2 rounds.

He had one good season. He wasnt a top 15 QB or close in his second season. Teams got tape on him and figured out his tendencies, many of which are similar to Kaepernick who has been steadily regressing since 2012.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by Ninerfan84:
He went from "mediocre qb" aka top 15 qb in the NFL to 3rd string qb on his own team once he left Kelly and his offense. There's no way we trade Kap unless we get another QB within the first 2 rounds.

He had one good season. He wasnt a top 15 QB or close in his second season. Teams got tape on him and figured out his tendencies, many of which are similar to Kaepernick who has been steadily regressing since 2012.

Mediocre means average and top 15-16 would be average. I'm going by what you said.. Point being he went from mediocre starter to 3rd stringer without Kelly. And come on, you and I both know that Kap is a much more talented qb than Foles.

Originally posted by Ninerfan84:

Mediocre means average and top 15-16 would be average. I'm going by what you said.. Point being he went from mediocre starter to 3rd stringer without Kelly. And come on, you and I both know that Kap is a much more talented qb than Foles.

Top 15 isnt mediocre by any means. Foles was worse than that.


And in terms of Kelly's offense, the only real advantage that Kaepernick has is that he can run faster.


Beyond that the offense demands quick thinking, fast decision making, accurate touch passing and a quick release...none of those are his forte.



He is a classic "chuck and duck" QB, good for a run heavy vertical passing offense, not a precision passing horizontal offense.


Like I said, I expect him to be gone sooner rather than later.