Originally posted by strickac:
I understand what you're saying, but I think teams (GMs in particular) are under so much pressure to win that they feel compelled to take the guy that can have the biggest impact and he's one of the top pass rushers in the draft. I think it'll be easy for teams to convince themselves that he's worth the risk in the 1st. If you can get a top 5 player at 15, or at the end of the 1st, that's phenomenal value. I think the temptation will be too great to pass on.
Even with all of Aldon's troubles, people aren't criticizing Baalke for making the pick and at the time it was considered a reach by many. Talent trumps all and GMs will draft him early, just like DGB will go much earlier than warranted because of his talent/potential.
Personally, I'd welcome the pick. If he lapses and proves to be an idiot, we'll all be disappointed. But as long as the talent is there, Baalke will likely not be held responsible. I think he's still a lock for the 1st round and this places him in the 10-20 range. We'll see Thursday. Should be fun to watch.
It will be interesting. I get what you are saying too. And until recently that is how GMs had to think. But the NFL has changed. (I think) You can't sweep the dumb s**t guys like this do under the bus any longer. It not just about them being "distractions" or "bad teammates" or even not living up to their potential because of bad habits/friends/decisions.
Every stupid thing they do builds up until they are missing 6 games, half a season, seasons. Think Josh Gordon. Or even Aldon. It's not just missing the games. Then when you come back, it takes a quarter of the season or more to get back to form. These guys make themselves unavailable. A 5th round talent on the field is worth more than a 1st rounder in street clothes.
The most important ability is availability.
I totally agree it's about GMs wanting to win now and keep their jobs. But I think the pendulum has swung the other way, where the risk outweighs the reward. And if they take a guy like this high and it backfires, that will cost them their jobs faster than taking a less talented pick. Especially if the guy does something particularly toxic.
It will be very telling to see where he goes. It only takes one GM to have talent trump everything else. But I think we have passed the nexus point where GMs and organizations as a whole need to think differently. Much like in the business world where if someone was a top performer, you could overlook them being a sexist or a racist or a drunk, and for many, many years, most businesses tolerated such people for results. But now the harm that can come from someone who can make you liable for lawsuits isn't worth the risk even for a peak performer.
With the new personal conduct policies in place and the heat on organizations to pretty much immediately suspend, if not cut, guys even accused of certain offenses or multiple offenders, I don't know how high GMs can draft any player with obvious question marks like this. Seems to me the risk of players being unavailable combined with the PR risk pretty much immediately drops them out of the first round at least.
This, along with guys like Peters, DGB, PJ Williams, and Greggory will make this a very interesting draft to see how much the culture has (or hasn't) changed. And/or what certain offenses or how guys responded in interviews affects whether some of these guys fall a little, at all, or take major slides.
