OnTheClock's Mock Premiere 1/9/15

OnTheClock · 2015-01-09T17:59:45-08:00

The time has come, the first OTC mock of the year. We have had the toughest division in football for several years and I expect that to continue. The Seahawks and Cardinals should still be good next year and the Rams should improve after adding more pieces and getting some players back from injury. The 49ers will lose some guys, but I think they will manage to keep most of their key players. After much deliberation, here are my thoughts: I see the 49ers losing the following STARTING players this off-season: OLB Ahmad Brooks WR Michael Crabtree DE Justin Smith - I think Smith retires, team works out a deal with Iupati (or franchises him), & Frank Gore returns. Also think Culliver comes back. Young players on the team/in the system already who could compete in TC: WR - Quinton Patton TE - Trey Millard (FB/TE) OL - Brandon Thomas, Dillon Farrell CB - Keith Reaser, Kenneth Acker ILB - Nick Moody, Shane Skov DL - Lawrence Okoye, Kaleb Ramsey The fact that Baalke has final say on the roster is a big key. The players in this scenario are protected from a new coach displaying a "his guys vs. the old guys" mentality. Baalke knows the roster well, he knows the holes, and knows who should stay or go. To me, these were the 49ers Three Biggest Problems Last Year: 1. Pass Protection 2. Lack of a deep threat 3. Pass Rush Strategy and other notes: I think Baalke trades down. This draft is extremely weak so there's not much value past the third round. I think the team would be wise to bolster competition and depth at their key positions of weakness/potential turnover, being OL, DL, OLB, and WR (to a lesser extent). 49ers are expected to receive at least one compensatory pick, but it's doubtful it'd be any higher than a 6th. Most likely they get one 7th rounder. I've incorporated this below. I don't think we select a QB. We'd be better served adding a veteran presence to help Kaepernick with recognizing on-field tweaks needed. ------------------------------------------------------- 49ers 2015 NFL Draft 1. Malcom Brown-DE/NT-Texas, 6-4 320 5.26* Not only is he a consensus 1st-team All American, Brown is a class act on and off the field, and those qualities would certain earn him points for the 49ers after all the recent trouble we've had with some players. Brown is high-ceiling potential star who I believe fits our hybrid scheme well. He shows good awareness to bat down passes and many would argue he possesses a stronger pass rush than the any of the other potential NT prospects in this year's class. Selecting Brown not only gives the 49ers insurance, knowing Dorsey, Williams, and Dial's injury history, it allows them more flexibility to use versatile players like Dorsey and Dial to play at DE and utilize their skill at those positions as we find a balance for the best front 7. To me, this seems like a classic Baalke-style selection. McDonald is already gone and Justin may ride into retirement. We will need to select a DL in this draft. 2. Ty Sambrailo-OT-Colorado State, 6-5 315 5.27 After seeing how horrendous our OL performed when suffering injuries to the tackle spots and interior, I'd be shocked and appalled if we did not address this issue in the draft. Jonathan Martin sadly demonstrated he's nothing more than a stop-gap at best that simply is not starter worthy or versatile enough to bring much value to the team. Looney also doesn't look like he'll be around much longer either. Sambrailo has the coveted long arms trait and boasts the versatility to play just about every position on the line except center. Yes, the 49ers have Staley and Davis locked up for a while, but Davis' concussions and injury concerns have to be on Baalke's mind this off-season. It would be pure idiocy to fail to address this area. 2. Justin Hardy-WR-East Carolina, 6-0 188 4.49 We all want a 6-4 220 pound receiver who runs a 4.3 - 4.4, but there simply aren't hardly any in this draft. Odell Beckham and a multitude of other receivers prove that the size issue is majorly overblown. What an offense simply needs is playmakers and a staff that utilizes them. Deceptive speed and exceptional hands, Hardy finished this season with his third straight 1100 yard and 8+ TD year. Hardy has great open-field moves and the more I watch him, the more I like the kid. He consistently catches the ball well in traffic and can make outstanding plays while being essentially mugged by corners -- a perfect trait for playing teams like Seattle and Arizona. I'd like to see him carry the ball less loosely, but the tools to work with are all there. Rashad Greene is another player in this range who I think would be a good pick, he is probably quicker than Hardy but I don't think is as strong physically. 3. LaDarius Gunter-CB/S-Miami, 6-2 198 4.50 I am a big fan of Gunter based on what I've seen from him over the past couple of seasons and I believe he has a shot to rise on teams draft boards with a good combine and interviews, especially considering the infatuation with big, tall corners now in the NFL. Possessing long arms and terrific instincts, Gunter does a nice job making tackles in the open field, generally taking good angles and making solid form tackles. He also boasts impressive anticipation of routes with gliding, sneaky speed to intercept or break up passes. Not only does he have experience at both corner and safety, he is also a contributor on special teams and a very good one at that, getting downfield quickly to corral the returner. One weakness of his that shows up is the inconsistency in tracking some passes, much like Chris Culliver, but overall when you look at his skill set it's easy to see why he could be deserving of a top 100 pick this spring. To be honest, I would not be surprised at all to see him skyrocket up the boards with a strong off-season. 4. Henry Anderson-DE-Stanford, 6-6 296 5.06 Boasts a perfect 3-4 DE frame and has the experience and production (8 sacks, 14.5 TFL) in the scheme to warrant consideration as a 4th round pick. We'll s ee if he rises further than this at the combine, but Anderson is a guy I think the 49ers would love to add to the DE rotation. After the depature of McDonald and potential loss of "Cowboy", the 49ers must certainly think about reloading at DL. 5. B.J. Finney-C/OG-Kansas State, 6-4 303 5.28 Really like Finney. Team leader and fan favorite, he shows a lot of the qualities you like in an NFL lineman. He may not pop out as an "elite" talent, but overall I think he's a rock solid prospect who is probably fairly underrated. Looney doesn't look like he'll last much longer with the team -- he obviously is not cut out for center -- and Dillon looks like he's already on his way to being the next UDFA contributor for us. I see the team keeping the versatile Dillon and letting Martin, Kilgore and him compete for the C spot in TC, with the opportunity to win jobs at OG if Iupati walks. 6. J.R. Tavai-OLB-USC, 6-2 250 4.79 Like many late-round Baalke selections, Tavai has a little bit of an injury history, but over the past couple years has managed to stay productive. This season he led the Trojans in sacks with 7, along with 13.5 tackles for loss and 3 forced fumbles. Tavai is a high-motor player who wouldn't have too rough of a transition scheme wise, as he has played both DE and OLB in USC's 3-4 defense since they switched over. Tavai would bring another talented player into the mix of our LB corps and hopefully would help bolster our pass-rush depth. 7. Ray Drew-DE-Georgia, 6-4 284 4.79 Another very underrated player who would make a great developmental 3-4 DE prospect. Performed well in the stack-n-shed role he was asked to do at Georgia, and his talent is nowhere near shown by his statistical numbers. Drew has the potential for even more growth on top of his already superb blend of size and athleticism. I expect us to stock up on players in the trenches because a lot of our turnover figures to be in that area. 7. Brock Hekking-OLB-Nevada, 6-4 255 4.65 Local product who is remarkably athletic with solid production (9.5 TFL with 5 sacks, 1 fumble recovery), Hekking is worth investing in here in the later rounds of the draft. Hekking explodes off the snap and has a great speed rush, but will obviously need to refine his game in terms of developing an array of pass rush moves and defending the run. A strong combine could cause him to rise, but as it stands, he's slated to go in this range. ------------------------------------------------------- Quick-Look Training Camp Depth Chart: RB Hyde, Gore, Hunter, Gaskins WR Boldin, Johnson, Patton, Ellington, Hardy* TE Davis, McDonald, Carrier, Millard (FB/TE) OT Staley, Davis, J.Martin, Sambrailo* OG Iupati, Boone, Thomas, Farrell, Looney, Finney* C Kilgore, Martin DL - Carradine, Dial, Williams, Dorsey, Jerod-Eddie, Ramsey, Okoye, Brown*, Anderson*, Drew* OLB - Aldon, Lynch, Lemonier, Skuta, Chase Thomas, Tavai*, Hekking* CB - Brock, Culliver, D.Johnson, Acker, Reaser, Gunter*

Jan 9, 2015 at 6:33 PM

genz22
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Posts: 634

I like it however I would like them to draft a QB at some point this year as well.

Jan 9, 2015 at 6:57 PM

tohara3
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Posts: 30,673

Nice job OTC

Jan 9, 2015 at 7:55 PM

Paul_Hofer
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Posts: 4,054

No thanks. I'm higher on an NT than most, but not in the first. A back up OT should be had in free agency. A WR for the Niners doesn't have to be big, but fast. Only one skill guy on offense, and only two offensive players overall? We watched different teams this year. I think with the guys you've selected, the Niners won't improve.

[ Edited by Paul_Hofer on Jan 9, 2015 at 7:58 PM ]

Jan 9, 2015 at 8:04 PM

FL9er
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Posts: 10,889

Nice job, OTC. You don't think CB is a need? (Albeit a weak CB draft)

Jan 9, 2015 at 9:40 PM

ads_2006
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Posts: 64,317

First player is a class act off the field = Not a baalke guy

also we draft a local player?

not realistic OTC

Jan 9, 2015 at 9:55 PM

AB81Rules
Hall of Fame
Posts: 33,947

You know me OTC, I always disagree with some stuff you say, which is why I doubt Iupati is back, unless he lowers his likely $$$ demands, I doubt they will franchise Iupati, which would cost over $10M for 1 yr.

I hope Justin sticks for 1 more year, but I don't know to be honest what will happen.

Jan 9, 2015 at 10:13 PM

GEEK
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Posts: 19,412

It's hard to evaluate your mock without knowing your HC prediction as well as your FA targets.

However, adding a OT in the 2nd round as a backup doesn't make sense to me. Especially since our RT and LT are locked up for multiple years and we still have Martin as a backup. And if we sign Iupati to an extension, we have Brandon Thomas waiting in the wings to replace whoever at LG or RG. That pick doesn't make sense.

Jan 9, 2015 at 10:30 PM

All22
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Posts: 2,880

I appreciate all the time and research you put into your mock -- Top Notch Work!!!!

That said,

1. All mock's should include some kind of prediction about the HC/OC because that greatly affects our roster choices.

2. I'd bet my house that we aren't franchising Iupati.

3. Not taking a RB in this draft would be a huge mistake. This year's RB class is even better and deeper than last year's WR class.

4. The more I see of Justin Hardy the more I like him. His hands are phenomenal.

5. you have us taking two OLB's? That's a bit exccessive considering we have Aldon/Lynch/Lemonier/Skuta already.

Jan 9, 2015 at 10:55 PM

Since07
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Posts: 5,069

Looks like what you think will happen and not "what you want to happen" No way do we let the best run blocking OL in the league go. I don't think that we go NT 1st (tho haven't read up on M.Brown) I felt the same way about H. Anderson but he does seems better as a 4-3 end. Thanx for the fresh prospects to look up great read/Job!

Jan 9, 2015 at 10:57 PM

#10

Kolohe
Hall of Fame
Posts: 66,731

I'll tell you one thing you definitely fixed the O-line. I would for Baalke to draft Malcom Brown and Henry Anderson, I also like the Justin Hardy pick too. Nice detailed analisys OTC I don't expectanything less.

Jan 9, 2015 at 11:04 PM

#11

Since07
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Posts: 5,069

Originally posted by All22:

3. Not taking a RB in this draft would be a huge mistake. This year's RB class is even better and deeper than last year's WR class.

5. you have us taking two OLB's? That's a bit exccessive considering we have Aldon/Lynch/Lemonier/Skuta already.

Goood points! Saying the RB class this yr is better than last yrs WR class does seem outrageous though

Jan 9, 2015 at 11:17 PM

#12

SanDiego49er
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Posts: 52,189

This is a good mock. OL and DL are big needs. The WZ is very WR obesessed. Baalke sucks at picking them and we probably won't take one real high anyway. Kap is fine with the weapons he has if he can learn to make his reads and throw accurately.

Jan 9, 2015 at 11:27 PM

#13

OnTheClock
Hall of Fame
Posts: 38,455

Always much disagreement with the first mock, but I really don't expect too much to change by the time I release my final predictions near draft time. I do think the team will bring Gore back and a future mock may include a RB, based on Baalke's draft history (picking a RB every single year he's been here).

But as I indicated, a combination of bad offensive line play with Kaepernick's mistakes, Crabtrees drops, often terrible playcalling and a failure to get Patton involved until late in the season was a huge culprit for a poor offensive showing. The 49ers reward patient players who work hard in their development, and I expect Patton to be the next in line for a Kilgore/Ian Williams type of deal/promotion.

Saying we have the OT spot locked down is not considering 1) how mightily Martin had faltered half the season, 2) Davis' slow recovery from his initial injury and then suffering a separate one (concussion) that also held him out for quite a long time, and 3) Boone's severe regression. Those are our current OT options. The FO cannot allow that to remain our future depth. OG is even worse. Iupati is 50-50 on if he'll return (it's up to the FO right now really), Looney is mediocre at best, Dillon is promising but unproven, Kilgore is coming off a season ending injury, Martin suffered a major injury missing half the season and is still dinged up. That's our entire group right there. If we don't recognize we need OL help at every position on that line, we are clueless.

We have playmakers, and while we could certainly always use more, we need the offensive coaching staff to UTILIZE them, the playcalls to give them opportunities, and the line to actually give the plays a chance to develop so the previous two things are not negated.

[ Edited by OnTheClock on Jan 9, 2015 at 11:31 PM ]

Jan 10, 2015 at 12:45 AM

#14

theninermaniac
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Posts: 3,430

Justin Hardy =