2011 49ers Free Agents - Be Ready!!!

I'll use a 1-5 scale with 5 being most likely to a 49er in 2011.

Vernon Davis - 5 (wants to be here)
Alex Smith - 5 (must keep him if he has a solid year, say 25+ TDs)
Takeo Spikes - 5 (no way he's leaving, and he won't retire just yet)
Aubrayo Franklin - 4 (a little worried about what his contract demands are since this may be his only big contract because of his age, and he's never made bank before as a career backup)
Dashon Goldson - 4 (not worried about his agent Rosenhaus, we have a good relationship with him and he has lots of 49er clients)
Ray McDonald - 3
David Baas - 3
Tony Wragge - 3
Karl Paymah - 3
Brian Westbrook - 3
Manny Lawson - 2 (I think his chances of staying go up if he produces more sacks, because the team would be happier to pay up based on production rather than potential...but I don't think he'll ever be a consistent double digit sack guy)
Demetric Evans - 2 (age)
Barry Sims - 1 (age again)
Jason Hill - 0

I don't know if it's whether by luck or design, but most of our high profile guys happen to be at positions which don't pay well, so I think we should be able to retain the majority of the guys that we want to.

Originally posted by Gore_21:
What percentage would you guys give these players of being resigned/tagged and on the team next year?

My guesses:
Vernon Davis 100%
Alex Smith 70%
Dashon Goldson 70%
Ray McDonald 60%
Takeo Spikes 40%
Aubrayo Franklin 30%
Manny Lawson 25%

David Baas - 30%
Tony Wragge - 30%
Karl Paymah - 25%
Brian Westbrook - 25%
Demetric Evans - 15%
Barry Sims - 15%
Jason Hill - 0%

Sims Wragge and Baas all probably gone? That's our O line depth wiped and no center behind Heit. I don't think so. If Baas performs during Heits injury he stays. If he blows we re-sign Wragge who won't cost much.

Originally posted by English:

Originally posted by Gore_21:
What percentage would you guys give these players of being resigned/tagged and on the team next year?

My guesses:
Vernon Davis 100%
Alex Smith 70%
Dashon Goldson 70%
Ray McDonald 60%
Takeo Spikes 40%
Aubrayo Franklin 30%
Manny Lawson 25%

David Baas - 30%
Tony Wragge - 30%
Karl Paymah - 25%
Brian Westbrook - 25%
Demetric Evans - 15%
Barry Sims - 15%
Jason Hill - 0%

Sims Wragge and Baas all probably gone? That's our O line depth wiped and no center behind Heit. I don't think so. If Baas performs during Heits injury he stays. If he blows we re-sign Wragge who won't cost much.

We probably keep either Baas or Wragge if Sims goes. We still would have Snyder, probably Boone, and guys who we draft and practice squad from this year which are cheaper than resigning these guys. So we could also have Chris Patrick, Da La Puenta, Matt Kopa, etc

Originally posted by znk916:
I'll use a 1-5 scale with 5 being most likely to a 49er in 2011.

Vernon Davis - 5 (wants to be here)
Alex Smith - 5 (must keep him if he has a solid year, say 25+ TDs)
Takeo Spikes - 5 (no way he's leaving, and he won't retire just yet)
Aubrayo Franklin - 4 (a little worried about what his contract demands are since this may be his only big contract because of his age, and he's never made bank before as a career backup)

I think Franklin might be too high. I think he wants to go some where else and see what he can get. I am sure we will try though. Also, Spikes I put at 40% because I don't doubt he will go more than just this year but after this year we might want to kick him out as starter to get Bowman going. We could resign as a vet leader but maybe he wants to sign some where else and be a starter. That being said I wouldn't be surprised if we sign him as a vet leader and Bowman takes over half way through next season.

I hope they keep Baas and Wragge. Baas can start at center or guard. I should clarify this a little. Baas gives the niners a viable starter if Rachal does not perform well/injured or if Heitman gets injured.

Originally posted by Gore_21:

Originally posted by znk916:
I'll use a 1-5 scale with 5 being most likely to a 49er in 2011.

Vernon Davis - 5 (wants to be here)
Alex Smith - 5 (must keep him if he has a solid year, say 25+ TDs)
Takeo Spikes - 5 (no way he's leaving, and he won't retire just yet)
Aubrayo Franklin - 4 (a little worried about what his contract demands are since this may be his only big contract because of his age, and he's never made bank before as a career backup)

I think Franklin might be too high. I think he wants to go some where else and see what he can get. I am sure we will try though. Also, Spikes I put at 40% because I don't doubt he will go more than just this year but after this year we might want to kick him out as starter to get Bowman going. We could resign as a vet leader but maybe he wants to sign some where else and be a starter. That being said I wouldn't be surprised if we sign him as a vet leader and Bowman takes over half way through next season.

I think Spikes would come back with the understanding that Bowman would take over eventually, whether it's next year or the year after. He's a 2 down guy at this point anyways, so I don't see him attracting too much value elsewhere.

As for Franklin, I think the Wilfork and Pickett deals this offseason serve to define the limit and base of his value, leaving not a whole lot of room for negotiation. Of course he could ask for more than Wilfork, and someone could be willing to give him more.

Originally posted by SybErkRimInAL:
Here's how I see it.

Alex Smith - stays
Vernon Davis - stays
Dashon Goldson - stays
Aubrayo Franklin - gone
Manny Lawson - gone
Ray McDonald - gone
Takeo Spikes - gone

David Baas - gone
Tony Wragge - gone
Karl Paymah - gone
Demetric Evans - gone
Brian Westbrook - gone
Barry Sims - gone
Jason Hill - gone

I was going to post my list, yours is the same as mine, except I'm hoping we figure out a way to keep Manny

2011 Free Agent List

Alex Smith - stays (on the conditions that #1: He shows he can win games, and #2: Shows a strong grasp of the offense. Also probably won't command that much money due to lack of production in previous seasons.)

Predicted value: 2 years (3rd year team option) for between 14-20 million from incentives and 3rd year option

Vernon Davis - stays (there's no way in hell he leaves this team. 2nd most complete offensive player [behind Gore] who can block, catch, and run after contact. There's a better chance of Tom Brady being picked up by the Colts and Manning being put at 2nd String than VD leaving)

Predicted Value: 5 million more than Antonio Gates contract b/c our guy is younger and offers more than just a scoring threat

Dashon Goldson - gone (Hate to say this b/c I've liked Goldson since his days up in Wash with the Huskies, but I just don't see us being able to meet his high contract demands. He will showcase this season and totally deserve the high contract numbers, but just don't see us putting out the guaranteed money he'll want. Also, Reggie Smith looks like the perfect fit as his replacement after 3 years. I definitely hope I'm wrong but just can't see Goldson staying.)

Aubrayo Franklin - gone (He wants more money than what we can give him, and with Manusky manufacturing his defense to fit his talent so well just don't see the need to overpay for a guy who probably has 3 years left who'll want 5 years at top level. If he decides to take a little less then I'd love to have him but not really worried since our DC is good at getting the most out of all his players)

Manny Lawson - stays (I know this may go against popular belief, but I see Lawson playing at least another 4 years. He will get a pay increase, but not an All-Pro kind of contract. He may lack in the pass rushing, but his run stopping and coverage skills have shown to be better than the majority of 3-4 OLBs. He likes this team and may not show it, but is a cornerstone to the success of our defense. Only team I see pulling him away is the Rams b/c Spagnolo likes the Lawson-type of player, as shown in his days in NY.)

Predicted value: 4 years between 16-29 million (high in incentives)

Ray McDonald - stays (He's a good 3rd down DL and can step up if any of our DEs go down. Won't cost much)

Predicted value: 4 years at backup value

Takeo Spikes - Unknown (If he wants to stay, the team won't say no. Worst case is that he'll rotate with Bowman, but he's too good and too valuable as a leader to just kick out. He leaves on his terms. On the other hand, he may just want to hang his cleats up and go into broadcasting...it's all on him)

David Baas - stays (If he can keep up his extensive success at C and grow in his rapport with Iupati and Rachal, that middle of the line will average over 310lbs and Gore will have an average over 5 yards a carry b/c he loves running between the tackles. I like Heitmann as much as the next 49er fan, but Baas is younger and offers more upside down the road to gel with our young OL)

Predicted offer: 5 years and I dunno how much lineman supposedly get paid...lol

Tony Wragge - stays (Good depth and will be cheap)

Predicted value: 2 years at backup salary

Karl Paymah - gone (Don't really see a dire need for him and Adams has shown promise)

Demetric Evans - gone (We have depth and unless he resurges his career this season, most likely going to walk)

Brian Westbrook - gone (Will most likely use this season to show he's still a great back and will be picked up somewhere as a #1 back for #1 money. I don't mind b/c that means he's gonna shine as our #2 )

Barry Sims - gone (OT back ups are a dime a dozen and can pick one up when needed)

Jason Hill - gone (will be cut before the 53 man roster this season. I have much respect for him, but I played against him in High School, so I hold a grudge against him. Hope he can excel on another team, but always get shut down whenever he plays the 49ers )

Crazy49er, good post...

After the season it's going to get really interesting. Who we want to keep? Who do we think we can replace? What positions do we draft? After 2011 it will be interesting too because Gore, Rachal, Nedney, Reggie Smith, Brooks, Heitmann, Snyder, Ginn Jr., Carr, Norris, and Morgan are all free agents. Not as bad as this year but still a lot of players we need around. We where spoiled the past 3-4 years with no big free agents... just kind of backups/role players and it's catching up with us.

Alex Smith - I think Alex Smith will be resigned to a 2-3 year deal if he has a mediocre season. I think he'll be signed to a 5 year deal if he has a strong year.

Vernon Davis - VD will be franchised if they can't get a long-term extension ironed out.

Dashon Goldson - Under the current applying labor agreement, Goldson would be a RFA. If true, he won't be going anywhere.

Aubrayo Franklin - I think we'll sign him to a 3-4 year deal. Just because RJF has shown flashes doesn't mean we need the depth. RJF could beat out Sopoaga at DE, too.

Manny Lawson - This year's effectiveness will determine if he gets resigned. Gut feeling? No.

Ray McDonald - 3 year, 8M extension should do the job for McDonald.

Takeo Spikes - 1 year, 2.5M deal would be my guess if he doesn't retire.

David Baas - He will get a deal from the Raiders or Lions that will greatly outweigh a 49ers offer.

Tony Wragge - 2 year, 2M can easily retain Wragge. If Baas leaves, I think Wragge stays.

Karl Paymah - Goner. If Phillip Adams develops into a #4, then I see the 49ers making a serious push for CB in the first couple of rounds in the draft to replace Nate Clements.

Demetric Evans - May get resigned as camp fodder but don't bank on him making the roster if Mitchell and Walker remain in contention.

Brian Westbrook - Depends on his health and production. Gut feeling is that we'll draft a speedy back instead.

Barry Sims - If Adam Snyder completely falls flat on his face this year, then I think Sims has a chance to retain a roster spot and new contract. Hell, Sims can be gone this year if Boone performs well for the last two games.

Jason Hill - RFA clause here again. I can definitely see the 49ers try and trade Jason Hill for a late round pick within the last two preseason games if another serious injury occurs. Hell, I think the Rams should take a flier now that Donnie Avery is out for the year.

Alex Smith - IF, and only IF! he has a successful year (gets to playoffs and wins at least first playoff game) he will be back. He's still very young, and didn't play for 1 1/2 seasons, so he's not too banged up.
Vernon Davis - Davis will be back, similar to Willis...Balke will get a deal done quick
Dashon Goldson - Love him, but seems to be too interested in $$$...if thats the case let him walk. We have groomed Reggie Smith who is more of a FS anyways.
Aubrayo Franklin - I understand Franklin's stance, he's been a career backup and has been paid as such, he's got a chance to cash in...cant blame him. I think a deal gets done. His hold out in TC, was for his own health...not selfishness.
Manny Lawson - I think Manny will be gone next season, unless LaBoy/Briggs dont show up when their numbers are called.
Ray McDonald - Love RayMac...He's an excellent backup with a nose for the ball. He gets resigned
Takeo Spikes - Spikes will have a Farve like decision to make... he truly loves football and plays with a ton of heart, but can his body holdup?

David Baas - Bass proved he is versatile enough to play well at C and G, we'd be stupid to let Baas walk at this point.
Tony Wragge - Gone unless he signs cheap
Karl Paymah - CB will be drafted in 1st or 2nd, Paymah wont be resigned
Demetric Evans - Gone
Brian Westbrook - Depends on draft and Westbrooks health
Barry Sims - Boone will be ready to fill in and Sims will retire
Jason Hill - Wish I knew the whole story with Hill, coaches didn't like him or maybe he has an attitude??? seems like Ziegler is taking his spot on roster. May not even make 2010 roster...

It was fun to see how much talent we have past our starters this preseason, 2010 is going to be a fun season, we legitimately can win each game we play. Couldn't say that in 05-09

I would feel a lot better if we resigned Vernon asap

vernon will be signed back 100%

Just looked at AB83's salary cap thread stickied in NT, and here are some thoughts.

re: Westbrook
Unless Gore misses a bunch of games, I doubt Westbrook will get enough touches to re-establish his value as a #1 back. My guess is he will be valued along the lines of Chester Taylor, who got 4yrs/12.5m this offseason.

re: Goldson/Lawson/Franklin
Will all cost around 7-8m per, meaning that we will probably only be able to keep 2 (assuming Alex and VD are locks to re-sign).

Whether we keep 1 or 2 of them will likely have a huge impact on how many veterans/backups we can sign in the 2-3m range like Westbrook/Spikes/McDonald/Sims/Evans.

I would watch what happens to Curtis Taylor for an indication of what the Niners are thinking in the Dashon Goldson situation. My thinking is this: Michael Lewis' days are numbered due to age and injuries. Taylor Mays is being grooomed as a replacement. Reggie Smith is looking good as the 3rd safety. He could replace Goldson if he leaves, but then there would be NO safety depth on the roster.

They'd either have to invest a relatively high draft pick for an NFL ready type, or more likely they'd have to go out into free agency and get a Mark Roman type (and we all know how appealling that sounds!)

And here is where Taylor comes in; all reports I've seen are saying he's had a very good camp. If the club thinks Goldson is going to get away, I think they'd find a way to keep Taylor on the roster. If they are planning on franchsing Goldson or coming up with some other way to keep him around, the urgency to keep Taylor is much less, and the club might risk losing him.

Just something to watch...