MadDog's Big 200 Board

Originally posted by TexasNiner:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by ChaunceyGardner:

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by AB83Rules:
I cant speak for MD, but for myself Texas. I see atleast the big 4 going top 45, then Ponder and Dalton could find there way into the late 2nd.

Im warming up to Newton, I still am sketchy on Gabbert.

But I can see Gabbert at 1 to CAR, Newton at 4 or 5, Locker to SEA and Mallett at begining of rd 2 to Buffalo.

Ponder maybe to us depending on rd 1.

But of course like MD said lots of smoke and mirrors right now.

Honestly tho, and a bit off topic, Myself, MD and OTC and Ghost i believe are the most knowledgable guys on the zone. Draft wise its MD and OTC, player wise my boy Ghost, then myself with the Cap.

So, i think we are blessed to have 3 great guys, and then little ole me, lol. Alot better than McShay and Kiper. lol.

If I had to guess, MD's answer on why he's got 7 QB's going in the top 50 would have to do with "inflationary value" due to high demand for the position this year compared to years in the past. I don't think it's unfeasible, especially this year with no ability to sign or trade for players prior to the draft taking place. That's really the underlying cause of that extreme demand.

One question one might ask is: What team is willing to take the risk of drafting no QB, and then not being able to land who they wanted via trade?

Are the 49ers willing to take that risk? I think not.

The number of teams that really need, or want, a QB seems incredible.

1. 49ers (need)
2. Cardinals (need)
3.Seahawks (need, well,maybe just a want this year)
4. Panthers (need)
5. Bills (need)
6. Bengals (need. Palmer is not just talking)
7. Titans (need)
8. Vikings (not sure, think it is a need)
9. Dolphins (big want)
10. Redskins (need)

Combine the need with the free agency put off until God knows when.

The Bengals might not be willing to trade Palmer.

The Eagles are going to ask for an arm and the next born child for Kolb.

If you like Alex Smith, and many do, be happy for him.

He is going to get a good deal in free agency!!!!!

And those are just the teams that need a starter. Even the Patriots have a private workout lined up for Andy Dalton so even the elite teams with QB's are looking to take one to groom to be the next guy or backup.

The league has about a third of their teams with nobody worthy of a starting position and no long-range franchise QB, and that really creates a demand to find the next guy.

Even teams like the Colts and Pats need to begin the process of grooming a next QB, as the play of Manning (he's starting his 14th year) and Brady (starting his 12th year) may not be at the same level in 3 years or so, while their salaries will be astronomical.

So, while many 49ers fans are disappointed with Alex Smith, I always remind people to think about other franchises, who are in much worse shape. Teams like Miami with Chad Henne, Minnesota with Jackson, Carolina with Clausen, Arizona with Skelton, Tennessee with Young, and the list goes on and on. Smith could possibly be the top free agent QB on the market this year, and would be an immediate starter for about 8-10 teams in the NFL.

Here is what I keep coming back to with that analysis: You are right about Alex. He's not the worst in the world. He's sort of an ok, at least borderline starter. And in the right environment he may be more successful. Of course, he may not. But that's not the point.

Let's assume he IS the best FA QB on the market and that he won't be significantly better or worse than he has been.

So, in FA the best you can do is get an Alex Smith or maybe if they get cut, a Mcnabb, Young or maybe Orton or Kolb via trade. In the draft, odds are only two QBs at most will be better than that. In any draft class, there usually aren't more than two QBs who are pro-bowl or franchise QBs. There are exceptions where there are more or none. But usually two, MAYBE three would be the most a class produces. And it's not a given that there will be any.

Other than that, you will likely get an "Alex Smith/Chad Henne" level player at best with the second tier QBs. Whomever they are. Let's assume one of the "first rounder" and one later round picks turn out to be the studs in this draft.

Then odds are, one of the top QBs will bust. Most of the later round QBs will be career clipboard holders or worse. And two or three will be solid backup to borderline starter types.

That is certainly about what to expect from any QB draft class.

And as we know, unless something gets resolved quickly, the odds are rookies won't get a chance to compete for starting jobs this year because they will have a limited off season.

So, why is drafting a rookie a better or lesser risk than FA or trade? And why would teams forgo BPA in an otherwise deep draft class to draft someone who at best might be an Alex Smith/Kyle Orton/Kevin Kolb, when those guys exist in the NFL and are at least known commodities?

Maybe I'm beating a dead horse and we'll just see in a month. But I just don't see the upside to this rookie class or rookie QBs being any more or less of a risk than FA/trades because of the off-season issues.

Both have tremendous uncertainty and both have a pretty lackluster crop of QBs available.

In a way though, I hope it happens and that we avoid the fray. JH supposedly has evaluated talent others had as later round QBs who he pegged as players who could be successful in the NFL. Hopefully he can do this again, let his QB come to him in the 3rd or 4th and if all the other teams gobbled up QBs super-early, then we get better players at other positions early and are in a good position to sign/trade for vet once those other teams have invested early picks and money on QBs already.

The difference is that you can determine your own future now, by drafting the guy you like at QB. In free agency, you are at the mercy of the player liking your team, city, facility, ownership, coach, not to mention being in competition for the same player by multiple squads. Even if 4 or 5 decent pros are ready for movement, that still leaves 4 or 5 teams without a QB...unless they have grabbed one already through the draft.

Since trades cannot be made until the CBA is reached, this is also out of your hands until an agreement has been struck. And, some teams might just sit on their player for the year, since they would only receive compensation for draft choices in 2012, a full year away. Philly might as well sign Kolb to an extension, ride out 2011, and deal him for draft choices in 2012.

Originally posted by Joecool:
Do you guys think teams pass up drafting a QB in the top 10 for the reason that next year will absolutely be a rookie cap year and they will be spending too much money drafting a weak QB class this year?

A continuation of the current non-rookie cap would only impact 2 or 3 guys at the top, since the rest would be looking at second round draft compensation, which is not a problem for the team's wallet.

Carolina may agree with your premise, draft a DL, who normally do not demand the same top dollar as a first overall QB, and ride Clausen through 2011. However, no coach wants to begin his new regime with a leftover QB that nobody in the organization feels is the leader for the future. Drafting a Newton or Gabbert gives the team new life and hope, and will sell tickets. I doubt people will be lined up to see the first overall.....Marcell Dareus.

[ Edited by MadDog49er on Mar 21, 2011 at 12:32:25 ]

If Holmgren trades with Dallas so they can get Peterson in front of us I will be pissed

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Joecool:
Do you guys think teams pass up drafting a QB in the top 10 for the reason that next year will absolutely be a rookie cap year and they will be spending too much money drafting a weak QB class this year?

A continuation of the current non-rookie cap would only impact 2 or 3 guys at the top, since the rest would be looking at second round draft compensation, which is not a problem for the team's wallet.

Carolina may agree with your premise, draft a DL, who normally do not demand the same top dollar as a first overall QB, and ride Clausen through 2011. However, no coach wants to begin his new regime with a leftover QB that nobody in the organization feels is the leader for the future. Drafting a Newton or Gabbert gives the team new life and hope, and will sell tickets. I doubt people will be lined up to see the first overall.....Marcell Dareus.

Mike Singletary says you're wrong.

Originally posted by jreff22:
If Holmgren trades with Dallas so they can get Peterson in front of us I will be pissed

I think you can bank on this happening IF PP slips out of the Top 5.

Originally posted by KezarLivin:

Originally posted by jreff22:
If Holmgren trades with Dallas so they can get Peterson in front of us I will be pissed

I think you can bank on this happening IF PP slips out of the Top 5.

Based on your connections with Holmgren and Jerry Jones, right?

Blaine Gabbert!

Draft him!

Maddog, you should join the VET MOCK DRAFT. Bring your wisdom to the Vet forum. Pick a team!

Originally posted by NickSh49:
Maddog, you should join the VET MOCK DRAFT. Bring your wisdom to the Vet forum. Pick a team!

Thanks, but I'm gonna pass. I prefer mocking the mocks.

MD, there are a few players -- DL to be more specific -- that I've felt the need to elevate (or at least consider elevating) on the board. I'm curious if you're thinking about doing the same. as all of these following linemen reportedly had such impressive workouts, that they are now considered picks worthy of up to a 4th round selection or so:

1. Dexter Larimore-DT-Ohio State
At 6-3 319 clocked a 5.18 forty-time, a 30 1/2 inch vertical, with 32 reps of 225 lbs.
Stats on the year: 40 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 4 sacks

2. Cory Grant-NT-TCU
At 6-1 316 clocked a 5.09 forty-time, a 28 inch vertical, with 35 reps of 225 lbs.
Stats on the year: 18 tackles, 5 TFL, 3.5 sacks

3. Anthony Gray-NT-Southern Miss
At 5-11 330, he clocked a 5.18 forty-time, a 31 1/2 inch vertical, with 39 reps of 225 lbs.
Stats on the year: 44 tackles, 6 TFL, 1.5 sacks

4. Zach Clayton-DT-Auburn
At 6-2 299, he clocked a 4.79 forty time, had a 33 1/2 inch vertical, nearly an 11-foot broad jump, and 27 reps of 225.
Stats on the year: 28 tackles, 8 TFL, 1 sack

[ Edited by OnTheClock on Mar 28, 2011 at 15:48:37 ]

Originally posted by SWAGG-ER:

Originally posted by KezarLivin:

Originally posted by jreff22:
If Holmgren trades with Dallas so they can get Peterson in front of us I will be pissed

I think you can bank on this happening IF PP slips out of the Top 5.

Based on your connections with Holmgren and Jerry Jones, right?

d******d

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
MD, there are a few players -- DL to be more specific -- that I've felt the need to elevate (or at least consider elevating) on the board. I'm curious if you're thinking about doing the same. as all of these following linemen reportedly had such impressive workouts, that they are now considered picks worthy of up to a 4th round selection or so:

1. Dexter Larimore-DT-Ohio State
At 6-3 319 clocked a 5.18 forty-time, a 30 1/2 inch vertical, with 32 reps of 225 lbs.
Stats on the year: 40 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 4 sacks

2. Cory Grant-NT-TCU
At 6-1 316 clocked a 5.09 forty-time, a 28 inch vertical, with 35 reps of 225 lbs.
Stats on the year: 18 tackles, 5 TFL, 3.5 sacks

3. Anthony Gray-NT-Southern Miss
At 5-11 330, he clocked a 5.18 forty-time, a 31 1/2 inch vertical, with 39 reps of 225 lbs.
Stats on the year: 44 tackles, 6 TFL, 1.5 sacks

4. Zach Taylor-DT-Auburn
At 6-2 299, he clocked a 4.79 forty time, had a 33 1/2 inch vertical, nearly an 11-foot broad jump, and 27 reps of 225.
Stats on the year: 28 tackles, 8 TFL, 1 sack

Now OTC, you're just baiting MD with a Buckeye player, aren't you?

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
MD, there are a few players -- DL to be more specific -- that I've felt the need to elevate (or at least consider elevating) on the board. I'm curious if you're thinking about doing the same. as all of these following linemen reportedly had such impressive workouts, that they are now considered picks worthy of up to a 4th round selection or so:

1. Dexter Larimore-DT-Ohio State
At 6-3 319 clocked a 5.18 forty-time, a 30 1/2 inch vertical, with 32 reps of 225 lbs.
Stats on the year: 40 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 4 sacks

2. Cory Grant-NT-TCU
At 6-1 316 clocked a 5.09 forty-time, a 28 inch vertical, with 35 reps of 225 lbs.
Stats on the year: 18 tackles, 5 TFL, 3.5 sacks

3. Anthony Gray-NT-Southern Miss
At 5-11 330, he clocked a 5.18 forty-time, a 31 1/2 inch vertical, with 39 reps of 225 lbs.
Stats on the year: 44 tackles, 6 TFL, 1.5 sacks

4. Zach Taylor-DT-Auburn
At 6-2 299, he clocked a 4.79 forty time, had a 33 1/2 inch vertical, nearly an 11-foot broad jump, and 27 reps of 225.
Stats on the year: 28 tackles, 8 TFL, 1 sack

I'm also curious if you plan on adding Cincinatti WR Armon Binns to the board. I think there's a strong case for him to go anywhere from the 5th-7th.

I see him going somewhere around the 6th round at least. Binns looked pretty good at the combine, posting better workout numbers than I think were expected. Just making the case for Binns:

-He's had back to back 10+ TD seasons at Cincy, 11 TDs last year and 10 this year to go along with 1100+ yards receiving, despite being bracketed and double-covered more often than Gilyard actually was.

-Binns timed faster than Gilyard did last year (4.53 vs. Gilyard's 4.61) and is also much bigger (6-3 209).

Thoughts, MD?

Ryan Mallet lasting till #48 would be a steal for some team. I think that he is not a first round pick, but would be the most talented 2nd round Qb drafted ever.

His arm reminds me of Matthew Stafford, he is slow as hell but I believe that he can be pushed hard and will be motivated that he was overlooked.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
MD, there are a few players -- DL to be more specific -- that I've felt the need to elevate (or at least consider elevating) on the board. I'm curious if you're thinking about doing the same. as all of these following linemen reportedly had such impressive workouts, that they are now considered picks worthy of up to a 4th round selection or so:

1. Dexter Larimore-DT-Ohio State
At 6-3 319 clocked a 5.18 forty-time, a 30 1/2 inch vertical, with 32 reps of 225 lbs.
Stats on the year: 40 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 4 sacks

2. Cory Grant-NT-TCU
At 6-1 316 clocked a 5.09 forty-time, a 28 inch vertical, with 35 reps of 225 lbs.
Stats on the year: 18 tackles, 5 TFL, 3.5 sacks

[b]3. Anthony Gray-NT-Southern Miss
At 5-11 330, he clocked a 5.18 forty-time, a 31 1/2 inch vertical, with 39 reps of 225 lbs.
Stats on the year: 44 tackles, 6 TFL, 1.5 sacks[/b]

4. Zach Taylor-DT-Auburn
At 6-2 299, he clocked a 4.79 forty time, had a 33 1/2 inch vertical, nearly an 11-foot broad jump, and 27 reps of 225.
Stats on the year: 28 tackles, 8 TFL, 1 sack

Not familiar with the player, but I there aren't to many 5-11 defensive linemen that make it in the NFL are there?