Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by ChaunceyGardner:
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
I cant speak for MD, but for myself Texas. I see atleast the big 4 going top 45, then Ponder and Dalton could find there way into the late 2nd.
Im warming up to Newton, I still am sketchy on Gabbert.
But I can see Gabbert at 1 to CAR, Newton at 4 or 5, Locker to SEA and Mallett at begining of rd 2 to Buffalo.
Ponder maybe to us depending on rd 1.
But of course like MD said lots of smoke and mirrors right now.
Honestly tho, and a bit off topic, Myself, MD and OTC and Ghost i believe are the most knowledgable guys on the zone. Draft wise its MD and OTC, player wise my boy Ghost, then myself with the Cap.
So, i think we are blessed to have 3 great guys, and then little ole me, lol. Alot better than McShay and Kiper. lol.
If I had to guess, MD's answer on why he's got 7 QB's going in the top 50 would have to do with "inflationary value" due to high demand for the position this year compared to years in the past. I don't think it's unfeasible, especially this year with no ability to sign or trade for players prior to the draft taking place. That's really the underlying cause of that extreme demand.
One question one might ask is: What team is willing to take the risk of drafting no QB, and then not being able to land who they wanted via trade?
Are the 49ers willing to take that risk? I think not.
The number of teams that really need, or want, a QB seems incredible.
1. 49ers (need)
2. Cardinals (need)
3.Seahawks (need, well,maybe just a want this year)
4. Panthers (need)
5. Bills (need)
6. Bengals (need. Palmer is not just talking)
7. Titans (need)
8. Vikings (not sure, think it is a need)
9. Dolphins (big want)
10. Redskins (need)
Combine the need with the free agency put off until God knows when.
The Bengals might not be willing to trade Palmer.
The Eagles are going to ask for an arm and the next born child for Kolb.
If you like Alex Smith, and many do, be happy for him.
He is going to get a good deal in free agency!!!!!
And those are just the teams that need a starter. Even the Patriots have a private workout lined up for Andy Dalton so even the elite teams with QB's are looking to take one to groom to be the next guy or backup.
The league has about a third of their teams with nobody worthy of a starting position and no long-range franchise QB, and that really creates a demand to find the next guy.
Even teams like the Colts and Pats need to begin the process of grooming a next QB, as the play of Manning (he's starting his 14th year) and Brady (starting his 12th year) may not be at the same level in 3 years or so, while their salaries will be astronomical.
So, while many 49ers fans are disappointed with Alex Smith, I always remind people to think about other franchises, who are in much worse shape. Teams like Miami with Chad Henne, Minnesota with Jackson, Carolina with Clausen, Arizona with Skelton, Tennessee with Young, and the list goes on and on. Smith could possibly be the top free agent QB on the market this year, and would be an immediate starter for about 8-10 teams in the NFL.
Here is what I keep coming back to with that analysis: You are right about Alex. He's not the worst in the world. He's sort of an ok, at least borderline starter. And in the right environment he may be more successful. Of course, he may not. But that's not the point.
Let's assume he IS the best FA QB on the market and that he won't be significantly better or worse than he has been.
So, in FA the best you can do is get an Alex Smith or maybe if they get cut, a Mcnabb, Young or maybe Orton or Kolb via trade. In the draft, odds are only two QBs at most will be better than that. In any draft class, there usually aren't more than two QBs who are pro-bowl or franchise QBs. There are exceptions where there are more or none. But usually two, MAYBE three would be the most a class produces. And it's not a given that there will be any.
Other than that, you will likely get an "Alex Smith/Chad Henne" level player at best with the second tier QBs. Whomever they are. Let's assume one of the "first rounder" and one later round picks turn out to be the studs in this draft.
Then odds are, one of the top QBs will bust. Most of the later round QBs will be career clipboard holders or worse. And two or three will be solid backup to borderline starter types.
That is certainly about what to expect from any QB draft class.
And as we know, unless something gets resolved quickly, the odds are rookies won't get a chance to compete for starting jobs this year because they will have a limited off season.
So, why is drafting a rookie a better or lesser risk than FA or trade? And why would teams forgo BPA in an otherwise deep draft class to draft someone who at best might be an Alex Smith/Kyle Orton/Kevin Kolb, when those guys exist in the NFL and are at least known commodities?
Maybe I'm beating a dead horse and we'll just see in a month. But I just don't see the upside to this rookie class or rookie QBs being any more or less of a risk than FA/trades because of the off-season issues.
Both have tremendous uncertainty and both have a pretty lackluster crop of QBs available.
In a way though, I hope it happens and that we avoid the fray. JH supposedly has evaluated talent others had as later round QBs who he pegged as players who could be successful in the NFL. Hopefully he can do this again, let his QB come to him in the 3rd or 4th and if all the other teams gobbled up QBs super-early, then we get better players at other positions early and are in a good position to sign/trade for vet once those other teams have invested early picks and money on QBs already.
