NFC West Play-off scenarios

With 3 games to play, I thought it would be helpful to look at the playoff implications.

49ers: Will win the NFC West if they win the final 3 games AND Seattle loses at least one game. The 49ers need help to get into the playoffs, but another Seattle loss is likely.
Seattle: Will win the NFC West if they win their final 3 games
St Louis: Will win the NFC West if they win their final 3 games

Looking at the schedule, let's identify "likely" losses

49ers lose to San Diego
Seattle loses to Atlanta and Tampa Bay
St Louis loses to KC

Toss Up: Seattle versus St Louis

If the likely losses occur, and the 49ers beat St Louis (which is definitely not a given) and Arizona, then the 49ers will win the NFC West. But it only takes one upset to change that scenario. If the 49ers want to be able to control their destiny and not depend on other teams losing (except for Seattle), then they need to win against San Diego, and of course, put away Arizona. The 49ers game against St Louis (in St Louis) is a must win game for the 49ers. If they lose that game, it may still be possible to win the division, but it would be much more difficult.

Ahh San Diego. It was translated by scholars to literally mean "Whale's Vagina"

Originally posted by fryet:
With 3 games to play, I thought it would be helpful to look at the playoff implications.

49ers: Will win the NFC West if they win the final 3 games AND Seattle loses at least one game. The 49ers need help to get into the playoffs, but another Seattle loss is likely.
Seattle: Will win the NFC West if they win their final 3 games
St Louis: Will win the NFC West if they win their final 3 games

Looking at the schedule, let's identify "likely" losses

49ers lose to San Diego
Seattle loses to Atlanta and Tampa Bay
St Louis loses to KC

Toss Up: Seattle versus St Louis

If the likely losses occur, and the 49ers beat St Louis (which is definitely not a given) and Arizona, then the 49ers will win the NFC West. But it only takes one upset to change that scenario. If the 49ers want to be able to control their destiny and not depend on other teams losing (except for Seattle), then they need to win against San Diego, and of course, put away Arizona. The 49ers game against St Louis (in St Louis) is a must win game for the 49ers. If they lose that game, it may still be possible to win the division, but it would be much more difficult.

STL is not losing to KC, unless Cassel plays next week. If he doesn't then i'm 99% sure they will win.

If St Louis beats KC, then we either need to be San Diego, or hope that Seattle can beat St Louis in Week 17. I do agree that the KC game is the most likely upset to happen.

Yea it's way to hard to call these "likely" wins and loses. I mean we just seen the Niners embarrassed a Seattle team that previously embarrassed the Niners. niners dominate Cardinals and lose to the Saints, but the Cardinals beat the Saints. Just a few weeks ago they couldn't run the ball on TB who had the worse run defense and one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL. Yesterday the Skins back up has over 100 yards in the 1st quarter. Things are just to unpredictable especially with this team. Just gonna have to hope the niners can win out and watch week by week to see if other teams lose. Nothing worse then having to bet on other teams to lose, but it's where we are as a fan base.

Cassel is going to play. Not for a second KC will take the chance of losing their playoff chances by playing Croyle.

Cassel doesn't need too much rest from his surgery

Originally posted by fryet:
If St Louis beats KC, then we either need to be San Diego, or hope that Seattle can beat St Louis in Week 17. I do agree that the KC game is the most likely upset to happen.

Its depressing but yeah I think STL will beat KC. I also think, given the fact that we couldnt pull away from STL at home, and couldnt stop bradford in the secondary, they might get us when we go to STL.

Originally posted by lamontb:
Yea it's way to hard to call these "likely" wins and loses. I mean we just seen the Niners embarrassed a Seattle team that previously embarrassed the Niners. niners dominate Cardinals and lose to the Saints, but the Cardinals beat the Saints. Just a few weeks ago they couldn't run the ball on TB who had the worse run defense and one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL. Yesterday the Skins back up has over 100 yards in the 1st quarter. Things are just to unpredictable especially with this team. Just gonna have to hope the niners can win out and watch week by week to see if other teams lose. Nothing worse then having to bet on other teams to lose, but it's where we are as a fan base.

Yes, the 49ers chances are much better if they beat San Diego. But I think it also helps to look at the strength of schedule to get an idea to see who has the best chance of winning. I think St Louis probably has the best chance of winning the division, and Seattle has the worst, as they are going to finish the season with 3 tough games.

Originally posted by ApatheticIAm:
Ahh San Diego. It was translated by scholars to literally mean "Whale's Vagina"

Originally posted by ApatheticIAm:
Ahh San Diego. It was translated by scholars to literally mean "Whale's Vagina"

I believe the right pronunciation is San Diago with the emphasis on the "a."

THINK kc IS GUNNA wax THE RAMSthey have to win. KC in my opinion was the most well prepared team we faced all season.

If the 9ers don't win out they don't belong in the playoffs. No team with a losing record should be allowed to go when 2 or 3 teams with better records sit on the couch and ask WTF? It lowers the bar for the entire league and overshadows the fact that Sing sucks.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by ApatheticIAm:
Ahh San Diego. It was translated by scholars to literally mean "Whale's Vagina"

- Actually, I believe it was named after SAINT Diego..
- Agree to disagree

yeah honestly, Sea wont win another game all season 6-10 record.

It would be great to beat SD and win out, but I dont see us winning thurs.

STL prob wont beat the chiefs. Cassel will be back and Jamal Charles will run all over them!

Might as well add more fuel to this fire.

If you believe in NFL conspiracies then we NEED to beat San Diego.

With all the complaints about a 7-9 team potentially winning the NFC there is potential the NFL might intervene to make sure 8+ wins take the NFC West.

If the 49ers don't beat San Diego (with or without help from the refs) the only realistic hope for an NFC West team to avoid 7-9 will be the RAMS.

It would not surprise me if the RAMS got a little help from favorable calls in the games against KC and SF.

The Seahawks won't get calls b/c they still have the darling SB champ Saints on their schedule and the Saints are in a dog fight for a playoff spot.

On the otherhand...if we beat San Diego I wouldn't be surprised if we get some favorable calls against the RAMS to help us secure an acceptable 8-8 record and division title.

/removes tin foil hat