NBA Finals Thread: Mavs are NBA Champions! :O

Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:
Okay, my predictions for the finals (since I've been so accurate with my picks so far in the NBA playoffs...lol uhh Portland, f**k YOU)

Heat will give Mavs the same problems OKC gave Dallas with their speed and athleticism but won't falter late in the 4th quarter and Heat actually plays man-defense. With Haslem, Bosh, and Lebron - Heat does have some decent options to throw at Dirk to slow him enough so he doesn't have 35-40pt games, but not sure if Mavs have anyone to stop Lebron or Wade. Even if Dirks goes off, Miami can shut down other guys.

In my opinion, Miami needs to play big in the back-court (Wade, Miller, and Lebron). This will make it tough for the Mavs to play Terry and J-Kidd together, or play Barea for extended minutes.

This is an intriguing match-up, because coaches will have a big say in this series. I think Spols has proven to be a very good coach, and Rick had already established himself as a good coach earlier in the decade. Should be a close one, with several close games - but Miami with HC will be too much. Miami takes it in 6.

That's probably the prediction that I'd go with too. After Miami beat Boston handily, I was pretty sure that they were going to beat the Bulls, because they were a similar team stylistically, although I thought it'd go an extra game.

In this series, I can't think of a single scenario where I'd feel confident about the prediction. You could tell me that Miami is going to kick the living crap outta Dallas, vice versa, or any scenario in between, and I couldn't say that it was outta the realm of possibility.

The unpredictability comes from the fact that Miami hasn't faced an offense that's similar stylistically to Dallas. OKC is kinda sorta similar to Miami in that they're extremely athletic, but they didn't play very good defense all that often during these playoffs, so I don't think that Dallas has faced anything like Miami's defense.

FWIW, I don't think this format is as detrimental to Dallas as you do. It's funny...road record is usually one of the stronger predictors of playoff success, and this year was no different. Both Miami & Dallas went 28-13 on the road this year...tied for best in the league. This has also carried over into the playoffs, with Dallas going 5-2 and Miami going 5-3. I think HCA and the 2-3-2 format means less in this series than it normally does.

Miami wins it - I think they can stick LeBron on Dirk and give him problems. Historically quick, athletic defenders who can get a hand in Dirk's face have had the best success defending him - Marion and Bowen come to mind.

I don't see anyone on Dallas' roster that can guard Wade effectively.

Originally posted by LA9erFan:

Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:
Okay, my predictions for the finals (since I've been so accurate with my picks so far in the NBA playoffs...lol uhh Portland, f**k YOU)

Heat will give Mavs the same problems OKC gave Dallas with their speed and athleticism but won't falter late in the 4th quarter and Heat actually plays man-defense. With Haslem, Bosh, and Lebron - Heat does have some decent options to throw at Dirk to slow him enough so he doesn't have 35-40pt games, but not sure if Mavs have anyone to stop Lebron or Wade. Even if Dirks goes off, Miami can shut down other guys.

In my opinion, Miami needs to play big in the back-court (Wade, Miller, and Lebron). This will make it tough for the Mavs to play Terry and J-Kidd together, or play Barea for extended minutes.

This is an intriguing match-up, because coaches will have a big say in this series. I think Spols has proven to be a very good coach, and Rick had already established himself as a good coach earlier in the decade. Should be a close one, with several close games - but Miami with HC will be too much. Miami takes it in 6.

That's probably the prediction that I'd go with too. After Miami beat Boston handily, I was pretty sure that they were going to beat the Bulls, because they were a similar team stylistically, although I thought it'd go an extra game.

In this series, I can't think of a single scenario where I'd feel confident about the prediction. You could tell me that Miami is going to kick the living crap outta Dallas, vice versa, or any scenario in between, and I couldn't say that it was outta the realm of possibility.

The unpredictability comes from the fact that Miami hasn't faced an offense that's similar stylistically to Dallas. OKC is kinda sorta similar to Miami in that they're extremely athletic, but they didn't play very good defense all that often during these playoffs, so I don't think that Dallas has faced anything like Miami's defense.

FWIW, I don't think this format is as detrimental to Dallas as you do. It's funny...road record is usually one of the stronger predictors of playoff success, and this year was no different. Both Miami & Dallas went 28-13 on the road this year...tied for best in the league. This has also carried over into the playoffs, with Dallas going 5-2 and Miami going 5-3. I think HCA and the 2-3-2 format means less in this series than it normally does.

I go back to when MIA played the Spurs the last two games. The first one, they got embarrassed but the Spurs were hitting the threes and MIA was lazy on the close-out. The second time, MIA "D'd" it up and closed out the three point shooters to turn it around and embarrass the Spurs.

Dallas is different in that they have Dirk and are more traditional/medium inside out game whereas Spurs are more penetration/kick and cycle the ball around the arc but I have a feeling the spots on the court Dirk likes to handle the ball from give MIA an advantage. They are fast in help and getting back as it is and now the ball will be in the mid-range which makes it easier for them to help and get back. If Dirk is finding the skip-pass, then Dallas may get more open shots but MIA is good against that also. On top of that, when helping, James and Wade both have the ability to block Dirk's shot.

I still think the most interesting thing will be second chance points. Tyson Chandler has improved this Dallas team more than anyone. Dirk's great play aside.

Originally posted by TheSixthRing:
Miami wins it - I think they can stick LeBron on Dirk and give him problems. Historically quick, athletic defenders who can get a hand in Dirk's face have had the best success defending him - Marion and Bowen come to mind.

I don't see anyone on Dallas' roster that can guard Wade effectively.

Ya, I think Stevenson & Marion are more equipped to deal with LeBron than Wade, and Kidd is too slow at his age to be able to contain Wade.

I like Dirk and wouldn't mind seeing him get a ring, but I just can't being myself to root for a team from Dallas. I really think this could go either way which is something I haven't thought of the NBA finals in several years. Purely on gut, I'm picking Dallas in 7. They just seem to have that thing this year.

Originally posted by LA9erFan:

Originally posted by TheSixthRing:
Miami wins it - I think they can stick LeBron on Dirk and give him problems. Historically quick, athletic defenders who can get a hand in Dirk's face have had the best success defending him - Marion and Bowen come to mind.

I don't see anyone on Dallas' roster that can guard Wade effectively.

Ya, I think Stevenson & Marion are more equipped to deal with LeBron than Wade, and Kidd is too slow at his age to be able to contain Wade.

thats why i think not having caron butler is huge, hes not an all world defender but hes a damn good player who coulda really helped them

Originally posted by crabman82:

Originally posted by LA9erFan:

Originally posted by TheSixthRing:
Miami wins it - I think they can stick LeBron on Dirk and give him problems. Historically quick, athletic defenders who can get a hand in Dirk's face have had the best success defending him - Marion and Bowen come to mind.

I don't see anyone on Dallas' roster that can guard Wade effectively.

Ya, I think Stevenson & Marion are more equipped to deal with LeBron than Wade, and Kidd is too slow at his age to be able to contain Wade.

thats why i think not having caron butler is huge, hes not an all world defender but hes a damn good player who coulda really helped them

He certainly could have given them more options, like sticking him on LeBron and trying Marion on Wade.

Go Mavs

Originally posted by crabman82:

Originally posted by LA9erFan:

Originally posted by TheSixthRing:
Miami wins it - I think they can stick LeBron on Dirk and give him problems. Historically quick, athletic defenders who can get a hand in Dirk's face have had the best success defending him - Marion and Bowen come to mind.

I don't see anyone on Dallas' roster that can guard Wade effectively.

Ya, I think Stevenson & Marion are more equipped to deal with LeBron than Wade, and Kidd is too slow at his age to be able to contain Wade.

thats why i think not having caron butler is huge, hes not an all world defender but hes a damn good player who coulda really helped them

Agreed. I'm not a big Butler fan, but he woulda given them some more options, as Sixth said.

Originally posted by AmpLee:
Conversely, I think a huge mismatch for Dallas to exploit is Barea. No one can really guard him anyway, but certainly no one on Miami's roster. An instant offense guy like him might be huge in low scoring series. I think he needs to get big minutes off the bench.

Spoelstra feels the same way. He's actually talked about putting LeBron on him.

Originally posted by Dino:
Go Mavs

Meet Jason Kidd

Originally posted by AmpLee:

Originally posted by LA9erFan:

Originally posted by AmpLee:
Conversely, I think a huge mismatch for Dallas to exploit is Barea. No one can really guard him anyway, but certainly no one on Miami's roster. An instant offense guy like him might be huge in low scoring series. I think he needs to get big minutes off the bench.

Spoelstra feels the same way. He's actually talked about putting LeBron on him.

The defensive matchups in this series will be very interesting to watch. I know we've heard a lot about Lebron and Bosh guarding Dirk, but I think Haslem is the dark horse to do the best job. He might be the Nick Collison of this series and score himself some big minutes as the series progresses.

I can definitely see that with Haslem. He did a great job on Dirk in '06, although Dirk's been a different animal in these playoffs. I initially thought that LeBron on Dirk would be a waste of LeBron's defensive talents, but the more I think about it, the more I could see it. Not because he could effect Dirk's shot, but because he's pretty well equipped to deny Dirk the ball in the first place. But ya, this is gonna be very interesting.

Originally posted by LA9erFan:

Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:
Okay, my predictions for the finals (since I've been so accurate with my picks so far in the NBA playoffs...lol uhh Portland, f**k YOU)

Heat will give Mavs the same problems OKC gave Dallas with their speed and athleticism but won't falter late in the 4th quarter and Heat actually plays man-defense. With Haslem, Bosh, and Lebron - Heat does have some decent options to throw at Dirk to slow him enough so he doesn't have 35-40pt games, but not sure if Mavs have anyone to stop Lebron or Wade. Even if Dirks goes off, Miami can shut down other guys.

In my opinion, Miami needs to play big in the back-court (Wade, Miller, and Lebron). This will make it tough for the Mavs to play Terry and J-Kidd together, or play Barea for extended minutes.

This is an intriguing match-up, because coaches will have a big say in this series. I think Spols has proven to be a very good coach, and Rick had already established himself as a good coach earlier in the decade. Should be a close one, with several close games - but Miami with HC will be too much. Miami takes it in 6.

That's probably the prediction that I'd go with too. After Miami beat Boston handily, I was pretty sure that they were going to beat the Bulls, because they were a similar team stylistically, although I thought it'd go an extra game.

In this series, I can't think of a single scenario where I'd feel confident about the prediction. You could tell me that Miami is going to kick the living crap outta Dallas, vice versa, or any scenario in between, and I couldn't say that it was outta the realm of possibility.

The unpredictability comes from the fact that Miami hasn't faced an offense that's similar stylistically to Dallas. OKC is kinda sorta similar to Miami in that they're extremely athletic, but they didn't play very good defense all that often during these playoffs, so I don't think that Dallas has faced anything like Miami's defense.

FWIW, I don't think this format is as detrimental to Dallas as you do. It's funny...road record is usually one of the stronger predictors of playoff success, and this year was no different. Both Miami & Dallas went 28-13 on the road this year...tied for best in the league. This has also carried over into the playoffs, with Dallas going 5-2 and Miami going 5-3. I think HCA and the 2-3-2 format means less in this series than it normally does.

Yeup, even though I picked Heat in 6 games - I don't feel comfortable with it. I just went with what made the most sense, but this series could go anyway - especially with the way Dirk and Lebron are playing. A less than 75% Wade changes things in favor of Dallas though.

I agree that both the finalists have great road record, but Miami is unbeaten at home so far, and you have very little chance as a lower seed if you don't split the first two. Of course, Miami in 06 won after losing the first two, but it was an exception.

As you know, it is very very tough to beat a team 3 straight games, so any team with 3 straight home games is pretty much guaranteed to lose 1 at home. Of course, Dallas can and should get the split, but since they are very likely to lose 1 at home, they will lose the advantage they worked so hard to gain in the 1st two games. I don't know if I'm making any sense, I just find this format to be very unfair to the lower seed.

Dallas and Miami aren't even that far away from each other. Why can't they keep it flexible? If Boston and LA are in the finals - fine - go with 2-3-2 to cut down the travel time for the players...but with Dallas and Miami playing...go with the old school scheduling of 2-2-1-1-1

Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:

Originally posted by LA9erFan:

Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:
Okay, my predictions for the finals (since I've been so accurate with my picks so far in the NBA playoffs...lol uhh Portland, f**k YOU)

Heat will give Mavs the same problems OKC gave Dallas with their speed and athleticism but won't falter late in the 4th quarter and Heat actually plays man-defense. With Haslem, Bosh, and Lebron - Heat does have some decent options to throw at Dirk to slow him enough so he doesn't have 35-40pt games, but not sure if Mavs have anyone to stop Lebron or Wade. Even if Dirks goes off, Miami can shut down other guys.

In my opinion, Miami needs to play big in the back-court (Wade, Miller, and Lebron). This will make it tough for the Mavs to play Terry and J-Kidd together, or play Barea for extended minutes.

This is an intriguing match-up, because coaches will have a big say in this series. I think Spols has proven to be a very good coach, and Rick had already established himself as a good coach earlier in the decade. Should be a close one, with several close games - but Miami with HC will be too much. Miami takes it in 6.

That's probably the prediction that I'd go with too. After Miami beat Boston handily, I was pretty sure that they were going to beat the Bulls, because they were a similar team stylistically, although I thought it'd go an extra game.

In this series, I can't think of a single scenario where I'd feel confident about the prediction. You could tell me that Miami is going to kick the living crap outta Dallas, vice versa, or any scenario in between, and I couldn't say that it was outta the realm of possibility.

The unpredictability comes from the fact that Miami hasn't faced an offense that's similar stylistically to Dallas. OKC is kinda sorta similar to Miami in that they're extremely athletic, but they didn't play very good defense all that often during these playoffs, so I don't think that Dallas has faced anything like Miami's defense.

FWIW, I don't think this format is as detrimental to Dallas as you do. It's funny...road record is usually one of the stronger predictors of playoff success, and this year was no different. Both Miami & Dallas went 28-13 on the road this year...tied for best in the league. This has also carried over into the playoffs, with Dallas going 5-2 and Miami going 5-3. I think HCA and the 2-3-2 format means less in this series than it normally does.

Yeup, even though I picked Heat in 6 games - I don't feel comfortable with it. I just went with what made the most sense, but this series could go anyway - especially with the way Dirk and Lebron are playing. A less than 75% Wade changes things in favor of Dallas though.

I agree that both the finalists have great road record, but Miami is unbeaten at home so far, and you have very little chance as a lower seed if you don't split the first two. Of course, Miami in 06 won after losing the first two, but it was an exception.

As you know, it is very very tough to beat a team 3 straight games, so any team with 3 straight home games is pretty much guaranteed to lose 1 at home. Of course, Dallas can and should get the split, but since they are very likely to lose 1 at home, they will lose the advantage they worked so hard to gain in the 1st two games. I don't know if I'm making any sense, I just find this format to be very unfair to the lower seed.

Dallas and Miami aren't even that far away from each other. Why can't they keep it flexible? If Boston and LA are in the finals - fine - go with 2-3-2 to cut down the travel time for the players...but with Dallas and Miami playing...go with the old school scheduling of 2-2-1-1-1

Eff it! They should just go 1-1-1-1-1-1-1