Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:
Okay, my predictions for the finals (since I've been so accurate with my picks so far in the NBA playoffs...lol uhh Portland, f**k YOU)
Heat will give Mavs the same problems OKC gave Dallas with their speed and athleticism but won't falter late in the 4th quarter and Heat actually plays man-defense. With Haslem, Bosh, and Lebron - Heat does have some decent options to throw at Dirk to slow him enough so he doesn't have 35-40pt games, but not sure if Mavs have anyone to stop Lebron or Wade. Even if Dirks goes off, Miami can shut down other guys.
In my opinion, Miami needs to play big in the back-court (Wade, Miller, and Lebron). This will make it tough for the Mavs to play Terry and J-Kidd together, or play Barea for extended minutes.
This is an intriguing match-up, because coaches will have a big say in this series. I think Spols has proven to be a very good coach, and Rick had already established himself as a good coach earlier in the decade. Should be a close one, with several close games - but Miami with HC will be too much. Miami takes it in 6.
That's probably the prediction that I'd go with too. After Miami beat Boston handily, I was pretty sure that they were going to beat the Bulls, because they were a similar team stylistically, although I thought it'd go an extra game.
In this series, I can't think of a single scenario where I'd feel confident about the prediction. You could tell me that Miami is going to kick the living crap outta Dallas, vice versa, or any scenario in between, and I couldn't say that it was outta the realm of possibility.
The unpredictability comes from the fact that Miami hasn't faced an offense that's similar stylistically to Dallas. OKC is kinda sorta similar to Miami in that they're extremely athletic, but they didn't play very good defense all that often during these playoffs, so I don't think that Dallas has faced anything like Miami's defense.
FWIW, I don't think this format is as detrimental to Dallas as you do. It's funny...road record is usually one of the stronger predictors of playoff success, and this year was no different. Both Miami & Dallas went 28-13 on the road this year...tied for best in the league. This has also carried over into the playoffs, with Dallas going 5-2 and Miami going 5-3. I think HCA and the 2-3-2 format means less in this series than it normally does.
[ Edited by LA9erFan on May 31, 2011 at 9:33 AM ]