Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by thl408:
These types of plays (one primary receiving option) are run several times throughout the game by Roman on critical downs. Most of the time, they work beautifully. This is not the type of play where you can penalize Kap for being a one read QB since the play design calls for only one option to be looked to. NC, I agree with you when you say this is the anti-WCO. To me, a staple of the WCO are the passes to RBs as an extension of the run game. This does not exist in the current Roman offense.
Regarding these plays where only one read is needed to be made, I call it great formation/play design. Two traits of a great offensive play is being simple to execute, and effectiveness (it works). Roman runs these plays out of several formations with different variations. Sometimes the primary receiver runs an In route, sometimes a short out route. Either way, you can see it coming when it's 3rd and long with bunch WRs to one side of the formation. The bunching is to prevent the press and jam at the line of scrimmage. I did not see how SEA stopped this, but I don't doubt your observation regarding how SEA defended this play.
I don't think Kap is a one read QB, but I do think he stares down his read for too long before moving on to the next read. The game is fast for him right now and only experience will slow the game down. He can study his ass off in the film room and all it might do is make him think more once the ball is snapped.
About WRs not getting separation, from my amateur analysis, I do not think they are getting consistent separation. This includes Boldin. Baldwin is slow making cuts, Williams gets re-rerouted with a one arm shove. Moore, I don't even notice him on the field.
GB played zone too many times, while gearing up to play the run, and got torched.
SEA played press man and did it very well while bringing pressure with 4 rushers.
IND copied SEA and Roman continued to try throwing downfield to WRs who were not getting open. Kap also began showing a lot of impatience in the pocket in this game.
HOU did the same as SEA, but sent 5 pass rushers on nearly every pass play, forcing Kap to make quick decisions. Can't make too many reads when the pressure is coming.
ARI copied HOU.
Straight up, Kap is not good enough right now to consistently beat the blitz, but he is getting better. He is identifying the 1 on 1 matchup he likes, pre-snap, and is not hesitant in going there. This was evident on the VD touchdown with 2 minutes left (1st half) in the ARI game.
Very nice post! I'm really glad you brought up 3rd downs for a couple reasons. First. you are spot on in that my observations are that that is exactly when we run the annointed receiver routes the most as well (as referenced in the video I provided). And two, we are in 3rd and longs a ton (so it appears). But it's not b/c of failure on 2nd down. It's d/t an inability to "scheme" positive yards on 1st down. Our first down production has been horrendous under both QB's. If we get 4+ yards on first down, that is critically successful for our offense b/c we can then run or pass on 2nd down (or even fail) and still be in a manageable 3rd down. Most importantly, it takes away from the predictability for the defense. How often are we in 2nd and 15 or 2nd and 10? A lot...this clearly was an issue under Alex's tenure as well (although the media can still only focus on the 1 for 13 on 3rd downs in the NFCCG...it was the lack of production on first down that played right into the Giants pass rush/strength on 2nd and 3rd downs). Rhythm? Our offense has seemed "spotty" in rhythm since day 1...when were we flowing on offense in both phases of the game in tandem? It seems fragmented, like how the game plans are derived.
Do you think there are hot reads in this offense? B/c CK is often times in the shotgun (gives him that extra second) it seems to me that many of the annointed receiver pre-determined passing plays are designed/schemed to hit that pass in under 3 seconds decreasing the likelihood of a sack.
I do agree that when Roman schemes properly, college-offense or not, it's hard to stop. In fact, one of the commentators said the same thing on one of these plays. How do you stop it..it's like a screen pass...you have WR's already down field blocking as the underneath WR catches it for RAC (think we got a 1st and goal at the 1 or even a TD?).
Now, in my ideal world, we'd run a WCO primarly and have many of these annointed receiver passing plays built into it esp. on 3rd downs. This would get EVERYONE involved and players such as Gore, Hunter and McDonald would be better utilized in both the passing and run game and most importantly, it would help CK out a ton b/c he'd always have a passing outlet. We have far too much talent being wasted here IMHO.
I do not think there are hot reads on every pass play, another staple of a WCO that is missing. With ARI and HOU coming with pressure on nearly every pass play, Roman mostly opted to keep Gore in to block rather than leaking him out. Instead of getting the ball out quickly, Roman chooses to beef up protection and hit targets downfield. I'm not implying it's the wrong thing to do, but Roman, true to form, goes for the explosive pass play. He could mix in a few RB flare routes and hope to get Hunter or LMJ in space as the blitz is coming. Suck the pressure in then leak out a RB into open space for a little swing pass. Yeah right...
I agree that there is some under utilized talent that Roman should tap into. I am sounding like a broken record here, but passes to the RBs in the shallow flats can open up other parts of the field. Right now, there is no reason to cover the RBs in the flats, or the RB at all unless his name is Miller. I am not implying he should go all Alex Smith up in this offense, but forcing the defense to cover the entire field (width and length) is the best thing an offense can do to help itself.
One might wonder why don't all defenses play press man if it's so difficult to beat. It's not difficult to beat if you have a confident, or willing, QB that throws WRs open. Throwing WRs open is THE way to beat tight press man coverage in a 1 on 1 scenario lined out wide. There are only a handful of CBs in the league that can stay on a WR's hip pocket for 4 seconds. Once/if Crabs comes back and gets into playing shape, defenses will not be able to continue going press man nearly 90% of the time. Kap has confidence in Crabs to throw him open. Crabs has the catch radius and body control to position himself where only he can make a play on the ball.
You are spot on in bringing up tough 3rd downs. So many times the 49ers are in 3rd and long. At the start of the year, it was many times due to penalties. But it's not just penalties, it's also the unproductive 1st down passes. Just echoing what you posted above. First downs should be used for running or short positive passing gains to set up the rest of the set of downs.