My Mock Outlook to 2014 and 2015 Cap Wise

Info as per overthecap.com

Name Team TotalValue APY Guarantee
Aaron Rodgers Packers $110,000,000 $22,000,000 $54,000,000
Matt Ryan Falcons $103,750,000 $20,750,000 $42,000,000
Joe Flacco Ravens $120,600,000 $20,100,000 $29,000,000
Drew Brees Saints $100,000,000 $20,000,000 $40,000,000
Peyton Manning Broncos $96,000,000 $19,200,000 $18,000,000
Tony Romo Cowboys $108,000,000 $18,000,000 $40,000,000
Matt Stafford Lions $53,000,000 $17,666,667 $41,500,000
Eli Manning Giants $97,500,000 $16,250,000 $35,000,000
Matt Schaub Texans $62,000,000 $15,500,000 $29,150,000
Philip Rivers Chargers $91,800,000 $15,300,000 $38,150,000
Jay Cutler Bears $29,337,500 $14,668,750 $20,000,000
Ben Roethlisberger Steelers $87,986,500 $14,664,417 $33,200,000
Mark Sanchez Jets $40,475,000 $13,491,667 $19,250,000
Sam Bradford Rams $78,000,000 $13,000,000 $50,000,000
Colin Kaepernick 49ers $5,124,296 $1,281,074 $3,800,000

Originally posted by Young2Rice4TD:
I don't think Gore, Dorsey, and Manningham will be with us in 2016. Our strategy has always been to let guys like that go when we find cheaper replacements (see Morgan-Manningham or Franklin-Sopagoa-Dorsey or Harrison-Lemonier or Goldson-Reid or Walker-McDonald or Synder-Boone).

I think we keep Kap, our LB core, Vernon, Vance, Andy Lee, Reid, Cully, Patton, Lattimore, and our OL. Everyone else is potentially on the chopping block.

Miller, Ray McD,, Crabs, Ian Williams too.

Originally posted by bALLSOhARD:
Info as per overthecap.com

Name Team TotalValue APY Guarantee
Aaron Rodgers Packers $110,000,000 $22,000,000 $54,000,000
Matt Ryan Falcons $103,750,000 $20,750,000 $42,000,000
Joe Flacco Ravens $120,600,000 $20,100,000 $29,000,000
Drew Brees Saints $100,000,000 $20,000,000 $40,000,000
Peyton Manning Broncos $96,000,000 $19,200,000 $18,000,000
Tony Romo Cowboys $108,000,000 $18,000,000 $40,000,000
Matt Stafford Lions $53,000,000 $17,666,667 $41,500,000
Eli Manning Giants $97,500,000 $16,250,000 $35,000,000
Matt Schaub Texans $62,000,000 $15,500,000 $29,150,000
Philip Rivers Chargers $91,800,000 $15,300,000 $38,150,000
Jay Cutler Bears $29,337,500 $14,668,750 $20,000,000
Ben Roethlisberger Steelers $87,986,500 $14,664,417 $33,200,000
Mark Sanchez Jets $40,475,000 $13,491,667 $19,250,000
Sam Bradford Rams $78,000,000 $13,000,000 $50,000,000
Colin Kaepernick 49ers $5,124,296 $1,281,074 $3,800,000

Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Extended Kap - 6yr $90M extension on top of his last year ($20M signing bonus)

I posted this info to say anybody who thinks Kap is gonna sign a contract that pays less than 100m and at least 50m guaranteed is respectfully trippin! Look at that list!

Originally posted by bALLSOhARD:

Originally posted by bALLSOhARD:
Info as per overthecap.com

Name Team TotalValue APY Guarantee
Aaron Rodgers Packers $110,000,000 $22,000,000 $54,000,000
Matt Ryan Falcons $103,750,000 $20,750,000 $42,000,000
Joe Flacco Ravens $120,600,000 $20,100,000 $29,000,000
Drew Brees Saints $100,000,000 $20,000,000 $40,000,000
Peyton Manning Broncos $96,000,000 $19,200,000 $18,000,000
Tony Romo Cowboys $108,000,000 $18,000,000 $40,000,000
Matt Stafford Lions $53,000,000 $17,666,667 $41,500,000
Eli Manning Giants $97,500,000 $16,250,000 $35,000,000
Matt Schaub Texans $62,000,000 $15,500,000 $29,150,000
Philip Rivers Chargers $91,800,000 $15,300,000 $38,150,000
Jay Cutler Bears $29,337,500 $14,668,750 $20,000,000
Ben Roethlisberger Steelers $87,986,500 $14,664,417 $33,200,000
Mark Sanchez Jets $40,475,000 $13,491,667 $19,250,000
Sam Bradford Rams $78,000,000 $13,000,000 $50,000,000
Colin Kaepernick 49ers $5,124,296 $1,281,074 $3,800,000

Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Extended Kap - 6yr $90M extension on top of his last year ($20M signing bonus)

I posted this info to say anybody who thinks Kap is gonna sign a contract that pays less than 100m and at least 50m guaranteed is respectfully trippin! Look at that list!

Well I think after re evaluation, this is tearing up the last year of his contract and giving him a raise. He is slated to make 1.2 million in 2014. So in theory if they give him a big signing bonus, they might be able to get a 6 year 110 million dollar deal, assuming they want to use the leverage they could make him play out 2014, Franchise him in 2015 and 2016, which would be a 3 year 45 million dollar contract with no guaranteed money.

2014- last year of contract- 1.2 million
2015- Franchise tag 20 million
2016 franchise tag 24 million.

So maybe the Niners do have some leverage, and Kaep loves the niners and the bay area. I still do not see him giving anyone a sweetheart deal below 2 million off of top dollar, and that is only because the niners payed him a year early.

I am like Deon Sanders for CK7, Pay the man.

we're screwed HARD.


Good bye good team.....

Brian,
Romo is a terrific athlete, a 1 handicap golfer, a really good basketball player, throws a beautiful pass....but has been to but 1 playoff game in his lengthy career, and has won NO playoff games. Never got close to sniffing a SB.
Flacco is a good QB, who helped win a SB, and got overly rewarded. That was the worst mistake Ravens have made. This yr with half the team he had last yr, they start off with a loss. Funny, Flacco didn't look too good either. Ok, maybe, but not a $20mil QB. He won't see SB again for a long time if ever. Future for him is not bright, especially when he ate up close to 18% of their payroll.
Stafford another good Qb, never going to SB with that team and coach, throws the ball thru a brick building, but I don't see a SB in his career either.

Add it all up, and I think 3 teams made horrible decisions to sign those guys for $20 mil range/yr. Flacco is going to look like he did last week, with no real team behind him. Romo is going nowhere until big Jer dies, and Stafford is just a brite shiny car in the garage...but all show, no SB. I know, they got forced into it, but those guys are making Rodgers, Brady and Peyton money and they aren't in his that category of BEST QBs. They got signed for those sums because those guys would have been snapped up by raiders, Miami, jax, Cleveland , etc. Problem is, Ravens , Cowboys , and Lions grossly overpaid, which makes it that much harder to build a meaningful team. True, Flacco did win the SB, but really that was a coaching job and a D job, plus Jacoby and Anquan. Won't happen this yr.

Which brings us to Kap. First of all, we are going to try and re-up BEFORE his contract yr, and right now he is just a phenomenal athlete, having helped take our team to SB after just playing 10 games. So no real proof of being ELITE. ( I think he is, but with just half a season, no real reason to demand ELITE pay.) Sure we will pay what we have to, and Kap will probably make what AB said, in the $15 mil/yr. area. Just because Baltimore, Dallas and Detroit screwed up, doesn't mean that the rest of the league will. And Kap right now is mostly promise, not results. Sure his results to date are off the chart, but ELITES should be paid that money for a BODY OF WORK, and I don't think those other 3 guys are worth it....at least with results, altho you certainly could make a case for Flacco. Is flacco in Rodgers category? or Stafford..or Romo? Nah, I don't think so either. And that is why I believe AB is correct in his evaluation of Kap for extending...at $15mil, not $20.

eman I agree, Iupati is not an exceptional pass blocker., but a terrific run blocker...which allows us to have such a devastating running game. But, against GB, who went all in for defense this last game, just exactly how many times was Kap sacked, knocked down, intercepted, hurried(okay, a few)....yeah..not many if at all. Hence, altho Iupati may not be the world's best pass blocker, he saw to it that Kap was safe against a team determined to stop us on D. and they didn't. So I guess Iupati may be good enough after all. We extend him. True, it will probably break down to a choice between him and crabs, (if healthy), but AB finessed that one with Crabs getting tagged as a third choice. Still tag or not, Crabs will go elsewhere for the dough the yr after. I just don't think he is a $10 o $12 mil/yr WR, and I believe Trent and JH are trying hard to make other guys available and hopefully equal to take crabs place when his contract is up. It boils down to OL is more important than 1 WR...especially when we have other guys , good guys, in the pipeline.

Mr. AB, The sad thing here is that in 2016 you have no Cowboy on the payroll. IMHO he is the best player on the team and has 4-5 years left in his mega tank.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Which brings us to Kap. First of all, we are going to try and re-up BEFORE his contract yr, and right now he is just a phenomenal athlete, having helped take our team to SB after just playing 10 games. So no real proof of being ELITE. ( I think he is, but with just half a season, no real reason to demand ELITE pay.) Sure we will pay what we have to, and Kap will probably make what AB said, in the $15 mil/yr. area. Just because Baltimore, Dallas and Detroit screwed up, doesn't mean that the rest of the league will. And Kap right now is mostly promise, not results. Sure his results to date are off the chart, but ELITES should be paid that money for a BODY OF WORK, and I don't think those other 3 guys are worth it....at least with results, altho you certainly could make a case for Flacco. Is flacco in Rodgers category? or Stafford..or Romo? Nah, I don't think so either. And that is why I believe AB is correct in his evaluation of Kap for extending...at $15mil, not $20.

Pasodoc9er, while your logic is seemingly sound, logic and sports don't always go hand n hand. If all the niners are offering 15m why would kap not just wait till free agancy to make that. At that point other teams get involved and hopefully he's at least been to another Super Bowl if not won one to drive his number up up up! In 2013 the Franchise number for non exclusive was 14.8m. More than likely in 2015 when kap's contract is over it'll be closer 16m or 17m! He's not locking himself up for less than the tag number for 5 or 6 years hoping the niners rip up his contract after a year or two finally be paid fair market value. To give you further perspective the exclusive tag(only the 49ers can talk to him) is where the player is offered a minimum of the average of the top five salaries at the players position or 120% of the players previous years salary whichever is greater. In 2013 that number is 20.4m!!!!! Who knows how high that number will be in 2015? Boys and girls 2015 off season is not that far, its the rest of this year and next. Sorry he ain't signing for 15m. Who here would under value themselves 25% of potential earnings?

I doubt Cowboy is here past 2015. He may have a lot in his tank, but he also stated he doesn't see himself being a situational role player, or something along those lines, which is what he probably would be by 2016.

I also notice there's a lot of debate about Iupati vs. Crabtree. But it seems as if the front office has already made a decision in that they have at least begun the process of negotiating an extension with our guard which I believe was done right after they extended Ahthony Davis. Top 5 guard > top 10 receiver. Especially when the top 10 receiver will most likely cost more to extend than the top 5 guard.

bALLSO, a good argument, but here's a thot. At 120mil, I think flacco eats up 18% of cap each yr. Obviously it depends on structure, but just like the stupidity that formerly gave top 5 college draft picks millions and millions of $$ without any NFL experience, the league got together and said "no mas". Now a hotshot like Luck, RG3,et all, cannot break the bank because of the owners putting a cap on it. Soon they are going to find themselves(assuming your numbers are correct) paying 20, 25% of payroll to top flite Qbs. Then what? Next 30, 35%? It has to stop and it will with a top cap soon, or the owner are going to ruin their teams if they sign a Qb who is top 5-6. It has to stop. It just has to.

Curious as to AB's take on this.

Originally posted by TexasGuero49:

Awesome work... Hope Jed is looking at your potential

This. Great job AB83!

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
bALLSO, a good argument, but here's a thot. At 120mil, I think flacco eats up 18% of cap each yr. Obviously it depends on structure, but just like the stupidity that formerly gave top 5 college draft picks millions and millions of $$ without any NFL experience, the league got together and said "no mas". Now a hotshot like Luck, RG3,et all, cannot break the bank because of the owners putting a cap on it. Soon they are going to find themselves(assuming your numbers are correct) paying 20, 25% of payroll to top flite Qbs. Then what? Next 30, 35%? It has to stop and it will with a top cap soon, or the owner are going to ruin their teams if they sign a Qb who is top 5-6. It has to stop. It just has to.

Curious as to AB's take on this.

The cap is gonna eventually raise, but no one knows when. It is as if it is a secret.

I see 6yr $90M deal, thats $15M average. Fair deal, for a guy with 26 starts by end of 2013, maybe an extra 2-4 depended on playoffs. I cant see paying him Flacco money. It would be a mistake IMO.

I can't see dropping big dime on RIo. I'd rather spend that in other places.

Originally posted by AB83Rules:
The cap is gonna eventually raise, but no one knows when. It is as if it is a secret.

I see 6yr $90M deal, thats $15M average. Fair deal, for a guy with 26 starts by end of 2013, maybe an extra 2-4 depended on playoffs. I cant see paying him Flacco money. It would be a mistake IMO.

I hope your right! I am a huge 49er fan after all so anything that helps the team all the better! So my question to you then is how do you figure your scenario possible with the facts i've layed out? What would you suggest the course of action should be if Kap ultimately doesn't wanna play ball and wants what probably is gonna be fair market value(18m to 22m just a guess)? I ask these questions because as much teams, fans don't like it the phenomena of the QB taking up 20% of the cap isn't going anywhere! At least it isn't changing till the next collective bargaining agreement.

First off...great post by AB and follow up comments..It would be great if all posts could create this type of discussion.
My thoughts...
1)I don't see any way that Gore remains for anything more than backup rb money (maybe 1m per) after his deal expires, especially if the Niner could get hunter wrapped up for 2m per as AB suggests. I would be comfortable w/ the Niner having LMJ, Kendall and Lattimore or another draft pick/vet in the back field.

2) I also think Brooks is vulnerable. Just not certain that Trent can afford to toe up that much money in the LB's.

3) I am torn in Kaep's new contract. I don't belive a home town discount exists, biyt I'm not certain market value is that far off from AB's suggestion. Here is my logic.. Kaep is set to make 1.2m (base+workout) in 2014, rip up that deal and giving him a 6 yr 96m deal ( 16m per). If he waits and hits free agency he would need to recoup that 14.8 million he is leaving on the table by not extending in '14. On the standard 5 year deal that top QB's seem to be signing, he would need to get almost 3m more per season (or 19m) from another team...When you factor is the present value of money (money today is worth more than money to be paid in the future) it could be argued that from a pure financial perspective, the better choice is a 6 year 96 million dollar deal signed in 2014 when compared to waiting to sign a 5 yeas 100m deal in 2015.

4) Aldon is the one free agent who scares me. No way he take .01 less than he can get. I'm not sure with his off the field stuff that I would want to make him record breaking offer.