My Mock Outlook to 2014 and 2015 Cap Wise

Originally posted by teeohh:
I love Frank, but since when does a rb need to be mentored for two years? If Lattimore was a first round talent why waste the cap space on an old rb when there's so many dudes to resign. Rookies come in and have big years every season

I just feel like Gore is gone once his contract is up

Teeohh, I think Gore is set to make around 6.45 next year. I really think after this year we could ask him to restructure and I think he will. There is a small chance we add another year on when restructuring but I don't think we will put 2. If it were up to me I start with 2014 and say Gore you know you are worth it but we can't afford it and we need to work on the future. He wants to win, he's been a part of the dark era so I think he will take a cut. Then you see where we are at after 2014. If we don't extend Gore when restructuring then he and Hunter will be FAs after 2014 and not sure both will be back. Think we have to go with Hunter. We will see how Lattimore and James do this year/next year though before moving on from Gore. If we do move on I think we should give him an assistant job under Rathman if he wants it.

Everyone wants a Flacco deal for Kap, here is the terms.

http://www.overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Joe%20Flacco&Position=QB&Team=Ravens

Makes $6.8M this year, $14.8M in 2014, $14.55M in 2015. Good numbers, easy on cap right.

2016= $28.55M
2017= $31.15M
2018= $24.75M

Can our cap really take that? No it cant for one player. That's a terrible contract structure. Even people I have spoken with have said so, OTC said it was a bad deal, and he is like me, done this for a while. He did JetsCap.com, and then did OTC starting this year.

How about Rodgers.

2013= 12M
2014= $17.9M
2015= $18.6M
2016= $19.6M
2017= $20.65M
2018= $20.9M
2019= $21.1M

More affordable on the back end then Flacco's is.

And Matt Ryan

2013= $9.6M
2014= $17.5M
2015= $19.5M
2016= $23.75M
2017- $23.75M
2018= $21.65M

Those 2015-2016 numbers hurt, as the cap may not go up until 2016, or 2017. The NFL as stated it is a flat cap. Robert Kraft said it wont go up like some have hoped.

Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Brady just took less money in 2013 and even less in later years so they could sign FAs.

I know Ozzie is a good GM, but he had no choice. Flacco won the SB, MVP, they were in cap hell, they needed their star QB, and lost nearly every starter on Defense.

It is stupid to pay someone if it will hurt the cap down the line. Flacco's deal is outragious , not worth it. His 3rd or 4th yr he counts $20M, and more throughout the deal. You cant set aside that amount in the new cap era, where it's flat.

Why do people not understand it. I know Kap is 20M QB worthy, but is Baalke dumb enough to structure a deal that will hurt the cap is question now. And please dont attack me. It seems like your new thing to do BrianGO. I will not retaliate for no reason.

"...he had no choice."

This is KEY.

Obviously, Ozzie had a "choice", but that choice was between being destroyed by the media and fans (where people can't forget, the NFL is a BUSINESS FIRST), or overpaying for Flacco and hurting the actual team long term.
You say Flacco won the Super Bowl. So what? Who cares? What's that? The fans? Who cares what they think. Oh wait, you're right, the FANS are what matter in the business of football. The FANS want to see Flacco stay, because the team won't be as good without him and he just won a Super Bowl and the FANS think he deserves to get paid.

Can you honestly say that there is less pressure on Baalke to sign Kap? Are you saying that the FANS of the 49ers are more likely to be happy about Kap walking as Ravens fans would be happy about Flacco walking? NO WAY Jose.

Baalke MUST sign Kap. Like Newsome, "he has no choice". The FANS will set fire to team headquarters if he lets Kap walk because he doesn't want to pay him like Flacco. It is exactly the same situation. Flacco winning the Super Bowl is only significant because the FANS have become more attached to him.
However, Kap NOT winning a Super Bowl, does not mean the fans are any less attached to him than the Ravens fans are to Flacco.

Kap leaving this team, would be like Ronald McDonald leaving McDonald's. It would be an EPIC DISASTER for the team and for their business. He is already the face of the franchise and will become more so in the year ahead, with or without a Super Bowl victory.

The Lions, Ravens, Falcons, Saints, Packers all had NO CHOICE.

BTW, Brady and his wife make 70 quadrillion dollars a year on things not related to football. So Brady can afford a bit of a hit on his income, even though he probably needed permission from his wife.

I am not trying to attack. Just trying to debate the issue. Text can look a lot more harsh then it is intended to be.

Originally posted by AB83Rules:
And please dont attack me. It seems like your new thing to do BrianGO. I will not retaliate for no reason.

No AB i dont think anyone is attacking you. Certainly was not my intention. Like i said earlier you created a compelling commentary that is envoking a lot emotions(and facts) for 49ers fans who o want you to be right but are sceptical.

Originally posted by BrianGO:

Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Brady just took less money in 2013 and even less in later years so they could sign FAs.

I know Ozzie is a good GM, but he had no choice. Flacco won the SB, MVP, they were in cap hell, they needed their star QB, and lost nearly every starter on Defense.

It is stupid to pay someone if it will hurt the cap down the line. Flacco's deal is outragious , not worth it. His 3rd or 4th yr he counts $20M, and more throughout the deal. You cant set aside that amount in the new cap era, where it's flat.

Why do people not understand it. I know Kap is 20M QB worthy, but is Baalke dumb enough to structure a deal that will hurt the cap is question now. And please dont attack me. It seems like your new thing to do BrianGO. I will not retaliate for no reason.

"...he had no choice."

This is KEY.

Obviously, Ozzie had a "choice", but that choice was between being destroyed by the media and fans (where people can't forget, the NFL is a BUSINESS FIRST), or overpaying for Flacco and hurting the actual team long term.
You say Flacco won the Super Bowl. So what? Who cares? What's that? The fans? Who cares what they think. Oh wait, you're right, the FANS are what matter in the business of football. The FANS want to see Flacco stay, because the team won't be as good without him and he just won a Super Bowl and the FANS think he deserves to get paid.

Can you honestly say that there is less pressure on Baalke to sign Kap? Are you saying that the FANS of the 49ers are more likely to be happy about Kap walking as Ravens fans would be happy about Flacco walking? NO WAY Jose.

Baalke MUST sign Kap. Like Newsome, "he has no choice". The FANS will set fire to team headquarters if he lets Kap walk because he doesn't want to pay him like Flacco. It is exactly the same situation. Flacco winning the Super Bowl is only significant because the FANS have become more attached to him.
However, Kap NOT winning a Super Bowl, does not mean the fans are any less attached to him than the Ravens fans are to Flacco.

Kap leaving this team, would be like Ronald McDonald leaving McDonald's. It would be an EPIC DISASTER for the team and for their business. He is already the face of the franchise and will become more so in the year ahead, with or without a Super Bowl victory.

The Lions, Ravens, Falcons, Saints, Packers all had NO CHOICE.

BTW, Brady and his wife make 70 quadrillion dollars a year on things not related to football. So Brady can afford a bit of a hit on his income, even though he probably needed permission from his wife.

I agree we need to keep Kap. But did you even look at the last 3 years of Flacco's deal

2016= $28.55M
2017= $31.15M
2018= $24.75M

You're telling me they were forced to give Flacco 28M, 31M and $24M in last 3 years? They could of franchised him for fraction of the 120.6M cost.

The reason they did the deal was for cap room, they had no room to franchise him, so they were stuck signing him to a ridiculous deal.

Kap will get paid, but he isnt selfish, and he has only 26 games after 2013 under his belt as starts. Flacco has over 5yrs worth. 26 games doesn't equal $20M a yr. What if we fall short in playoffs, or Kap doesnt get MVP. Not all pro, then is he is still a 20M QB? Even with 26 starts.

Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Man, I wish I had the money. I am gonna go back for Business degree. Do 4 years, get what I need, and then work somewhere as a manager. I will have the degree, and a background in numbers, so maybe a Bank Manager, or something. Or this pays out, and I get a job with someone doing salary cap work. Not dsaying the 49ers. I wouldn't decline them of course. But maybe a big website, ESPN, or Football Outsiders, something like that. I write on 3 sites, Here, NCH and Niners Nation.

I figure If I can get a 100k-150k job, I would be able to pay off my mothers loan on the house, and buy a new updated home. I am 29, so it's about time I get this going, and when done, do something nice for my mother, who supported me the whole time. My dad on other hand, has a difficult time believing this. And I just bought a laptop(500+ dollars) for him to watch his Vikings with my ST login. And willing to give a kidney, he is on dialysis, and kidney failure. And I get bs from him. No respect at times. Hurts man.

I know you are that type of person who if had money would help out your family. I know first thing I would do if I won the lottery is pay off everything for my family so hopefully none would have to work again. Then I'm coming to the webzone and giving out money like mad. I don't play so won't happen but if It did that's what I would do. I don't need much to live off I'm a simple guy. That's too bad about your dad. Seems like now or never AB. Either have to hope you can move on up and get something bigger online or head to school. Sure would be a lot more fun working with the salary cap than working with a bank's numbers but I'm sure that pays a heck of a lot more than the websites do. Now days you're better off turning your site into a gossip rag then doing good writing like you do. Seems like nobody takes the high road anymore. You get bigger and get your name out there by writing bs. Tomorrow's headline on your site.. Aldon Smith Gang Ties? Gang Members Spotted at His House Party.... You see it all over with the media, nobody is held accountable and they all jump on any little thing and blow it out of proportion to make it a story. Maybe it's time to sell out like Florio. Make stories out of nothing. J/K, you keep your head held high and take the high road.

Originally posted by bALLSOhARD:

Originally posted by AB83Rules:
And please dont attack me. It seems like your new thing to do BrianGO. I will not retaliate for no reason.

No AB i dont think anyone is attacking you. Certainly was not my intention. Like i said earlier you created a compelling commentary that is envoking a lot emotions(and facts) for 49ers fans who o want you to be right but are sceptical.

Not you, talking about BrianGO, he seems to be doing it alot lately. But it is nice to see new members here. I dont mean to be harsh. Just gets me going. I cant see them screwing the cap up. I am for 20M, but make it with incentives, and escalators. Based on proving he is worth it. 26 starts isnt enough for me to say 20M a yr or more.

Originally posted by Gore_21:

Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Man, I wish I had the money. I am gonna go back for Business degree. Do 4 years, get what I need, and then work somewhere as a manager. I will have the degree, and a background in numbers, so maybe a Bank Manager, or something. Or this pays out, and I get a job with someone doing salary cap work. Not dsaying the 49ers. I wouldn't decline them of course. But maybe a big website, ESPN, or Football Outsiders, something like that. I write on 3 sites, Here, NCH and Niners Nation.

I figure If I can get a 100k-150k job, I would be able to pay off my mothers loan on the house, and buy a new updated home. I am 29, so it's about time I get this going, and when done, do something nice for my mother, who supported me the whole time. My dad on other hand, has a difficult time believing this. And I just bought a laptop(500+ dollars) for him to watch his Vikings with my ST login. And willing to give a kidney, he is on dialysis, and kidney failure. And I get bs from him. No respect at times. Hurts man.

I know you are that type of person who if had money would help out your family. I know first thing I would do if I won the lottery is pay off everything for my family so hopefully none would have to work again. Then I'm coming to the webzone and giving out money like mad. I don't play so won't happen but if It did that's what I would do. I don't need much to live off I'm a simple guy. That's too bad about your dad. Seems like now or never AB. Either have to hope you can move on up and get something bigger online or head to school. Sure would be a lot more fun working with the salary cap than working with a bank's numbers but I'm sure that pays a heck of a lot more than the websites do. Now days you're better off turning your site into a gossip rag then doing good writing like you do. Seems like nobody takes the high road anymore. You get bigger and get your name out there by writing bs. Tomorrow's headline on your site.. Aldon Smith Gang Ties? Gang Members Spotted at His House Party.... You see it all over with the media, nobody is held accountable and they all jump on any little thing and blow it out of proportion to make it a story. Maybe it's time to sell out like Florio. Make stories out of nothing. J/K, you keep your head held high and take the high road.

LOL. That would be hilarious title. But Florio drives me crazy. He is on twitter and bashes NinersNation one day, for some reason. He wont reply to emails. And such. He seems like a DBag. Just my opinion. Thats the way he comes off. Like Rosenhaus did with Owens.

Originally posted by AB83Rules:
2016= $28.55M
2017= $31.15M
2018= $24.75M

I'll roll with BJ and use the extra money to sign Aldon, Crabtree, Miller, Hunter, Culliver before I pay that kind of money to a QB. We have a lot of talent on our team and we aren't like some of those other teams who have to rely almost entirely on a QB. I'm with you AB, I don't think Kap will want anywhere near that much and I'm sure we wouldn't pay him that much. Brian, you don't think Kap will give some sort of discount? He wants to be here, he spent most of his life here, he grew up a 9er fans, he wants to win. Just my opinion but if Aldon wants a 100 million and Kap wants 120 million I think Baalke and company would treat him like Goldson or any other player... we would have to move on. I'd probably franchise Kap in 2015 and I think Aldon would have an option for 2015 so that would give us this year, next and 2015 to win a SB. Then go from there.

Originally posted by AB83Rules:

Originally posted by BrianGO:
Do you feel Ozzie Newsome is a good general manager? If yes, then why did he sign Flacco to that deal? Newsome has been doing this for as long as you have, right?
Do you feel Trent Baalke is a good general manager? If yes, than what makes him different from Ozzie Newsome where he doesn't have to sign a franchise quarterback to a 20+ mil deal? Why does Baalke receive a free pass?

What elite quarterback has ever taken any discount of any kind?
What team has ever let their elite franchise quarterback walk?

Kap is on the cover of every magazine, has every statistic, has every tangible physical attribute, has every intangible attribute, and has every football expert drooling over him, yet somehow Baalke pulls an Obi Wan:
Baalke - "You don't need a max contract."
Kap - "I don't need a max contract."
Baalke - "Money is not what you are looking for."
Kap - "Money is not what I am looking for."
Baalke - "You can go back to practice."
Kap - "I can go back to practice."
Baalke - "You agent needs to leave the building, and move along."
Kap to his agent - "Move along... move along..."
Kap's agent - "What the f**k?!"

The argument is the same for Aldon Smith. What elite pass rusher has ever taken a discount contract?

I pray you are right, but I just don't see it.

Brady just took less money in 2013 and even less in later years so they could sign FAs.

I know Ozzie is a good GM, but he had no choice. Flacco won the SB, MVP, they were in cap hell, they needed their star QB, and lost nearly every starter on Defense.

It is stupid to pay someone if it will hurt the cap down the line. Flacco's deal is outragious , not worth it. His 3rd or 4th yr he counts $20M, and more throughout the deal. You cant set aside that amount in the new cap era, where it's flat.

Why do people not understand it. I know Kap is 20M QB worthy, but is Baalke dumb enough to structure a deal that will hurt the cap is question now. And please dont attack me. It seems like your new thing to do BrianGO. I will not retaliate for no reason.

This. The Patriots have been able to field a Super Bowl contending team for over a decade because of Brady's unselfishness. It has put them in position to make a run at big name free agents or trade for vets like Randy Moss, Adalius Thomas, etc when the time came. It's just not happening.

I also say why not resign Mario Manningham if he is healthy, directed at posters who think we should let him walk? Because of his injury history, we may be able to get him for cheap. The guy is a clutch player and would make a great #3 for the short term (1-3 years). I don't think it hinders Patton because he is likely the starter by 2015 when Crabtree will be gone.

I also believe this offseason we may see the reality of the flat cap in that teams won't be signing so many guys to blockbuster type of deals OR we'll just wait for 2015/2016 when the cap hell begins for certain teams, especially when they aren't winning anything. We will not be one of those teams.

Originally posted by Gore_21:

Originally posted by AB83Rules:
2016= $28.55M
2017= $31.15M
2018= $24.75M

I'll roll with BJ and use the extra money to sign Aldon, Crabtree, Miller, Hunter, Culliver before I pay that kind of money to a QB. We have a lot of talent on our team and we aren't like some of those other teams who have to rely almost entirely on a QB. I'm with you AB, I don't think Kap will want anywhere near that much and I'm sure we wouldn't pay him that much. Brian, you don't think Kap will give some sort of discount? He wants to be here, he spent most of his life here, he grew up a 9er fans, he wants to win. Just my opinion but if Aldon wants a 100 million and Kap wants 120 million I think Baalke and company would treat him like Goldson or any other player... we would have to move on. I'd probably franchise Kap in 2015 and I think Aldon would have an option for 2015 so that would give us this year, next and 2015 to win a SB. Then go from there.

Yep, Aldon has his option already exercised I'm sure. Top 10 OLB money. And Kap would get tag if they cant get them done in 2014. I think Kap isnt selfish and will give us a break on structure.

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
This. The Patriots have been able to field a Super Bowl contending team for over a decade because of Brady's unselfishness. It has put them in position to make a run at big name free agents or trade for vets like Randy Moss, Adalius Thomas, etc when the time came. It's just not happening.

I also say why not resign Mario Manningham if he is healthy, directed at posters who think we should let him walk? Because of his injury history, we may be able to get him for cheap. The guy is a clutch player and would make a great #3 for the short term (1-3 years). I don't think it hinders Patton because he is likely the starter by 2015 when Crabtree will be gone.

I also believe this offseason we may see the reality of the flat cap in that teams won't be signing so many guys to blockbuster type of deals OR we'll just wait for 2015/2016 when the cap hell begins for certain teams, especially when they aren't winning anything. We will not be one of those teams.

^^^ I approve of this message, lol. And agree 100%

I was actually one of the few who liked Manningham when he was a free agent with the Giants. I was surprised at how little he signed for. I thought he was doing well for us until he go hurt. My thought on the WR's is I'd choose between Manningham, Williams and Moore. Maybe sign 2 if cheap but think I'd pick the best value one. With Manningham if he can come back strong, be clutch the rest of the season and help us in the playoffs I say think about re-signing him for a year, maybe 2 at cheap price. If he comes back, isn't doing much, still hurt then I say we have to move on and get someone who we can count on. Wish he would have been healthy in the playoffs last year. We very well could have won the super bowl if he wasn't out. With Williams like I have said it's either step up or move on. There are many guys who can get you 20 catches and 200 yards a year. If he does well I'd think about re-signing him for cheap as a #4 guy (Crabtree, Boldin, Patton, Williams/Moore/Manningham, Baldwin, Rookie). For all we know one of Williams/Moore/Manningham might not be around at the end of the year so might make the decision even easier.

Originally posted by AB83Rules:
I agree we need to keep Kap. But did you even look at the last 3 years of Flacco's deal

2016= $28.55M
2017= $31.15M
2018= $24.75M

You're telling me they were forced to give Flacco 28M, 31M and $24M in last 3 years? They could of franchised him for fraction of the 120.6M cost.

The reason they did the deal was for cap room, they had no room to franchise him, so they were stuck signing him to a ridiculous deal.

Kap will get paid, but he isnt selfish, and he has only 26 games after 2013 under his belt as starts. Flacco has over 5yrs worth. 26 games doesn't equal $20M a yr. What if we fall short in playoffs, or Kap doesnt get MVP. Not all pro, then is he is still a 20M QB? Even with 26 starts.

Flacco's deal looks crazy. But it just proves the point even more. The team will do anything to keep their quarterback.

I don't think we have so much committed money that we will be forced into a Flacco-like deal. Perhaps it will look more like Rodgers or Ryans deals.

My main point, is that fans have to be prepared to lose something roughly like this in the next year or two:
Goodwin
Gore
Whitner
Rogers
Brown
Culliver
Boldin
Miller
Brooks
Dorsey
Crabtree
Iupati
Manningham


Most of these players will be gone.
But losing most of these guy's won't destroy our team. We had a great draft, and we are loaded with picks next year too. We'll have to lose some good players, but Kap MUST be signed, and Aldon is nearly another "must".

Originally posted by Gore_21:

Originally posted by teeohh:
I love Frank, but since when does a rb need to be mentored for two years? If Lattimore was a first round talent why waste the cap space on an old rb when there's so many dudes to resign. Rookies come in and have big years every season

I just feel like Gore is gone once his contract is up

Teeohh, I think Gore is set to make around 6.45 next year. I really think after this year we could ask him to restructure and I think he will. There is a small chance we add another year on when restructuring but I don't think we will put 2. If it were up to me I start with 2014 and say Gore you know you are worth it but we can't afford it and we need to work on the future. He wants to win, he's been a part of the dark era so I think he will take a cut. Then you see where we are at after 2014. If we don't extend Gore when restructuring then he and Hunter will be FAs after 2014 and not sure both will be back. Think we have to go with Hunter. We will see how Lattimore and James do this year/next year though before moving on from Gore. If we do move on I think we should give him an assistant job under Rathman if he wants it.

This is one of those base case scenarios. I'd love to see Gore here through 2016. Basically play out 2014 as the starter and then the final two years easing him into a back-up/coaching role if he is willing to do so. I'd like to see Lattimore eased in and Kendall Hunter given a greater share of the carries (this seems to be the trajectory for Hunter anyway based on Game 1), as Gore is eased out. If he can teach our backs his vision (one of the best ever to me) and pass protection skills, we will have the best running back group for years to come.