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Is It Time To Identify A Franchise WR ?

Originally posted by GNielsen:
Typically, other teams are more wary of an injury than the holding team, not less. And, most GM's around the league have already indicated that they think the Harvin deal is a bit of an aberration and that they think the Seahawks paid too much. But, we'll know a lot more by the end of this next season. If the Harvin deal doesn't bring significant results to Seattle, it's going to be a sign to GM's around the league that receiver money has topped out or gone a little too far. What has the Vincent Jackson deal done for the Bucs and for that matter, what has Megatron done for the Lions? Yes, they produce, but what has that actually done for the teams?


Teams can say all they like after the trade especially if they lost out. No matter how wary they are with previous injuries or the money the player is demanding, the chances are with great talents such as Harvin or Wallace, they will always develop into a competitive situation as teams fight over to secure their services. Once that happens, GMs are not prepared to risk losing the bid if they want the player bad enough. Even if Harvin underperforms this season, I can't see it having too much bearing on how teams will view top free agents. Of course, it also depends on how desperate or aggressive the teams will be next offseason too, for example I don't think there is any argument the Dolphins were massively desperate given is contract year for the GM. I tell you what, say if Harvin totally bombs (which I doubt will happen) and if Crab is available, don't be too surprised if Pete Carroll might make a move for Crab even.

As for your point on Vincent Jackson and Megatron, no one player can turn the team around entirely. I think teams understand that, other pieces will need to be in place. In the context of receivers alone, there will need to be legit 2nd and 3rd option in order to unlock double teams plus to help with the overall production, much like Julio Jones has Roddy White for example. On the other hand, if you look at Brandon Marshall, he has helped out the Bears a lot given his great chemistry with Jay Cutler, obviously the lack of secondary receiver options has limited his production to a degree, but the guy still cleared 1,500 yards. Likewise, Vincent Jackson had almost 1,400 yards and I guess you won't need me to tell you about Megatron when he broke Jerry's record with almost 2.000 yards last year. As you can see, it is not so much these top guys are not working out, but teams need to build other complimentary weapons too, be it other receivers and RBs to help with the overall effectiveness of the passing game.
Originally posted by Rascal:

As for your point on Vincent Jackson and Megatron, no one player can turn the team around entirely. I think teams understand that, other pieces will need to be in place. In the context of receivers alone, there will need to be legit 2nd and 3rd option in order to unlock double teams plus to help with the overall production, much like Julio Jones has Roddy White for example. On the other hand, if you look at Brandon Marshall, he has helped out the Bears a lot given his great chemistry with Jay Cutler, obviously the lack of secondary receiver options has limited his production to a degree, but the guy still cleared 1,500 yards. Likewise, Vincent Jackson had almost 1,400 yards and I guess you won't need me to tell you about Megatron when he broke Jerry's record with almost 2.000 yards last year. As you can see, it is not so much these top guys are not working out, but teams need to build other complimentary weapons too, be it other receivers and RBs to help with the overall effectiveness of the passing game.

Right, they're obviously producing, but the problem I see is that teams are over-valuing a certain position and sinking too much money into it. On offense, the quarterback should make the most money, not the wide receiver. Baalke has a number for every position and he hardly strays from it. If a given player is priced out of his range, he's not interested. This is very similar to the way the Patriots, Giants and Packers do things. That's part of the reason why you don't see receivers making that kind of money on those teams.
Since so many posters have attacked the point on what has all these top receivers done for their teams so on and so forth. Let me just make a point here, no one guy can perform miracles if the rest of the team has other areas of deficiencies. Is common sense that you need secondary weapons to help with double teams and overall production. But, at the same time, I don't think any of the doubters have actually looked at the production of these top receivers, so let me just list them out for you here (based on the 2012 season) :

  • Megatron - 1,964 yards (broke Jerry Rice's all time NFL record)
  • Julio Jones - 1,198 yards (but, don't forget he had to share the ball with Roddy White who had 1,351 yards himself)
  • AJ Green - 1,350 yards
  • Vincent Jackson - 1,384 yards
  • Brandon Marshall - 1,508 yards

So, I hope that will clear any misconception about top WRs being easy targets for double teams. While the 9ers were able to shut down Megatron and Brandon Marshall, obviously other teams couldn't cos otherwise we wouldn't be looking at such high production from them. I doubt anyone would challenge 1,300, 1,500 yards as scrubs type performance or them not contributing to their teams.
Originally posted by GNielsen:
Right, they're obviously producing, but the problem I see is that teams are over-valuing a certain position and sinking too much money into it. On offense, the quarterback should make the most money, not the wide receiver. Baalke has a number for every position and he hardly strays from it. If a given player is priced out of his range, he's not interested. This is very similar to the way the Patriots, Giants and Packers do things. That's part of the reason why you don't see receivers making that kind of money on those teams.


I don't think I am saying WRs should make more than QBs. Having said that, you can't just say that in isolation, if you have a scrub of a QB then there is no reason why he should make the most money on the roster. Or let me be less extreme here, was Alex Smith the highest paid guy on our roster when he was here ? I don't think so.

In any case, I am not even talking about money at this point. I am only suggesting let's draft this top WR, enjoy his production for say 5 years for next to nothing, then decide later on whether you want to cough up the dollars after that. So, is not really a factor here for the purpose of our discussion on this thread.
Right. I should have been more specific. What I think is that an elite franchise QB should be the highest paid offensive player. Brady, Rodgers, the Mannings, Brees and virtually every other elite QB who is not still on a rookie deal are the highest paid guys. And, I'm guessing that if Kaepernick continues to produce like an elite QB and takes the team deep in the playoffs again or certainly if he helps the team win a championship, Baalke will be paying him more than anyone else on offense.
Originally posted by Rascal:
What are your thoughts ?

Originally posted by goldstandard333:

Too bad that was the best play of his career. I wish we could make a highlight video of plays like these but he doesn't have too many...
[ Edited by HarboutTHAT on May 27, 2013 at 9:11 PM ]
Originally posted by GNielsen:
Right, they're obviously producing, but the problem I see is that teams are over-valuing a certain position and sinking too much money into it. On offense, the quarterback should make the most money, not the wide receiver. Baalke has a number for every position and he hardly strays from it. If a given player is priced out of his range, he's not interested. This is very similar to the way the Patriots, Giants and Packers do things. That's part of the reason why you don't see receivers making that kind of money on those teams.


I have a better idea, let me put it in another way which you might find more palatable.

In the 2012 regular season, the 9ers were ranked 23rd in Passing Offense with 3,298 yards. Out of that 3,298 yards, 1,105 yards was contributed by Crab which represented 33.5 % of the total production. The next highest contributor was Vernon with 548 yards which was only 49.6% of Crab's production. That remaining 2,193 yards were contributed by a total of no less than 11 other targets including Mario, Kyle, Randy, Vernon, Delanie, Frank, Kendall, LaMike, Bruce, Garrek and Ted.

What does that tell you ? I think is more than apparent we do need that No. 1 WR without a question. At the moment, that person is Crab and we are about to pay him that huge contract that you were talking about should we wish to retain his service. In other words, you almost can't get away with paying that big contract, be it to Crab or someone else down the road. That is why I am suggesting let's draft that No. 1 WR and enjoy him for 4-5 years for peanuts and worry about the contract later on. And frankly, if you want to get away with ever having to pay that huge contract to a WR, you should try to draft a top WR on a much more regular basis, so that you have a healthy supply of top WRs to replace the guy who is about to land that huge contract.
And no I don't play Madden or any computer games for that matter.

Computer games?? It's a video game, Bruh!
[ Edited by HarboutTHAT on May 27, 2013 at 9:16 PM ]
Originally posted by GNielsen:
Right. I should have been more specific. What I think is that an elite franchise QB should be the highest paid offensive player. Brady, Rodgers, the Mannings, Brees and virtually every other elite QB who is not still on a rookie deal are the highest paid guys. And, I'm guessing that if Kaepernick continues to produce like an elite QB and takes the team deep in the playoffs again or certainly if he helps the team win a championship, Baalke will be paying him more than anyone else on offense.


Oh, no question about it. If we want to keep Kaep which we do, I can't see us being able to get away with anything less than $15 mil a year. Kaep will be hot property in the open market, teams will be willing to pay anything to get him.
Originally posted by Rascal:
Originally posted by GNielsen:
Right, they're obviously producing, but the problem I see is that teams are over-valuing a certain position and sinking too much money into it. On offense, the quarterback should make the most money, not the wide receiver. Baalke has a number for every position and he hardly strays from it. If a given player is priced out of his range, he's not interested. This is very similar to the way the Patriots, Giants and Packers do things. That's part of the reason why you don't see receivers making that kind of money on those teams.


I have a better idea, let me put it in another way which you might find more palatable.

In the 2012 regular season, the 9ers were ranked 23rd in Passing Offense with 3,298 yards. Out of that 3,298 yards, 1,105 yards was contributed by Crab which represented 33.5 % of the total production. The next highest contributor was Vernon with 548 yards which was only 49.6% of Crab's production. That remaining 2,193 yards were contributed by a total of no less than 11 other targets including Mario, Kyle, Randy, Vernon, Delanie, Frank, Kendall, LaMike, Bruce, Garrek and Ted.

What does that tell you ? I think is more than apparent we do need that No. 1 WR without a question. At the moment, that person is Crab and we are about to pay him that huge contract that you were talking about should we wish to retain his service. In other words, you almost can't get away with paying that big contract, be it to Crab or someone else down the road. That is why I am suggesting let's draft that No. 1 WR and enjoy him for 4-5 years for peanuts and worry about the contract later on. And frankly, if you want to get away with ever having to pay that huge contract to a WR, you should try to draft a top WR on a much more regular basis, so that you have a healthy supply of top WRs to replace the guy who is about to land that huge contract.

Matt Milen is that you? It's a silly way to build a roster.
  • buck
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Originally posted by Rascal:
I have a better idea, let me put it in another way which you might find more palatable.

In the 2012 regular season, the 9ers were ranked 23rd in Passing Offense with 3,298 yards. Out of that 3,298 yards, 1,105 yards was contributed by Crab which represented 33.5 % of the total production. The next highest contributor was Vernon with 548 yards which was only 49.6% of Crab's production. That remaining 2,193 yards were contributed by a total of no less than 11 other targets including Mario, Kyle, Randy, Vernon, Delanie, Frank, Kendall, LaMike, Bruce, Garrek and Ted.

What does that tell you ? I think is more than apparent we do need that No. 1 WR without a question. At the moment, that person is Crab and we are about to pay him that huge contract that you were talking about should we wish to retain his service.

There are many factors that need to be considered.

1. We still have not played a down in 2013. We will have a better sense of our receiving core after the season. No matter what we think of our wide receivers today, we should be able to acknowledge that we may have a different prespective next year.

2. Crabtree is signed for two years. We really do know what will happen with his contract without seeing how he plays after he recovers from surgery.

3. We do not even know which wide receiver prospects will be in the draft, and they still have a year to play. We have seen how highly rated players can drop like rocks in one year. Baalke and company have begun the evaluation process, but they are not close to deciding on our draft board.

4. We do not just to get to pick any player we want. Our position in the draft is critical, and we do not know that yet.

5. Trading up requires a trading partner, so we cannot assume that we can trade up for a player.

5. There might be needs, and perhaps major needs, that become more apparent between now and the draft.

In short, we do not know what our major needs will be for the next draft and we do not know what players will be available when we pick.

Now is not the time to identify the player we should pick in the draft. In fact, it is impossible to make that decision at this time with the information available.
[ Edited by buck on May 27, 2013 at 9:53 PM ]
Good list Buck! I'll add a couple of items--

  • The offensive line will be better with another year together (likely) and will give CK more time to find receivers.
  • The coaching is always undervalued--they tend to bring the team up to a certain standard--excellence. They have already had to adjust for many lost players, including WRs over the past two years, now just another. I have not lost confidence in them developing Jenkins...a first rounder...let alone Patton.
  • Kaepernick's ability to run will be a key for getting receivers more open this year. Teams will be scheming against his running more this year...which could make all the WRs look much better this year...and by years end, with Manningham and Crabtree back, WR may be low on the needs list.

Agree completely that this is not the time to identify our needs for next years draft...as much fun as that is! Kaepernick is the one guy the team can't afford to lose this year...can't think of any other with equal or near equal importance.
[ Edited by dtg_9er on May 28, 2013 at 6:53 AM ]
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Good list Buck! I'll add a couple of items--

  • The offensive line will be better with another year together (likely) and will give CK more time to find receivers.
  • The coaching is always undervalued--they tend to bring the team up to a certain standard--excellence. They have already had to adjust for many lost players, including WRs over the past two years, now just another. I have not lost confidence in them developing Jenkins...a first rounder...let alone Patton.
  • Kaepernick's ability to run will be a key for getting receivers more open this year. Teams will be scheming against his running more this year...which could make all the WRs look much better this year...and by years end, with Manningham and Crabtree back, WR may be low on the needs list.

Agree completely that this is not the time to identify our needs for next years draft...as much fun as that is! Kaepernick is the one guy the team can't afford to lose this year...can't think of any other with equal or near equal importance.


I don't think this thread is talking about the intricacies and details of how the 2014 Draft should be approached, but rather the general concept of trading up to secure a top WR talent in future drafts.