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2013 Salary Cap Outlook, plus can the 49ers add a big name via Trade (Webzone Exclusive)

Originally posted by blm7754:
This is a silly debate that any OL coach on the planet would agree with me on. In general tackles are more important than guards. They posses a harder to find athletic skillset. Most tackles could easily move inside to guard and be very effective (Boone is evidence of this). But the reverse is not true.

Maybe you don't think very highly of Davis. In which case I'd agree with you... an all-pro OG is >>>> than a below average OT. But I think Davis is already a very good OT and he's still progressing. So I'll agree to disagree.

Not so silly at all, it depends entirely on the offense. New Orleans got by largely with dominant guards and average tackles and had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Based on what the 49ers do offensively, I can say flat-out that Iupati is more crucial than Davis.
Originally posted by blm7754:
Originally posted by blm7754:
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by blm7754:
True, but I think you are way overestimating the salaries that these guys will get when resigned. I could see maybe $12M for Kaep, $7M for Crab, $8M for Aldon, and no more than $5M for Iupati (he's a guard for f**ks sake).


Hi, I'm reality, have we met????



Joe "f'ng" Flacco is asking for $20 mil and will probably get $16 million. For 2015, QB's like Eli, Matt Stafford and Phillip Rivers will be earning $15 mil+ per season.

Crabtree won't settle for $7 million when lesser receivers such as Santonio Holmes are getting paid $8 or $9, as a bonafide #1 WR, he'll approach the $9-10 million dollar range.

Aldon Smith has about 35 sacks in 2 seasons, the going rate for a dominating edge pass rusher is $10 million+ a year. DeMarcus Ware will be earning $12 million+ over the next few years, so that's a good range for him.


Top NFL guards such as Iupati are raking in $6 to 7 million as a base salary currently.

There are overpaid players at every position in the NFL. That is why you don't let your key players make it to a contract year. Flacco will get overpaid by the Raven's. He's just won a superbowl, he's fairly young, and if the Raven's don't pony up he will be a FA and many other teams in the league with more cap space will be willing to fork over. He's a perfect example of what we don't want to get ourselves into.

On the other hand, look at Joe Staley's contract. We locked him up long term a long time before he could even sniff the open market. Now we have a 2 time Pro-bowl LT for $3M per year! If we lock up Crabtree long term... give him some security on a good team... we can get him for $8M easily. Same goes for Iupati. On the open market, he'd make $6-7M. But if we lock him up now, we can get him for much less.

Aldon is harder. In my mind, he hasn't proven to be a dominating edge rusher just yet. Honestly, I'd rather have Demarcus Ware anyday as his productivity doesn't depend on playing next to an all-pro DT. If Aldon improves and becomes more consistent, he's worth $10M. If we lock him up before that happens, I think we can get him for $8M... maybe $9M.

I may be optimistic about Kaep. But $12M is a good salary for a QB. Make it a 5-7 year deal with lots of guaranteed money at least a year before his rookie deal is up and I think he's ours for the long haul.

Anybody else care to comment on this? I'm curious what others think it will cost to retain these key guys in the long run.

I won't speak to the figures per se as there are much better market-experts in here but one this this FO has been doing for years is extending contracts early (Staley, Boone, Bowman, etc.). I would not be surprised to see a few more extensions during the season next year (like we did with Bowman - that came out of left field). I'm sure they fully have a plan in place to lock our core up and that plan is flexible for key injuries (Manningham, Williams, Hunter, Fleming, Johnson, etc.) and vets that don't perform (Whitner, Rogers, Sopoaga, etc.).
Originally posted by valrod33:
We have a little more cap room

Outside linebacker Ahmad Brooks had an impressive season. But it was not good enough prevent him from a "de-escalator" clause in his contract that reduces his salary in 2013.

According to an NFL source, Brooks scheduled 2013 base salary of $4.3 million was lowered to $2.7 million because he did not meet certain requirements. His salary cap figure falls from $6.65 million to $5.05 million. Even with the money saved from Brooks' deal, the 49ers are currently bumped up against the projected 2013 cap of approximately $121 million.

After the 49ers' win in the NFC Championship Game, 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh commented on the team's ability to sign Brooks to a six-year contract extension that included a $7.5 million signing bonus. He is signed through the 2017 season.

"(Defensive coordinator) Vic Fangio made the comment the other day, 'The smartest thing we did as an organization was pay Ahmad Brooks and keep him as a 49er,' " Harbaugh said. "We would all concur with that."

The "de-escalator" would have voided if the 49ers had won 12 games in the regular season and Brooks had played 93.2 percent of the 49ers' defensive snaps. The 49ers finished 11-4-1, and Brooks took part in 92.2 percent of the play time. Brooks finished with 6.5 sacks, down from seven in 2011. He had an interception return for a touchdown, a career-high 74 tackles and forced two fumbles.

Brooks has "up to" $2.5 million in de-escalators in his contract over the final four years of his deal.

http://www.csnbayarea.com/blog/matt-maiocco/source-brooks-salary-de-escalates-16-million

Another brilliant contract and an example of what I was just talking about.

That said, I feel bad for Brooks b/c he was probably the most consistent defender we had last year and certainly deserved it BUT again, this speaks to the brilliance of the FO and them doing their research. He JUST missed it...either way, Brooks is going to be close to both the wins (12) and plays (93.2%) every year and if he misses it, it favors our cap space. Brilliant.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Another brilliant contract and an example of what I was just talking about.

That said, I feel bad for Brooks b/c he was probably the most consistent defender we had last year and certainly deserved it BUT again, this speaks to the brilliance of the FO and them doing their research. He JUST missed it...either way, Brooks is going to be close to both the wins (12) and plays (93.2%) every year and if he misses it, it favors our cap space. Brilliant.

I trust the front office's creativity in structuring contract's, I just don't believe they have the ability to create miracles and that is exactly what people are asking for by wanting high-priced outside free agents, at some point the other shoe has to drop, I'd rather this team sign as many of their own free agents for the long term, rather than bringing in disgruntled players from other teams.
I am somewhat puzzled by these contracts. To the extent our front office is labeled "brilliant" in negotiating these contracts, it also speaks very negatively about these player's agents allowing their clients sign them. I cannot fathom why a competent agent wouldn't urge his up-and-coming client to refuse a contract extension offer. Why wouldn't they want to wait to hit free agency so as to capitalize on his market value. While players want to play for a good team, they and their agents understand that they only have a few years in this league to earn whatever they can. Team loyalty and such will only go so far with most.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Another brilliant contract and an example of what I was just talking about.

That said, I feel bad for Brooks b/c he was probably the most consistent defender we had last year and certainly deserved it BUT again, this speaks to the brilliance of the FO and them doing their research. He JUST missed it...either way, Brooks is going to be close to both the wins (12) and plays (93.2%) every year and if he misses it, it favors our cap space. Brilliant.

I trust the front office's creativity in structuring contract's, I just don't believe they have the ability to create miracles and that is exactly what people are asking for by wanting high-priced outside free agents, at some point the other shoe has to drop, I'd rather this team sign as many of their own free agents for the long term, rather than bringing in disgruntled players from other teams.

I agree, if it's one way or the other, we need to lock up our core first. That said, who has a better financial FO than us? Look at the Redskins who continue to buy ALL of the FA's in the market every year yet are never over the cap. It can clearly be done and given we are really, just one or two key FA's away from being the best team in the NFL, now is the time to do that. You sign them now and restructure later (we did this with a few players this year)...write in clauses, escalators, etc. These players will want to come to our team now and you can build in cap friendly, incentive-based contracts.

The other thing we may be forgetting, and another poster alluded too, is to sign a few mid-level FA's that can genuinely push our current starters or promote within. But at this juncture, we should be looking to upgrade our starters big time and there are only a few places we need to do this in. One, maybe even two bigger signings should be manageable; there may be a few cuts (Whitner, Rogers, etc.) but if the FA you bring in is a serious upgrade and it has a positive domino effect, you've got to seriously consider it and making those tough moves.
Ahmad brooks, had his pay cut, His salary cap figures will go from $6.65 million to $5.05 million.
Read more: http://www.kffl.com/gnews.php?id=838819-49ers-ahmad-brooks%27-2013-salary-to-decrease#ixzz2Ko9uzC5I
I don't see the Niners making a big move for a free agent. I guess Percy Harvin is a possibility, but they've been developing their own players and they've got a boat load of draft picks this year. I expect them to spend most of their extra cap money on a long-term contract for Goldson.
Originally posted by GNielsen:
I don't see the Niners making a big move for a free agent. I guess Percy Harvin is a possibility, but they've been developing their own players and they've got a boat load of draft picks this year. I expect them to spend most of their extra cap money on a long-term contract for Goldson.

I would agree. The problem with Harvin is that you'd be trading a 2nd/3rd rounder for a 1 year rental and a hot-headed one at that. They were 1 play from a Super Bowl title despite noted deficiencies and people need to remember that. I believe the focus should continue to be adding depth and youth through the draft, supplement the current roster with complementary players and re-sign the core guys who've brought you to the NFC Championship and the Super Bowl in the last two years. Easier said than done, but that's why management gets paid too.
I think one big move is a high possibility, It really depends on who we bring back. If you bring back everybody, Goldson, Walker, Goody, Rogers...obviously we have to stand pat and hope the draft goes our way. But if you see some vets restructure for discounts, a few guys cut, and some of our free agents allowed to look for a better deal etc... My bet is they are at least taking a crack at somebody. Likely a reciever given how that position has been a walking infirmary for two years running. You dont break the bank and buy every free agent that comes down the pipe thats how you become Washington in the early 2000's. We are a team that builds through the draft because thats how you build a lasting contender. But its never a bad idea to shore up one position before the draft to help widen your options and the Wide Reciever free agent class is phenominally deep this year. I have faith in our front office to bring in one guy that would elevate that position from weakness to strenght without trashing our future...ymmv.
I can more easily imagine Greg Jennings than Percy Harvin. Jennings would be a lot cheaper and since it's only for one or two years anyway, his age isn't a big deal. He kind of reminds me of an Anquan Boldin type receiver - very strong and able to yank the ball away from a DB.
One more thing about Greg Jennings - he's used to snagging those fastballs from Rodgers so he wouldn't be unfamiliar with the kinds of fastballs Kaepernick throws.
Well Maiocco finally caught on. I was first to report Brooks' salary reduction.

http://ninercaphell.com/2013/01/30/brooks-salary-decreased-browns-increased/

http://www.ninersnation.com/2013/2/1/3938974/49ers-salary-cap-ahmad-brooks-tarell-brown-donte-whitner-contract

https://twitter.com/AB83Rules/status/296667810103447553

https://twitter.com/AB83Rules/status/296862090562510848

Not trying to steal anyone's thunder, just want to get that I had the info before Maiocco had it.
AB your work on here is amazing, we can't thank you enough.
Originally posted by LottOfDefense:
AB your work on here is amazing, we can't thank you enough.

No thank you, without you guys opening up in 2005 I wouldn't still be here, and be taken seriously.I've tried my best over the years of being as accurate as possible.