There are 121 users in the forums

Remember
Not a member? Register Now!

1st Down Offensive Production (4+ Yards)

Guys, I can't seem to find my previous tracking post on this topic but for those who remember, I have been tracking our first down production since the NFCCG last year. Why? I found a pretty significant pattern in that game that prompted me to track for 2012-Superbowl. While people focused on the 1 for 13 on 3rd downs, like in golf, I found it was the Tee-Shot that put you in a poor position on your 2nd and 3rd shots.

What I defined as successful production on first down was 4+ yards. That allows the OC to either pass or rush on 2nd downs AND helps put you in manageable positions to convert 3rd downs and keep the chains moving.

Therefore, I will highlight our offense in two phases: 1) offense production under Alex and 2) offense production under CK.

This is NOT designed to compare the two QB's per se but to highlight the changes/evolution of our offense before and after the switch (in QB's and offensive styles).

* this is based off memory (since I can't find the original post but it had a breakout of each game also and discussion)

Offensive 1st Down Production (Overall):
*Alex = 62% (through the first 8 games) - lead the NFL just ahead of GB at the time
Colin = 52% (through the last 10 games through the playoffs)

Breakdown:
Week 11 (Chicago) - 14/23 = 61%
Week 12 (New Orleans) - 12/25 = 48%
Week 13 (St. Louis) - 15/30 = 50%
Week 14 (Miami) - 16/26 = 62%
Week 15 (New England) - 17/32 = 53%
Week 16 (Seattle) - 13/24 = 54%
Week 17 (Arizona) - 11/29 = 38%
Week DIV (Green Bay) - 17/34 = 50%
Week NFCCG (Atlanta) - 14/27 = 52%
Week Superbowl (Baltimore) - 18/31 = 58%


Discussion:
This is a significant drop off in first down production and may have contributed to many slow starts. IMHO, it speaks to a young QB, pre-snap reads and alignments, time/clock-management, evolution in offensive styles, etc. As a team, in the second half of the season, our best output was 62%, which was our "average" the first half of the year. And once again, it highlights our big struggles against the NFC West teams. We also seem to average only about (14-15) successful attempts of 4+ yards on first downs a game while giving ourselves about the same number of chances (28). This means while we make up for it often on 2nd and 3rd downs (total chances a game), we're putting ourselves behind the 8-ball early in the series and makes us more predictable which good teams can exploit. This is obvious when you watch the first quarters of many games. Another trend was that under the Alex offense under Roman, the mass majority of our explosive plays and scoring came on first down. I believe this was due to teams not knowing if we'll run or pass out of that down and the experience of Alex in this offense and overall. This area was also a clear focus in the off season as noted by Alex himself. In the Colin/Roman offense, there is a very significant drop off in this area as well.

So above all, this is clearly an area we need to improve upon along with RZ offense, overall play-calling, time/clock-management, pre-snap reads/experience, etc. I think Roman plays the most significant factor here re: proper game-planning for opponents, Harbaugh for ensuring these plays are practiced to perfection and CK/offense in execution. Team game!
[ Edited by NCommand on Feb 10, 2013 at 11:12 AM ]
Thank NC--interesting stats. I'm sure there will be discussion about QB ability to make up for a limited first down efficiency on second and third down, which I would think CK would have a decisive advantage due to his running and arm strength. But, the need to become more efficient on first down can't be denied and I agree that a young QB has a disadvantage when reading defenses.

Am curious about the slow starts...not sure that is first down inefficiency or attitude of the coaches. I believe they tended to play conservatively until the game was getting away from them then opened up when they were behind. They may change this next year.
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Thank NC--interesting stats. I'm sure there will be discussion about QB ability to make up for a limited first down efficiency on second and third down, which I would think CK would have a decisive advantage due to his running and arm strength. But, the need to become more efficient on first down can't be denied and I agree that a young QB has a disadvantage when reading defenses.

Am curious about the slow starts...not sure that is first down inefficiency or attitude of the coaches. I believe they tended to play conservatively until the game was getting away from them then opened up when they were behind. They may change this next year.

Thanks for reading!

I think the poor production on this down in particular speaks is a reflection of poor preparation, game-planning, our one-read passing option, readiness, nerves, etc. Obviously, when we get into a groove, we're pretty well unstoppable. Sadly, while the stats overall look pretty good for the Superbowl, we all know most of that was made up in the second half.
What about 2nd and 3rd down production? I have no idea, but I am curious.
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Thank NC--interesting stats. I'm sure there will be discussion about QB ability to make up for a limited first down efficiency on second and third down, which I would think CK would have a decisive advantage due to his running and arm strength. But, the need to become more efficient on first down can't be denied and I agree that a young QB has a disadvantage when reading defenses.

Am curious about the slow starts...not sure that is first down inefficiency or attitude of the coaches. I believe they tended to play conservatively until the game was getting away from them then opened up when they were behind. They may change this next year.


I think its pretty obvious the running game was better on first down with Alex. I'm sure this is what accounts for the first down production numbers. The real question is, "Why was the running game (from the running backs) better under Alex?"
^ BrianGo, for this purpose, no, I only focused on 1st down production for obvious reasons. But you are more than welcome to obtain that info and add it here.

My guess re: the running game being better the first half of the year, it's probably b/c of Hunter and the perfect balance he brought to Gore (plus he was on fire). Alex had much more experience (pre-snap reads, alignments, experience in our offense, personnel, etc). We were more of a run-focused team the too. I'm sure the game planning was very different too...even had to be dumbed down for a while until CK gained more experience. And don't forget, Gore/James/OL had to adjust to running from the Q formations.
[ Edited by NCommand on Feb 10, 2013 at 1:20 PM ]
Yes, the run game changed twice--when Hunter went down and again when CK became a big part of the run game. It gave the offense more flexibility but decreased Gore's impact for a while. Toward the end of the year we saw Gore and CK settling into a more comfortable compromise, giving the ball to Gore more rather than CK taking off himself. Worked great as teams began to key on CK he changed up and handed off. Should be even more dynamic next year with Hunter back, James with experience and all of them with more experience working together.
What COmmand is getting at is our miserable 3rd down conversions, which implicitly improve if you make 4-6 yrs on first down. Yes the hunter thing hurt us bad...way more than many realize. Then the qb change, and it just took time to get it right. Then there is the Kap thing with legs to run. This was great , but not so in SEA. The Ds have already figured out that you just keep your two DEs for containment, and push the rush up the middle. Oddly GB must not have watched the tape. But SEA sure as hell did.

Putting a fine point on this, my money goes down on roman, who could be brilliant(NE) and awful(SEA). He should be a helper to JH, who runs the O during the week, but by gametime, I want JH calling the plays. Now, he is green as grass , like roman, but both learned from mistakes this yr. Colin learned from mistakes this yr. Fangio the same. So on 1st down this season, 2013, I also hope we concentrate on that 4-6 yd avg, which will make the chains move come 3rd down. Just a guess....roman was playing it way too conservatively with a new qb who started only 1/3 of our games. It is amazing he played so well. Kap can come out of this being twice the qb RG 3 is. But it is going to take some way better playcalling, and that is why i would like to see roman run the O during the week, and JH call the plays on Sun...just like BW did and bellicheat stlll does.
Also, i would like to know that JH is calling the game plans on both O and D and not farming them out. Let fangio and roman run it during the week, but use JH's game plan and calls. I think, Command, that is what gets us 4-6 yds on first down.
Pas ^^^ interesting perspective. For the longest time, I have wanted Alex to call his own plays ala Manning, etc. That said, I have longed for the days when we had a HC/QB work together ala Walsh/Montana. The thing we have harped on all year is the compartmentalization of the offensive game plans and waiting to see what the defense does and THEN adjust. As a result, we seem to lose any flow or fail to maintain it from start to finish. With all the talk of the final four plays, maybe we'll see some additional evolution is HOW we call the plays next year...fingers crossed!
Why are we still comparing these two? Alex is going bye bye and kap is our starter of the future. Comparing kap to the rest of the nfl is far more appropriate than a second string qb
Originally posted by SJniner7:
Why are we still comparing these two? Alex is going bye bye and kap is our starter of the future. Comparing kap to the rest of the nfl is far more appropriate than a second string qb


Both played approximately half a year so it's natural to compare the two. CK is a great QB in the making but he has areas to work on and Smith is an example of a QB who has learned some of the intangibles CK needs to work on...what is the problem here?
Originally posted by SJniner7:
Why are we still comparing these two? Alex is going bye bye and kap is our starter of the future. Comparing kap to the rest of the nfl is far more appropriate than a second string qb

Obviously you didn't read this AT ALL: "This is NOT designed to compare the two QB's per se but to highlight the changes/evolution of our offense before and after the switch (in QB's and offensive styles)."

Come on man. Let's get back on topic and enough of the insults (on Alex).
Originally posted by NCommand:
Guys, I can't seem to find my previous tracking post on this topic but for those who remember, I have been tracking our first down production since the NFCCG last year. Why? I found a pretty significant pattern in that game that prompted me to track for 2012-Superbowl. While people focused on the 1 for 13 on 3rd downs, like in golf, I found it was the Tee-Shot that put you in a poor position on your 2nd and 3rd shots.

What I defined as successful production on first down was 4+ yards. That allows the OC to either pass or rush on 2nd downs AND helps put you in manageable positions to convert 3rd downs and keep the chains moving.

Therefore, I will highlight our offense in two phases: 1) offense production under Alex and 2) offense production under CK.

This is NOT designed to compare the two QB's per se but to highlight the changes/evolution of our offense before and after the switch (in QB's and offensive styles).

* this is based off memory (since I can't find the original post but it had a breakout of each game also and discussion)

Offensive 1st Down Production (Overall):
*Alex = 62% (through the first 8 games) - lead the NFL just ahead of GB at the time
Colin = 52% (through the last 10 games through the playoffs)

Breakdown:
Week 11 (Chicago) - 14/23 = 61%
Week 12 (New Orleans) - 12/25 = 48%
Week 13 (St. Louis) - 15/30 = 50%
Week 14 (Miami) - 16/26 = 62%
Week 15 (New England) - 17/32 = 53%
Week 16 (Seattle) - 13/24 = 54%
Week 17 (Arizona) - 11/29 = 38%
Week DIV (Green Bay) - 17/34 = 50%
Week NFCCG (Atlanta) - 14/27 = 52%
Week Superbowl (Baltimore) - 18/31 = 58%


Discussion:
This is a significant drop off in first down production and may have contributed to many slow starts. IMHO, it speaks to a young QB, pre-snap reads and alignments, time/clock-management, evolution in offensive styles, etc. As a team, in the second half of the season, our best output was 62%, which was our "average" the first half of the year. And once again, it highlights our big struggles against the NFC West teams. We also seem to average only about (14-15) successful attempts of 4+ yards on first downs a game while giving ourselves about the same number of chances (28). This means while we make up for it often on 2nd and 3rd downs (total chances a game), we're putting ourselves behind the 8-ball early in the series and makes us more predictable which good teams can exploit. This is obvious when you watch the first quarters of many games. Another trend was that under the Alex offense under Roman, the mass majority of our explosive plays and scoring came on first down. I believe this was due to teams not knowing if we'll run or pass out of that down and the experience of Alex in this offense and overall. This area was also a clear focus in the off season as noted by Alex himself. In the Colin/Roman offense, there is a very significant drop off in this area as well.

So above all, this is clearly an area we need to improve upon along with RZ offense, overall play-calling, time/clock-management, pre-snap reads/experience, etc. I think Roman plays the most significant factor here re: proper game-planning for opponents, Harbaugh for ensuring these plays are practiced to perfection and CK/offense in execution. Team game!

Only reason I was skeptical and still am about the move, "experience". Don't wan't to turn this into one of those threads so I'll leave it at that.

But good post! And I do think all these things will get better once we have a chance to really work on things. I think once we can start just getting up to the line and playing football our offense will take a step forward. Right now everything is still a learning experience for both the coaches and for Kaep. Kaep will eventually learn and have the freedom to beat that cover0. The offense will become crisper and quicker. Hopefully some added WR help will get signed as well. Manningham is great, but imo we still need help.
Originally posted by JiksJuicy:
But good post! And I do think all these things will get better once we have a chance to really work on things. I think once we can start just getting up to the line and playing football our offense will take a step forward. Right now everything is still a learning experience for both the coaches and for Kaep. Kaep will eventually learn and have the freedom to beat that cover0. The offense will become crisper and quicker. Hopefully some added WR help will get signed as well. Manningham is great, but imo we still need help.

Lots of talk today on NFL Network re: how good Percy Harvin would be a fit for us re: returning kicks/punts as well as being ideal running out of the Q formations (in the backfield and out on the edges). I feel we have guys that could have been used like this as well with Manningham, Jenkins and Williams but we didn't use them that way. If we did pick him up, I still feel we need a D.Bowe to be paired opposite of Crabtree. Can you imagine the options we'd have esp. if Hunter comes back healthy and with the growth of James. And Gore finished the season 100% healthy. Very nice...would create much chances on first downs.
Originally posted by JiksJuicy:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Guys, I can't seem to find my previous tracking post on this topic but for those who remember, I have been tracking our first down production since the NFCCG last year. Why? I found a pretty significant pattern in that game that prompted me to track for 2012-Superbowl. While people focused on the 1 for 13 on 3rd downs, like in golf, I found it was the Tee-Shot that put you in a poor position on your 2nd and 3rd shots.

What I defined as successful production on first down was 4+ yards. That allows the OC to either pass or rush on 2nd downs AND helps put you in manageable positions to convert 3rd downs and keep the chains moving.

Therefore, I will highlight our offense in two phases: 1) offense production under Alex and 2) offense production under CK.

This is NOT designed to compare the two QB's per se but to highlight the changes/evolution of our offense before and after the switch (in QB's and offensive styles).

* this is based off memory (since I can't find the original post but it had a breakout of each game also and discussion)

Offensive 1st Down Production (Overall):
*Alex = 62% (through the first 8 games) - lead the NFL just ahead of GB at the time
Colin = 52% (through the last 10 games through the playoffs)

Breakdown:
Week 11 (Chicago) - 14/23 = 61%
Week 12 (New Orleans) - 12/25 = 48%
Week 13 (St. Louis) - 15/30 = 50%
Week 14 (Miami) - 16/26 = 62%
Week 15 (New England) - 17/32 = 53%
Week 16 (Seattle) - 13/24 = 54%
Week 17 (Arizona) - 11/29 = 38%
Week DIV (Green Bay) - 17/34 = 50%
Week NFCCG (Atlanta) - 14/27 = 52%
Week Superbowl (Baltimore) - 18/31 = 58%


Discussion:
This is a significant drop off in first down production and may have contributed to many slow starts. IMHO, it speaks to a young QB, pre-snap reads and alignments, time/clock-management, evolution in offensive styles, etc. As a team, in the second half of the season, our best output was 62%, which was our "average" the first half of the year. And once again, it highlights our big struggles against the NFC West teams. We also seem to average only about (14-15) successful attempts of 4+ yards on first downs a game while giving ourselves about the same number of chances (28). This means while we make up for it often on 2nd and 3rd downs (total chances a game), we're putting ourselves behind the 8-ball early in the series and makes us more predictable which good teams can exploit. This is obvious when you watch the first quarters of many games. Another trend was that under the Alex offense under Roman, the mass majority of our explosive plays and scoring came on first down. I believe this was due to teams not knowing if we'll run or pass out of that down and the experience of Alex in this offense and overall. This area was also a clear focus in the off season as noted by Alex himself. In the Colin/Roman offense, there is a very significant drop off in this area as well.

So above all, this is clearly an area we need to improve upon along with RZ offense, overall play-calling, time/clock-management, pre-snap reads/experience, etc. I think Roman plays the most significant factor here re: proper game-planning for opponents, Harbaugh for ensuring these plays are practiced to perfection and CK/offense in execution. Team game!

Only reason I was skeptical and still am about the move, "experience". Don't wan't to turn this into one of those threads so I'll leave it at that.

But good post! And I do think all these things will get better once we have a chance to really work on things. I think once we can start just getting up to the line and playing football our offense will take a step forward. Right now everything is still a learning experience for both the coaches and for Kaep. Kaep will eventually learn and have the freedom to beat that cover0. The offense will become crisper and quicker. Hopefully some added WR help will get signed as well. Manningham is great, but imo we still need help.

Only a matter of time before it turns into one of those threads.....