Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
Originally posted by rk1642:
Man by the comments I'm reading in here there is no stoping us next year. Should be a breeze and a Superbowl win for sure.
We're a bunch of homers and can't see anything but what we desire. If we don't think it will make a difference that teams now have film and an offeason to prepare for us we are kidding ourselfs.
Nothing in the NFL is as easy as some seem to think. Look at Cam and his rookie year and then last year. Its very hard to keep the D in the dark for very long.
Jim will adjust as well but I think we all saw how teams are gonna attack the read option and or pistol. They are gonna have a lb or ss take Kaep and hit him no matter what everytime we run that. They may or may not be big hits but they will be hits on our qb and they will add up in the long run. I don't like the idea of our qb taking hits so I hope we don't run that O very often (maybe just redzone).
So another words, opposing D's will have to pick their poision but so will we if we want a healthy qb for the long run.
So in other words, opposing defenses are smart enough to make the adjustment, but we aren't? I'm guessing you believe the 49ers are going to expose Kaep to getting hit like that constantly. That isn't what people are saying. Even the most optimistic person hasn't stated that from what I've read. You do realize you can pass out of that formation, because it is just that, a formation. And given CK's skillset, he's good enough to stay in the pocket and simply beat teams with his arm. To top it off, it's not like he's passing it to PJ Fleck and Bryan Gilmore for crying out loud.
rk, your Cam Newton argument really is an apples are oranges affair. Put in each teams' third string quarter back and the Niners will beat Carolina 8-9 out of 10 times, right? The Niners are an all around better team with a competent O line, better skill players, and a better defense. Put differently, Newton is
the Panthers. The Niners, on the other hand, demonstrated that they were an excellent football team with Smith at the helm. When you add in the dual threat nature of Kaep, you create nightmares for defenses. As LifelongNiner and I were discussing above, he is an outstanding runner and a very good passer. If you hedge the defense one way, you're going to get beat the other. It's like having Steve Young all over again--including the rocket arm that needs to be tamed a bit.
Regarding your thoughts about injury. I was in your camp regarding the vulnerability of dual-threat QBs. After all, watching Young's career cut short as he attempted to do what Newton is doing during the start of salary cap hell was painful to watch, and it left a lasting impression. Granted, there isn't a lot of data out there just yet, but what data there is suggests that the conventional wisdom is wrong about dual-threat QBs. This article reached some interesting conclusions that went a long way toward putting my mind at ease: http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2013/02/quarterback_injuries_are_mobile_qbs_like_colin_kaepernick_more_injury_prone.html
More importantly, Kaep's speed tends to keep him safe when he runs and the rules are dramatically different than when Young was playing. It's early days, and there isn't a satisfactory data set yet, but it seems reasonable to me not to jump to the conclusion that dual-threat QBs are running on borrowed time. Bluntly, it's a dangerous game whether you're "safely" ensconced in the pocket or scooting down the sideline in a foot race against safeties that want to kill you.
Finally, regarding your suggestions of hommerism, ah hell, there is a little bit of that at play.
But the homers' side of the argument strikes me as a lot more level-headed. You're suggesting that swapping in a wet behind the ears quarterback at mid-season and doing a complete on the fly renovation of the offense went seamlessly and represented the sort of offense we can expect to see in the years ahead. After all, your contention that defenses will compensate is largely dependent upon the Niners' and Kaep's development curve remaining fairly static. That doesn't seem to be very accurate to me.
Whenever you're swapping out a QB mid-season and retooling the offense mid-stride, you are in a transition year. The lack of consistency and all around scruffiness of the offense's performance with Kaep pretty clearly demonstrates that Kaep wasn't plugged in as seamlessly as some suggest. I don't think we have to turn on our homer vision to suggest that the offense will be much improved next season once the staff is able to optimize the offense for his skill set. Moreover, Kaep will be much better prepared, as will the rest of the offense. It seems manifestly reasonable to suggest that we've only seen sparks of what this offense is capable of doing (and with a receiver corps yet again decimated by the black plague). In fact, we haven't seen it play at a consistent level throughout a game yet.
Now, I can't speak for LifelongNiner, but I'm not suggesting that we'll breeze to the Super Bowl next season. As you suggest, there's a lot that can go wrong over the course of a season. However, it seems very reasonable to suggest that the offense will be much
better next season, and if you're willing to agree to that, I think it follows that we've got to be among the favorites to go deep in next year's playoffs. I think you can reach homer-ish conclusions without falling victim to hommerism.