Credence for Steve Young's Comments

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by SFTifoso:

He's more of a threat scrambling on broken pass plays than from the pistol. He's the type of player that if take one aspect from his game away, he will just beat you in another way. Pick your poison, really.

It's not about the pistol. It's about designed runs for CK. Do you see anything else besides the read option out of the pistol for CK? Because that's already been stopped.

The 49ers don't really run a lot of designed runs for Kap anyway. In fact, even against Green Bay, most of Kap's runs did not come on designed plays but rather on Kap responding to man-on-man coverage that opened up huge spaces for him to run. In other words, it wasn't simply the pistol that beat Green Bay; it was Kap. Then we saw what happens when defenses try to take away his runs. He kills you from the pocket with his arm strength. And even looking at the Super Bowl, Kap was able to punish the Ravens using both his legs and his arm. That's why I'm not really all that worried about defenses "figuring out" the pistol, as the effectiveness of the 49ers offense is because of Kap's freakish physical skills, and not simply because of a particular formation.

Originally posted by defenderDX:
does it matter? the dude can throw and his mentality isn't to be run first

I think it does. I want a 4.5 40 running wild down lanes engineered, designed to be available. That's what makes CK CK. How do we keep that going, safely?

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by defenderDX:
does it matter? the dude can throw and his mentality isn't to be run first

I think it does. I want a 4.5 40 running wild down lanes engineered, designed to be available. That's what makes CK CK. How do we keep that going, safely?

How about what makes CK CK is his amazing ability to throw with an incredible arm? To be able to fire lasers accurately into tight windows? If they take away his legs, he beats them with his arm. If they take away his arm, he'll beat them with his legs. Need I say more?

Originally posted by real9erfan:
The 49ers don't really run a lot of designed runs for Kap anyway. In fact, even against Green Bay, most of Kap's runs did not come on designed plays but rather on Kap responding to man-on-man coverage that opened up huge spaces for him to run. In other words, it wasn't simply the pistol that beat Green Bay; it was Kap. Then we saw what happens when defenses try to take away his runs. He kills you from the pocket with his arm strength. And even looking at the Super Bowl, Kap was able to punish the Ravens using both his legs and his arm. That's why I'm not really all that worried about defenses "figuring out" the pistol, as the effectiveness of the 49ers offense is because of Kap's freakish physical skills, and not simply because of a particular formation.

I think over a third of his yards against Green Bay came off read option. So you're saying improvised running will be his forte moving forward.

Sure, could be. Our running game might suffer as the keeper option becomes more feint than reality.

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:

Originally posted by rk1642:
Man by the comments I'm reading in here there is no stoping us next year. Should be a breeze and a Superbowl win for sure.

We're a bunch of homers and can't see anything but what we desire. If we don't think it will make a difference that teams now have film and an offeason to prepare for us we are kidding ourselfs.

Nothing in the NFL is as easy as some seem to think. Look at Cam and his rookie year and then last year. Its very hard to keep the D in the dark for very long.

Jim will adjust as well but I think we all saw how teams are gonna attack the read option and or pistol. They are gonna have a lb or ss take Kaep and hit him no matter what everytime we run that. They may or may not be big hits but they will be hits on our qb and they will add up in the long run. I don't like the idea of our qb taking hits so I hope we don't run that O very often (maybe just redzone).

So another words, opposing D's will have to pick their poision but so will we if we want a healthy qb for the long run.

So in other words, opposing defenses are smart enough to make the adjustment, but we aren't? I'm guessing you believe the 49ers are going to expose Kaep to getting hit like that constantly. That isn't what people are saying. Even the most optimistic person hasn't stated that from what I've read. You do realize you can pass out of that formation, because it is just that, a formation. And given CK's skillset, he's good enough to stay in the pocket and simply beat teams with his arm. To top it off, it's not like he's passing it to PJ Fleck and Bryan Gilmore for crying out loud.

rk, your Cam Newton argument really is an apples are oranges affair. Put in each teams' third string quarter back and the Niners will beat Carolina 8-9 out of 10 times, right? The Niners are an all around better team with a competent O line, better skill players, and a better defense. Put differently, Newton is the Panthers. The Niners, on the other hand, demonstrated that they were an excellent football team with Smith at the helm. When you add in the dual threat nature of Kaep, you create nightmares for defenses. As LifelongNiner and I were discussing above, he is an outstanding runner and a very good passer. If you hedge the defense one way, you're going to get beat the other. It's like having Steve Young all over again--including the rocket arm that needs to be tamed a bit.

Regarding your thoughts about injury. I was in your camp regarding the vulnerability of dual-threat QBs. After all, watching Young's career cut short as he attempted to do what Newton is doing during the start of salary cap hell was painful to watch, and it left a lasting impression. Granted, there isn't a lot of data out there just yet, but what data there is suggests that the conventional wisdom is wrong about dual-threat QBs. This article reached some interesting conclusions that went a long way toward putting my mind at ease: http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2013/02/quarterback_injuries_are_mobile_qbs_like_colin_kaepernick_more_injury_prone.html

More importantly, Kaep's speed tends to keep him safe when he runs and the rules are dramatically different than when Young was playing. It's early days, and there isn't a satisfactory data set yet, but it seems reasonable to me not to jump to the conclusion that dual-threat QBs are running on borrowed time. Bluntly, it's a dangerous game whether you're "safely" ensconced in the pocket or scooting down the sideline in a foot race against safeties that want to kill you.

Finally, regarding your suggestions of hommerism, ah hell, there is a little bit of that at play. But the homers' side of the argument strikes me as a lot more level-headed. You're suggesting that swapping in a wet behind the ears quarterback at mid-season and doing a complete on the fly renovation of the offense went seamlessly and represented the sort of offense we can expect to see in the years ahead. After all, your contention that defenses will compensate is largely dependent upon the Niners' and Kaep's development curve remaining fairly static. That doesn't seem to be very accurate to me.


Whenever you're swapping out a QB mid-season and retooling the offense mid-stride, you are in a transition year. The lack of consistency and all around scruffiness of the offense's performance with Kaep pretty clearly demonstrates that Kaep wasn't plugged in as seamlessly as some suggest. I don't think we have to turn on our homer vision to suggest that the offense will be much improved next season once the staff is able to optimize the offense for his skill set. Moreover, Kaep will be much better prepared, as will the rest of the offense. It seems manifestly reasonable to suggest that we've only seen sparks of what this offense is capable of doing (and with a receiver corps yet again decimated by the black plague). In fact, we haven't seen it play at a consistent level throughout a game yet.


Now, I can't speak for LifelongNiner, but I'm not suggesting that we'll breeze to the Super Bowl next season. As you suggest, there's a lot that can go wrong over the course of a season. However, it seems very reasonable to suggest that the offense will be much better next season, and if you're willing to agree to that, I think it follows that we've got to be among the favorites to go deep in next year's playoffs. I think you can reach homer-ish conclusions without falling victim to hommerism.

Originally posted by tmpluff:

Originally posted by ChazBoner:

meh, not worried. CK has the ability to beat teams with his arm. Just need some threats downfield.

+1

+2

^^^ awesome post Bubba!

Originally posted by JoseCortez:

What don't people understand? The pistol is just one formation that kap can use. That's not his limitation. He threw for over 300 yards after the ravens took the run away from him. He can evolve into a great drop back qb if necessary.

This this this this


Our offense is versatile, teams can plan all week for the pistol and we won't run any of it. Kap can run really any offense!

Adjusting to the Pistol is easier said than done.

And BTW, the Pistol is a formation, not an offensive style. You can run anything out if it. Its just meant to disguise things.

We need to worry about the defense much more. The offense will be fine.

Originally posted by BubbaParisMVP:
rk, your Cam Newton argument really is an apples are oranges affair. Put in each teams' third string quarter back and the Niners will beat Carolina 8-9 out of 10 times, right? The Niners are an all around better team with a competent O line, better skill players, and a better defense. Put differently, Newton is the Panthers. The Niners, on the other hand, demonstrated that they were an excellent football team with Smith at the helm. When you add in the dual threat nature of Kaep, you create nightmares for defenses. As LifelongNiner and I were discussing above, he is an outstanding runner and a very good passer. If you hedge the defense one way, you're going to get beat the other. It's like having Steve Young all over again--including the rocket arm that needs to be tamed a bit.

Regarding your thoughts about injury. I was in your camp regarding the vulnerability of dual-threat QBs. After all, watching Young's career cut short as he attempted to do what Newton is doing during the start of salary cap hell was painful to watch, and it left a lasting impression. Granted, there isn't a lot of data out there just yet, but what data there is suggests that the conventional wisdom is wrong about dual-threat QBs. This article reached some interesting conclusions that went a long way toward putting my mind at ease: http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2013/02/quarterback_injuries_are_mobile_qbs_like_colin_kaepernick_more_injury_prone.html

More importantly, Kaep's speed tends to keep him safe when he runs and the rules are dramatically different than when Young was playing. It's early days, and there isn't a satisfactory data set yet, but it seems reasonable to me not to jump to the conclusion that dual-threat QBs are running on borrowed time. Bluntly, it's a dangerous game whether you're "safely" ensconced in the pocket or scooting down the sideline in a foot race against safeties that want to kill you.

Finally, regarding your suggestions of hommerism, ah hell, there is a little bit of that at play. But the homers' side of the argument strikes me as a lot more level-headed. You're suggesting that swapping in a wet behind the ears quarterback at mid-season and doing a complete on the fly renovation of the offense went seamlessly and represented the sort of offense we can expect to see in the years ahead. After all, your contention that defenses will compensate is largely dependent upon the Niners' and Kaep's development curve remaining fairly static. That doesn't seem to be very accurate to me.


Whenever you're swapping out a QB mid-season and retooling the offense mid-stride, you are in a transition year. The lack of consistency and all around scruffiness of the offense's performance with Kaep pretty clearly demonstrates that Kaep wasn't plugged in as seamlessly as some suggest. I don't think we have to turn on our homer vision to suggest that the offense will be much improved next season once the staff is able to optimize the offense for his skill set. Moreover, Kaep will be much better prepared, as will the rest of the offense. It seems manifestly reasonable to suggest that we've only seen sparks of what this offense is capable of doing (and with a receiver corps yet again decimated by the black plague). In fact, we haven't seen it play at a consistent level throughout a game yet.


Now, I can't speak for LifelongNiner, but I'm not suggesting that we'll breeze to the Super Bowl next season. As you suggest, there's a lot that can go wrong over the course of a season. However, it seems very reasonable to suggest that the offense will be much better next season, and if you're willing to agree to that, I think it follows that we've got to be among the favorites to go deep in next year's playoffs. I think you can reach homer-ish conclusions without falling victim to hommerism.

I couldn't make heads or tails of that slate article. What and who were they talking about? They need to list the non mobile qb's being used. They should look at overall longevity as being a good determinant of whether mobile qb's get dinged more. In addition, they should control for quality of offensive line, and do a compare. That should be the first way to sort the data. Find all the qb's that have suffered 1.7 - 2.0 sacks per game started. Now divide them into mobile / non mobile. Which bin started more games? and so on for 2-2.3, 1-1.5, or whatever, and so on.

This backwards looking analysis is irrelevant anyway. It's missing the distinction between a "mobile" qb and a qb running designed rush plays. Has anyone really put the latter concept into the offense to any degree before last year (i.e. Tebow type shotguns, the pistol this year). So, there is very little data for that. After what happened to RGIII, it's likely to remain that way.

Teams adjusting on having better containment of the pistol offense is A GIVEN in pro football. One can't really expect the 49ers to consistently be as effective running it next year.

I'm just glad we have the TALENT to win, score points, and be more of a product of our players running the scheme than the pistol scheme itself.

This whole Pistol rave reminds a lot about the Wildcat hype a few years ago. Remember our own Jimmy Raye Taser? lol

Nonetheless, Kaep has the tools and athleticism to where he doesn't need to rely on the Pistol formation to be productive. I've seen Kaep run and throw out of conventional formations just as effectively.

Originally posted by 9erfanAUS:
This whole Pistol rave reminds a lot about the Wildcat hype a few years ago. Remember our own Jimmy Raye Taser? lol

Nonetheless, Kaep has the tools and athleticism to where he doesn't need to rely on the Pistol formation to be productive. I've seen Kaep run and throw out of conventional formations just as effectively.

Ha! I was just thinking of the WildCat myself. That was the talk a couple seasons ago and now it appears its a distant memory.

Kaep can play in any system; classic drop back, shot gun, or pistol he can do it all. The pistol is just another element to give opposing defenses something else to think about. Highly disappointed how our season ended but I'm f**king ecstatic that we have a qb who can potentially be the best

The last three posts are spot on. But isn't this a problem? You can't expect the athlete to carry the team without a system. Won't bring home the bacon. If the Pistol is going to recede, what is our identity as an offense? What's the system? I think that maybe this is what I've been feeling. A formation isn't really a system; athletic capability isn't a system either. What's our vision? A dizzying array of different looks and sets isn't a system. It's what happens when you don't have a system. What are we about offensively? 2011 our system was smashmouth D. 2012 our system was superman behind center and the newfangled pistol. 2013?