Finally - Empirical evidence that Michael Crabtree is an elite Wide Receiver

nickbradley · 2013-01-24T06:28:46-08:00

The good people at Pro Football Focus have introduced a new measure of just how good a receiver is: yards per route run (YPRR). YPRR measures the number of yards a receiver gas gained per ROUTE RUN. They don't show how they did it, but PFF.com takes the number of snaps a WR has and subtracts the plays where the team ran the ball (and the WR just blocked). When you do this, you get a very clear picture of the upper tier of NFL Wide Receivers. Quoting PFF: "Michael Crabtree played like an elite receiver all season long, he just didn't play in a pass-heavy offense. Of the Top 5 receivers in YPRR, Crabtree's 433 snaps in route are the fewest by 98 even though he didn't miss a game. For the season he ran three less routes thanMichael Jenkins yet totaled 656 more yards. The way Crabtree finished out the season with Colin Kaepernick at quarterback suggests things are pointing up for the fourth-year wideout. Crabtree caught 41 balls for 595 yards and a YPRR of 3.15 in the last seven games of the season with Kaepernick at the helm." So, wow. yeah. Crabtree had the same yards per route run as Calvin Johnson. PFF believes that Brandon Marshall was the best receiver in 2012, even though Andre Johnson had a higher YPRR. They don't address Johnson directly, but they do discuss "targeting rate", which is targets per route run. By that metric, Brandon Marshall was Welker-esque: Cutler threw the ball to him on 12% of his routes -- that means that Marshall beat his man and got open...a lot. Andre Johnson was 10%. As for Crabtree, his target rate was 10.7%. so, I think that PFF's assessment of Crabtree is correct: "things are pointing up for the fourth-year wideout." https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/01/24/signature-stats-yards-per-route-run/ Rank Name Team Targets Yards Snaps in Route YPRR target rate 1 Andre Johnson HST 159 1598 531 3.01 9.95% 2 Brandon Marshall CHI 181 1510 547 2.76 11.99% 3 Calvin Johnson DET 199 1964 771 2.55 10.13% 4 Michael Crabtree SF 118 1105 433 2.55 10.68% 5 Demaryius Thomas DEN 138 1430 571 2.5 9.65% 6 Vincent Jackson TB 137 1384 591 2.34 9.90% 7 A.J. Green CIN 158 1350 585 2.31 11.70% 8 Cecil Shorts JAX 101 979 426 2.3 10.32% 9 Randall Cobb GB 102 954 423 2.26 10.69% 10 Steve L. Smith CAR 127 1174 527 2.23 10.82% 11 Wes Welker NE 166 1354 619 2.19 12.26% 12 Lance Moore NO 100 1041 482 2.16 9.61% 13 Dez Bryant DAL 137 1383 652 2.12 9.91% 14 Danario Alexander SD 54 658 314 2.1 8.21% 15 Roddy White ATL 138 1351 648 2.08 10.21%

Jan 24, 2013 at 6:30 AM

SFL49ER
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Posts: 4,952

Been saying this ish fo dayz doe

Jan 24, 2013 at 6:32 AM

OKC49erFan
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Posts: 7,426

Crabtree has been a different player, and it was very evident at the start of this season.
Stronger, faster, quicker, and with better hands, Crabtree has become the receiver we all thought we were getting.
I don't think he is done developing either.

Really excited for him, and the things he will accomplish.

[ Edited by OKC49erFan on Jan 24, 2013 at 6:32 AM ]

Jan 24, 2013 at 6:39 AM

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by OKC49erFan:
Crabtree has been a different player, and it was very evident at the start of this season.
Stronger, faster, quicker, and with better hands, Crabtree has become the receiver we all thought we were getting.
I don't think he is done developing either.
Really excited for him, and the things he will accomplish.

Yeah. If he played with Kap all season, he would have had 1,400 yards.

For Fantasy football players, 1,350 - 1,550 is probably a realistic estimate for a healthy Crabtree in 2013

Jan 24, 2013 at 6:41 AM

almondJoy
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Posts: 384

Go King Crab!!!

Jan 24, 2013 at 6:45 AM

ninersoul
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Posts: 272

I knew the day of him arguably being an elite WR was coming ever since his 1st year cuz to me his talent was obvious.

Jan 24, 2013 at 6:54 AM

228niner
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Posts: 2,630

We got our #1, lets just hope AJ can develop into a #2

Jan 24, 2013 at 6:59 AM

olapac
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Posts: 631

Originally posted by 228niner:
We got our #1, lets just hope AJ can develop into a #2

Not trying to be snarky, but for now, I just hope he develops into a #4.

Jan 24, 2013 at 7:04 AM

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

I'd like a possession WR across from him. Chaz Schilens?

Jan 24, 2013 at 7:04 AM

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by olapac:
Not trying to be snarky, but for now, I just hope he develops into a #4.

I don't think that's snarky at all. We drafted him to play in the slot for now.

We have no possession WR.

Jan 24, 2013 at 7:06 AM

#10

swayze
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Posts: 4,226

Originally posted by olapac:

Originally posted by 228niner:
We got our #1, lets just hope AJ can develop into a #2

Not trying to be snarky, but for now, I just hope he develops into a #4.

lol he's already playing like #2

Jan 24, 2013 at 7:26 AM

#11

father49er
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Posts: 7,444

Originally posted by ninermedic:

Originally posted by olapac:

Originally posted by 228niner:
We got our #1, lets just hope AJ can develop into a #2

Not trying to be snarky, but for now, I just hope he develops into a #4.

lol he's already playing like #2

in his fantasies. i just hope he doesn't become a rashaun woods.

Jan 24, 2013 at 7:54 AM

#12

JBrack
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Posts: 2,827

You only have to watch him play to come to this conclusion imo..

Jan 24, 2013 at 8:04 AM

#13

nevadalove9ers2
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Posts: 979

What was it willis said last week? All he needed was someone to throw him the ball.

Jan 24, 2013 at 8:04 AM

#14

theduke85
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Posts: 3,745

Originally posted by father49er:
in his fantasies. i just hope he doesn't become a rashaun woods.

When he says "he's already playing like #2", he means he's playing like poo!