Week 16: Thoughts after rewatching the game...

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:
Just looking at some missed opportunities since the bye (which I think is our biggest problem) on offense:

vs STL - 4 fumbles (0 lost), missed FG, 5 sacks, 7 penalties for 66 yards, 2-11 on 3rd down
vs CHI - Zero turnovers/fumbles, 0 missed FG, 2 sacks, 5 penalites for 50 yards, 4-12 on 3rd down
@ NO - 2 turnovers, 2 missed FG, 0 sacks, 10 penalties for 68 yards, 6 for 13 on 3rd down
@ STL - 1 turnover, 1 missed FG, 3 sacks, 11 penalties for 97 yards, 8 for 19 on 3rd down
vs MIA - 1 fumble (recovered), 0 missed FG, 4 sacks, 6 penalties for 45 yards, 2 for 10 on 3rd down
vs NE - 6 fumbles (2 turnovers), 1 missed FG, 1 sack, 6 penalties for 88 yards, 5 for 14 on 3rd down
@ Sea - 2 turnovers, 1 blocked FG returned for TD, 1 sack, 6 penalties for 58 yards, 3 for 11 on 3rd down

Average since bye:
1 Turnover per game - still a good rate
2.3 sacks per game - mediocre
.9 blocked/missed FG per game - 2nd Worst FG rate in League
7.3 penalties per game for 67.4 yards per game - Bottom 5 in League
30 for 90 on 3rd down for 33.33% conversion rate - Bottom 5 in League

-I don't know what we can do about FG kicking but that alone is fatal to our SB run, major disadvantage in any close game.
-Penalties have been mostly on our D but its been bad sicne the break, we've handed the other team scoring drives because of them. Its on the coaches to clean this up. I know they need to play tough, but bottom 5 in the league?!?
-3rd down conversion rate We will lose in the 1st round with that rate...

Valrod posted this another thread:



I found it to be alarming, and probably shows why there is such heated debate about this right now.

Its funny....I read that and come away with a very different impression than others. I look and realize that Alex put up those numbers with 6 or 7 years of experience and those are Kaeps first 6 starts of his NFL career. The numbers do favor Smith, but not by much. You can also look at the opponents (cough, Bills, cough).

Go look at Russell Wilsons stats after 6 games and then look at them now.

BTW...in those redzone stats....who got credit when Alex was the starter and Kaep ran the ball into the endzone?

Just Sayin'.

Originally posted by Marvin49:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:
Just looking at some missed opportunities since the bye (which I think is our biggest problem) on offense:

vs STL - 4 fumbles (0 lost), missed FG, 5 sacks, 7 penalties for 66 yards, 2-11 on 3rd down
vs CHI - Zero turnovers/fumbles, 0 missed FG, 2 sacks, 5 penalites for 50 yards, 4-12 on 3rd down
@ NO - 2 turnovers, 2 missed FG, 0 sacks, 10 penalties for 68 yards, 6 for 13 on 3rd down
@ STL - 1 turnover, 1 missed FG, 3 sacks, 11 penalties for 97 yards, 8 for 19 on 3rd down
vs MIA - 1 fumble (recovered), 0 missed FG, 4 sacks, 6 penalties for 45 yards, 2 for 10 on 3rd down
vs NE - 6 fumbles (2 turnovers), 1 missed FG, 1 sack, 6 penalties for 88 yards, 5 for 14 on 3rd down
@ Sea - 2 turnovers, 1 blocked FG returned for TD, 1 sack, 6 penalties for 58 yards, 3 for 11 on 3rd down

Average since bye:
1 Turnover per game - still a good rate
2.3 sacks per game - mediocre
.9 blocked/missed FG per game - 2nd Worst FG rate in League
7.3 penalties per game for 67.4 yards per game - Bottom 5 in League
30 for 90 on 3rd down for 33.33% conversion rate - Bottom 5 in League

-I don't know what we can do about FG kicking but that alone is fatal to our SB run, major disadvantage in any close game.
-Penalties have been mostly on our D but its been bad sicne the break, we've handed the other team scoring drives because of them. Its on the coaches to clean this up. I know they need to play tough, but bottom 5 in the league?!?
-3rd down conversion rate We will lose in the 1st round with that rate...

Valrod posted this another thread:



I found it to be alarming, and probably shows why there is such heated debate about this right now.

Its funny....I read that and come away with a very different impression than others. I look and realize that Alex put up those numbers with 6 or 7 years of experience and those are Kaeps first 6 starts of his NFL career. The numbers do favor Smith, but not by much. You can also look at the opponents (cough, Bills, cough).

Go look at Russell Wilsons stats after 6 games and then look at them now.

BTW...in those redzone stats....who got credit when Alex was the starter and Kaep ran the ball into the endzone?

Just Sayin'.

I agree with this in a way. I think Kaep has been quite impressive for only having 6-7 starts under his belt.

However, yet again, I disagree with the move in the middle of the season. I would have loved to see Kaep start Week 1 of the 2013 season, but not in the midst of a Super Bowl or bust season. Now, Alex's stats and efficiency aren't that much better, but they are better. And right now, a little bit better goes a long ways in the Playoffs.

Props to Kaep for being the first QB in over 10 years to beat the Pats at home in December, however, I still feel more comfortable with Alex under center. As inconsistent as Alex has been his whole career, I feel Kaep is much more inconsistent at the moment. This is something I feel he can solve next season, or perhaps by 2014, but I don't think he can fix it in the post season and win 4 straight games against Playoff teams to bring home #6. I will pray and cheer my head off in the hope that he does though.

Go Niners!

Originally posted by Marvin49:

Its funny....I read that and come away with a very different impression than others. I look and realize that Alex put up those numbers with 6 or 7 years of experience and those are Kaeps first 6 starts of his NFL career. The numbers do favor Smith, but not by much. You can also look at the opponents (cough, Bills, cough).

Go look at Russell Wilsons stats after 6 games and then look at them now.

BTW...in those redzone stats....who got credit when Alex was the starter and Kaep ran the ball into the endzone?

Just Sayin'.

Not surprising, but I agree with you Marv.

I'd like to add that-

vs. CHI, @NO, @STL, vs. MIA, @NE, @SEA -is MUCH tougher than-

@GB, vs. DET, @MIN, @NYJ, vs. BUF, vs. NYG, vs. SEA, @AZ

Originally posted by ElDannMann:

I agree with this in a way. I think Kaep has been quite impressive for only having 6-7 starts under his belt.

However, yet again, I disagree with the move in the middle of the season. I would have loved to see Kaep start Week 1 of the 2013 season, but not in the midst of a Super Bowl or bust season. Now, Alex's stats and efficiency aren't that much better, but they are better. And right now, a little bit better goes a long ways in the Playoffs.

Props to Kaep for being the first QB in over 10 years to beat the Pats at home in December, however, I still feel more comfortable with Alex under center. As inconsistent as Alex has been his whole career, I feel Kaep is much more inconsistent at the moment. This is something I feel he can solve next season, or perhaps by 2014, but I don't think he can fix it in the post season and win 4 straight games against Playoff teams to bring home #6. I will pray and cheer my head off in the hope that he does though.

Go Niners!

I agree with this. Kaepernick had what, 2 TDs rushing when Alex started? How much credit does he really deserve for Alex's monstrously disproportionate percentages of goal-to-go and red zone scoring, when Smith drove them down the field for all of those to begin with? Kaepernick has been terrific for this being his first time starting. But the point is -- it's all well and good that he's close to being as effective as a legit, established QB like Alex in some areas, despite the inexperience -- but if he is not BETTER, he should NOT be in there. This gives us strong reason to believe he would've been better suited starting next year over Alex instead of now. He's not more effective at the moment, so he should be on the bench.

Originally posted by kush:

Not surprising, but I agree with you Marv.

I'd like to add that-

vs. CHI, @NO, @STL, vs. MIA, @NE, @SEA -is MUCH tougher than-

@GB, vs. DET, @MIN, @NYJ, vs. BUF, vs. NYG, vs. SEA, @AZ

Have to disagree.

Smith's average defensive rank faced: 14th
Smith's average passing defensive rank faced: 12th

Kaepernick's average defensive rank faced: 16th
Kaepernick's average passing defensive rank faced: 22nd (after today it would be 19th with him facing Arizona)

Smith has faced tougher defenses and the offense has still been more effective. Just to throw this out there as well, Smith played in two places where the 49ers have not won in 20 years (GB and MIN), and played against the Hawks with Pro Bowl CB Brandon Browner in the game. CK did not.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Have to disagree.

Smith's average defensive rank faced: 14th
Smith's average passing defensive rank faced: 12th

Kaepernick's average defensive rank faced: 16th
Kaepernick's average passing defensive rank faced: 22nd (after today it would be 19th with him facing Arizona)

Smith has faced tougher defenses and the offense has still been more effective. Just to throw this out there as well, Smith played in two places where the 49ers have not won in 20 years (GB and MIN), and played against the Hawks with Pro Bowl CB Brandon Browner in the game. CK did not.

Yeah... what he said!

... but still.. this should be a dead issue already. Can't fight what is... just try and enjoy what's left and hope for the best.