Niners morphing into offensive team

Originally posted by fryet:

I wonder if my perception of this is correct. What does everyone else think?

Comparing Kaep and Alex, the offense is now more explosive. Longer pass plays. Shorter drives that end in a TD. However, when passing the ball on first or second down, we either go 15 yards for a first, or it is second/third and ten. With Alex you would have a higher chance to be second and 5. The reason why this matters, is it is harder to call a running play on second and ten (and never on third and 10). So you run a little bit less, because the down and distance is less favorable.

So in the end, under Alex Smith, you had a more effective running game, and longer time consuming drives that would keep the defense well rested. Often they would stall out before you reached the end zone, but scoring points usually wasn't that much of an issue for the offense. With Kaep, the points come in bunches. You score quickly or you have a three and out. The running game keeps the defense honest, but you are more app to either have 3 straight runs and 3 straight passes, than run pass run.

In the end, both ways have been effective, and fast scoring has the potential to consistently put up 30 points a game.

From what I've seen Kaepernick has been getting about the same amount of pass attempts, so it's hard to say we're running the ball less. Against the Patriots we had a couple quick scoring drives. Those can tax the defense, but I think putting 7 on the board is worth it.

I couldn't disagree more. You focus on the defense and Oline, first and foremost. Unlike so many here, who expect to see a Patriots-type offense already , we have to give time for this offense to adjust and gel. I think they're doing pretty damn outstanding so far for a team that's started a NEW QB midseason. To go to NE and beat a team of that caliber in their own house with our offense, which you have to admit have never been that stellar, is unheard of.

But I never, never want this team to get away from what makes it so successful. I don't want to be the NO Saints. Or the Packers. We have a defense that took us far and if it weren't for the muffed punts, THEY could have been the ones to bring this team to the Superbowl.

Originally posted by YoungWifey:
I couldn't disagree more. You focus on the defense and Oline, first and foremost. Unlike so many here, who expect to see a Patriots-type offense already , we have to give time for this offense to adjust and gel. I think they're doing pretty damn outstanding so far for a team that's started a NEW QB midseason. To go to NE and beat a team of that caliber in their own house with our offense, which you have to admit have never been that stellar, is unheard of.

But I never, never want this team to get away from what makes it so successful. I don't want to be the NO Saints. Or the Packers. We have a defense that took us far and if it weren't for the muffed punts, THEY could have been the ones to bring this team to the Superbowl.

Teams with good offenses win more than they should, statistically.

Originally posted by USArmyParatrooper:
From what I've seen Kaepernick has been getting about the same amount of pass attempts, so it's hard to say we're running the ball less. Against the Patriots we had a couple quick scoring drives. Those can tax the defense, but I think putting 7 on the board is worth it.

I think the Loss of Hunter and the transformation to Kaepernick and the pistol offense has led to our running game not being as efficient as it was earlier in the season. Also just like last year the running game got of to a fast start and as the season went on the passing game had to become more productive to keep winning.

I dont see our team transformning at all. we have transformed at the qb position, if thats what you mean, but are still near dead last in pass yards. we just get bigger chunks now. and we run the ball. and if if you want an offensive team any more than we already have..shame on you Defense is where its at

There's no reason a championship team can't have real good defense and offense. I think the 1989 team was #1 in both offense and defense; same with the '87 team that lost in the playoffs. Every NIner Superbowl team has had at least top five offense and defense. If this team becomes more explosive and potent offensively, there's no reason we can't have both.

i think probably even if a team is more consistent defensively, the offense still has to show up to win when it counts, so has a team ever really won a sb with 1 or the other

I find it kind of ironic that the mindset among most Niner fans these days is defense, defense, defense! I don't mind it, because I love this defense, but explosive offense is a lot of fun to watch. For a long time, the Niners various teams could be counted on to give you offense, but defense was the problem. If John Brodie had played with any one of the defenses Joe Montana had, he would have gone to a couple Super Bowls for sure. And Steve Young's 1994 team had a fantastic defense. I'd like to see a top five offense to go with this defense.

Originally posted by GNielsen:
There's no reason a championship team can't have real good defense and offense. I think the 1989 team was #1 in both offense and defense; same with the '87 team that lost in the playoffs. Every NIner Superbowl team has had at least top five offense and defense. If this team becomes more explosive and potent offensively, there's no reason we can't have both.

The biggest challenge today is the salary cap. I do worry about affording Kaep if he continues to progress and wants 20 million a year. The only way to do that is to take significant money away from other parts of the team.

Originally posted by nickbradley:
Teams with good offenses win more than they should, statistically.

Because there are hardly any good defenses around anymore. It's why we're able to shut down guys like Rodgers and Brady. That's why I love having Kaep on this team. I really do think he's capable of getting into a shootout if we need to.

Originally posted by 49amane:
i think probably even if a team is more consistent defensively, the offense still has to show up to win when it counts, so has a team ever really won a sb with 1 or the other

Sure, especially in the last 10 to 15 years. The Ravens come to mind on defense and the Saints and Rams come to mind on offense. The "Greatest Show on Turf" didn't really have such a great defense. In the 80's, the Bears won a championship largely on the back of a very new defensive scheme with real good defensive players. Their offense was nothing to write home about.

Originally posted by fryet:
The biggest challenge today is the salary cap. I do worry about affording Kaep if he continues to progress and wants 20 million a year. The only way to do that is to take significant money away from other parts of the team.

Good point, but if I know this Niner organization, they'll start working on a contract during next season long before they really have to. And, let's not forget that it was Kaepernick's childhood dream to play QB for the Niners. I'm not saying they'll low-ball him, but I'm pretty sure he's not going to make it needlessly hard on them to make him a long-time Niner. And, this is assuming he continues to progress and becomes the QB many of us think he can.

Originally posted by 49amane:
I dont see our team transformning at all. we have transformed at the qb position, if thats what you mean, but are still near dead last in pass yards. we just get bigger chunks now. and we run the ball. and if if you want an offensive team any more than we already have..shame on you Defense is where its at

total pass yards is probably the most meaningless stat out there. Bad teams pass a lot - good teams tend to run the clock out.

Originally posted by YoungWifey:
Because there are hardly any good defenses around anymore. It's why we're able to shut down guys like Rodgers and Brady. That's why I love having Kaep on this team. I really do think he's capable of getting into a shootout if we need to.

No. Good offensive teams outperform their pythagorean win expectation more often than good defenses (pythagorean win expectation is a function of points scored vs points allowed).

This has been the case for 25 years.

Originally posted by GNielsen:
Sure, especially in the last 10 to 15 years. The Ravens come to mind on defense and the Saints and Rams come to mind on offense. The "Greatest Show on Turf" didn't really have such a great defense. In the 80's, the Bears won a championship largely on the back of a very new defensive scheme with real good defensive players. Their offense was nothing to write home about.

No - an elite QB will deliver you a win even when their net performance throughout the game says otherwise.

The Colts have 3.2 more wins than they should - and that's because of Andrew Luck. Last year, Rodgers did the same.