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Has Our Running Game Been 'Figured Out'?

Originally posted by nickbradley:
the 50 yarder vs. STL? That wasn't a designed run!

Yea it was, it was to the right, and they did that play 2x. He could either keep it or pass it on that side as he has gore and I think miller in front of him.
[ Edited by HOF49er on Dec 11, 2012 at 11:07 AM ]
We played some good run defenses. Tell Frank Gore and his sick runs that has been figured out. I feel that losing Hunter took away a dimension, but James has brought it back. Jacobs was/is like a beer fart. Has a quick hitting effect, no one wants to claim i, and then it hangs around and makes a big stink. Doesn't go away until its flushed.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by hofer36:
through the arizona game niners had a qb who was adept at reading the defense and making the pay calls at the line of scrimmage

uh, dude? we ran poorly in the Arizona game. Alex smith was the quarterback. nice try.

29 rushes for 113 yards (3.9 YPC) isn't that bad. It's not what we're used to, as in 6 yards per attempt, but when you throw, what was it, three of four passes in the whole second half, your running game is going to suffer. The Cardinals knew we were going to run on them with a commanding lead like we had. They still couldn't keep us under three yards per attempt.

And say all you want, Alex calls the plays better at the LOS. He gets us in the best situation to win. Something Kaepernick is still working on.

Another reason we're suffering from the run games the past few weeks is because Roman isn't calling deep shots and Kaepernick isn't taking them. We should be throwing deep at least once per half. When's the last time we opened up a game on our very first play throwing it 30+ yards down the field? This will help keep the safeties back open up lanes for Gore. I expect to see that this Sunday Night. I don't know why we haven't been throwing deep a few times a game, Kaep has shown he can hit his receivers with some nice touch.
Originally posted by sfninerfanMax:
the Niners may not go as far this year because of the QB change. Or they could go farther because of the QB change. It seems to me Harbuagh is thinking the long term future for the Niners more than just this one season.


Originally posted by Axl49:
What im saying. My friends and people are giving me slack because I want Alex to start. But its for reasons you guys mentioned. He knows how to read defenses, Knows the plays. Is smart which is key and doesn't make mistakes. He did beat the saints last year in shootout and did keep up with Manning. I just dont get logic for this year.


I'm a big CK fan and even I don't understand the logic. I've also come to the conclusion that the timing of the QB switch is odd at best. About the only thing that my circle of Niner friends can think is that Harbaugh wanted CK to start the last 1/3 of the season so he doesn't come in cold and inexperienced next year.

One thing is certain, Alex is gone. They'll use his salary to resign other key players like Goldson.
Originally posted by ElDannMann:
29 rushes for 113 yards (3.9 YPC) isn't that bad. It's not what we're used to, as in 6 yards per attempt, but when you throw, what was it, three of four passes in the whole second half, your running game is going to suffer. The Cardinals knew we were going to run on them with a commanding lead like we had. They still couldn't keep us under three yards per attempt.

And say all you want, Alex calls the plays better at the LOS. He gets us in the best situation to win. Something Kaepernick is still working on.

Another reason we're suffering from the run games the past few weeks is because Roman isn't calling deep shots and Kaepernick isn't taking them. We should be throwing deep at least once per half. When's the last time we opened up a game on our very first play throwing it 30+ yards down the field? This will help keep the safeties back open up lanes for Gore. I expect to see that this Sunday Night. I don't know why we haven't been throwing deep a few times a game, Kaep has shown he can hit his receivers with some nice touch.

I don't want to turn this into a QB thread.

with that being said, let me answer your question.

You have no evidence hat Alex Smith is 'better at the line' - you made that up. If you want to look at how well each quarterback has adjusted for the game situation and called the right play, look at win probability added or something like that. If you look there, you'll see that Kaepernick's WPA per play is 2.5x higher than Smith's. You could also look at performance on critical plays, like 3rd and 4th downs. In that category, Kaepernick is 4.3x better on a per play basis looking at expected points added (EPA).

That's a massive gap.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by ElDannMann:
29 rushes for 113 yards (3.9 YPC) isn't that bad. It's not what we're used to, as in 6 yards per attempt, but when you throw, what was it, three of four passes in the whole second half, your running game is going to suffer. The Cardinals knew we were going to run on them with a commanding lead like we had. They still couldn't keep us under three yards per attempt.

And say all you want, Alex calls the plays better at the LOS. He gets us in the best situation to win. Something Kaepernick is still working on.

Another reason we're suffering from the run games the past few weeks is because Roman isn't calling deep shots and Kaepernick isn't taking them. We should be throwing deep at least once per half. When's the last time we opened up a game on our very first play throwing it 30+ yards down the field? This will help keep the safeties back open up lanes for Gore. I expect to see that this Sunday Night. I don't know why we haven't been throwing deep a few times a game, Kaep has shown he can hit his receivers with some nice touch.

I don't want to turn this into a QB thread.

with that being said, let me answer your question.

You have no evidence hat Alex Smith is 'better at the line' - you made that up. If you want to look at how well each quarterback has adjusted for the game situation and called the right play, look at win probability added or something like that. If you look there, you'll see that Kaepernick's WPA per play is 2.5x higher than Smith's. You could also look at performance on critical plays, like 3rd and 4th downs. In that category, Kaepernick is 4.3x better on a per play basis looking at expected points added (EPA).

That's a massive gap.

What are these, and where do these come from?
I'm still trying to figure out if its been figured out
Originally posted by fropwns:


Frank "the Tank" says no.

I fvxking love that guy.
defenses like STL and MIA are just stacking the box to stop our run game.

they need to develop more 3 WR shotgun formations and let kap throw
Defenses don't fear our passing game, so they're stacking the box. Kaep is too limited in the mental aspects of playing QB that they're not concerned about him. All they have to do is cover the deeper routes and leave everything short open and Kaep is completely stupefied as to what to do.
Originally posted by HOF49er:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
the 50 yarder vs. STL? That wasn't a designed run!

Yea it was, it was to the right, and they did that play 2x. He could either keep it or pass it on that side as he has gore and I think miller in front of him.

i think kaerpernick said it wasnt and harbaugh said it was after the game, though i could have that backwards
Originally posted by TinyHandsBigHeart:
Defenses don't fear our passing game, so they're stacking the box. Kaep is too limited in the mental aspects of playing QB that they're not concerned about him. All they have to do is cover the deeper routes and leave everything short open and Kaep is completely stupefied as to what to do.

well that's an unbacked assertion if I've ever seen one.
Originally posted by OKC49erFan:
What are these, and where do these come from?

They're commonly used; here's one source:

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php?pos=QB
Originally posted by nickbradley:
well that's an unbacked assertion if I've ever seen one.

Hardly unbacked, since it is exactly what defenses have been doing. Both the Rams and Dolphins put 8-9 guys in the box and then just worked to force throws to the shorter routes and our offense had no answer for it.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by hofer36:
through the arizona game niners had a qb who was adept at reading the defense and making the pay calls at the line of scrimmage

uh, dude? we ran poorly in the Arizona game. Alex smith was the quarterback. nice try.

"uh dude" ? look at the run game in smith's starts--not just one game dude, niners were on pace to set nfl record of 5.7 avg yards per carry---and i have heard broadcasters a number of times (collinsworth and moose johnston come to mind) observe after big gore runs that smith called the right play at the line (alot of times the wham blocking runs)...i havenet heard one broadcaster say that in any of kaerpnicks starts