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"We're gonna go with the hotter hand"

Anyone else notice Smith was the only one on the sideline not smiling? He knows its starting all over again.
Originally posted by NinerGod:
Anyone else notice Smith was the only one on the sideline not smiling? He knows its starting all over again.

Seen that...here we go again poor AS...this is going to crush his confidence
Originally posted by NinerGod:
Anyone else notice Smith was the only one on the sideline not smiling? He knows its starting all over again.

yeah i did, He was probably thinking, Damn!
Kaepernick to AS: Can't touch this

I'd be willing to bet money that Harbs has already talked to Alex and Colin and straightened it out. All this "hot hand" nonsense is to keep the media guessing. No worries here.
Kap is the more exciting/explosive playmaking type QB, but on the other side of the coin, he's also going to be more mistake prone. That (and experience) still remains Alex' saving grace over Kap. Higher completion rate, less risky throws etc. Don't underestimate the value of the game manager. When comes down to it, it's not flashy, but Alex gets the only results that matter...Ws

After sticking by Smith for so long, and being rewarded for it quite well, will Harbaugh turn his back on Alex? Tough choice. Tradition says you can't lose your job to injury, and Harbaugh strikes me as a traditional type guy (up to a point). I think Alex remains the starter....seniority, experience, maturity, all of these things are what Harbaugh values.
God people this is professional football. Harbaugh isn't 16 years old, he's not going to rush into starting Colin for this one game. These people seriously would rather have Brees over Rodgers. Yes Colin played a lights out game (which everybody has to make their comment on why he didn't get 300 yards, like that's a requirement to win a superbowl), Alex has put together two great seasons, led us to the NFC Championship game, and has been playing good. Kaep needs to develop, he is going to regress if thrown in too soon. He can be great but personally I have seen nothing that shows Alex hasn't performed well enough, and it is already Alex's job to lose.

Not to mention who knows what the score would have been with Alex, no way to know if the 49ers just had the Bear's number and Alex wouldn't have put up similar numbers. I can't make an argument to start Alex in 2013, if Colin wins he wins.
Are this many people still in denial? Ok, let's pretend that it was luck that he was able to pass all night on a really good defense. Either way, he connected on passes in his first game that Alex still hasn't been able to complete 7 years in. Harbaugh's no fool, Kaeps turning into exactly what Jim thought he would. He'll start Kaep next week.
If Alex isn't 100% Kaep will start if Alex is 100% Alex is starting. Btw a nice thing to have, the Bears would love to have this discussion. Kaep's progress just shows you what a good coach will do to you. Kaep comes form a gimmick offence and today he played with a lot of confidence in a complicated timing based Bill Walsh type offence.
[ Edited by JeuSF49 on Nov 20, 2012 at 7:25 AM ]
Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Originally posted by captveg:
Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
I'm surprised he said that. I'm equally surprised how far along Kaep is from last year. Last season he looked totally lost to me in preseason when we did see him. This year I did notice there was a progressin with Kaep from first preseason game to the last. Better every game out of the 4 of them. He seemd to be getting it. Then we used him a lot in "Wild - Kaep." He looked pretty good at that but it was tough to see his overall QB development. Until he got a full game. He's night and day from last year. Just a much more capable and confident QB.

Alex has actually played really well. Better in some ways than 2011. And 2011 up to that time was his best ever. I think we have 2 QB's playing at a high level which is a good problem to have.

There is no denying Kaep has the highest upside of anybody on the team. It does need to be said Alex hasn't really done anything wrong. He got better and better (Alex) in 2011 and continued in 2012. Low turnovers, wins, playoffs, best QB ratings of his career, high completion percentage. Kaep can just push the ball down the field better. But Kaep will make some young QB mistakes because defenses will start to catch up to him when they get a book on him. It's a tough decision. Harbaugh knows QB's better than any of us. So if he feels Kaep is ready then he knows. If he feels it's still Alex for 2012 then I trust him.

Great post


I think that is pretty much where it's at all totalled.


Summed it up clearly San Diego...This is a balancing act for Harbaugh. There's so many variables to consider. From the way they put Kaep in early in the season, it was easy to postulate he was being groomed for the future. Now it becomes more and more clear he probably is the future. But who gives us the best chance of winning the Lombardi this year. Long term my guess is that Harbalke are betting on Kaep especially after second half last week and last night. Another variable is the players. ESPN quoted Crabs and Vernon.
"It's no secret, bro--that dude can play ball, Michael Crabtree said. "It was too much for them. Colin's a baller.
Tight End Vernon Davis said, "I was like, "Hey, we got Colin Kaepernick. "He went to work". During a post game interview he also commented on how Colin threw a perfect ball into a tight window which hasn't happened when coverage is that tight.
Point is...a lot of what has been holding the passing offense back has been the confidence level between receivers and QB. I think it may be emerging that the receivers are more excited about working with Kaep. Clearly Kaep isn't afraid to throw the ball downfield and into extremely tight windows. I watched him throw one late in the game threading the ball between three converging defenders while someone was right in his face. So, synergy between QB and receivers has a lot to do with confidence and taking the right chances. My guess is that Kaep may already be on top on this one, even after 1 1/2 games. As San Diego said...there will be down games, growing pains. Will other teams spot weaknesses in his game yet apparant(don't see any right now though)? It's gonna be fun to watch Harbalke navigate this one. Bottomline..What a great situation to have.
Originally posted by tony2cool4u2k1:
Straight from the horse's mouth. Interprete this statement however u want. There is a QB controversy brewing, montana vs young part deux

He said I usually go with the hotter hand...
Originally posted by tony2cool4u2k1:
Riddle me this: How many sacks AS would've taken that CK7 didn't in this game? I counted at least 3. Alex gets flustered way too easily and he often break off a play once his primary read is cover. The Giants game is a perfect example and we KNOW we'll see that kind of defense againt in the playoffs. If AS is starting, at least let KAP play in 40% of the package to keep them honest. It's only going to benefit us.

You can't prove a negative. Dear lord, just be happy.
Originally posted by Niners99:
Originally posted by tony2cool4u2k1:
Straight from the horse's mouth. Interprete this statement however u want. There is a QB controversy brewing, montana vs young part deux

lol I hope youre being sarcastic...

Kaepernick will continue to play until Smith is 100% ready to return. When Smith does return, its going to take another injury, or very poor play for him to lose his job. Smith has earned the right to keep his job until he proves he doesnt deserve it. He isnt going to get replaced because Kaep made his first career start and did well.

All this really means is Kaepernick might be alot farther along (and alot better) than most of us anticipated. He certainly backed up his potential with some results tonight.

Super Bowl contending teams dont make QB switches deep into a season just because one guy had a great game. If Smith is healthy, hes the QB, period.

Harbaugh spouts alot of crap at the media, and him leaving the door open to a "QB controversy" is just talk. If this team is ready to just dump their offensive leader for a hot young kid who had a great game, then they arent the kind of team thats ready to win a SB. Alex Smith has been there before, and proved last year against the Saints in the playoffs why he should be the QB of this team.

This was a momentary flash of brilliance by a young QB that has a bright future.


How can we be sure it is momentary. Certainly there would be ups and downs if he started and lot's of other issues regarding Alex's confidence and committment, but to say he couldn't pick it up and outplay Smith...who knows. Also, I am almost certain the the only thing that Harbalke care about is who gives us the best chance to win this year. This alone will be their determining criteria.
Originally posted by kray28:
Kap is the more exciting/explosive playmaking type QB, but on the other side of the coin, he's also going to be more mistake prone. That (and experience) still remains Alex' saving grace over Kap. Higher completion rate, less risky throws etc. Don't underestimate the value of the game manager. When comes down to it, it's not flashy, but Alex gets the only results that matter...Ws

After sticking by Smith for so long, and being rewarded for it quite well, will Harbaugh turn his back on Alex? Tough choice. Tradition says you can't lose your job to injury, and Harbaugh strikes me as a traditional type guy (up to a point). I think Alex remains the starter....seniority, experience, maturity, all of these things are what Harbaugh values.

Good point. There were a few throws Colin made where he really threaded the needle. One that comes to mind is he threw off his back foot and hit VD in the middle of three defenders. That one could've easily gone wrong. So while it was a great throw, it's definitely more risky than something Alex Smith would do. There are positives and negatives to both QBs and to this point Alex Smith has done for more for a longer period of time to earn and keep his starting spot.
Originally posted by ninermedic:
Originally posted by BrianGO:
Originally posted by ninermedic:
Wanting to see consistency is a reasonable thing though, one game is great and I loved it but knowing that he can do it week in and week out is something else. That's why I think there is a case to be made to let Alex have more time and give Kaep the start.

I do understand the desire to have him be the backup...IF he has been cleared. He looked dazed on the sideline though, even before there were any scores on either side. Dude just didn't look right and I think this is a point where you can afford to let him take his time getting back and give Kaep a chance to show us everything he's capable of.


But it's a catch 22. He has to play to demonstrate consistency. You say to let him play for a "few games", but how would he have to play to make a decision to put Smith back in? If we win, but he has a low QB rating, do we put Smith back in? If we lose, but he has a high QB rating, do we put Smith back in? It's too murky to decide over the course of a few games.
Kaep would have to be downright awful for him to be replaced after the game he just had against the Bears top rated defense. All Kaep has to do is play "par" and he will keep the job.

I would suggest start him for one more game, see what he's capable of, and if Alex is fully healthy and capable after that, put Alex back in. I am assuming that this changes the expected dynamic for the offseason in which we see a straight up QB battle between the two; that before that we will know who the starter is and the other will be out. Giving Kaep another game on film (and assuming he does well, which I expect him to) would increase his trade value. His trade value has to be way higher than Alex's; if you have two QBs that are both capable, why not get something in return for one of them if you're going to lose one anyway?

If Kaep does simply stay the starter, and we continue to win, there isn't really a controversy. One thing I would like to avoid is a QB carousel bouncing from one guy to another Singletary-style...which is probably why Smith will be back at #1 on the depth chart sooner rather than later.


Giving Alex more time to recover might be the best of all possible worlds for the team, although Alex would sniff it out in a second and what would that do to his confidence and commitment. I sense his ego is still somewhat fragile and it could cause his play to nosedive.