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49ers offense would benefit from mathematics

Here's more fuel for the crazy fire...
Lol, we play safe in our offense but the question is to go for it on 4th down lol
Originally posted by 2w2k:
Most of you are missing the points of the Livingston story. It is not an absolute decision to go for 4th down, etc. It is a calculated decision.
The calculation depends on the team records, team personnel, how the players perform on that day, etc.. Such decision can be differenet from game to game.

The coach will run the calculations before the game, then make such calls as the game goes on. You still need an intelligent coach to make such decisions. It is not just run by a computer and just go 4th down every time.

I recall John Gruden did similar things in Oakland and Tampa. In the end, you still need good players to execute your calculated decisions. When you don't have them, you lose games no matter .
Originally posted by Marsh:
Originally posted by GolittaCamper:
Here's more fuel for the crazy fire...

no more fuel!
If it mathematically makes more sense, why is it crazy?
  • Veteran
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Originally posted by Afrikan:
because Head Coaches don't treat these games as if its Madden online.

This seems to be macho versus the odds. Guys like Singletary would do this as would NYJ Ryan, but a coach who understands that three points still count will usually take the points. With the 9ers defense it would even be more silly to forgo the FG.

What I do not want to see are the runs on every first down inside the Red Zone! Then runs on second...then pass on third and long! Give Smith and the receivers three shots at the endzone when they are inside the ten and I would bet on at least 33% success...which would be a TD almost ever time.
All comes down to many variables of the game.

- down and distance.
- what's the score?
- how much time left in the game?
- been running the ball well to that point?
- playing at home or away?
- how many stops has the D been generating?
- how often has the O been driving down the field?
- how clutch is the FG kicker?
- got a punter that nails his punts inside the 10 often?

Probably many more I'm not even working my brain to think of.. I agree with prior poster that going for it and not getting it can be extremely deflating to a team while giving extreme infusion of energy to the opponent.

Me? I am more inclined to go for a 4th and 1 or 2, if a team is between the 40-35 yd line. But.. if you have a kick-a$$ punter that often nails those punts inside the 10? That can change the outlook. If you have a kick-a$$ defense that can f**k opponents up when they are pinned down inside the 10? Also changes the outlook. If you have extra timeouts to burn? Hey, try to draw them offsides and if that fails, call a TO with a plan in mind all along.
Originally posted by Marsh:
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by Marsh:
Originally posted by GolittaCamper:
Here's more fuel for the crazy fire...

no more fuel!
If it mathematically makes more sense, why is it crazy?

i failed maths

I know right? I heard an interview with this guy, and having been an offensive CO for youth football, I know in my gut that he is right, with out having to see the numbers. When 3rd down is all or nothing it shrinks your playbook, and puts a ton of pressure on the call, and the execution of the play. If I had 3rd and 8 and knew I was going for it (not a lot of good FG kickers in youth ball) I could call call anything in the playbook! If I was angling for a FG or a punt, passing or outside runs are off the table, and the DC on the other side knows it. Never happen in the pros, I'm get the feeling the numbers don't support it. Cool stuff though.
It was grueling reading that article because it's such a stupid premise. Those against the grain-- 4th &short, on-side kick and what not-- calls, only work in situation that the other team don't expect it. Just like every thing, if you do it enough times, the other team will expect and prepared, and stop it. Yahoo writer just went full retard.
did + not = read
Originally posted by WINiner:
If it's a seldom attempted play which is only used in desperation I agree. But if you lose a 4th and 1 on your own 40 up 17-3 and they haven't been able to move the ball on you all day who cares?

Also if your team understands this is a general philosophy going forward and to expect more of those kinds of calls it gives opportunity for redemption. Not to mention if you are calling for 4th down conversions in situations where it is not critical to convert then your team is that much more prepared when that critical moment does arise.

Originally posted by modninerfan:
Originally posted by jdt84_2:
I agree withthe above. Stupid.

Now if you have a kicker you do not trust with 50+yd FGs, that is where you go for it. Between the 45 and the 35.

that and the 2 yard line... If you are within 3 yards of the goal line f**kin go for it. If you dont get it the other team is screwed and you could possibly get 2 points plus the ball back.

This. Even if you don't get the TD and/or safety, if your defense can cause a quick 3-and-out, the opponent is punting deep in their own endzone. Even with no return, you most likely are starting at midfield already.
Remember the Falcons last year going for it on 4th & inches on their 30 because they didn't think the defense can stop Brees and the Saints.... yeah how did that worked out. Mathematics don't get you 4th and inches over 300 pounders x4, plus 255 LBs x3. That's more than 1000pds of humanity mathematics has to account for.

How does math account for the one ref guessing on the spot of the ball and give you a short spot when replay don't show crap.
Depends on the score and how much time is on the clock.

If it's close - take the FG.
This was written by the Madden 2013 team.

But as to the point, HaRoman are very conservative esp. in the RZ. There are times to go for it esp. when you have a defense/running game like ours and your OL has momentum and has been dominating a DL the whole drive. Kicking a FG is a win for the defense. Period. That said, we still suck ass in short yardage situations so...
[ Edited by NCommand on Nov 8, 2012 at 9:21 AM ]
I don't think anyone is a proponent of going for it on 4th down EVERY time, regardless of the situation. A little bit of an overreaction, guys. But I'm not surprised, this is the WZ.

The point is that statistically, it more often than not makes sense to go for it on 4th and short. That doesn't mean go for it on 4th and 10 at your own 2 yard line. It also doesn't mean go for it on 4th down at the opponent's 2 yard line with 2 seconds left and you're down by 1. DUH. It is a simple illustration that coaching from the conventional, ultra-conservative perspective costs teams victories.

We have a solid running game, and a smart QB who doesn't turn the ball over. I would venture to guess that if we make 10 trips into the Red Zone, and all 10 end up in a 4th down situation, that we'd score more points if we went for it every time. Let's say Akers makes all 10 field goals, that's 30 points. If we convert only 50%, and end up scoring a touchdown, we'd end up with 35 points. The last two years, we are 11/18 on 4th down conversions (61%), and that's not taking into account the distance. The article is talking about 4th and 2 yards or less. The conversion percentage is very high.