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49ers offense would benefit from mathematics

Came across this article in Yahoo, and it touches on something that I've always felt teams should do more of. Go for it on 4th and short. Particularly when you're in the red zone where touchdowns are so critical. Any chance someone can get this to Harbaugh?

http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/men-action/201211/how-oregon-coach-chip-kelly-can-spark-moneyball-revolution-nfl
They need to attempt that fake FG again with Akers to Crabs
stupid
I agree withthe above. Stupid.

Now if you have a kicker you do not trust with 50+yd FGs, that is where you go for it. Between the 45 and the 35.
Originally posted by jdt84_2:
I agree withthe above. Stupid.

Now if you have a kicker you do not trust with 50+yd FGs, that is where you go for it. Between the 45 and the 35.

that and the 2 yard line... If you are within 3 yards of the goal line f**kin go for it. If you dont get it the other team is screwed and you could possibly get 2 points plus the ball back.
I have always wondered why there weren't more attempts at 4th and short conversions in the NFL.

If it is clear that either A: your offense is superior to your opponents defense, or B: your defense is superior to your opponents offense, then why not?

Imagine the confidence that would put into a team. Going for it on 4th often and converting at a high rate. That would certainly build the bully Harbaugh wants.

It would have to be a bit situational, but I can see that strategy doing well in the NFL.
[ Edited by WINiner on Nov 7, 2012 at 7:44 PM ]
Originally posted by WINiner:
I have always wondered why there weren't more attempts at 4th and short conversions in the NFL.

If it is clear that either A: your offense is superior to your opponents defense, or B: your defense is superior to your opponents offense, then why not?

Imagine the confidence that would put into a team. Going for it on 4th often and converting at a high rate. That would certainly build the bully Harbaugh wants.

It would have to be a bit situational, but I can see that strategy doing well in the NFL.

However missing a 4th down conversion is just as deflating. It completely swings the momentum around.
because Head Coaches don't treat these games as if its Madden online.
Originally posted by 9erfanAUS:
Originally posted by WINiner:
I have always wondered why there weren't more attempts at 4th and short conversions in the NFL.

If it is clear that either A: your offense is superior to your opponents defense, or B: your defense is superior to your opponents offense, then why not?

Imagine the confidence that would put into a team. Going for it on 4th often and converting at a high rate. That would certainly build the bully Harbaugh wants.

It would have to be a bit situational, but I can see that strategy doing well in the NFL.

However missing a 4th down conversion is just as deflating. It completely swings the momentum around.
If it's a seldom attempted play which is only used in desperation I agree. But if you lose a 4th and 1 on your own 40 up 17-3 and they haven't been able to move the ball on you all day who cares?

Also if your team understands this is a general philosophy going forward and to expect more of those kinds of calls it gives opportunity for redemption. Not to mention if you are calling for 4th down conversions in situations where it is not critical to convert then your team is that much more prepared when that critical moment does arise.
[ Edited by WINiner on Nov 7, 2012 at 8:00 PM ]
Originally posted by WINiner:
Originally posted by 9erfanAUS:
Originally posted by WINiner:
I have always wondered why there weren't more attempts at 4th and short conversions in the NFL.

If it is clear that either A: your offense is superior to your opponents defense, or B: your defense is superior to your opponents offense, then why not?

Imagine the confidence that would put into a team. Going for it on 4th often and converting at a high rate. That would certainly build the bully Harbaugh wants.

It would have to be a bit situational, but I can see that strategy doing well in the NFL.

However missing a 4th down conversion is just as deflating. It completely swings the momentum around.
If it's a seldom attempted play which is only used in desperation I agree. But if you lose a 4th and 1 on your own 40 up 17-3 and they haven't been able to move the ball on you all day who cares?

Also if your team understands this is a general philosophy going forward and to expect more of those kinds of calls it gives opportunity for redemption. Not to mention if you are calling for 4th down conversions in situations where it is not critical to convert then your team is that much more prepared when that critical moment does arise.

In your example, failing the 4th down conversion puts the ball at the edge of field goal range.

You make a good point in your second paragraph. However, it's a lot easier to call a 4th down play when you're up a few possessions than when the game is tied and you're on your side of the field.
I think the strategy works very well in college because rarely are you playing against a team of equal caliber. You try that in the NFL and you're just begging to cost your team a game. In the NFL the math tells you to play it safe. Games are typically decided within 7 points and turnovers are a deciding factor.

I'm going to use a college game but look at Bama v LSU. LSU was as aggressive as could be, went 0-6 on those calls, and really lost a game they should have won.
  • 2w2k
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Most of you are missing the points of the Livingston story. It is not an absolute decision to go for 4th down, etc. It is a calculated decision.
The calculation depends on the team records, team personnel, how the players perform on that day, etc.. Such decision can be differenet from game to game.

The coach will run the calculations before the game, then make such calls as the game goes on. You still need an intelligent coach to make such decisions. It is not just run by a computer and just go 4th down every time.

I recall John Gruden did similar things in Oakland and Tampa. In the end, you still need good players to execute your calculated decisions. When you don't have them, you lose games no matter what.
Originally posted by Afrikan:
because Head Coaches don't treat these games as if its Madden online.

yeah this isn't madden, coaches actually get fired for doing stupid s**t like that
Originally posted by Afrikan:
because Head Coaches don't treat these games as if its Madden online.

Lol this.
After watching the many, many gifts of Frank Gore very closely over his entire career, short yardage is definitely not one of them. I would go as far to say that he is the worst short yardage back of any of the elite ones during his stretch.

We don't play BJ, Dixon dances too much, and Hunter isn't proven. Unless we QB sneak or give it to Miller, Harbaugh doesn't really have any options.