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Who is More Consistent: Frank Gore or Kendall Hunter?

Who is More Consistent: Frank Gore or Kendall Hunter?

Based on popular perceptions, more observers would say that Frank Gore is a more 'consistent' running back. 'Consistent' here is defined as more runs clustered near their average. In other words, a running back with two rushes for six yards each is more consistent than a running back with two carries - one for zero yards and one for 12 yards.

But upon closer inspection, Kendall Hunter is the more consistent running back -- Frank Gore is the home-run threat! Let's look at just running plays first.

Frank Gore has 80 carries for 432 yards. Kendall Hunter - 37 carries for 201 yards. On pure average, Gore gets 5.4 yards per attempt, with hunter getting 5.43. Basically Identical.

But what are the distribution of those carries? For Gore, his standard deviation is 6.012. Hunter - 5.475. Their coefficients of variation (CV), therefore, are 1.13 for Gore and 1.008 for Hunter. This measures dispersion, 0 would mean all observances are the same value.

So in the running game, Kendall Hunter is, statistically-speaking, 10.5% more consistent than Frank Gore.

What if we include passing targets? Gore has 89 combined carries and targets, 5.29 per attempt. Hunter has 41 combined carries and targets, 5.46 per attempt. Looking at the distribution, Gore has an SD of 5.93 - Hunter has an SD of 5.42. Looking at the CVs, Gore's is 1.12, while Hunter is 0.99. So in the total game, Kendall Hunter is, statistically-speaking, 12.8% more consistent than Frank Gore.

Combined with a higher per-attempt average (3.25% to be exact), ** the case to increase Hunter's snaps is even stronger...statistically-speaking of course.

You could make the case that the defense keys on the run when Gore is in the play, sure. But in a pure, apples-to-apples statistical analysis, Gore is no better than Hunter, period...even a little less effective because Hunter is (1) more consistent in the running and passing game and (2) more productive in the passing game.

So you can see the data yourself, check out the spreadsheet:


https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B2Eu1DDN514kUUQwa2FHdkxTaWc
[ Edited by nickbradley on Oct 8, 2012 at 12:48 PM ]
Hunter doesn't get used in the jumbo package......put him in for that and the numbers will flatten out
All time leading rusher for the franchise vs a career 325 yard rusher?


Hmmm? Gonna have to get back to you on that one.


PS- KH IS bad-a$$, btw, IMHO, tbph, fwiw
Kendal Hunter... that dude got lost in all the big bodies yesterday. There were several times where I thought he got 3-4 yards but somehow found his way, weave through the defenders for 4-5 more I need to see more. The Bills may just be that bad.
I'll be happy to play as soon as you tell me which one of your kids you love more...
Anthony Dixon
I'm just glad we have Hunter backing up Gore. dude can get it done.
Both are good dudes I'm gonna pm them.
kendall hunter ALWAYS picks up an extra yard or two before going to the ground..... but so does frank gore haha
Hunter is more consistent, but that isn't saying anything bad about Gore. He does a lot of the dirty work and really wears down the defense. Really glad to have them both, since they really drive each other. That "iron sharpens iron" quote is really demonstrated in the running backs.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/career-rushing.htm
Originally posted by qnnhan7:
Kendal Hunter... that dude got lost in all the big bodies yesterday. There were several times where I thought he got 3-4 yards but somehow found his way, weave through the defenders for 4-5 more I need to see more. The Bills may just be that bad.

What? Yesterday Gore had 6 rushes that went for 3 yards or less, Hunter only had one!
Gore softens 'em up. And Hunter gashes 'em when they're tired. It's a two back system.

Just wait till we incorporate Jacobs. Dixon looked good too. Not to mention our 2nd round pick James.

We are the #1 running team in the league without Jacobs or James touching the ball yet.

Depth. Check!
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by qnnhan7:
Kendal Hunter... that dude got lost in all the big bodies yesterday. There were several times where I thought he got 3-4 yards but somehow found his way, weave through the defenders for 4-5 more I need to see more. The Bills may just be that bad.

What? Yesterday Gore had 6 rushes that went for 3 yards or less, Hunter only had one!


jumbo package
Also, more interesting data - rushing yards only.

25.7% of Gore's yards come on runs that are two standard deviations away from the mean. Hunter? 12.9%.

That means that a ton of Gore's yards are on 'home-run plays: 25.7% of his yardage comes on runs of 17 yards or more.
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