Originally posted by Blake_Fever:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
If you're going to base your predictions on math and statistics, how about "regression to the mean"? The Niners defense waaaaaaaaaaaaay over performed last year (in terms of takeaways) which let to 13 wins. The turnover differential is bound to come down, as will wins. The offense is the wild card. With the new additions and year 2 in the system, it SHOULD get better, but who knows. Probably not enough to offset the slight step back the defense will take.
Eh. Are you familiar with "expected wins" in sports? They call in Pythagorean wins. And its a function of pts scored and pts allowed. On that metric, the 49ers were #1 last year. The packers overperformed more than anyone else. Since 1983, overperformers become undeeperformets the next year, and vice versa.
So if green bay plays like they did last year and play like a 12 win team, the packers are more likely to go 9-7 than 15-1.
Now SF will probably be an overall better team, but with a tougher schedule, 10 or 11 wins is completely logical and realistic.
I agree with 10 or 11 wins, but I don't understand where the "harder schedule" thing comes from. Someone on TV says it, and now everybody says it because everybody says it.
Our hardest games are harder than last year, but every other game is easier. We are @GB, @NE, @NO. Those three games are arguably harder than any game we had last year, BUT, every other game is EASIER compared to last year. Those three super tough games make pundits say stuff like, "Just look at the 49ers schedule this year. They have Green Bay, New England, and New Orleans on the road. Obviously, they have a tougher schedule this year".
But its an absurd logic, because every OTHER game is looking very winnable.
10 or 11 wins? Yes. Tougher schedule? No.
[ Edited by BrianGO on Sep 3, 2012 at 4:23 PM ]