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League-Wide Game-by-Game Predictions; I have the 49ers Going 12-4, ending with...

While I appreciate the effort, too much homerism here--overvaluing the Niners while undervaluing other teams.

Patriots and Packers will be better than 12-4.

Cardinals will certainly be better than 3-13. Remember, they have a solid defense and went 6-2 with Skelton in the 2nd half of the season.

Niners probably finish 10-6, maybe 11-5, but still good enough to win the West. Sorry, but they're going to lose at GB, NO, and NE; going to Seattle is tough and they lost at AZ last year. Plus a few tough home games.

As much as Id love to see them in the Super Bowl, without at least a #2 seed (meaning a home game in the divisional round), they're not going. Probably not winning at NO or GB.

On the plus side, I do agree with all your division winners and would love to see Houston in the dance!
Originally posted by Blake_Fever:
While I appreciate the effort, too much homerism here--overvaluing the Niners while undervaluing other teams.

Patriots and Packers will be better than 12-4.

Cardinals will certainly be better than 3-13. Remember, they have a solid defense and went 6-2 with Skelton in the 2nd half of the season.

Niners probably finish 10-6, maybe 11-5, but still good enough to win the West. Sorry, but they're going to lose at GB, NO, and NE; going to Seattle is tough and they lost at AZ last year. Plus a few tough home games.

As much as Id love to see them in the Super Bowl, without at least a #2 seed (meaning a home game in the divisional round), they're not going. Probably not winning at NO or GB.


On the plus side, I do agree with all your division winners and would love to see Houston in the dance!


Eh. Are you familiar with "expected wins" in sports? They call in Pythagorean wins. And its a function of pts scored and pts allowed. On that metric, the 49ers were #1 last year. The packers overperformed more than anyone else. Since 1983, overperformers become undeeperformets the next year, and vice versa.

So if green bay plays like they did last year and play like a 12 win team, the packers are more likely to go 9-7 than 15-1.
Fnck the talk of the niners! loosing to NO, NE & GB.
Originally posted by niners4lyfe:
i think it's going to be sf and phili in the nfc championship-that's if we're the second seed and phili gets home field.

I concur I believe it comes down to the Eagles and Niners in the NFC Championship game with Philly team members bragging about how they want to face the Niners and they get walloped. Niners to the Superbowl and winning it.
Originally posted by kelpie70:
I concur I believe it comes down to the Eagles and Niners in the NFC Championship game with Philly team members bragging about how they want to face the Niners and they get walloped. Niners to the Superbowl and winning it.

I have concerns about the eagles D and offensive line, for good reason.

Chicago is the most underrated team in the NFL.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Eh. Are you familiar with "expected wins" in sports? They call in Pythagorean wins. And its a function of pts scored and pts allowed. On that metric, the 49ers were #1 last year. The packers overperformed more than anyone else. Since 1983, overperformers become undeeperformets the next year, and vice versa.

So if green bay plays like they did last year and play like a 12 win team, the packers are more likely to go 9-7 than 15-1.
If you're going to base your predictions on math and statistics, how about "regression to the mean"? The Niners defense waaaaaaaaaaaaay over performed last year (in terms of takeaways) which let to 13 wins. The turnover differential is bound to come down, as will wins. The offense is the wild card. With the new additions and year 2 in the system, it SHOULD get better, but who knows. Probably not enough to offset the slight step back the defense will take.

Now SF will probably be an overall better team, but with a tougher schedule, 10 or 11 wins is completely logical and realistic.
You have us going undefeated at home which is not likely-at least one loss and maybe two, I think we go 10-6 or 11-5 despite having a better team this season. This will show in the playoffs. Green bay is still the best team in the NFC though. The saints will unravel at some point too.
why doesnt anybody believe the 49ers can beat a top tier team!!! Every prediction i've seen has us losing to NE, GB, & NO why is that?
Originally posted by Blake_Fever:
If you're going to base your predictions on math and statistics, how about "regression to the mean"? The Niners defense waaaaaaaaaaaaay over performed last year (in terms of takeaways) which let to 13 wins. The turnover differential is bound to come down, as will wins. The offense is the wild card. With the new additions and year 2 in the system, it SHOULD get better, but who knows. Probably not enough to offset the slight step back the defense will take.

Now SF will probably be an overall better team, but with a tougher schedule, 10 or 11 wins is completely logical and realistic.

Only fumble recoveries are random bro.

Our defense performed as expected.

Our red zone offense was abysmal. It will be a lot Better this year
Originally posted by Blake_Fever:
While I appreciate the effort, too much homerism here--overvaluing the Niners while undervaluing other teams.

Patriots and Packers will be better than 12-4.

Cardinals will certainly be better than 3-13. Remember, they have a solid defense and went 6-2 with Skelton in the 2nd half of the season.

Niners probably finish 10-6, maybe 11-5, but still good enough to win the West. Sorry, but they're going to lose at GB, NO, and NE; going to Seattle is tough and they lost at AZ last year. Plus a few tough home games.

As much as Id love to see them in the Super Bowl, without at least a #2 seed (meaning a home game in the divisional round), they're not going. Probably not winning at NO or GB.

On the plus side, I do agree with all your division winners and would love to see Houston in the dance!

Wow Nostradamus I like how you state all of your opinions like they are facts. Very good job I think you might actually have convinced yourself you are right.

What are tomorrows lottery numbers?
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Only fumble recoveries are random bro.

Our defense performed as expected.

Our red zone offense was abysmal. It will be a lot Better this year

1) Really? Tipped passes that turn into INTs aren't random?

2) This is actually more absurd than the first. Who EXPECTED the defense would cause 38 turnovers? Who EXPECTED Aldon Smith to have 14 sacks? Who EXPECTED Vic Fangio (who has an average to below average track record as a defensive coordinator--you're into stats, look 'em up) would turn this into a top 5 defense?

3) I agree with your first sentence. Obviously. But it will be a lot better this year? Not sure about that. I appreciate Alex being an efficient caretaker of the offense, but when you get inside the 20, and the windows for completing passes are a lot smaller, he needs to grow a set and take some chances. David Akers might not be enough this year.
Originally posted by Blake_Fever:
1) Really? Tipped passes that turn into INTs aren't random?

2) This is actually more absurd than the first. Who EXPECTED the defense would cause 38 turnovers? Who EXPECTED Aldon Smith to have 14 sacks? Who EXPECTED Vic Fangio (who has an average to below average track record as a defensive coordinator--you're into stats, look 'em up) would turn this into a top 5 defense?

3) I agree with your first sentence. Obviously. But it will be a lot better this year? Not sure about that. I appreciate Alex being an efficient caretaker of the offense, but when you get inside the 20, and the windows for completing passes are a lot smaller, he needs to grow a set and take some chances. David Akers might not be enough this year.

It was a known deficiency. If you know anything about Harbaugh he focuses on improving weaknesses like no other while strengthening his strengths. How could you not expect their redzone efficiency to improve with a full offseason of work and it being a known problem that needs improving?
Originally posted by DKPthe49erfan:
why doesnt anybody believe the 49ers can beat a top tier team!!! Every prediction i've seen has us losing to NE, GB, & NO why is that?

Because media members who make predictions generally arent fans and, in this case, aren't viewing the team through crimson and gold-colored glasses.

Sometimes (not always), but sometimes the 30,000 foot view is the right one.
Originally posted by Blake_Fever:
Because media members who make predictions generally arent fans and, in this case, aren't viewing the team through crimson and gold-colored glasses.

Sometimes (not always), but sometimes the 30,000 foot view is the right one.

I understand that but why not have us winning at one of those games. I mean EVERY prediction had us guaranteed to lose those three games like we don't have a top tier defense
Originally posted by Blake_Fever:
1) Really? Tipped passes that turn into INTs aren't random?

2) This is actually more absurd than the first. Who EXPECTED the defense would cause 38 turnovers? Who EXPECTED Aldon Smith to have 14 sacks? Who EXPECTED Vic Fangio (who has an average to below average track record as a defensive coordinator--you're into stats, look 'em up) would turn this into a top 5 defense?

3) I agree with your first sentence. Obviously. But it will be a lot better this year? Not sure about that. I appreciate Alex being an efficient caretaker of the offense, but when you get inside the 20, and the windows for completing passes are a lot smaller, he needs to grow a set and take some chances. David Akers might not be enough this year.

No. It's positioning and skill. Getting your hands up. Ever heard of a tip drill?

Our defense DID perform as expected. Our defense always went on the field with amazing field position. In 2011 that was a function of fewer turnovers of offense!