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Really? 7.2 Wins?

  • Chico
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,152
Winning all the close games to me showed that we have matured as a relatively young team. We used to lose those games under No-Win & Dingleberry and now we're winning them. Our team is growing smarter, wiser and most of all more patient and holding our composure. They don't get frustrated when their backs are against the wall (Eagles). We fight to the end.

i feel our team might hit some road bumps with the tougher schedule but win the division at 10-11 games this year. But once we make the playoffs, we're a forced to be reckoned with!
Originally posted by JiksJuicy:
This. And the team didn't even have an off-season. They added major pieces and stayed completely intact on the defensive side of the ball. They will improve in a lot of aspects in which they never got the chance to work on during the lock-out. 7 wins? WIth this defense, and a decent offense? I just don't see it. Joe Montana recently came out and talked about the 9ers being a legit contender.

I understand there is reason to be skeptical, but there is also a whole lot to look forward too. I personally think we win 10-12 games, win the division, and have a legit shot making a run.

While we had more of an uphill battle because of an almost completely new staff, all teams had no off season, for some it hurt them as people got injuried with no off season to get into condition.. So this argument can be a two edged sword.
Originally posted by cciowa:
Originally posted by danimal:
good teams blow out their opponents typically. That is how you get out of "one hit wonder" "fluke" status. Statistical analysis shows that teams generally don't have winning records, 2 seasons in a row....when asked to play in close contests at a higher than average rate

Anybody who thinks this season hinges on the Defense is off their rocker....you better look at the Offense for once and ask....where is our 21-0 jump starts??
tell that to the 90 niners team that won most of thier games by a small margin and then went onto the nfc title game vs the giants where they lost on a fumble. good teams win, they win, they win by one, they win by 30, they win. i am unsure why so many quibble with how much we win by or how many yards alex will throw for. You win, you win anyway shape or form you can. I also disagree with a statement you made in a earlier post about"our defense has to come down to earth". why? the ravens have been a great defensive team for ten years, who is to say we can not or are becoming that type of a team with that type of a defense? why must our defense "come down". they have speed, they are the best tackling team in the nfl, they do the fundamentals very well. they do a great job controlling what they can control. barring massive injuries why do you not think our defense can continue to be top three in the nfl. its been done before. you can set around and wait for those 21-0 jump starts, i will just appreciate wins any way i can get them. please do not let your blind loyality to your hate of alex make you sound illogical


ha ha, are you even reading what I am talking about. Nobody is saying you can't have a single season with lots of close wins, the argument is it is really difficult to have 2 seasons in a row like that.

It is pointless to point out a team with one season. Please share with the group which team you know of that had 2 seasons like that in a row.

And the 1990 49ers were the 1990 49ers, in case you missed it they were the team of the decade so everything about them was exceptional.

If the 2013 49ers were coming off of 4 SB wins in the last 8 seasons, we would not even be having this talk and Football outsiders would have so much positive data that they would be predicting 12-4 at least.

That was a terrible analogy my friend
Originally posted by WildBill:
Originally posted by SofaKing:
We ranked 4th in margin of victory average. Only the Saints, Packers, and Patriots won games by a greater margin than we did. Most games come down to the wire. The good teams blow lesser teams out on occasion, but for the most part the final 4:00 minutes of games determines your success through the year.

Okay-but they are the ones that have at least proven themselves as they repeated as playoff contenders. They also have trmendous offenses. Which, other than the saints, they both worked in the ofseason to revamp their def.

Point is expect to lose some (not all) of those close games, like 7-2 in close games with a bad break like the NFC Ch and you can be 5-4 in close games.

I see what you are saying. Their offenses and history of success make them less vulnerable than us. I just don't see how anyone could predict us to go 7-9. The defense might regress from last year, but not by much, not with all 11 starters coming back. The offense should be greatly improved. 10 to 12 wins would not be a sign of regression in my eyes. It's hard to repeat 13 wins. I get that. But 7 wins? No freakin' way.
What the stats don't show is the loss of personell from one season to the next. SF has not lost a single key player. Only dead weight was lost. I still don't see why our defense can't sustain being great. They've been better then good for a long time and have finally been put together properly and didn't lose anyone. Baltimore and Pittsburgh have had dominant defenses for years now. Why can't SF be one that sustains a great defense?
Originally posted by cciowa:
tell that to the 90 niners team that won most of thier games by a small margin and then went onto the nfc title game vs the giants where they lost on a fumble. good teams win, they win, they win by one, they win by 30, they win. i am unsure why so many quibble with how much we win by or how many yards alex will throw for. You win, you win anyway shape or form you can. I also disagree with a statement you made in a earlier post about"our defense has to come down to earth". why? the ravens have been a great defensive team for ten years, who is to say we can not or are becoming that type of a team with that type of a defense? why must our defense "come down". they have speed, they are the best tackling team in the nfl, they do the fundamentals very well. they do a great job controlling what they can control. barring massive injuries why do you not think our defense can continue to be top three in the nfl. its been done before. you can set around and wait for those 21-0 jump starts, i will just appreciate wins any way i can get them. please do not let your blind loyality to your hate of alex make you sound illogical

Apples and oranges-why? back then those niners had proven themselves. They were off recent back to back SB victories. This team as of right now, is a one hit wonder. They will have to prove themselves. This is true with any sports team. Point is, odds and numbers are against them, although I am hopping they beat the odds, that is why I am not having a cow over the articles.
  • cciowa
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 25,210
Originally posted by danimal:
ha ha, are you even reading what I am talking about. Nobody is saying you can't have a single season with lots of close wins, the argument is it is really difficult to have 2 seasons in a row like that.

It is pointless to point out a team with one season. Please share with the group which team you know of that had 2 seasons like that in a row.

And the 1990 49ers were the 1990 49ers, in case you missed it they were the team of the decade so everything about them was exceptional.

If the 2013 49ers were coming off of 4 SB wins in the last 8 seasons, we would not even be having this talk and Football outsiders would have so much positive data that they would be predicting 12-4 at least.

That was a terrible analogy my friend
my point is that good teams win, it does not matter by how much, they win and that is the bottom line. sometimes people just get caught up to much in history and data and stats. i could really care less what team in nfl history has won close games two years in a row.it means nothing. i know you said our specail teams and defense have to come down to earth but you did not say why? is it because no one ever had the outstanding special teams that we have had two years in a row? maybe it is our destiny to have top nfl special teams for the next five years, maybe it is our destiny to have the nfls top defense for the next five years. barring injuries, why not?
The other big factor is offense. Nobody is sure how the niners are going to play it with RM and Manningham and L. James-That is why any drop off by the ST and D must be made by O to sustain the winning ways. That is the perception which will remain until proven otherwise to the league and observers.

Although, our D is intact, the thing is having the same players and seeing how the niners play-the opponents will have a whole season to poor over film and see tendencies. Last year, nobody knew how they were going to play. The players like Aldon and Culliver will have to improve along with being more familiar with one another is the biggie more than the playbook
Isn't the this the same 'supercomputer' which last year generated the 49ers with 5 wins, and the Eagles & Chargers in the Superbowl?

Yeah, move along... nothing to see here.
Originally posted by SnakePlissken:
Isn't the this the same 'supercomputer' which last year generated the 49ers with 5 wins, and the Eagles & Chargers in the Superbowl?

Yeah, move along... nothing to see here.

LOL is that true?
  • cciowa
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 25,210
Originally posted by WildBill:
The other big factor is offense. Nobody is sure how the niners are going to play it with RM and Manningham and L. James-That is why any drop off by the ST and D must be made by O to sustain the winning ways. That is the perception which will remain until proven otherwise to the league and observers.

Although, our D is intact, the thing is having the same players and seeing how the niners play-the opponents will have a whole season to poor over film and see tendencies. Last year, nobody knew how they were going to play. The players like Aldon and Culliver will have to improve along with being more familiar with one another is the biggie more than the playbook

no amount of film will help teams when they look at what we do and what we control so very well on defense. There is no play the other teams offense can put in to take away our speed we have on defense and the angles we take on defense and how we wrap and tackle. the only way we will stop being a top three nfl defense in my opinion is if we suffer multiple major injuries or if we just stop doing those little things that we control. if we do those things, it is hard for other teams to find a weakness. again the ravens have been doing this for ten plus years.. who is to say we are going to become the nfc version , in the next ten years, of what the ravens have been in the afc. gotta have some faith. they can pour over as much film as they want. no one hits as hard or tackles as well as we do. what we do and what we control is the biggie in my opinion
Originally posted by SnakePlissken:
Isn't the this the same 'supercomputer' which last year generated the 49ers with 5 wins, and the Eagles & Chargers in the Superbowl?

Yeah, move along... nothing to see here.

Are you serious? It predicted us Five wins and we win the division? I think it was another prognosticaotor you are talking about..
Originally posted by cciowa:
no amount of film will help teams when they look at what we do and what we control so very well on defense. There is no play the other teams offense can put in to take away our speed we have on defense and the angles we take on defense and how we wrap and tackle. the only way we will stop being a top three nfl defense in my opinion is if we suffer multiple major injuries or if we just stop doing those little things that we control. if we do those things, it is hard for other teams to find a weakness. again the ravens have been doing this for ten plus years.. who is to say we are going to become the nfc version , in the next ten years, of what the ravens have been in the afc. gotta have some faith. they can pour over as much film as they want. no one hits as hard or tackles as well as we do. what we do and what we control is the biggie in my opinion

I think you are right on about that. Patrick Willis will be our version of Ray Lewis. They are basically identical anyway, same number same size, same sideline to sideline ability.
Originally posted by cciowa:
no amount of film will help teams when they look at what we do and what we control so very well on defense. There is no play the other teams offense can put in to take away our speed we have on defense and the angles we take on defense and how we wrap and tackle. the only way we will stop being a top three nfl defense in my opinion is if we suffer multiple major injuries or if we just stop doing those little things that we control. if we do those things, it is hard for other teams to find a weakness. again the ravens have been doing this for ten plus years.. who is to say we are going to become the nfc version , in the next ten years, of what the ravens have been in the afc. gotta have some faith. they can pour over as much film as they want. no one hits as hard or tackles as well as we do. what we do and what we control is the biggie in my opinion

Then how do you explain some of the games where the defense failed-even in games we won?

To say no film will help is incorrect. We are creatures of habits and tendencies. You just have to find it. does a guy do this when you do that, does the defense does this when you do that? You look at film, see how they are playing in the games thencompare how they are playing in the game with you and adjust. You here about it from all the great players from Ray Lewis to P Willis, to Ronnie Lott, they all study film and then some. Jerry studied a lot also, he didn't just work it on the hill, he worked in the film room with Walsh-why do you think he got the best of Dieon and not vice versa.
Originally posted by danimal:
Originally posted by SofaKing:
Originally posted by danimal:
I agree with them 100%.

First off, the fact that the Niners appeared in the NFC Championship game last season is not nearly enough to rest your hat on. This forum really amazes me. All I have heard over the last decade about other teams is how much they suck, and when they make it to the Championship game or even the Super Bowl(Seahawks cough, Cardinals cough) is how much of a flluke it was and how they won't repeat. AND YOU WERE RIGHT, they pretty much did suck and they did NOT repeat.

Now its our turn and somehow and for some magical reason it's different. Take the homer glasses off and listen to what Football Outsiders is saying.

They are saying we won far too many close games last season and statistically that almost never carries over to the next season.

Odds are the Niners won't be over performing again next season and further yet they may lose a majority of the close games that Championship caliber squads avoid but the Niners seem to always play for.

Too many close games, The D and ST must came back to earth at some point, and Alex Smith is well....Alex Smith

I'm sorry, but there is no way we only win 7 games. Too much talent, and good coaching. Even in 2010 we managed 6 wins, and that season was a complete train-wreck.

Perhaps I'm delusional, but don't good teams typically win close games? You just can't say "If you take away most of their close wins, they wouldn't make the playoffs." Well no s**t. If you take away most of the close wins from any good team, they probably don't make the playoffs. That's like saying if you took away most of Barry Sanders big runs, his stats weren't that great.

The point is, this team is stacked with talent and did nothing but improve during the off-season. All 11 starters return on D, improved offense, great special teams, continuity, and top-notch coaching. What's not to like?


good teams blow out their opponents typically. That is how you get out of "one hit wonder" "fluke" status. Statistical analysis shows that teams generally don't have winning records, 2 seasons in a row....when asked to play in close contests at a higher than average rate

Anybody who thinks this season hinges on the Defense is off their rocker....you better look at the Offense for once and ask....where is our 21-0 jump starts??

Hmm, I would say you would need a lot more evidence than anecdotal dreams of becoming some extreme version of the Packers or Patriots or Saints. First and foremost the league itself has been engineered for parity based on high scoring contests. Look at the most recent world champs and how they got to the Super Bowl - it wasn't a string of blowouts during the regular season that got them there. They got hot at the right time and won games first against teams they should beat and then pulled off a couple of key wins against closely matched opponents and finally a rare upset. String those wins together and you have a winning teamed headed into the playoffs.

What I found interesting about the FO article was that NO team had more than something like 8.4 wins on average. Interesting. Furthermore, it's not clearly established what a teams baseline performance would be in order to predict performance over the next few games and over a season. So did we see a baseline performance of both special teams, offense and defense? Was it the average? Was it the high point? It's impossible to predict a teams performance accurately or even generally because simply there isn't enough data. Any performance data prior to the Harbaugh regime can't possibly be part of a credible data set in the analysis. Furthermore what other important aspect doesn't this statistical analysis miss? New players. New schemes. Health.

There is a trend more credible than this analysis; good organizations seem to consistently put a better product on the field in many cases despite the variable impact of new players/lost players, schemes (or coaches) and health. Those teams always find themselves competitive, making it easier to ride a wave of fortune or weather a wave of bad luck. It starts with a FO that understand what type of players the HC needs and the HC finding a staff that teaches players how to execute and scheme that maximizes those players talents while minimizing their weaknesses. Of course players with more talent have less weaknesses and that certainly plays a part.

I think the Niners will win more than 7.1 games because I have more faith that this team will be even better prepared (on offense) on game days than all the teams in their division - even with them "gunning" for the 49ers.