Originally posted by danimal:
Originally posted by SofaKing:
Originally posted by danimal:
I agree with them 100%.
First off, the fact that the Niners appeared in the NFC Championship game last season is not nearly enough to rest your hat on. This forum really amazes me. All I have heard over the last decade about other teams is how much they suck, and when they make it to the Championship game or even the Super Bowl(Seahawks cough, Cardinals cough) is how much of a flluke it was and how they won't repeat. AND YOU WERE RIGHT, they pretty much did suck and they did NOT repeat.
Now its our turn and somehow and for some magical reason it's different. Take the homer glasses off and listen to what Football Outsiders is saying.
They are saying we won far too many close games last season and statistically that almost never carries over to the next season.
Odds are the Niners won't be over performing again next season and further yet they may lose a majority of the close games that Championship caliber squads avoid but the Niners seem to always play for.
Too many close games, The D and ST must came back to earth at some point, and Alex Smith is well....Alex Smith
I'm sorry, but there is no way we only win 7 games. Too much talent, and good coaching. Even in 2010 we managed 6 wins, and that season was a complete train-wreck.
Perhaps I'm delusional, but don't good teams typically win close games? You just can't say "If you take away most of their close wins, they wouldn't make the playoffs." Well no s**t. If you take away most of the close wins from any good team, they probably don't make the playoffs. That's like saying if you took away most of Barry Sanders big runs, his stats weren't that great.
The point is, this team is stacked with talent and did nothing but improve during the off-season. All 11 starters return on D, improved offense, great special teams, continuity, and top-notch coaching. What's not to like?
good teams blow out their opponents typically. That is how you get out of "one hit wonder" "fluke" status. Statistical analysis shows that teams generally don't have winning records, 2 seasons in a row....when asked to play in close contests at a higher than average rate
Anybody who thinks this season hinges on the Defense is off their rocker....you better look at the Offense for once and ask....where is our 21-0 jump starts??
Hmm, I would say you would need a lot more evidence than anecdotal dreams of becoming some extreme version of the Packers or Patriots or Saints. First and foremost the league itself has been engineered for parity based on high scoring contests. Look at the most recent world champs and how they got to the Super Bowl - it wasn't a string of blowouts during the regular season that got them there. They got hot at the right time and won games first against teams they should beat and then pulled off a couple of key wins against closely matched opponents and finally a rare upset. String those wins together and you have a winning teamed headed into the playoffs.
What I found interesting about the FO article was that NO team had more than something like 8.4 wins on average. Interesting. Furthermore, it's not clearly established what a teams baseline performance would be in order to predict performance over the next few games and over a season. So did we see a baseline performance of both special teams, offense and defense? Was it the average? Was it the high point? It's impossible to predict a teams performance accurately or even generally because simply there isn't enough data. Any performance data prior to the Harbaugh regime can't possibly be part of a credible data set in the analysis. Furthermore what other important aspect doesn't this statistical analysis miss? New players. New schemes. Health.
There is a trend more credible than this analysis; good organizations seem to consistently put a better product on the field in many cases despite the variable impact of new players/lost players, schemes (or coaches) and health. Those teams always find themselves competitive, making it easier to ride a wave of fortune or weather a wave of bad luck. It starts with a FO that understand what type of players the HC needs and the HC finding a staff that teaches players how to execute and scheme that maximizes those players talents while minimizing their weaknesses. Of course players with more talent have less weaknesses and that certainly plays a part.
I think the Niners will win more than 7.1 games because I have more faith that this team will be even better prepared (on offense) on game days than all the teams in their division - even with them "gunning" for the 49ers.