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Really? 7.2 Wins?

I agree with them 100%.

First off, the fact that the Niners appeared in the NFC Championship game last season is not nearly enough to rest your hat on. This forum really amazes me. All I have heard over the last decade about other teams is how much they suck, and when they make it to the Championship game or even the Super Bowl(Seahawks cough, Cardinals cough) is how much of a flluke it was and how they won't repeat. AND YOU WERE RIGHT, they pretty much did suck and they did NOT repeat.

Now its our turn and somehow and for some magical reason it's different. Take the homer glasses off and listen to what Football Outsiders is saying.

They are saying we won far too many close games last season and statistically that almost never carries over to the next season.

Odds are the Niners won't be over performing again next season and further yet they may lose a majority of the close games that Championship caliber squads avoid but the Niners seem to always play for.

Too many close games, The D and ST must came back to earth at some point, and Alex Smith is well....Alex Smith
  • cciowa
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 26,927
Originally posted by danimal:
I agree with them 100%.

First off, the fact that the Niners appeared in the NFC Championship game last season is not nearly enough to rest your hat on. This forum really amazes me. All I have heard over the last decade about other teams is how much they suck, and when they make it to the Championship game or even the Super Bowl(Seahawks cough, Cardinals cough) is how much of a flluke it was and how they won't repeat. AND YOU WERE RIGHT, they pretty much did suck and they did NOT repeat.

Now its our turn and somehow and for some magical reason it's different. Take the homer glasses off and listen to what Football Outsiders is saying.

They are saying we won far too many close games last season and statistically that almost never carries over to the next season.

Odds are the Niners won't be over performing again next season and further yet they may lose a majority of the close games that Championship caliber squads avoid but the Niners seem to always play for.

Too many close games, The D and ST must came back to earth at some point, and Alex Smith is well....Alex Smith
well I guess we all better hide under the bed till the season is over
Originally posted by cciowa:
Originally posted by danimal:
I agree with them 100%.

First off, the fact that the Niners appeared in the NFC Championship game last season is not nearly enough to rest your hat on. This forum really amazes me. All I have heard over the last decade about other teams is how much they suck, and when they make it to the Championship game or even the Super Bowl(Seahawks cough, Cardinals cough) is how much of a flluke it was and how they won't repeat. AND YOU WERE RIGHT, they pretty much did suck and they did NOT repeat.

Now its our turn and somehow and for some magical reason it's different. Take the homer glasses off and listen to what Football Outsiders is saying.

They are saying we won far too many close games last season and statistically that almost never carries over to the next season.

Odds are the Niners won't be over performing again next season and further yet they may lose a majority of the close games that Championship caliber squads avoid but the Niners seem to always play for.

Too many close games, The D and ST must came back to earth at some point, and Alex Smith is well....Alex Smith
well I guess we all better hide under the bed till the season is over


I would recommend enjoying the season to the fullest like I do with realistic expectations
Originally posted by danimal:
I agree with them 100%.

First off, the fact that the Niners appeared in the NFC Championship game last season is not nearly enough to rest your hat on. This forum really amazes me. All I have heard over the last decade about other teams is how much they suck, and when they make it to the Championship game or even the Super Bowl(Seahawks cough, Cardinals cough) is how much of a flluke it was and how they won't repeat. AND YOU WERE RIGHT, they pretty much did suck and they did NOT repeat.

Now its our turn and somehow and for some magical reason it's different. Take the homer glasses off and listen to what Football Outsiders is saying.

They are saying we won far too many close games last season and statistically that almost never carries over to the next season.

Odds are the Niners won't be over performing again next season and further yet they may lose a majority of the close games that Championship caliber squads avoid but the Niners seem to always play for.

Too many close games, The D and ST must came back to earth at some point, and Alex Smith is well....Alex Smith

Normally I would have to agree, but there is something special about Harbaugh. He is what makes it an exception for this team. It wasn't a fluke that he showed up and a team that couldn't win more than 7 games all of a sudden wins double that and ends up in the playoffs. How could that be considered a fluke? I also don't understand people stating it like a fact that our defense can't match last year. Says who? They could very well do better than last year for all we know.

Of course you end this pessimistic sentiment with a rip on Alex. Should have seen that coming.

I think the tougher schedule will elevate this team to play even better. They were so close they could taste it, and the burn of that loss in the NFC championship wont leave those guys (or Harbaugh) until they make it to a superbowl. That motivation alone tells me our D will play better than last year or at least very good again.
  • cciowa
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 26,927
Originally posted by danimal:
I would recommend enjoying the season to the fullest like I do with realistic expectations
7 or 9 wins is not realistic in my opinion.not with what we have on the roster, not with the chemistry we have and esp because we do the fundamentals so very well on defense. Those are the things we can control and if we do them of course we will win ten plus games and be in the playoffs again
Originally posted by danimal:
I agree with them 100%.

First off, the fact that the Niners appeared in the NFC Championship game last season is not nearly enough to rest your hat on. This forum really amazes me. All I have heard over the last decade about other teams is how much they suck, and when they make it to the Championship game or even the Super Bowl(Seahawks cough, Cardinals cough) is how much of a flluke it was and how they won't repeat. AND YOU WERE RIGHT, they pretty much did suck and they did NOT repeat.

Now its our turn and somehow and for some magical reason it's different. Take the homer glasses off and listen to what Football Outsiders is saying.

They are saying we won far too many close games last season and statistically that almost never carries over to the next season.

Odds are the Niners won't be over performing again next season and further yet they may lose a majority of the close games that Championship caliber squads avoid but the Niners seem to always play for.

Too many close games, The D and ST must came back to earth at some point, and Alex Smith is well....Alex Smith

I'm sorry, but there is no way we only win 7 games. Too much talent, and good coaching. Even in 2010 we managed 6 wins, and that season was a complete train-wreck.

Perhaps I'm delusional, but don't good teams typically win close games? You just can't say "If you take away most of their close wins, they wouldn't make the playoffs." Well no s**t. If you take away most of the close wins from any good team, they probably don't make the playoffs. That's like saying if you took away most of Barry Sanders big runs, his stats weren't that great.

The point is, this team is stacked with talent and did nothing but improve during the off-season. All 11 starters return on D, improved offense, great special teams, continuity, and top-notch coaching. What's not to like?
Originally posted by SofaKing:
Originally posted by danimal:
I agree with them 100%.

First off, the fact that the Niners appeared in the NFC Championship game last season is not nearly enough to rest your hat on. This forum really amazes me. All I have heard over the last decade about other teams is how much they suck, and when they make it to the Championship game or even the Super Bowl(Seahawks cough, Cardinals cough) is how much of a flluke it was and how they won't repeat. AND YOU WERE RIGHT, they pretty much did suck and they did NOT repeat.

Now its our turn and somehow and for some magical reason it's different. Take the homer glasses off and listen to what Football Outsiders is saying.

They are saying we won far too many close games last season and statistically that almost never carries over to the next season.

Odds are the Niners won't be over performing again next season and further yet they may lose a majority of the close games that Championship caliber squads avoid but the Niners seem to always play for.

Too many close games, The D and ST must came back to earth at some point, and Alex Smith is well....Alex Smith

I'm sorry, but there is no way we only win 7 games. Too much talent, and good coaching. Even in 2010 we managed 6 wins, and that season was a complete train-wreck.

Perhaps I'm delusional, but don't good teams typically win close games? You just can't say "If you take away most of their close wins, they wouldn't make the playoffs." Well no s**t. If you take away most of the close wins from any good team, they probably don't make the playoffs. That's like saying if you took away most of Barry Sanders big runs, his stats weren't that great.

The point is, this team is stacked with talent and did nothing but improve during the off-season. All 11 starters return on D, improved offense, great special teams, continuity, and top-notch coaching. What's not to like?


good teams blow out their opponents typically. That is how you get out of "one hit wonder" "fluke" status. Statistical analysis shows that teams generally don't have winning records, 2 seasons in a row....when asked to play in close contests at a higher than average rate

Anybody who thinks this season hinges on the Defense is off their rocker....you better look at the Offense for once and ask....where is our 21-0 jump starts??
[ Edited by danimal on Jul 19, 2012 at 3:59 PM ]
Originally posted by 49erLegacy:
Did they predict a 13-3 record last year? NFC West crown? Trip to the NFC Championship?

Well according to Kevin Lynch he thinks they were the only ones that predicted the niners would win the division.

I don't know why you all getting upset. In the article by Kevin Lynch, they explained why and they did touch on some good points like Alex threw an absurbedly low amount of intercpetions. Add to that the amount amount of T.O. Created by the Defense has high.

We all know that they played almost flawless. Except for wide receiver we were a healthy team. Add to that, on paper our schedule is harder. They also are just playing the odds, saying that in the last 10 years 26 of 29 teams that went from losing records to 10+ wins fell back to earth. Even to teams that have won a superbowl. Although 7.2 wins is to low. Here is to hoping we are in the 3 of the 29 teams that don't. I figure 11 wins, at best 12. However, as the Giants showed, it is not how much wins (look at the pack), but how you finish.
Originally posted by WildBill:
Originally posted by 49erLegacy:
Did they predict a 13-3 record last year? NFC West crown? Trip to the NFC Championship?

Well according to Kevin Lynch he thinks they were the only ones that predicted the niners would win the division.

I don't know why you all getting upset. In the article by Kevin Lynch, they explained why and they did touch on some good points like Alex threw an absurbedly low amount of intercpetions. Add to that the amount amount of T.O. Created by the Defense has high.

We all know that they played almost flawless. Except for wide receiver we were a healthy team. Add to that, on paper our schedule is harder. They also are just playing the odds, saying that in the last 10 years 26 of 29 teams that went from losing records to 10+ wins fell back to earth. Even to teams that have won a superbowl. Although 7.2 wins is to low. Here is to hoping we are in the 3 of the 29 teams that don't. I figure 11 wins, at best 12. However, as the Giants showed, it is not how much wins (look at the pack), but how you finish.


well said, and they also don't predict any other team in the NFC West to win more than 7 so they are not saying...nor am I, that it is not very doable to win this division.

Once in the playoffs, a lot of our faults become virtues....that team you never want to be in a close battle with
Originally posted by danimal:
Originally posted by SofaKing:
Originally posted by danimal:
I agree with them 100%.

First off, the fact that the Niners appeared in the NFC Championship game last season is not nearly enough to rest your hat on. This forum really amazes me. All I have heard over the last decade about other teams is how much they suck, and when they make it to the Championship game or even the Super Bowl(Seahawks cough, Cardinals cough) is how much of a flluke it was and how they won't repeat. AND YOU WERE RIGHT, they pretty much did suck and they did NOT repeat.

Now its our turn and somehow and for some magical reason it's different. Take the homer glasses off and listen to what Football Outsiders is saying.

They are saying we won far too many close games last season and statistically that almost never carries over to the next season.

Odds are the Niners won't be over performing again next season and further yet they may lose a majority of the close games that Championship caliber squads avoid but the Niners seem to always play for.

Too many close games, The D and ST must came back to earth at some point, and Alex Smith is well....Alex Smith

I'm sorry, but there is no way we only win 7 games. Too much talent, and good coaching. Even in 2010 we managed 6 wins, and that season was a complete train-wreck.

Perhaps I'm delusional, but don't good teams typically win close games? You just can't say "If you take away most of their close wins, they wouldn't make the playoffs." Well no s**t. If you take away most of the close wins from any good team, they probably don't make the playoffs. That's like saying if you took away most of Barry Sanders big runs, his stats weren't that great.

The point is, this team is stacked with talent and did nothing but improve during the off-season. All 11 starters return on D, improved offense, great special teams, continuity, and top-notch coaching. What's not to like?


good teams blow out their opponents typically. That is how you get out of "one hit wonder" "fluke" status. Statistical analysis shows that teams generally don't have winning records, 2 seasons in a row....when asked to play in close contests at a higher than average rate

Anybody who thinks this season hinges on the Defense is off their rocker....you better look at the Offense for once and ask....where is our 21-0 jump starts??

We ranked 4th in margin of victory average. Only the Saints, Packers, and Patriots won games by a greater margin than we did. Good teams blowout lesser teams on occasion, but for the most part games come down to the final 4:00 minutes.

I'll admit that we did catch some unique breaks last year (injuries, turnover differential), as well as the defense playing at superhuman levels. Even if the defense regresses, it can't be by much, not with all 11 starters coming back. The offense on the other hand appears to be much improved. I don't see how anyone could predict us to go 7-9 when you add all the pieces together.
[ Edited by SofaKing on Jul 19, 2012 at 4:28 PM ]
Originally posted by cciowa:
7 or 9 wins is not realistic in my opinion.not with what we have on the roster, not with the chemistry we have and esp because we do the fundamentals so very well on defense. Those are the things we can control and if we do them of course we will win ten plus games and be in the playoffs again

It is not always the most talented, you need a little luck, like being injury free or the ball bouncing your way. Talanted perhaps, but some injuries at key positions can cause a train wreck. since this is a passing league what happens if two dbs go down and they play 4 wr sets?

If is going to pass more or go for the big plays more often, expect his int. rate to go up. Also, ST-not just Ginn, but a pulled hammy to the kicker can cause problems too.
  • cciowa
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 26,927
Originally posted by danimal:
good teams blow out their opponents typically. That is how you get out of "one hit wonder" "fluke" status. Statistical analysis shows that teams generally don't have winning records, 2 seasons in a row....when asked to play in close contests at a higher than average rate

Anybody who thinks this season hinges on the Defense is off their rocker....you better look at the Offense for once and ask....where is our 21-0 jump starts??
tell that to the 90 niners team that won most of thier games by a small margin and then went onto the nfc title game vs the giants where they lost on a fumble. good teams win, they win, they win by one, they win by 30, they win. i am unsure why so many quibble with how much we win by or how many yards alex will throw for. You win, you win anyway shape or form you can. I also disagree with a statement you made in a earlier post about"our defense has to come down to earth". why? the ravens have been a great defensive team for ten years, who is to say we can not or are becoming that type of a team with that type of a defense? why must our defense "come down". they have speed, they are the best tackling team in the nfl, they do the fundamentals very well. they do a great job controlling what they can control. barring massive injuries why do you not think our defense can continue to be top three in the nfl. its been done before. you can set around and wait for those 21-0 jump starts, i will just appreciate wins any way i can get them. please do not let your blind loyality to your hate of alex make you sound illogical
Originally posted by SofaKing:
Originally posted by danimal:
Originally posted by SofaKing:
Originally posted by danimal:
I agree with them 100%.

First off, the fact that the Niners appeared in the NFC Championship game last season is not nearly enough to rest your hat on. This forum really amazes me. All I have heard over the last decade about other teams is how much they suck, and when they make it to the Championship game or even the Super Bowl(Seahawks cough, Cardinals cough) is how much of a flluke it was and how they won't repeat. AND YOU WERE RIGHT, they pretty much did suck and they did NOT repeat.

Now its our turn and somehow and for some magical reason it's different. Take the homer glasses off and listen to what Football Outsiders is saying.

They are saying we won far too many close games last season and statistically that almost never carries over to the next season.

Odds are the Niners won't be over performing again next season and further yet they may lose a majority of the close games that Championship caliber squads avoid but the Niners seem to always play for.

Too many close games, The D and ST must came back to earth at some point, and Alex Smith is well....Alex Smith

I'm sorry, but there is no way we only win 7 games. Too much talent, and good coaching. Even in 2010 we managed 6 wins, and that season was a complete train-wreck.

Perhaps I'm delusional, but don't good teams typically win close games? You just can't say "If you take away most of their close wins, they wouldn't make the playoffs." Well no s**t. If you take away most of the close wins from any good team, they probably don't make the playoffs. That's like saying if you took away most of Barry Sanders big runs, his stats weren't that great.

The point is, this team is stacked with talent and did nothing but improve during the off-season. All 11 starters return on D, improved offense, great special teams, continuity, and top-notch coaching. What's not to like?


good teams blow out their opponents typically. That is how you get out of "one hit wonder" "fluke" status. Statistical analysis shows that teams generally don't have winning records, 2 seasons in a row....when asked to play in close contests at a higher than average rate

Anybody who thinks this season hinges on the Defense is off their rocker....you better look at the Offense for once and ask....where is our 21-0 jump starts??

We ranked 4th in margin of victory average. Only the Saints, Packers, and Patriots won games by a greater margin than we did. Most games come down to the wire. The good teams blow lesser teams out on occasion, but for the most part the final 4:00 minutes of games determines your success through the year.

This. And the team didn't even have an off-season. They added major pieces and stayed completely intact on the defensive side of the ball. They will improve in a lot of aspects in which they never got the chance to work on during the lock-out. 7 wins? WIth this defense, and a decent offense? I just don't see it. Joe Montana recently came out and talked about the 9ers being a legit contender.

I understand there is reason to be skeptical, but there is also a whole lot to look forward too. I personally think we win 10-12 games, win the division, and have a legit shot making a run.
Originally posted by SofaKing:
We ranked 4th in margin of victory average. Only the Saints, Packers, and Patriots won games by a greater margin than we did. Most games come down to the wire. The good teams blow lesser teams out on occasion, but for the most part the final 4:00 minutes of games determines your success through the year.

Okay-but they are the ones that have at least proven themselves as they repeated as playoff contenders. They also have trmendous offenses. Which, other than the saints, they both worked in the ofseason to revamp their def.

Point is expect to lose some (not all) of those close games, like 7-2 in close games with a bad break like the NFC Ch and you can be 5-4 in close games.
  • cciowa
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 26,927
Originally posted by WildBill:
It is not always the most talented, you need a little luck, like being injury free or the ball bouncing your way. Talanted perhaps, but some injuries at key positions can cause a train wreck. since this is a passing league what happens if two dbs go down and they play 4 wr sets?

If is going to pass more or go for the big plays more often, expect his int. rate to go up. Also, ST-not just Ginn, but a pulled hammy to the kicker can cause problems too.
agree with the injury thing. we got lucky last year overall and even when willis went down, grant stepped up. those are things we can not control, It sounds simple and stupid and maybe i am simple and stupid but i still maintain if we do those fundamentals well, those little things we did last year so very well,,, that will again lead to the big things