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Is the 49er Championship Window Closing?

  • Oscar
  • Hall of Fame
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Originally posted by Allx9er:
It may be closing for certain players but that's bout it

That's kinda my point. The windows that are closing are kind of the linch pins to the team (J. Smith, Gore, Whitner to a certain degree, even Greg Roman)
  • Oscar
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Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Oscar, no offense, but I don't think you are thinking big enough. 4 SBs in next 6-8 yrs is very much within our reach. Why?

We have a great team, just missed winning it all by a guy substituting for our #1 PR. Our D and ST are primed to play better this yr than last due to familiarity with one another, and 2ndly, because of incr familiarity with Coach H's playbook. Look for both to be better.(Really)

Somehow, the FO came together, and i would have to thank Jed , in part, for that. We are keeping player-value/$$ at a maximum, which is the cornerstone of building a machine that cranks out Ws and SBs, one yr after another.

GM-HC in a very few short space of time have displayed a talent for renewing the Value/$$ model so that we already are bringing on more p52s, Justins, not to mention WRs, RBs, DLs, OLs, DBs, LBs, and Qbs. Man, Oscar, we have an incredible team, maximally coached up in a few short months, with wise replacement draft picks ....and this is only JHs and TBs first yr together. They aren't just putting together a team, they are laying the groundwork for a dynasty.

The COY and GM of the yr awards were not given to a pair of putzes. What amazes is that Coach H is now one of the top 2 or 3 coaches in the league, and our GM is similarly gifted. No, Oscar, these guys are not just going to win the SB this yr, they are laying groundwork for a long time. Justin will one day give out, p52 the same. But for the first time since coach Walsh, i feel comfortable that these guys are doing the winning thing for the long term, not just this yr.

I completely agree with you in that this FO staff has (I might even say quietly) one of the more stacked rosters in the NFL. But there are some pretty glaring misses, WR among them. AJ Jenkins will be a test for this FO and their ability to draft quality players on the perimeter.

I think the difference between me and other people is that I look at what is right now. And right now J. Smith and others are declining. While some of these players are replaceable (Gore, as crappy as it is, would be replaced by Hunter, Jacobs and James) others cannot be replaced (J. Smith). I don't presume that Baalke can get players to replace them that play at the same level. I can only evaluate what;s on the roster already and where they are going. To presume that Baalke will just continue to have hit after hit in the draft is pure conjecture. I'd rather live in the world where I can analyze what we have and where its going.
Justin Smith will continue to be effective years from now. He will be great until he retires. His game is too fundamentally sound and he is too physically imposing for it not to be. Now that doesn`t mean he will continue to be chasing down WRs from behind in future years, but I`m not too worried about him falling off anytime soon.
i wanna hear BuZzB doing a podcast lol
Originally posted by Ronnie49Lott:
No one else but Oscar could write that and the OP without getting attacked by all the Alex Smith faithfuls. This really should be a place where differing opinions could be voiced without getting ratpacked by everyone including some mods.

Not sure I am following your meaning here either. This wasn't really about Alex Smith, was it? Even if Alex is the precise reason for Oscar to not have faith in our team and its success in the immediate year(s)? I think most would have respected the opinion since it would likely have been maturely expressed. Maybe I or someone else would have asked why he doesn't feel improvement is in store for AS... that's far from attacking someone, right?

Anyway, point is... those who express themselves with maturity and reason don't typically get "attacked." Those who act like posturing bullies and deliberately try to incite do get called out to further explain their thinking. They sometimes do get accused of having an agenda.. being a troll... having a perverse bias against a player on their team.

This IS a place where differing opinions can be expressed... but if a person is being an arse in their efforts to express that opinion? Yeah, it doesn't get responded to with kindness. This thread was about an entire overview of the team and where everyone feels we can be in the following years. At least, that is what I thought it to be. Maybe keep the AS stuff in the AS thread then.
Originally posted by Oscar:
And right now J. Smith and others are declining.

... How is Justin declining? From what I see and read, he is at the very top of his game and in terrific physical condition. I understand that Justin is 32 yrs old, and that many DL wear down and decline in their 30's. Justin may or may not in the near future, but it seems to me that with his work ethic, he can be a productive starter for another 3 years. Maybe more... Bryant Young played till he was 35, and he had a steel rod inserted in his leg from a brutal injury. Reggie White played while 39 yrs old.

Saying that Justin is declining as of now... I'm not understanding why you think that. Thinking that our coaches are not good enough to find a youngster to develop for 2-4 yrs as his successor. ( I know you aren't outright saying that, but you do rather suggest it ) Good players get old and decline... but good coaches find and develop young replacements that can step in and keep the position strong. Exactly what kinds of breakdowns do you envision for us down the road? Do you doubt that we will win our division more than twice in the next 5 years? Think we will fall back to a below .500 team for a couple of years straight?
Now that the team has achieved success, how will they manage it? Will they become more self-centered than team-centered? For instance, Vernon's declaration that he'll be the best TE ever might be a sign he's thinking of personal goals rather than team goals.
Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
Now that the team has achieved success, how will they manage it? Will they become more self-centered than team-centered? For instance, Vernon's declaration that he'll be the best TE ever might be a sign he's thinking of personal goals rather than team goals.

I don't think so. All we keep hearing about the mentality trickling down from Jim is that we are a blue-collar, selfless team that has no interest in player's egos. We many have a guy or two that at moments puts himself above the team.. a stupid TD celebration or fight that draws a flag or something. That's just gonna happen at times. Overall though, I think Jim and Co. select team players with the maturity and attitude to keep us focused as a team on a that singular goal of winning... and they have the quiet but solid iron-fist respect to keep the players on that path.
I really disagree that the team is dependent on a few superstars who make or break the team. Yes, it is important to have great players like Willis and J Smith but as their skills diminish new guys will rise to take their place because management and coaches will continue to do a good job. I really don't see Baalke and Harbaugh as guys who will let things slide.

And Oscar--the niners have missed on one sixth round WR (Johnson), hit on another sixth (Williams is at least decent for a sixth) and then have Crabtree and Jenkins as first rounders, neither could be considered a bust at this point. They took a shot at Edwards last year and he was looking interesting until injured...but they did not spend big on top FAs and (as much as I wanted one) they were probably smart not to overpay.

There is no sign that they evaluate talent poorly or that they are going to sacrifice the salary cap to a hit/miss star FA. My disagreement with those who see a closing window is a belief that coaching is more important than star players. One factor that supports this is that almost all the "stars" on the 9ers are blue collar guys who are not egocentric. VD is the exception but he is a good team mate by all accounts.

For those who believe Alex Smith is not a championship caliber QB--you should take solace in the fact that he almost led the team to the super bowl last year and he did not let the team down in the end--STs did. For those who think Smith is a good QB the future is rosy for a number of years as he continues to develop under Harbaugh.
Originally posted by coeliyian:
Gore has a sunroof bro, he will just open it when we need it. ie: this year in the playoffs, he will go "beast mode" (borrowing from marshawn lynch) and help us major when we need it.

Let's hope so, he would look good with a ring!
Michael Strahan was replaced. As great as J. Smith is, if the front office does it's job right, anybody can be replaced. I still think he has a few good years left.

What I like about the front office, is that the team is loaded because they don't over spend on anybody. A. J. Jenkins may of may not pan out, but for every Jenkins, there is an Aldon Smith. That's true of any team.

The team has yet to win a Superbowl in this era, and it just made the playoffs last year. At this point it is so early in the process, that you could just as easily make a case for the beginning of a dynasty as you could for windows closing. As a fan, I prefer to believe that we are off on another 20 year run.
I just have a hard time believing a Harbaugh led team wont be competitive.
Originally posted by Oscar:
Originally posted by Allx9er:
It may be closing for certain players but that's bout it

That's kinda my point. The windows that are closing are kind of the linch pins to the team (J. Smith, Gore, Whitner to a certain degree, even Greg Roman)

Idk i see see cowboy playing 2-3 years more years with little to no drop off during the first two, lineman are like the elephants of the league. But more to your point, i BELIEVE in coach Tsmaula (sp) ability to mold D linemen. When j smith does retire i hope/expect/believe that harbaalke will go get an explosive athlete for coach T to forge into another monster.

Frank is frank and we all know that its coming to an end but that's why hunter and lmj are here for. Frank was always a linch pin partly do to previous staffs inability to put together a viable passing attack for whatever reason (well chronicled) as well as franks own ability to carry the rock. With rathman pushing these guys im not worried. Rathman turned barlow into a good back, he went back to garbage because he didnt have coach on his arse. Rathman got every once of talent outta huggybear's son too.

I think whitner is younger then goldson so i don't think his window is closing at all. I gotta admit i like the leadership he brought to the back half, i thought he was wolfn a bit when talked about his role.

If anything im most concerned about roman. I don't think he makes it past two years especially if they get the 6th ring. I really hope harbaugh has a few choices in mind who he TRUSTS to call the bulk of the plays. I can convince myself that harbaugh can manage the game and call the plays when i wear my red n gold glasses but it still isn't the ideal situation imho. Seen enough coaches try and fail to want to see harbaugh give it a go. Especially now since the team and fans have set the bar so high.

GO NINERS!!!!!!!!
[ Edited by Allx9er on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:46 PM ]
Closing? It is just now opening. LOL
  • Oscar
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Originally posted by dtg_9er:
I really disagree that the team is dependent on a few superstars who make or break the team. Yes, it is important to have great players like Willis and J Smith but as their skills diminish new guys will rise to take their place because management and coaches will continue to do a good job. I really don't see Baalke and Harbaugh as guys who will let things slide.

And Oscar--the niners have missed on one sixth round WR (Johnson), hit on another sixth (Williams is at least decent for a sixth) and then have Crabtree and Jenkins as first rounders, neither could be considered a bust at this point. They took a shot at Edwards last year and he was looking interesting until injured...but they did not spend big on top FAs and (as much as I wanted one) they were probably smart not to overpay.

There is no sign that they evaluate talent poorly or that they are going to sacrifice the salary cap to a hit/miss star FA. My disagreement with those who see a closing window is a belief that coaching is more important than star players. One factor that supports this is that almost all the "stars" on the 9ers are blue collar guys who are not egocentric. VD is the exception but he is a good team mate by all accounts.

For those who believe Alex Smith is not a championship caliber QB--you should take solace in the fact that he almost led the team to the super bowl last year and he did not let the team down in the end--STs did. For those who think Smith is a good QB the future is rosy for a number of years as he continues to develop under Harbaugh.

The 49ers now have 4 1st round WRs. (Moss, Crabtree, Jenkins, Ginn). If this group of WRs can't get it done, then you have to think that the FO has a little problem with evaluating the WR position. We're no Matt Millen by any stretch, but it's worrisome to have so many WRs come through without a consistent threat. Although, it is hard to evaluate Baalke because he's only been in power for a year, but he was still part of the scouting organization prior to his promotion.

And yes, I agree that K. Williams, despite his standing with the fans, was a great pickup. We need more players like him, preferably the ones we draft in the first round.