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Aldon Smith will get 18 QB Sacks or More ?

Aldon Smith will get 18 QB Sacks or More ?

Originally posted by LasVegasWally:
VERY possible.

If we can get more of a PRush from the other side then there are only so many people they can double team.

Justin will definittely get DTeamed. Ray Mac often. If Cam can become a PRushing threat from the other side then Aldon has a better chance to hit 18.

His challenge will, IMO, be more in teams game planning around him and not them taking him out with blockers.

I think I'm more inline with NinerBuff in that while his opportunities will increase, the attention paid to him will be too along with less attention to the front 7 (and they will be successful from it). Last year, it was Brooks who was double-teamed the entire year on the outside including the playoffs; this helps Aldon on the other side. And Aldon played behind Justin Smith who is exception and probably the most selfless player in the game. There is also a HUGE difference between being a pass rush specialist and every down OLB (see Haralson, Parys). All that said, when it's all said and done, I think he will be around 10+ sacks but overall, a complete WILL that we can rely on for years to come...as a bookend. Part of this 10+ will also depend on Fangio using him correctly, moving him around a lot and exploiting mismatches and giving him rests. Bold prediction: I would not be surprised to see Brooks with an edge on him despite playing SAM primarily. We are VERY lucky to have both!
[ Edited by NCommand on May 22, 2012 at 9:39 AM ]
Here's my dream scenario for next season

Aldon Smith 18 QB sacks

Justin Smith 14 QB sacks

Ahmad Brooks 8 QB sacks

Ray Mac 7 QB sacks

Cam Johnson 6 QB Sacks

Parys Haralson 5 QB sacks

Patrick Willis 4 QB sacks

Navarro Bowman 3 QB sacks


this would be the Bad Ass
He will get 9 or 10
I dont get all the doubt? Dude looked completly dominant last year. His 14 sacks do not even reflect how disruptive he really was. Most of the sacks he created himself and even when he didn't sack the QB he brought an amazing amount of pressure.The secret about Aldon was out by late in the season and he only seemed to get better. Dont forget, he even had a sack or two taken away because of penalty. Aldon is not an average low double digit sack guy, like A.Carter. Aldon is a dominnant game changer in the mold of Ware.

Count me in for 18-20 sacks....no homer.
Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
I dont get all the doubt? Dude looked completly dominant last year. His 14 sacks do not even reflect how disruptive he really was. Most of the sacks he created himself and even when he didn't sack the QB he brought an amazing amount of pressure.The secret about Aldon was out by late in the season and he only seemed to get better. Dont forget, he even had a sack or two taken away because of penalty. Aldon is not an average low double digit sack guy, like A.Carter. Aldon is a dominnant game changer in the mold of Ware.

Count me in for 18-20 sacks....no homer.

Originally posted by NeeJ49er:
Here's my dream scenario for next season

Aldon Smith 18 QB sacks

Justin Smith 14 QB sacks

Ahmad Brooks 8 QB sacks

Ray Mac 7 QB sacks

Cam Johnson 6 QB Sacks

Parys Haralson 5 QB sacks

Patrick Willis 4 QB sacks

Navarro Bowman 3 QB sacks


this would be the Bad Ass

you fail
18 is a bit much but then again I thought he'd get about 8 last year and he crushed that.

I do think if he stays healthy he has a great chance at it especially playing behind Justin. He'll be a monster out there but sometimes pressures are just as good.

I'll say he gets 15 but wouldn't be shocked at all to see 18+
Originally posted by NCommand:
No way! Even if Fangio moves him around like a Matthews, he'll be most likely playing every down like Brooks last year. He "may" get double-digit sacks but I highly doubt it d/t the mere fact he'll have to 1) Assess the play 2) Stop the run first (and screens) en route to QB pressures 3) Drop back in zone and 4) Deal with fatigue and OL's now having game tape on him.

If he AND Brooks are close to double-digit sacks (plus all the QB hits/pressures/TO's that come with it), while still stuffing the run (sealing the edge and many TFL's) and doing a solid job dropping back in zone for inside or underneath coverage, it would be a TREMENDOUS year for our defense.

While I expect Aldon to be around 10 sacks (lower than last year) I expect his overall game will increase dramatically...becoming a well-rounded WILL and one of the best in the game eventually.

Aldon has great ability, just because he's now starting doesn't mean he's not going to play in obvious passing downs just like he did last year. Only concern could be him being tired but I think the more snaps out there give him more of a chance to sack the QB not make him less likely.

Having tape on him doesn't change the fact that he and Justin are incredibly difficult to stop at the same time and his physical ability will only improve with more time out there. During 1st and 2nd down he may not be as effective of a pass rusher because he will have to read and react whether it's run or pass but it's not like we're flopping him and Haralson from last year and Parys will now be coming in on obvious passing situations.

Aldon will still be out there for those and will still be coming after the QB like he did last year.
Originally posted by NinerBuff:
There really isn't a good barometer for him. In limited snaps, he was devastating. The other rookies to put up 13+ sacks were:

1. Jevon Kearse 14.5
2. Aldon Smith 14.0 (2 in playoffs)
3. Dwight Freeney 13.0

He's more like Kearse than Freeney. Freeney is a technican, Kearse won the genetic lottery. Freeney has been a great player, Kearse was never able to match his rookie total and slowly declined throughout his career.

Aldon has some of the best raw ability I've ever seen. Huge frame, long arms, great strength, and quick burst. Saying he'd be the next D. Ware last year was laughable, now its definitely reasonable. The only real concern is 1st and 2nd down duty will flag him of us energy and he won't be able to attack the QB as effectively.

I see it a different way. I think he will be better with less sacks. Not because his skills have diminished, but because other guys in our front 7 will take the sacks from him. No longer will Justin Smith and RayRay get doubled. Both Smiths will get doubled, and this could lead to Brooks, Willis, and Bowman to have good pass rushing years.

I guess what I'm saying is Aldon won't be able to muster 14 again, because our front 7 is too good . (he'll be a double digit sack guy, not to worry)

Kearse got hurt and never recovered. His rookie year was clearly his best but I don't think the similarity to Aldon is accurate. They both have long arms, that's kind of it.

Jevon was faster and used his speed and size more. Aldon is quick but he actually uses his strength and long arms more. I'd say he's somewhere in the middle of the two guys mentioned. Plus Kearse was clearly the guy other teams planned on stopping. Tough to do that with this 49ers defense with Justin Smith, Willis, Bowman and Brooks doing what they do.

And as for Freeney tactician? really? Spin move + speed, rinse and repeat.
Originally posted by genus49:
Originally posted by NinerBuff:
There really isn't a good barometer for him. In limited snaps, he was devastating. The other rookies to put up 13+ sacks were:

1. Jevon Kearse 14.5
2. Aldon Smith 14.0 (2 in playoffs)
3. Dwight Freeney 13.0

He's more like Kearse than Freeney. Freeney is a technican, Kearse won the genetic lottery. Freeney has been a great player, Kearse was never able to match his rookie total and slowly declined throughout his career.

Aldon has some of the best raw ability I've ever seen. Huge frame, long arms, great strength, and quick burst. Saying he'd be the next D. Ware last year was laughable, now its definitely reasonable. The only real concern is 1st and 2nd down duty will flag him of us energy and he won't be able to attack the QB as effectively.

I see it a different way. I think he will be better with less sacks. Not because his skills have diminished, but because other guys in our front 7 will take the sacks from him. No longer will Justin Smith and RayRay get doubled. Both Smiths will get doubled, and this could lead to Brooks, Willis, and Bowman to have good pass rushing years.

I guess what I'm saying is Aldon won't be able to muster 14 again, because our front 7 is too good . (he'll be a double digit sack guy, not to worry)

Kearse got hurt and never recovered. His rookie year was clearly his best but I don't think the similarity to Aldon is accurate. They both have long arms, that's kind of it.

Jevon was faster and used his speed and size more. Aldon is quick but he actually uses his strength and long arms more. I'd say he's somewhere in the middle of the two guys mentioned. Plus Kearse was clearly the guy other teams planned on stopping. Tough to do that with this 49ers defense with Justin Smith, Willis, Bowman and Brooks doing what they do.

And as for Freeney tactician? really? Spin move + speed, rinse and repeat.

That's what I meant. The inside spin move and outside spin move are technically challenging and have been devastating for Freeney (up until last season). I never got that feel from Kearse. He was more of the 'elite athlete' type.

But either way, the fact that Aldon can be mentioned with Demarcus Ware, Bruce Smith, and Dwight Freeney after 1 season is amazing and awesome for us!!!
Not out of the question, but 18 is a pretty high target even if he's healthy all year and gets in on more plays.
Originally posted by genus49:
Originally posted by NCommand:
No way! Even if Fangio moves him around like a Matthews, he'll be most likely playing every down like Brooks last year. He "may" get double-digit sacks but I highly doubt it d/t the mere fact he'll have to 1) Assess the play 2) Stop the run first (and screens) en route to QB pressures 3) Drop back in zone and 4) Deal with fatigue and OL's now having game tape on him.

If he AND Brooks are close to double-digit sacks (plus all the QB hits/pressures/TO's that come with it), while still stuffing the run (sealing the edge and many TFL's) and doing a solid job dropping back in zone for inside or underneath coverage, it would be a TREMENDOUS year for our defense.

While I expect Aldon to be around 10 sacks (lower than last year) I expect his overall game will increase dramatically...becoming a well-rounded WILL and one of the best in the game eventually.

Aldon has great ability, just because he's now starting doesn't mean he's not going to play in obvious passing downs just like he did last year. Only concern could be him being tired but I think the more snaps out there give him more of a chance to sack the QB not make him less likely.

Having tape on him doesn't change the fact that he and Justin are incredibly difficult to stop at the same time and his physical ability will only improve with more time out there. During 1st and 2nd down he may not be as effective of a pass rusher because he will have to read and react whether it's run or pass but it's not like we're flopping him and Haralson from last year and Parys will now be coming in on obvious passing situations.

Aldon will still be out there for those and will still be coming after the QB like he did last year.

Fatigue may be a factor but then again, with his youth and training with Justin, it may not be as big of an issue. If his overall sack numbers do decrease it will b/c he'll be getting his barrings set as an every down WILL (TFL, run vs. pass, drop back in coverage, screens, being moved around, etc.), and b/c teams will be more focused on him and most importantly, T's will going 12 rounds with him vs. a tag-in in WWF Smackdown. When a T can match up against you for an entire game, you're going to get one, maybe 3 good shots on him by setting him up all game. Jab, jab, body blow, explosive right then left!

The great thing about Aldon though is that he's got an array of moves and abilities to counter (inside swim, chuck and dump, bull rush, loop under, quick burst, stop and go, etc.) some serious drive and heart and competition with the other guys on the front 7 who won't let him get complacent.
I think it's pretty obvious he's going to be atleast a double digit sack guy most years averaging about 15 like a Demarcus Ware, where 10 sacks is a down year but he has the potential to have a year where he breaks the record. I expect about a sack a game during the regular season so 16 or so. But he always has the potential to get 4 or 5 in a game so he could have a 20 sack season any year in the league. There are too many other good players on our defense to double team him every play.
Originally posted by cashmahne:
My bold prediction of the year is he beats Strahan's sack record. Either way, the Niners will be putting tons of pressure on the QB

Let's slow down. He's a very good pass rusher but the all time record? If the guy "just" gets 10 to 14 sacks a year for the next 7 years, I'd be extremely happy.
Somehow this board is truly underestimating how much of a freak Aldon Smith is. He was 22 years old last year, didn't have an offseason of pro coaching and absolutely dominated opposing offensive lineman in his first truly healthy season of football since breaking his leg. 14 sacks without any playing time in weeks 1-3. Football Outsiders most efficient pass rusher in the entire NFL in 2011. 6-4 260 pounds of pure muscle with great quickness and plays just as well over the guard as he does outside. Excellent with his hands and turns speed into power with ease. These types of players do not come around often. I would be extremely disappointed if he did not reach 14 sacks next year.
[ Edited by DirtyP on May 22, 2012 at 4:40 PM ]
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