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Analysis of the AJ Jenkins Pick (AJ Is a Range/Speed Specimen)

it's pretty naive to come out and just say stephen hill cant play WR. he can run, he can catch, he can block. isnt that what a wide receiver should do?

you know what a receiver does on a passing play? he runs a route! just because he came from an offense that ran way more than passed the ball, doesnt mean he didnt run any routes. he probably just needs some work to run better routes.
[ Edited by schmons on Apr 30, 2012 at 12:52 PM ]
Originally posted by Joecool:
Not exactly. Most instances, a WR doesn't get a chance to maximize his leap or is required to leap at all. Crabtree's arm length ALWAYS allows him to be that high whereas AJ would be required to leap every time to reach that height and getting to the height of a leap rarely happens.

OK Fine; you're making assumptions about jump maximization and whatnot. You assume a leap at 80% of max and Jenkins loses an inch on Crabtree.
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
What a terrifically reasonable, intelligent approach by you.

Then he should CANX his account and hide under a rock.

Sounds like 'I trust whatever Baalke says" mindlessness.
Originally posted by WillistheWall:
Yeah, Hill is an inferior player. I hear a lot of people feel that Kendall Wright and AJ are similar players though

Not really. Aside from on the field differences, Jenkins runs the 40 1/4 second faster (!), is 2 inches taller, has 2.5 inch bigger arms, and has one inch bigger hands (that's a lot). They're not really similar at all.
Originally posted by schmons:
it's pretty naive to come out and just say stephen hill cant play WR. he can run, he can catch, he can block. isnt that what a wide receiver should do?

you know what a receiver does on a passing play? he runs a route! just because he came from an offense that ran way more than passed the ball, doesnt mean he didnt run any routes. he probably just needs some work to run better routes.

He can run in a straight line really fast

He can catch with his body

He can catch when he's wide-open

He can block on running plays
  • DRnSFw
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 44,759
remember it's not how fast they run at the combine with NO PADS ON!

It's how fast they run in Live Game Action with PADS ON!
Originally posted by DRnSFw:
remember it's not how fast they run at the combine with NO PADS ON!

It's how fast they run in Live Game Action with PADS ON!

I've never understood why they don't run with pads ON
Super interesting. Thanks
Originally posted by nickbradley:
I've never understood why they don't run with pads ON

Me neither. Make WRs line up like they do on the LOS and have them run a 40 yard go. Make CB's line up backwards and pedal for 15yds, flip hips and sprint 25. That would all seem to be a lot more relevant.
Originally posted by ghostrider:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
I've never understood why they don't run with pads ON

Me neither. Make WRs line up like they do on the LOS and have them run a 40 yard go. Make CB's line up backwards and pedal for 15yds, flip hips and sprint 25. That would all seem to be a lot more relevant.
although relevant its the only way to judge every player the same and historically

using split times is more of a proper indicator
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Nope, doesn't matter to the OP.

Truth is, Hill like any WR coming from a non-pro style offense will have a steep learning curve...which is not unique for college WRs. It doesn't mean they can't succeed, it just means they may not contribute as quickly as others who have run the route-tree, can get in and out of breaks quickly and understand the nuances of the pro passing game.

If they have the right mix of size/speed/athleticism, core WR skills, desire and smarts, they will be fine.
demarius thomas had as many receptions in 1 year than hill whole college career

thomas was much more pro ready coming out than hill

hill was just an athlete with huge potential and he has great work ethic

the 49ers wanted a guy who can contribute asap not one who has a higher bust potential who wont contribute for a while
Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
Good job loved the analysis

This
Hey Nick, could you do this analysis and compare Jenkins with recent receivers taken? A la Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin (I am most interested in him as I think he is the closest thing to AJ in the NFL right now), Hakeem Nicks, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Dez Bryant, D. Thomas, Torrey Smith, Mike Wallace, Percy Harvin, Desean Jackson.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Clearly, Trent Baalke concluded that the 49ers lacked elite speed and explosiveness on offense, resulting in the picks of AJ Jenkins at #30 and LaMichael James at #61. James is a consensus home run pick, but its a bit unclear why Jenkins was taken over Stephen Hill, Rueben Randle, Brian Quick, and Alshon Jeffery -- all rated ahead of Jenkins.

So what I did is analyze measurables of the Top 10 WR prospects for height, weight, size, speed, vertical, arm length, and broad jump ability. Its linked below. 'spheroidal range' and 'spheroidal/speed' is designed to measure the "catch radius" of the receiver and speed. Since a lower speed is better, dividing catch range by speed gives you a nice measurable.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmEu1DDN514kdFZoX0QzRlpFYllFNm82MjQtOVl2S2c

The first thing that stands out is that Stephen Hill is perhaps one of greatest physically gifted WR prospects we've seen in years -- at least since the other Georgia Tech WRs. However, there are major issues with his ability to actually play the WR position in the NFL...he's not a very good wide receiver. But when we look outside of Hill, we see something Amazing:

AJ Jenkins has the best vertical:speed ratio in the draft and the best broad:speed ratio in the draft...outside of the freak Hill (who can't play WR). He outscored Floyd, Jeffery, and Blackmon on these measures. In addition, he's a great WR.

His only weak spot is strength and weight, which he plans to address this summer...I THINK WE GOT A STEAL.

Based on the data, AJ Jenkins is significantly underweight for his frame — its backed by the numbers.

I don't want to totally geek out, but you can see how 'filled out' a player is by dividing weight by (height arm length); It'd be best to divide muscle mass by (height arm length), but I don't have that data. ** But what you find if you do divide weight by (height arms) is that Jenkins is unusually undersized. Here is the data for the ratios:

Michael Floyd – 2.04
Alshon Jeffery – 2.00
Brian Quick – 2.00
Stephen Hill – 1.97
Mohamed Sanu – 1.96
Justin Blackmon – 1.96
Kendall Wright – 1.95
Rueben Randle – 1.94
Chris Givens – 1.94
A.J. Jenkins - 1.81

As you can see, Michael Floyd is completely 'filled out' – the guy is stout and physical — he is mature. Jeffery and Quick are mature as well – while guys like Blackmon are average. AJ Jenkins, on the other hand, is two standard deviations away from the mean — he's very very underdeveloped. Getting up to an average ratio of 1.95 for w/(h a) or 2.82 for w/h – you're looking at about 205 pounds or so. I think the dude is 200 lbs at training camp.

So, the 49ers drafted a guy that they figured they could throw in the weight room and turn into a top 10 top 15 talent!
Good stuff
I NEVER understood why people doubted the pick to begin with. Whenever I hear people doubting the pick I just tell them to look at the tape.t has shut up quite a few people already.
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