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Analysis of the AJ Jenkins Pick (AJ Is a Range/Speed Specimen)

nice analysis i don't quite understand the formula in your half spheroidal info.

i'd love to see a comparison of the shuttle and 3 cones between all these guys if you hvae that info...it'll give us a comparison across the board on who is quicker/more agile
Originally posted by nickbradley:
He can't.

Can he run routes? No

Does he lose the ball en route? yes

I am sure you read a ton of mock drafts this year.
Originally posted by Pick6:
"well"... he just had an assumptive ending. "Hill can't play receiver WELL".

Which is an accurate statement if playing WR requires a player to do anything but run straight down the field and catch a ball 2-3 times per game. It really adds to it when that WR's offense is based off of a run option threat... IF he could play WR "well" and IS a 1st round WR the team would have got him more involved somehow.

T.O. was a third round pick. Keyshawn Johnson was the 1st overall pick.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Nice assumption, but what's originally written (and since edited) about Hill is the declaritive "who can't play WR." But even giving the OP the benefit of the doubt, there is no analysis to back that statement up. All we get from the edited version is, "However, there are major issues with his ability to actually play the WR position in the NFL...he's not a very good wide receiver."

Based on what? Things he doesn't do well TODAY? What are these things and why can't they EVER be corrected/coached up? Are Hill's flaws so glaring and uncorrectable that he'll never make it the NFL? If so, why?

See the point? The more I look at Jenkins the more I get excited about the pick, but let's not get so homeristic that we don't even bother to back up our critical statements of other players with a reasonable analysis.

I'll make it simple:

playing WR in an offense where you don't run traditional routes, lose the ball in air, and are usually uncovered by a defender

DOES NOT EQUAL

playing WR in the national football league

That's a laughably weak analysis. Most colleges these days don't run traditional routes, and many WRs lose the ball in the air, uncovered or not..it happens to college players and pros alike. But if that's your analysis, it's not worth going back and forth on this.
Originally posted by iLL49er:
nice analysis i don't quite understand the formula in your half spheroidal info.

i'd love to see a comparison of the shuttle and 3 cones between all these guys if you hvae that info...it'll give us a comparison across the board on who is quicker/more agile

I wanted to use cone data but its missing for most players.

For Spheroidal Range, I took the formula for calculating the volume of a sphere and divided it by two. the radius length = broad + height + arms. The half-pole length is vertical + arms + height

I'm assuming that all players have an equal ability to extend their arms above their head.

I did have hand size included for fingertip catches, but that is already calculated in arm length.

I also looked at hand size vs height to see who has unusually large hands, and AJ is #1, in the top tier of 'big hands vs height' with Sanu and Jeffery. Kendall Wright and Chris Givens have tiny hands.
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
That's a laughably weak analysis. Most colleges these days don't run traditional routes, and many WRs lose the ball in the air, uncovered or not..it happens to college players and pros alike. But if that's your analysis, it's not worth going back and forth on this.

That's a 30-second analysis. To put it in different words, GT WR's do not really play the WR position -- I wouldn't call it wide receiver. It's not even similar to college offense WRs -- those players also have a learning curve.
Interesting analysis, i'll give you that.
FYI,
Crabtree's hands are a quarter inch shorter at 9 1/4 but his arms are 3 inches longer than AJ.

Let's see what AJ does in an NFL game before he begins to take over positions.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
That's a laughably weak analysis. Most colleges these days don't run traditional routes, and many WRs lose the ball in the air, uncovered or not..it happens to college players and pros alike. But if that's your analysis, it's not worth going back and forth on this.

That's a 30-second analysis. To put it in different words, GT WR's do not really play the WR position -- I wouldn't call it wide receiver. It's not even similar to college offense WRs -- those players also have a learning curve.

You do know the WR's who recently came out of GT?
Originally posted by Joecool:
FYI,
Crabtree's hands are a quarter inch shorter at 9 1/4 but his arms are 3 inches longer than AJ.

Let's see what AJ does in an NFL game before he begins to take over positions.

That explained the ones that he dropped when Smith's pass hit him in the face. Takes longer distance to get those long arms up to defend himself from Smith's zippy passes.
Originally posted by Joecool:
FYI,
Crabtree's hands are a quarter inch shorter at 9 1/4 but his arms are 3 inches longer than AJ.

Let's see what AJ does in an NFL game before he begins to take over positions.

Yes, and his vertical is 4.5 inches lower. Being 2 inches taller, that means they get to about the exact same point in the air.
Originally posted by Joecool:
You do know the WR's who recently came out of GT?

Yes. an overdrafted Demaryius Thomas that benefited from following in the Footsteps of one Calvin Johnson.

http://footballoutsiders.com/player/24311/demaryius-thomas

Do you see the devolution here?
  • Pick6
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 625
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Originally posted by Pick6:
Originally posted by DirtyP:
I loved the Jenkins pick, but you make yourself look dumb when you say Hill can't play receiver.

"well"... he just had an assumptive ending. "Hill can't play receiver WELL".

Which is an accurate statement if playing WR requires a player to do anything but run straight down the field and catch a ball 2-3 times per game. It really adds to it when that WR's offense is based off of a run option threat... IF he could play WR "well" and IS a 1st round WR the team would have got him more involved somehow.

Nice assumption, but what's originally written (and since edited) about Hill is the declaritive "who can't play WR." But even giving the OP the benefit of the doubt, there is no analysis to back that statement up. All we get from the edited version is, "However, there are major issues with his ability to actually play the WR position in the NFL...he's not a very good wide receiver."

Based on what? Things he doesn't do well TODAY? What are these things and why can't they EVER be corrected/coached up? Are Hill's flaws so glaring and uncorrectable that he'll never make it the NFL? If so, why?

See the point? The more I look at Jenkins the more I get excited about the pick, but let's not get so homeristic that we don't even bother to back up our critical statements of other players with a reasonable analysis.

I hear what your saying... and I wasn't being a homer or trying to add to the OP's original statement. You're correct he might have meant that he can't play wr, but I assumed he meant that he couldn't play it well.

I'm not saying that Hill can't be coached up, but seriously for as much raw talent as is there how could he not have been used more? I don't follow GT football maybe he ran more than just a go route, but its hard to imagine... when your average per catch is higher than your number of catches that raises concerns to me. Look at Damaryus Thomas and Calvin Johnson's numbers, they both exceeded 1000 yards. There have been several WR that have produced way better numbers in GT's offense than Hill. Could he be good, sure... he has plenty of talent, I only wonder why he hasn't transfered that to production. Saying he didn't produce because of the offense is just an excuse IMO.
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
That's a laughably weak analysis. Most colleges these days don't run traditional routes, and many WRs lose the ball in the air, uncovered or not..it happens to college players and pros alike. But if that's your analysis, it's not worth going back and forth on this.

I'm not nickbradley, but I'll chime in anyways. I have serious reservations about drafting a WR who has only caught 49 passes in his entire college career. The only thing he has proven is that he is big and can fly down the field. Yes his YPC average is incredible and he has Calvin Johnson-esque size and speed. While I wouldn't go so far as to say that he can't play WR, I will say that he hasn't proven he can do much besides be a deep threat in the NFL. He has a lot of work ahead of him, and it would hardly be a shock if he doesn't ever become the type of receiver his physical attributes say he should be. There have been plenty of receivers with off the chart measurable who never develop into anything more than a #3.A guy with his type of skills will always have a place in the NFL, I just personally am skeptical that he'll approach anywhere near his ceiling.

While AJ Jenkins is hardly guaranteed success, he has a much more reliable combination of measurables, college production, and polish that bodes better for NFL success. I feel much more confident about his chances to become a top-20 receiver than I do about Hill.
Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
That's a laughably weak analysis. Most colleges these days don't run traditional routes, and many WRs lose the ball in the air, uncovered or not..it happens to college players and pros alike. But if that's your analysis, it's not worth going back and forth on this.

That's a 30-second analysis. To put it in different words, GT WR's do not really play the WR position -- I wouldn't call it wide receiver. It's not even similar to college offense WRs -- those players also have a learning curve.

You do know the WR's who recently came out of GT?

Nope, doesn't matter to the OP.

Truth is, Hill like any WR coming from a non-pro style offense will have a steep learning curve...which is not unique for college WRs. It doesn't mean they can't succeed, it just means they may not contribute as quickly as others who have run the route-tree, can get in and out of breaks quickly and understand the nuances of the pro passing game.

If they have the right mix of size/speed/athleticism, core WR skills, desire and smarts, they will be fine.