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Does our offense *really* need a vertical threat?

Which ever player will help our abysmal third down percentage is what this team needs. Eli was spectacular on thrid down throughout the playoffs and its why they won the superbowl. That and we have Kyle Williams on the our roster.
Completely agree.

What's lacking is that big target possession WR that can move the chains on a 3rd and 7.

We still don't have that WR (which bothers me) but with all the new talent, perhaps someone like VD or Crabs takes that role while Moss/Manningham go deep.

Not again!!
Yes...which is why Moss and Manningham were signed. They stretch the field, making it much easier for other receivers to operate underneath. Adding Fleener would provide another downfield receiver...IMHO, integrating him into the offense is more important than any WR, because he already knows Harbaugh's offense and would create defensive mis-matches, and more opportunities for Alex to get the ball downfield.
of course they do. that way the defenses wont cheat up on the line and will help in the run game. even if he is old you gotta respect moss going deep.
yes/
we need to pass more.
Alex has always sucked on 3rd down. How many starting qbs in the NFL ( started at least 6 games) over the past two or three seasons have a worse 3rd down conversion rate then Alex?

Hint: not many.

Who had the better 3rd down conversion rate even though they had the same weapons, coaches wtc. Shaun Hill or Alex Smith?

Hint: It wasn't Alex.
Originally posted by nflguy49:
Alex has always sucked on 3rd down. How many starting qbs in the NFL ( started at least 6 games) over the past two or three seasons have a worse 3rd down conversion rate then Alex?

Hint: not many.

Who had the better 3rd down conversion rate even though they had the same weapons, coaches wtc. Shaun Hill or Alex Smith?

Hint: It wasn't Alex.

Link or you are lying
  • sfout
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 6,380
[ Edited by sfout on Apr 16, 2012 at 5:06 PM ]
We have plenty of verticle threats now.

Do you guys think with Ginn, VD, Moss, Delanie, Crabs, Manningham and hell, even KW together we make up one of the fastest receiving core in the league?

I do.

The eagles and cowboys maybe. Packers are up there.

But you have to consider VD and Delanie vs. other teams' TEs, when talking about pure speed alone.
[ Edited by Young2Rice on Apr 16, 2012 at 6:58 PM ]
Originally posted by valrod33:
Link or you are lying

http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2012/04/inside-the-49ers/alex-smiths-problems-on-third-down/


Alex Smith's problems on third down Posted on April 2, 2012 by Grant Cohn
Take this for what it's worth – Alex Smith has always been bad on third down.

Before I explain, let me define my terms. "Average" on third down would be a 38 percent conversion success rate and five conversions per game.

In 2006, Smith's first full season starting, the Niners offense converted 34.45 percent of third downs and averaged 4.5 third-down conversions per game. Both figures ranked 26th in the NFL.

In 2009 Smith started ten games, and over that stretch the Niners offense converted a paltry 30.15 percent of third downs and averaged just 4.1 third-down conversions per game. Both figures ranked 29th.

In 2010 Smith started nine games and rebounded to his 2006 form – 34.09 percent third-down conversion rate, 4.6 third-down conversions per game, both ranking 25th.

Last season, Smith's third-down play tanked inexplicably. He converted a mind-bogglingly low 28.11 percent of third downs and averaged 3.89 third-down conversions per game, ranking 31st. For reference, Tim Tebow averaged 3.92 third-down conversions per game in 2011.

Smith has historically converted roughly four third downs per game. That's bad, but it's not a killer – not on this great Niners team. Smith converted four third downs against the Saints in the playoffs and won.

Smith's main problem on third down is his propensity to get shut out entirely. Over his last 26 starts, he's converted two or fewer third downs nine times.

Does Smith deserve all the blame? No. Offensive linemen have to block and wide receivers have to get open and catch the ball, and Smith hasn't had the best offensive line or wide receivers over the years.

Maybe Greg Roman should take the blame for Smith getting outplayed by Tebow on third down last season. After all, Roman routinely called ultra-ultra-conservative plays with leads or near field goal range.

Maybe it's not Smith's fault. I just can't help but notice that while his interception rate and red zone effectiveness have fluctuated over the years, for whatever reason his third down results have always been bad.

On the other hand, Joe Flacco, who some might rank in the same QB tier as Smith, has always had good results on third down.

In 2008, Flacco converted 39.26 percent. In 2009, 42.8 percent. In 2010, 40.17 percent. And in 2011, 41.98 percent.

Mark Sanchez had his worst season ever on third down in '11, converting 34.74, a higher rate than Smith has ever produced. Sanchez also converted 40.43 percent in 2010.

Matt Ryan converted 43.46 percent in 2011 and 46 percent in 2010.

Obviously third down conversions aren't everything. What do you make of Smith's bad third-down numbers?

Update: Here are more in-depth 2011 third-down stats for Smith, via the Washington Post, courtesy of our commenter BigP:

"#12 in NFC on 3rd down passing conversions, #23 overall. #16 in NFC on 3rd and <3 yards, #32 overall. #11 in NFC on 3rd and 3-7 yards, #23 overall. #11 in NFC on 3rd and 8+ yards, #20 overall. #12 in % First Downs/Attempt, #20 overall."

Update No. 2: For another point of comparison, Shaun Hill converted 40.17 percent of his third downs as a Niner from 2007 to 2009.
^^ that includes running to

someone already debunked that by putting pure passing stats on 3rd dwon which alex rates like i think it was 20

not great but again considering the talent at WR around him compared to last year it should improve
#1 Link please

#2 You think being ranked in the 20's out of 32 starters is an arguement in Alex's favor? lulz
Originally posted by nflguy49:
http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2012/04/inside-the-49ers/alex-smiths-problems-on-third-down/


Alex Smith's problems on third down Posted on April 2, 2012 by Grant Cohn
Take this for what it's worth – Alex Smith has always been bad on third down.

Before I explain, let me define my terms. "Average" on third down would be a 38 percent conversion success rate and five conversions per game.

In 2006, Smith's first full season starting, the Niners offense converted 34.45 percent of third downs and averaged 4.5 third-down conversions per game. Both figures ranked 26th in the NFL.

In 2009 Smith started ten games, and over that stretch the Niners offense converted a paltry 30.15 percent of third downs and averaged just 4.1 third-down conversions per game. Both figures ranked 29th.

In 2010 Smith started nine games and rebounded to his 2006 form – 34.09 percent third-down conversion rate, 4.6 third-down conversions per game, both ranking 25th.

Last season, Smith's third-down play tanked inexplicably. He converted a mind-bogglingly low 28.11 percent of third downs and averaged 3.89 third-down conversions per game, ranking 31st. For reference, Tim Tebow averaged 3.92 third-down conversions per game in 2011.

Smith has historically converted roughly four third downs per game. That's bad, but it's not a killer – not on this great Niners team. Smith converted four third downs against the Saints in the playoffs and won.

Smith's main problem on third down is his propensity to get shut out entirely. Over his last 26 starts, he's converted two or fewer third downs nine times.

Does Smith deserve all the blame? No. Offensive linemen have to block and wide receivers have to get open and catch the ball, and Smith hasn't had the best offensive line or wide receivers over the years.

Maybe Greg Roman should take the blame for Smith getting outplayed by Tebow on third down last season. After all, Roman routinely called ultra-ultra-conservative plays with leads or near field goal range.

Maybe it's not Smith's fault. I just can't help but notice that while his interception rate and red zone effectiveness have fluctuated over the years, for whatever reason his third down results have always been bad.

On the other hand, Joe Flacco, who some might rank in the same QB tier as Smith, has always had good results on third down.

In 2008, Flacco converted 39.26 percent. In 2009, 42.8 percent. In 2010, 40.17 percent. And in 2011, 41.98 percent.

Mark Sanchez had his worst season ever on third down in '11, converting 34.74, a higher rate than Smith has ever produced. Sanchez also converted 40.43 percent in 2010.

Matt Ryan converted 43.46 percent in 2011 and 46 percent in 2010.

Obviously third down conversions aren't everything. What do you make of Smith's bad third-down numbers?

Update: Here are more in-depth 2011 third-down stats for Smith, via the Washington Post, courtesy of our commenter BigP:

"#12 in NFC on 3rd down passing conversions, #23 overall. #16 in NFC on 3rd and <3 yards, #32 overall. #11 in NFC on 3rd and 3-7 yards, #23 overall. #11 in NFC on 3rd and 8+ yards, #20 overall. #12 in % First Downs/Attempt, #20 overall."

Update No. 2: For another point of comparison, Shaun Hill converted 40.17 percent of his third downs as a Niner from 2007 to 2009.



If you read the comments:

Grant Cohn says: April 2, 2012 at 12:31 pm
This takes into account all 49er third downs when Alex Smith was on the field in games he started.

That means, all those times we called a run on 3rd down, it factored into Smith's stats.