The Total Inability of 49er Fans to Understand Receiver Performance

Originally posted by nickbradley:
So, here's the narrative we hear on webzone incessantly:
- Crabtree will never be a #1
- Manningham is overrated
- Moss is Washed up
- Williams needs to be cut (for some reason)
- Delanie Walker is Awesome! No reason to draft Coby Fleener

Well, I'm here to tell you that all of those are untrue with the exception of the Moss one - because I have no idea how much he has left in the tank. I will rely on Footballoutsiders.com to assess the performance of our receivers. http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

Crabtree - Crabtree improved dramatically from 2010 to 2011, after an even bigger improvement from 2009 to 2010. Extrapolating the trend, he should be a top 15 WR in 2012. On par with a Dez Bryant or something like that. method: I did a curve fit for 2009/10/11 stats and extrapolated the trend. Now, we can all throw stones at this extrapolation, but it is clear that Crabtree has the stuff to be a #1 and has improved a ton every year.

Manningham - Is everyone aware that Manningham was the 16th Best WR in 2010? And that he caught 65% of passes thrown his direction that year? And that he only caught 51% of targeted passes in 2011? He was hurt all year, and Cruz got the better routes to run. Manningham may end up being the steal of Free Agency.

Williams - On a per-play basis, Williams performed as well as Myles Austin and Torrey Smith. That's borderline #1 performance, for a little guy out of the slot that's 23 years old!

Moss - total wild card in 2012

Walker - Everyone thinks Walker is dominant, but it is a *Myth*. DVOA of -7% in 2011, 0.3% in 2010, and a horrid -20% in 2009. Totally replaceable, and not on par with other teams that run 2 TEs. You replace him with Coby Fleener (bump walker to 3rd TE), and productivity shoots up!

** With the exception of Moss, Manningham is the "old man" of the receiver corps at the ripe old age of 25!

Thoughts?

Are completely with this. Harbaugh engineered this offense to focus on everything but the WR this year. Why? Because it was our weakest position Got worse when Edwards went down and never really came back. Got even worse when Morgan went down. We had Crabtree and even though he may only be a two he was covered like a 1 so that left us with zero threat there. with the additions of Moss (deep) and Manningham (short to mid-range) we have legit receivers now.

I understand what a receiver is! I talk into it everyday on the phone.

Originally posted by flow:
You did not refute a single point I made, troll, you just repeated what I said in a sarcastic tone. You lost this argument so badly it's pathetic.

Have fun staring at these pictures of Alex hitting Vernon between two defenders in the playoffs while I ride Jerry Rice's jock (which I'm proud to do, by the way):

You're right - if there are two defenders that manage to make the same picture as the receiver, it must be double coverage! Genius!

Any time you see a linebacker stretching out his hand to try to knock down a ball thrown over the top of him while he's standing in his zone, this means it was double coverage, yo.

And when a safety comes all the way over from the other side of the field to converge on a tight end who smoked his man deep, it also is double coverage, yo.

Man, I thought I had refuted some stuff, but I guess not. Maybe we should get the ultimate arbiters of right and wrong, Eric Mangini and Jerry Rice, to decide.

lulz

Originally posted by flow:

Originally posted by DerekJeterForGG:

You did not refute a single point I made, troll, you just repeated what I said in a sarcastic tone. You lost this argument so badly it's pathetic.

Have fun staring at these pictures of Alex hitting Vernon between two defenders in the playoffs while I ride Jerry Rice's jock (which I'm proud to do, by the way):

not a single one?

Originally posted by pd24:

Originally posted by nickbradley:

So, here's the narrative we hear on webzone incessantly:
- Crabtree will never be a #1
- Manningham is overrated
- Moss is Washed up
- Williams needs to be cut (for some reason)
- Delanie Walker is Awesome! No reason to draft Coby Fleener

Well, I'm here to tell you that all of those are untrue with the exception of the Moss one - because I have no idea how much he has left in the tank. I will rely on Footballoutsiders.com to assess the performance of our receivers. http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

Crabtree - Crabtree improved dramatically from 2010 to 2011, after an even bigger improvement from 2009 to 2010. Extrapolating the trend, he should be a top 15 WR in 2012. On par with a Dez Bryant or something like that. method: I did a curve fit for 2009/10/11 stats and extrapolated the trend. Now, we can all throw stones at this extrapolation, but it is clear that Crabtree has the stuff to be a #1 and has improved a ton every year.

Manningham - Is everyone aware that Manningham was the 16th Best WR in 2010? And that he caught 65% of passes thrown his direction that year? And that he only caught 51% of targeted passes in 2011? He was hurt all year, and Cruz got the better routes to run. Manningham may end up being the steal of Free Agency.

Williams - On a per-play basis, Williams performed as well as Myles Austin and Torrey Smith. That's borderline #1 performance, for a little guy out of the slot that's 23 years old!

Moss - total wild card in 2012

Walker - Everyone thinks Walker is dominant, but it is a *Myth*. DVOA of -7% in 2011, 0.3% in 2010, and a horrid -20% in 2009. Totally replaceable, and not on par with other teams that run 2 TEs. You replace him with Coby Fleener (bump walker to 3rd TE), and productivity shoots up!

** With the exception of Moss, Manningham is the "old man" of the receiver corps at the ripe old age of 25!

Thoughts?

I agree with the Fleener thing. He would be a better target than Walker. Crabtree is solid, just needs to go through a whole off season and pre season and I think that will help him get off to a better start. Manningham will be a steal, he knows how to get open and can get deep. Im fine with Williams as long as he doesn't return kicks. Moss is a wildcard.

I love how, according to The Zone, the 49ers get the steal of free agency and/or the draft every year. I'm not saying Manningham can't or won't be, just saying that every year we have the player that can be that guy. LOL

Originally posted by 49erRider:

I love how, according to The Zone, the 49ers get the steal of free agency and/or the draft every year. I'm not saying Manningham can't or won't be, just saying that every year we have the player that can be that guy. LOL

Fans. Check out the meaning. If you want a cold, emotionless assessment with no bias, you might like to look elsewhere. Whilst staying here for the fun stuff, obviously.

Originally posted by 49erRider:

I love how, according to The Zone, the 49ers get the steal of free agency and/or the draft every year. I'm not saying Manningham can't or won't be, just saying that every year we have the player that can be that guy. LOL

That happens on every forum for every team. Not really that shocking.

Originally posted by 1swift:

Originally posted by flow:

Originally posted by DerekJeterForGG:

You did not refute a single point I made, troll, you just repeated what I said in a sarcastic tone. You lost this argument so badly it's pathetic.

Have fun staring at these pictures of Alex hitting Vernon between two defenders in the playoffs while I ride Jerry Rice's jock (which I'm proud to do, by the way):

not a single one?

Nope.

Just four examples:

1. DerekJeterForGG exaggerates: my exact words were I can't wait for Crabtree to be "traded/released." His immediate response was "oh Crabtree needs to be given the death penalty, huh?"
2. His facts are wrong: he states that Anquan Boldin only does well with great QBs, but Boldin still put up huge numbers with McCown and Leinart! He stated a similar thing about Andre Johnson, but Johnson still did well (1142 yards in 2004, 1147 yards in 2006) with David Carr! He tried the same thing with Santana Moss, but Moss still did well (1044 yards in 2008) with Jason Campbell!
3. He lacks common sense: he tries to argue that it was okay for Crabtree to disrespect Smith at Camp Alex because player-run camps are useless/dangerous. If that's the case, then why did Crabtree show up to the camp in the first place? He was not obligated to do so. Don't come if it's so "useless."
4. He compared the 49ers' initial contract offer to Crabtree to minimum wage. It was only an offer of approximately five years and $20 million, with a reported $16 million guaranteed... WITHOUT EVER PLAYING A DOWN IN THE NFL. But yeah, it's the same as minimum wage.

I could go on and on for each of DerekJeterForGG's asinine "arguments," but it would be a fruitless exercise. You can't fix stupid. I made my points clear in my earlier posts and I'm not wasting any more time with a guy who defends Deion Sanders over Jerry Rice.

Originally posted by 49erRider:
I love how, according to The Zone, the 49ers get the steal of free agency and/or the draft every year. I'm not saying Manningham can't or won't be, just saying that every year we have the player that can be that guy. LOL

Most fans have favorite players on other team and when the 9ers sign them they get excited. Josh Johnson is an example of this as he played well for Harbaugh and JH has raved about him...so...what's not to like if they get someone they think will help? I don't particularly get excited by Manningham but some posters are really happy with the signing...I hope they are right.

You would have a hard time finding a GM who has done a better job of signing important FAs and drafting than Baalke has the past two years. If his draft is anywhere near as successful this year the team will be incredibly strong for the long haul. Then it will be a matter of keeping our own FAs and picking up replacements...easier when you have a strong base.

Originally posted by flow:

Nope.

Just four examples:

1. DerekJeterForGG exaggerates: my exact words were I can't wait for Crabtree to be "traded/released." His immediate response was "oh Crabtree needs to be given the death penalty, huh?"

Nope, your exact words were, "he's a hyper-sensitive, overrated, pompous, spoiled, sack of gar-BAGE."

1. His facts are wrong: he states that Anquan Boldin only does well with great QBs, but Boldin still put up huge numbers with McCown and Leinart! He stated a similar thing about Andre Johnson, but Johnson still did well (1142 yards in 2004, 1147 yards in 2006) with David Carr! He tried the same thing with Santana Moss, but Moss still did well (1044 yards in 2008) with Jason Campbell!

And yet Boldin hasn't even managed to reach 1,000 yards the past two years in Baltimore with Flacco. Andre Johnson merely managed 688 yards in 13 games with David Carr in 2005. Santana Moss, in 2006, totaled just 790 yards in 14 games. In 2007, he totaled just 808 yards in 14 games. In 2009, just 902 yards. Last year, just 584 in 14 games.

If Crabtree had played several full seasons and didn't manage to scrape together the "way under their talent level, but still respectable" numbers, you could attempt this comparison (still wouldn't be fair, as Troy Smith is worse than the quarterbacks the aforementioned receivers played with). But he hasn't. You used a 5 game sample with Troy Smith to attempt to prove your point.

Marvin Harrison's first 3 seasons:

836 yards, 8 touchdowns
866 yards, 6 touchdowns
776 yards, 7 touchdowns (12 games)

Michael Crabtree's first 3 seasons:

625 yards, 2 touchdowns (11 games)
741 yards, 6 touchdowns
874 yards, 4 touchdowns

1. He lacks common sense: he tries to argue that it was okay for Crabtree to disrespect Smith at Camp Alex because player-run camps are useless/dangerous. If that's the case, then why did Crabtree show up to the camp in the first place? He was not obligated to do so. Don't come if it's so "useless."

Maybe Crabtree showed up to support his teammates, but he didn't participate because of his foot problems. Oh crap...that almost sounds like a positive thing.

1. He compared the 49ers' initial contract offer to Crabtree to minimum wage. It was only an offer of approximately five years and $20 million, with a reported $16 million guaranteed... WITHOUT EVER PLAYING A DOWN IN THE NFL. But yeah, it's the same as minimum wage.

The specific monetary figures have nothing to do with the point I'm making. You were arguing under the premise that a player shouldn't have the right to hold out because "he hasn't even played a down in the NFL." Well, if that's the case, then the player has no right to make any demands whatsoever, right? If the team wants him to play for insultingly little money, he should have no objections, because he hasn't done anything, right?

I'm sure if he held out, he and his agent had a very good reason.

I could go on and on for each of DerekJeterForGG's asinine "arguments," but it would be a fruitless exercise. You can't fix stupid. I made my points clear in my earlier posts and I'm not wasting any more time with a guy who defends Deion Sanders over Jerry Rice.

I wonder if the mods warned this poster about insults. I'm guessing the answer is, "no."

Originally posted by nickbradley:

So, here's the narrative we hear on webzone incessantly:
- Crabtree will never be a #1
- Manningham is overrated
- Moss is Washed up
- Williams needs to be cut (for some reason)
- Delanie Walker is Awesome! No reason to draft Coby Fleener

Well, I'm here to tell you that all of those are untrue with the exception of the Moss one - because I have no idea how much he has left in the tank. I will rely on Footballoutsiders.com to assess the performance of our receivers. http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

Crabtree - Crabtree improved dramatically from 2010 to 2011, after an even bigger improvement from 2009 to 2010. Extrapolating the trend, he should be a top 15 WR in 2012. On par with a Dez Bryant or something like that. method: I did a curve fit for 2009/10/11 stats and extrapolated the trend. Now, we can all throw stones at this extrapolation, but it is clear that Crabtree has the stuff to be a #1 and has improved a ton every year.

Manningham - Is everyone aware that Manningham was the 16th Best WR in 2010? And that he caught 65% of passes thrown his direction that year? And that he only caught 51% of targeted passes in 2011? He was hurt all year, and Cruz got the better routes to run. Manningham may end up being the steal of Free Agency.

Williams - On a per-play basis, Williams performed as well as Myles Austin and Torrey Smith. That's borderline #1 performance, for a little guy out of the slot that's 23 years old!

Moss - total wild card in 2012

Walker - Everyone thinks Walker is dominant, but it is a *Myth*. DVOA of -7% in 2011, 0.3% in 2010, and a horrid -20% in 2009. Totally replaceable, and not on par with other teams that run 2 TEs. You replace him with Coby Fleener (bump walker to 3rd TE), and productivity shoots up!

** With the exception of Moss, Manningham is the "old man" of the receiver corps at the ripe old age of 25!

Thoughts?

Stats might predict one thing, but doing it is another. You csnt expect crabtree to improve by the same rate every year. Hes going to top out at some point, and maybe he has already. Just by watching him play i can tell he doesnt have the ability to be a number 1. Hes slow, hes a sloppy route runner, he alligator arms passes that involve contact, and he loses focus and drops easy catches. He "just ok" at most everything, but really good at nothing. If he drops the diva attitude and blame game, and works super hard? Maybe a good 2. football outsiders stats might say hes going to be great, but he doesnt pass the eye test.

Originally posted by DerekJeterForGG:

Originally posted by flow:

Nope.

Just four examples:

1. DerekJeterForGG exaggerates: my exact words were I can't wait for Crabtree to be "traded/released." His immediate response was "oh Crabtree needs to be given the death penalty, huh?"

Nope, your exact words were, "he's a hyper-sensitive, overrated, pompous, spoiled, sack of gar-BAGE."

1. His facts are wrong: he states that Anquan Boldin only does well with great QBs, but Boldin still put up huge numbers with McCown and Leinart! He stated a similar thing about Andre Johnson, but Johnson still did well (1142 yards in 2004, 1147 yards in 2006) with David Carr! He tried the same thing with Santana Moss, but Moss still did well (1044 yards in 2008) with Jason Campbell!

And yet Boldin hasn't even managed to reach 1,000 yards the past two years in Baltimore with Flacco. Andre Johnson merely managed 688 yards in 13 games with David Carr in 2005. Santana Moss, in 2006, totaled just 790 yards in 14 games. In 2007, he totaled just 808 yards in 14 games. In 2009, just 902 yards. Last year, just 584 in 14 games.

If Crabtree had played several full seasons and didn't manage to scrape together the "way under their talent level, but still respectable" numbers, you could attempt this comparison (still wouldn't be fair, as Troy Smith is worse than the quarterbacks the aforementioned receivers played with). But he hasn't. You used a 5 game sample with Troy Smith to attempt to prove your point.

Marvin Harrison's first 3 seasons:

836 yards, 8 touchdowns
866 yards, 6 touchdowns
776 yards, 7 touchdowns (12 games)

Michael Crabtree's first 3 seasons:

625 yards, 2 touchdowns (11 games)
741 yards, 6 touchdowns
874 yards, 4 touchdowns

1. He lacks common sense: he tries to argue that it was okay for Crabtree to disrespect Smith at Camp Alex because player-run camps are useless/dangerous. If that's the case, then why did Crabtree show up to the camp in the first place? He was not obligated to do so. Don't come if it's so "useless."

Maybe Crabtree showed up to support his teammates, but he didn't participate because of his foot problems. Oh crap...that almost sounds like a positive thing.

1. He compared the 49ers' initial contract offer to Crabtree to minimum wage. It was only an offer of approximately five years and $20 million, with a reported $16 million guaranteed... WITHOUT EVER PLAYING A DOWN IN THE NFL. But yeah, it's the same as minimum wage.

The specific monetary figures have nothing to do with the point I'm making. You were arguing under the premise that a player shouldn't have the right to hold out because "he hasn't even played a down in the NFL." Well, if that's the case, then the player has no right to make any demands whatsoever, right? If the team wants him to play for insultingly little money, he should have no objections, because he hasn't done anything, right?

I'm sure if he held out, he and his agent had a very good reason.

I could go on and on for each of DerekJeterForGG's asinine "arguments," but it would be a fruitless exercise. You can't fix stupid. I made my points clear in my earlier posts and I'm not wasting any more time with a guy who defends Deion Sanders over Jerry Rice.

I wonder if the mods warned this poster about insults. I'm guessing the answer is, "no."

So now you're whining to the mods? It's your own fault you got slaughtered in this argument, don't ask them for help.

You brought up Anquan Boldin, Andre Johnson, and Santana Moss as examples of WRs who only do well with great QBs. I showed stats that completely disproved your argument. I dare you to prove to me that any of the following is false:

Originally posted by flow:

Boldin still put up huge numbers with McCown and Leinart! ... Johnson still did well (1142 yards in 2004, 1147 yards in 2006) with David Carr! ... Moss still did well (1044 yards in 2008) with Jason Campbell!

^ If you don't want those stats brought up, don't bring up their names in the first place.

Originally posted by DerekJeterForGG:

Maybe Crabtree showed up to support his teammates, but he didn't participate because of his foot problems. Oh crap...that almost sounds like a positive thing.

Ugh. Again, how does showing up, not participating, and acting like you don't know who the QB is supporting your teammates? You and I have very different ideas of support. I suppose when I dismantle everything you post on this message board, I'm supporting you, huh?

Originally posted by DerekJeterForGG:

The specific monetary figures have nothing to do with the point I'm making.

Actually it does, since "minimum wage" was the hyperbole you tried to use in your pathetic argument. You literally compared the 49ers' initial contract offer to "minimum wage." In fact, if you bothered to do any research at all, you would realize that the 49ers offer was incredibly fair and appropriate for the slot at which Crabdouche was drafted.

Crabdouche's argument was that he should have been drafted higher, so he should have been paid more. That makes sense, right? I mean, the 1998 Minnesota Vikings should have went to the Super Bowl, right? Heck, let's say they would have beaten the Broncos, too, right? Let's fit them for Super Bowl rings! Field trip to Tiffany's everyone!

Originally posted by DerekJeterForGG:

You were arguing under the premise that a player shouldn't have the right to hold out because "he hasn't even played a down in the NFL." Well, if that's the case, then the player has no right to make any demands whatsoever, right? If the team wants him to play for insultingly little money, he should have no objections, because he hasn't done anything, right?

There was nothing "insulting" about the 49ers' initial offer to Crabtree. The facts are:

1. The old rookie payment system was massively inflated to begin with; so much so that both the league and the union agreed that it needed to be scaled down. That was actually the only major issue the two sides immediately agreed upon.
2. Michael Crabtree's argument was based on where he thought he should have been drafted. Again, like I mentioned above, that's an irrational and nonsensical argument... the kind you routinely make.
3. Crabtree didn't participate in the combine or any exhibition game EVER because of a "foot issue." This pathetic excuse has been going on for YEARS. That adds further fuel to his reputation of being a DIVA. Other players have been through much worse and continue to work. But Crabdouchediva doesn't.
4. Vernon Davis even had to call this m*thaf*cka out, because he's such an unprofessional little b*tch. Vernon had to be separated from Crabtree, that's how much he pissed him--and many members of the team--off. But you don't even care about what Jerry Rice thinks, so you definitely don't care about what Vernon thinks. He's only, like, a really good player, dude.

Crabtree was seen laughing at the Raiders' selection of Heyward-Bey on draft day, which is really a douchy thing to do when you had yet to do squat in the NFL yourself. But that's why I call him Crabdouche. And that's why you defend him incessantly.

You still haven't shown me where I said I wanted Crabtree to die. Show me. Show me a quote. C'mon. "He's a hyper-sensitive, overrated, pompous, spoiled, sack of gar-BAGE" does not mention death anywhere in it.

In short, you haven't disproved anything I said, you bring up "facts" that I easily use against you, and you whine to the mods. You're trolling. Check yoself.

Originally posted by nickbradley:
But walker isn't good, it's a myth. bear pascoe is better!

Walker is a TE. His duty is to block then catch. He is underated by teams as a wr that is his value as they look for the niners to target VD. Not saying he is good, but we are playing with the parts we are given and are familiar with. Nate will be healthy and after this year, Reuland may take Walkers place if he puts on some meat and betters his blocking. This will be an offensive draft. Guard, TE, WR and RB.

Flow and DerekJeter

OK regardless of who is to blame the tone of this exchange has reached too high a temperature. The team will just have to make their decisions themselves.

This exchange is now finished. Please do not try to continue your argument in other threads.

Thank you.