The Total Inability of 49er Fans to Understand Receiver Performance | Page 11

nickbradley · 2012-03-21T10:52:53-07:00

So, here's the narrative we hear on webzone incessantly: - Crabtree will never be a #1 - Manningham is overrated - Moss is Washed up - Williams needs to be cut (for some reason) - Delanie Walker is Awesome! No reason to draft Coby Fleener Well, I'm here to tell you that all of those are untrue with the exception of the Moss one - because I have no idea how much he has left in the tank. I will rely on Footballoutsiders.com to assess the performance of our receivers. http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr Crabtree - Crabtree improved dramatically from 2010 to 2011, after an even bigger improvement from 2009 to 2010. Extrapolating the trend, he should be a top 15 WR in 2012. On par with a Dez Bryant or something like that. method: I did a curve fit for 2009/10/11 stats and extrapolated the trend. Now, we can all throw stones at this extrapolation, but it is clear that Crabtree has the stuff to be a #1 and has improved a ton every year. Manningham - Is everyone aware that Manningham was the 16th Best WR in 2010? And that he caught 65% of passes thrown his direction that year? And that he only caught 51% of targeted passes in 2011? He was hurt all year, and Cruz got the better routes to run. Manningham may end up being the steal of Free Agency. Williams - On a per-play basis, Williams performed as well as Myles Austin and Torrey Smith. That's borderline #1 performance, for a little guy out of the slot that's 23 years old! Moss - total wild card in 2012 Walker - Everyone thinks Walker is dominant, but it is a *Myth*. DVOA of -7% in 2011, 0.3% in 2010, and a horrid -20% in 2009. Totally replaceable, and not on par with other teams that run 2 TEs. You replace him with Coby Fleener (bump walker to 3rd TE), and productivity shoots up! ** With the exception of Moss, Manningham is the "old man" of the receiver corps at the ripe old age of 25! Thoughts?

Mar 21, 2012 at 3:22 PM

#151

buck
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Posts: 13,137

If we have an option of picking Kendall Wright, Stephen Hill, or Coby Fleener in the first, I would go with one of the receivers.

I think that Wright will be a better receiver than Kyle Williams, and would be our fourth wide receiver by the start of the season.

Stephen Hill would almost certainly take longer to develop, but he has good hands, size, and speed.

I would then make a serious attempt to move up in the second to draft Fleener. Fleener would be our second tight end; better than Walker.

If Baalke and Harbaugh decide to take Fleener in the first, I will not complain.

[ Edited by buck on Mar 21, 2012 at 3:25 PM ]

Mar 21, 2012 at 3:25 PM

#152

SundayTicket
Member
Posts: 5,316

nickbradley must feel like its him vs the world in this thread lol

Mar 21, 2012 at 3:31 PM

#153

LoneWolf
Veteran
Posts: 7,064

SundayTicket

That's highly doubtful now that Phoenix has arrived he has all the support he needs lol.

Mar 21, 2012 at 3:33 PM

#154

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by nickbradley:
Yeah, this is a big debate (BPA) on the Draft boards. But we cannot draft yet another offensive lineman in the first two rounds, that would be a huge overinvestment there and, quite frankly, wasteful and unprecedented. Here's why we take Fleener:

1. We're loaded at corner
2. Drafting for depth on the DL is important, but the value isn't there
3. A rookie WR is unlikely to suit up for the 49ers in 2012.
4. Harbaugh runs 2 TE sets ALL THE TIME, sometimes going 3 TE. We need a solid 2nd TE to pair with VD.

Thank you! We do not run a spread...how often do we even use three WR's?

Mar 21, 2012 at 3:33 PM

#155

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by Howlett49:
Answer this nickbradley

In 2011, Kyle Williams was an explosive 23 year old slot receiver who wasn't integrated into the offense until Week 11. He'll get better. How many years has welker been playing?

Mar 21, 2012 at 3:34 PM

#156

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by LoneWolf:
Actually nick kronik hit the nail on the head, this is pretty much a draft fleener campaign. It does promote the receivers we have and there awesomeness, and singles out a tight end just to show he can be replaced by fleener in the draft. Pretty much the same way Phoenixs thread about walker did also. Now if fleener truly is a jimmy graham clone, I'm all for moving walker to a situational te, but not in favor of cutting him. If you base all of your speculation (and yes all it is is speculation) off of stats its still a 50/50 chance you end up dissapionted because stats only reflect on past perfomance and there is no telling what they do in the future.

No, it's not. Its a recognition that if there is any whole in our receiving corps, it is at TE#2

[ Edited by nickbradley on Mar 21, 2012 at 3:34 PM ]

Mar 21, 2012 at 3:36 PM

#157

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by NCommand:
Thank you! We do not run a spread...how often do we even use three WR's?

No! We need to draft a receiver in the first round that won't see the field until 2014.

Mar 21, 2012 at 3:36 PM

#158

Marvin49
Hall of Fame
Posts: 16,506

Originally posted by Howlett49:

Originally posted by Marvin49:
Hrmmm....those last 2 videos look familiar......

Did you make those Marvin? I've seen your vids. They're good!

Yup. Those are mine. I'm just a noob at it.

Mar 21, 2012 at 3:37 PM

#159

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by buck:

If we have an option of picking Kendall Wright, Stephen Hill, or Coby Fleener in the first, I would go with one of the receivers.

I think that Wright will be a better receiver than Kyle Williams, and would be our fourth wide receiver by the start of the season.

Stephen Hill would almost certainly take longer to develop, but he has good hands, size, and speed.

I would then make a serious attempt to move up in the second to draft Fleener. Fleener would be our second tight end; better than Walker.

If Baalke and Harbaugh decide to take Fleener in the first, I will not complain.

The chances of Fleener lasting past the Colts and Andrew Luck at #33 are 0%.

Mar 21, 2012 at 3:42 PM

#160

rk1642
Veteran
Posts: 1,324

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
The thing that bugs me is all the people who think that a team HAS to have 3 WR's out there, a 2 TE set works just as well, if not better if you have two big guys who can run and catch like WR's but also can block their asses off and make plays all over the field.

You could have fun and put out lineups like WR#1 Crabtree, WR#2 Manningham TE#1VD, TE#Fleener with Gore in the backfield. Now it might be a running play with the tight ends staying in to block, or VD and Manningham might be going while Crabtre and Fleener are going across the middle of the field and Gore as a blocker/additional receiver out of the backfield. That's tough for any team to defend, no matter how you slice it.

The most important justification for Fleener is to look at who's playing QB. If its Manning or Brees out there, then I agree, Fleener is a luxury. The quarterback is Alex Smith, he gets flustered at times, throws the ball high, is very conservative, needs a big window, so give him a huge target who can go up and make the plays happen.

Now as I said before, if Hill is there, then it becomes a tough decision because Hill can do a lot of these same things, even if he's a lot more raw, he's also a very good blocker but if he's not, to me, Fleener is the guy who would have the biggest immediate and most profound impact on this offense of anyone they could draft this year.

Your most important justification doesn't make any sense.

Great qb's have a great 2 TE set and it works (not a luxury) They use it as a weapon not as a luxury.

Alex has a great 2 TE set cause he sucks? Comon man. Alex was spot on with VD last year..

Mar 21, 2012 at 3:42 PM

#161

TalkinBoutWILLIS
Veteran
Posts: 467

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Manningham - Is everyone aware that Manningham was the 16th Best WR in 2010? And that he caught 65% of passes thrown his direction that year? And that he only caught 51% of targeted passes in 2011? He was hurt all year, and Cruz got the better routes to run. Manningham may end up being the steal of Free Agency.

Thoughts?

I thought Eddie royal was the steal of free agency?

Mar 21, 2012 at 3:43 PM

#162

valrod33
Hall of Small
Posts: 138,120

Originally posted by TalkinBoutWILLIS:

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Manningham - Is everyone aware that Manningham was the 16th Best WR in 2010? And that he caught 65% of passes thrown his direction that year? And that he only caught 51% of targeted passes in 2011? He was hurt all year, and Cruz got the better routes to run. Manningham may end up being the steal of Free Agency.

Thoughts?

I thought Eddie royal was the steal of free agency?

Mar 21, 2012 at 3:43 PM

#163

NickSh49
Veteran
Posts: 7,939

Fleener is the new Trevor Laws, apparently...

Mar 21, 2012 at 3:52 PM

#164

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by TalkinBoutWILLIS:
I thought Eddie royal was the steal of free agency?

Somebody else signed him!

Mar 21, 2012 at 3:55 PM

#165

buck
Veteran
Posts: 13,137

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by buck:

If we have an option of picking Kendall Wright, Stephen Hill, or Coby Fleener in the first, I would go with one of the receivers.

I think that Wright will be a better receiver than Kyle Williams, and would be our fourth wide receiver by the start of the season.

Stephen Hill would almost certainly take longer to develop, but he has good hands, size, and speed.

I would then make a serious attempt to move up in the second to draft Fleener. Fleener would be our second tight end; better than Walker.

If Baalke and Harbaugh decide to take Fleener in the first, I will not complain.

The chances of Fleener lasting past the Colts and Andrew Luck at #33 are 0%.

Then we do not get Fleener in the second, do we?