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The Total Inability of 49er Fans to Understand Receiver Performance

So, here's the narrative we hear on webzone incessantly:
- Crabtree will never be a #1
- Manningham is overrated
- Moss is Washed up
- Williams needs to be cut (for some reason)
- Delanie Walker is Awesome! No reason to draft Coby Fleener

Well, I'm here to tell you that all of those are untrue with the exception of the Moss one - because I have no idea how much he has left in the tank. I will rely on Footballoutsiders.com to assess the performance of our receivers. http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

Crabtree - Crabtree improved dramatically from 2010 to 2011, after an even bigger improvement from 2009 to 2010. Extrapolating the trend, he should be a top 15 WR in 2012. On par with a Dez Bryant or something like that. method: I did a curve fit for 2009/10/11 stats and extrapolated the trend. Now, we can all throw stones at this extrapolation, but it is clear that Crabtree has the stuff to be a #1 and has improved a ton every year.

Manningham - Is everyone aware that Manningham was the 16th Best WR in 2010? And that he caught 65% of passes thrown his direction that year? And that he only caught 51% of targeted passes in 2011? He was hurt all year, and Cruz got the better routes to run. Manningham may end up being the steal of Free Agency.

Williams - On a per-play basis, Williams performed as well as Myles Austin and Torrey Smith. That's borderline #1 performance, for a little guy out of the slot that's 23 years old!

Moss - total wild card in 2012

Walker - Everyone thinks Walker is dominant, but it is a *Myth*. DVOA of -7% in 2011, 0.3% in 2010, and a horrid -20% in 2009. Totally replaceable, and not on par with other teams that run 2 TEs. You replace him with Coby Fleener (bump walker to 3rd TE), and productivity shoots up!

** With the exception of Moss, Manningham is the "old man" of the receiver corps at the ripe old age of 25!

Thoughts?
Originally posted by FILTHpigskin:

the condescension of MadDog finally melds with the frequency and redundancy of nickbradley.
Williams needs to be cutt, cost me a superbowl and cost me a night of over spending $$ on drinking
  • pd24
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Member Milestone: This is post number 1,200 for pd24.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
So, here's the narrative we hear on webzone incessantly:
- Crabtree will never be a #1
- Manningham is overrated
- Moss is Washed up
- Williams needs to be cut (for some reason)
- Delanie Walker is Awesome! No reason to draft Coby Fleener

Well, I'm here to tell you that all of those are untrue with the exception of the Moss one - because I have no idea how much he has left in the tank. I will rely on Footballoutsiders.com to assess the performance of our receivers. http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

Crabtree - Crabtree improved dramatically from 2010 to 2011, after an even bigger improvement from 2009 to 2010. Extrapolating the trend, he should be a top 15 WR in 2012. On par with a Dez Bryant or something like that. method: I did a curve fit for 2009/10/11 stats and extrapolated the trend. Now, we can all throw stones at this extrapolation, but it is clear that Crabtree has the stuff to be a #1 and has improved a ton every year.

Manningham - Is everyone aware that Manningham was the 16th Best WR in 2010? And that he caught 65% of passes thrown his direction that year? And that he only caught 51% of targeted passes in 2011? He was hurt all year, and Cruz got the better routes to run. Manningham may end up being the steal of Free Agency.

Williams - On a per-play basis, Williams performed as well as Myles Austin and Torrey Smith. That's borderline #1 performance, for a little guy out of the slot that's 23 years old!

Moss - total wild card in 2012

Walker - Everyone thinks Walker is dominant, but it is a *Myth*. DVOA of -7% in 2011, 0.3% in 2010, and a horrid -20% in 2009. Totally replaceable, and not on par with other teams that run 2 TEs. You replace him with Coby Fleener (bump walker to 3rd TE), and productivity shoots up!

** With the exception of Moss, Manningham is the "old man" of the receiver corps at the ripe old age of 25!

Thoughts?

I agree with the Fleener thing. He would be a better target than Walker. Crabtree is solid, just needs to go through a whole off season and pre season and I think that will help him get off to a better start. Manningham will be a steal, he knows how to get open and can get deep. Im fine with Williams as long as he doesn't return kicks. Moss is a wildcard.
good post man! I agree with most of what you are saying. Moss is a wildcard but I really think we got good effort out of him and at least decent production but that of course could be debated a million ways. Manningham your spot on! Dude was a STUD at Michigan and hasn't played poorly at all, the Giants WRs are just that good and he was #3. He could be the Carlos Rogers of this year. Crabtree I agree can be a #1 but I don't see him ever being a top 5 wideout but that's okay he can still be a very good player. I love Dwalk though man, he is a jack of all trades and is a great chess piece for Harbaugh/Roman. Remember the catch against Detroit? I'd rather see us take a OG or a WR in the first over a TE unless Walker has already given us the indication that he either wants too much money to extend his contract which is up at the end of this year or he wants to try and be a starter somewhere else. Then Fleener makes sense. But I still think we could stand to upgrade elsewhere before we add a 3rd TE
I'm surprised it took you over 2000 posts to realize most posters on this forum are the off spring of Skip Bayless.

A year ago most posters wanted to grab their pitch forks and burn Alex Smith's house down and hang him from a tree.

Now they want to line up for a chance to blow him.
[ Edited by mikeyrocks on Mar 21, 2012 at 11:05 AM ]
Originally posted by HessianDud:
the condescension of MadDog finally melds with the frequency and redundancy of nickbradley.

so no comment?
Originally posted by matt49er:
good post man! I agree with most of what you are saying. Moss is a wildcard but I really think we got good effort out of him and at least decent production but that of course could be debated a million ways. Manningham your spot on! Dude was a STUD at Michigan and hasn't played poorly at all, the Giants WRs are just that good and he was #3. He could be the Carlos Rogers of this year. Crabtree I agree can be a #1 but I don't see him ever being a top 5 wideout but that's okay he can still be a very good player. I love Dwalk though man, he is a jack of all trades and is a great chess piece for Harbaugh/Roman. Remember the catch against Detroit? I'd rather see us take a OG or a WR in the first over a TE unless Walker has already given us the indication that he either wants too much money to extend his contract which is up at the end of this year or he wants to try and be a starter somewhere else. Then Fleener makes sense. But I still think we could stand to upgrade elsewhere before we add a 3rd TE

Except that Manningham did have a terrible 2011. Even if you look at the reduced number of opportunities he played poorly.

Totally out of trend, and I expect him to bounce back.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by HessianDud:
the condescension of MadDog finally melds with the frequency and redundancy of nickbradley.

so no comment?

what's the point? if i wait ten minutes you'll be on to some new topic.
Manningham is overrated by the webzone. He was a great #3 in an elite passing attack but lets wait and see what he can do with us before we call him the steal of free agency. Josh Morgan was signed before him, there is a reason for that.
[ Edited by DirtyP on Mar 21, 2012 at 11:07 AM ]
Originally posted by matt49er:
good post man! I agree with most of what you are saying. Moss is a wildcard but I really think we got good effort out of him and at least decent production but that of course could be debated a million ways. Manningham your spot on! Dude was a STUD at Michigan and hasn't played poorly at all, the Giants WRs are just that good and he was #3. He could be the Carlos Rogers of this year. Crabtree I agree can be a #1 but I don't see him ever being a top 5 wideout but that's okay he can still be a very good player. I love Dwalk though man, he is a jack of all trades and is a great chess piece for Harbaugh/Roman. Remember the catch against Detroit? I'd rather see us take a OG or a WR in the first over a TE unless Walker has already given us the indication that he either wants too much money to extend his contract which is up at the end of this year or he wants to try and be a starter somewhere else. Then Fleener makes sense. But I still think we could stand to upgrade elsewhere before we add a 3rd TE

But walker isn't good, it's a myth. bear pascoe is better!
If they get Fleener and a 2nd round receiver... or spend number 30 on a receiver, they'll have another high draft pick or picks who should contribute to the passing game.

Also, a RG who gives Smith time to throw.

Can't wait for the draft... the future is looking bright!
Can agree with most of the general sentiment. I have an irrational trust that Crabs will indeed become a true number 1 and top 10 receiver. I also think that Kyle Williams is a valuable asset as a receiver, but will not stand to see him field another punt as long as I live. Hope he's on the team after TC though, as I think he has the right skills to be a playmaker and the attitude to recover from his horrid NFCCG and use that experience as motivation. One part I disagree with is Delanie. Don't know what DVOA is or what it accounts for but Delanie brings a lot to the table that can't be graphed or measured. Like his block on Suh to TWICE spring Gore for big gains, his game winner at the end of that same game, etc. He's a great player for Roman to have and utilize. While Fleener would probably be an upgrade as a receiver I don't know if he can really replace what Delanie brings to the table.