Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by GetoThunderFist:
Originally posted by jreff22:
easiest answer is keep the INT numbers low
But couldn't Kaepernick do the same if given the same offense to run? Alex Smith didn't suddenly learn how to be more efficient with the ball.
Look at every rookie QB how played 16 games...the INT numbers are always high, its the nature of the beast. And Alex is running the "playbook for dummies" version....NFL reads are harder then college reads.
It boggles my mind how people think Kaepernick could do the same and keep the INTs low. Kaepernick has never started an NFL game. He has no experience and there's no way someone could expect him to not get much more confused than a veteran like Smith.
Not to be rude to those people but I don't think they understand the complexity of an actual system. If the NFL was that easy everybody would do it...yet only 32 guys in the world play the position on a full time basis....find me another job with that kind of statistic. To put it into perspective there are more astronauts at NASA then starting QB's in the NFL. We have more people certified to go to the moon then we have starting QB's.
Assuming you are trying to compare the difficulty at which someone can fill in for a QB and succeed to the ease at which someone can fill in for an astronaut and succeed, and in the end come to the conclusion that Kaepernick would not perform as well as Smith is bonkers given the comparison.
Astronauts may be selected for their skill set, intelligence, physical attributes, learning ability, physical shape, performance under stress, or any of a variety of other attributes. QBs may be selected by NFL teams based on these attributes and maybe other attributes such as release, touch, accuracy, etc. So before a QB gets into the NFL they are specially selected to a professional team, and in the case of Kaepernick, Harbaugh and Baalke personally selected him. Same with astronauts. Before they become an astronaut they are tested and specially selected by NASA. So, both QBs and astronauts are chosen for their attributes because based on these attributes people believe they can succeed.
After being selected, Astronauts are vigorously trained and educated to become an astronaut so that they will be able to perform their missions. Before their missions, they partake in simulated missions to better understand how everything will proceed during the actual mission. QBs are being trained their whole life, but the real training begins in College and really shifts into gear if/when they reach the pros. I have little double our alternate astronauts can replace our primary astronauts and perform just as well given how intense, as you mentioned, the selection process is to become an astronaut as there are so few of them. Do we know how they will perform? No, because we have not given them the chance. Have we set them up to be able to complete their mission given the training we have provided them? I think so. Are we confident that they can perform their mission given the training and simulations? I would think so.
Both astronauts and backup QBs have been trained to be able to succeed in carrying out their mission. In our case since Harbaugh and Baalke personally chose Kaepernick by moving up in the draft to select him, I have just as much confidence that he can take over the offense and perform competently as an alternate astronaut could.
In Kaepernick's case, Harbaugh is training him so that he will be able to perform our offense during game time and help our team to achieve victory. Because Kaepernick is our second string QB he runs our offense 60-70% of the time during practices and the opponents offense 30-40% of the time, and thus has simulated running our offense so as to be able to step in and perform our offense and achieve victory. In this particular instance, Smith runs our offense 100% during practices against our 2nd string defense and has played almost 100% of all regular season and post season games this year. So while Smith has the experience, Kaepernick has still simulated our offense most of the practices for an entire season against our 1st string defense. A defense which is better than every other defense in the league, in my honest opinion. I believe these simulations enable Kaepernick to be able to perform our offense as Harbaugh envisions it, just as an astronaut could perform his/her mission.
However, there are some things that one just can't teach, so there is always an element of unknown as to how someone will perform if they have never completed a space mission or performed a particular offensive system. These are things like performance under an emergency situation, e.g. down by 7 with 1 minute left to go in the game or, in an astronauts case, a malfunction in the control system of the shuttle. Maybe a certain astronaut or QB is naturally great at reacting quickly and selecting the best option available when under duress or pressure. Who knows? Do we know that Kaepernick will perform better than Smith? No. Do we know that Kaepernick will perform worst than Smith. No. Why? Because there are some variables we cannot factor in until it actually happens. Is it riskier to start Kaepernick than Smith? Yes, but only because do not know the extent of Kaepernick's capabilities.
Really, how one comes out on the Smith versus Kaepernick dilemma depends on their level of aversion to risk given the fact that we went 13-3 last season and made it to the NFC Championship Game. If you are more averse to risk, then you are going to choose Alex Smith as our starting QB because you believe he is the safe choice to get us to 13-3 again and you know how capable Alex is. If you are less averse to risk, then you are going to choose Kaepernick (or if you are me, Tolzien) because you believe that given one year in the system, which includes simulating practices under the direction of our very competent coaching staff, that either is perfectly capable of performing our offense, but you are not sure how well because we have not seen their ability to react under pressure for an entire game or season or other such variables that we just can't possibly measure until we put them into that position. One's choice in Tolzien or Kaepernick may be based on the aforementioned, but could also include the same considerations that those choosing Alex use: you know his capabilities, but in this case you have an unjustifiable belief that Kaepernick or Tolzien can exceed Alex's capabilities.
Obviously, other factors could come into play as well.
Given the comparison to astronauts, I believe Kaepernick can perform our offense just as an alternate astronaut, who has never completed a space mission, could perform a primary astronaut's mission. However, whether Kaepernick will perform our offense better or worst than Smith, throughout an entire game or season, is impossible to know until Kaepernick is put into a game. So, basically one's choice, as to who they would choose to start next year, has a lot to do with that person's aversion to risk.