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If You Were Smith.........

Alex will not succeed with any other team that would WANT him. The other teams he might have success with already have QBs and wouldn't bother trying to sign him. Don't misread what I am saying - if we don't re-sign him, some other team WILL sign him, but he isn't going to see the same success he might here.

So, if I were Alex Smith, I'd just accept the 3-year deal the 49ers are offering, do my best to raise my value while I'm here and look for a big payday when Kaepernick or whichever QB takes over.
  • mike
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Bend over and take that small contract like a man Alex.
  • vaden
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[ Edited by vaden on Mar 10, 2012 at 1:26 PM ]
  • mike
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Originally posted by 49erRider:
Alex will not succeed with any other team that would WANT him. The other teams he might have success with already have QBs and wouldn't bother trying to sign him. Don't misread what I am saying - if we don't re-sign him, some other team WILL sign him, but he isn't going to see the same success he might here.

So, if I were Alex Smith, I'd just accept the 3-year deal the 49ers are offering, do my best to raise my value while I'm here and look for a big payday when Kaepernick or whichever QB takes over.

When his value has presumably tanked enough for us to give kaep enough of a shot? I just doubt he gets a big payday somewhere else after a season that he lost his starting position. There has to be some sort of concern from alex that he can't repeat the low turnovers(and stay healthy, remember his shoulder problems of the past) year after year. Even some of the best QBs fluctuate in turnover-to-TD ratio.

He wants security, because he put up his first decent season, who knows if he can repeat it.
[ Edited by mike on Mar 10, 2012 at 1:18 PM ]
so he did good one year, 49ers have ever right to be cautious with this, 6 years with team and one good season. if i were smith id take what they give me, especially after the team gave you chances after chances.
Originally posted by mike:
Bend over and take that small contract like a man Alex.

  • vaden
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Originally posted by PRIMETIME21:
so he did good one year, 49ers have ever right to be cautious with this, 6 years with team and one good season. if i were smith id take what they give me, especially after the team gave you chances after chances.

And a team that, under Nolan, tried to sabotage him and ruin his reputation. 4 healthy years with the team and the last 3 of those were respectable. He showed vast improvement in his 2nd year and put up solid numbers in his next two healthy seasons despite playing under morons.
Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
To your point, 3 years is nothing for a 27 year old QB. If he really does perform, he could hit the jackpot at 30. That seems to be the prime for QBs anyway. It's not like he's a RB.

agreed
  • mike
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Originally posted by vaden:
32 TD/8 INT, 92.6 qb rating in Alex's last 24 games, dating back to the week after Raye was fired. Source. He did that with a sub-par OL and WRs and a mediocre, vastly overrated running game, one that ranked lower in yards to per rush than Alex ranked in yards per attempt, one that was dead last on 3rd & short. Of course Alex had his problems on 3rd down as well, but he ranked far better than our RBs, ahead of Cam and only 1-2% behind Eli, Stafford and Cutler, which is only due to his receivers routinely dropping easy catches.

Your math is off, last 24 games = 29 td/10 int. Or roughly 1.2 touchdowns per game.

Our run game is supposed to have higher per attempt than our passing game? Find me a half decent team where that's the case. The fact that your stats include when Gore was hurt and Dixon wasn't doing s**t,has to skew the stats.

If anything our run game is aging but underrated because Gore gets absolutely zero help from the passing game to relieve pressure. Even with our relatively efficient passing game last year teams focused on stopping the run. Why? Because gore can rip defenses open, Alex can not.
[ Edited by mike on Mar 10, 2012 at 1:37 PM ]
Originally posted by mike:
Originally posted by vaden:
32 TD/8 INT, 92.6 qb rating in Alex's last 24 games, dating back to the week after Raye was fired. Source. He did that with a sub-par OL and WRs and a mediocre, vastly overrated running game, one that ranked lower in yards to per rush than Alex ranked in yards per attempt, one that was dead last on 3rd & short. Of course Alex had his problems on 3rd down as well, but he ranked far better than our RBs, ahead of Cam and only 1-2% behind Eli, Stafford and Cutler, which is only due to his receivers routinely dropping easy catches.

Your math is off, last 24 games = 29 td/10 int. Or roughly 1.2 touchdowns per game.

Our run game is supposed to have higher per attempt than our passing game? Find me a half decent team where that's the case. The fact that your stats include when Gore was hurt and Dixon wasn't doing s**t,has to skew the stats.

If anything our run game is aging but underrated because Gore gets absolutely zero help from the passing game to relieve pressure. Even with our relatively efficient passing game last year teams focused on stopping the run. Why? Because gore can rip defenses open, Alex can not.

Alex ripped defenses open last year when he had to. The Philly game and NO one are two prime examples.
  • mike
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Originally posted by qnnhan7:
lmfao I had to look at it like 3 times before I realized he has bolts in his neck. Peytonstein.
Alex Smith is in a negative leverage situation, and he knows it. He and his agent want 5, the Niners offered 3, which means with no known suitors, he'll be forced to take what they decide to give him and be forced to like it which isn't exactly chump change if it's in the $8-10 million range.
[ Edited by 602_JamestownAve on Mar 10, 2012 at 3:02 PM ]
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Originally posted by taney71:
Alex ripped defenses open last year when he had to. The Philly game and NO one are two prime examples.

When we're behind and about to lose the game he can manage a good drive down the field for a touchdown. But in general, if you were a D-Coordinator, would you be afraid of 195 yd/game 1.2 td/game Alex Smith? I doubt it.

Both of those games we had a decent sized lead that a truly dangerous/elite QB could have built upon instead of the typical 3rd quarter "three and out" quarter. Philly had THREE POINTS going into the 3rd.
[ Edited by mike on Mar 10, 2012 at 1:48 PM ]
Originally posted by mike:
Originally posted by taney71:
Alex ripped defenses open last year when he had to. The Philly game and NO one are two prime examples.

When we're behind and about to lose the game he can manage a good drive down the field for a touchdown. But in general, if you were a D-Coordinator, would you be afraid of 195 yd/game 1.2 td/game Alex Smith? I doubt it.

this post makes zero sense. If I were a Defensive Coordinator, I would be afraid of a QB who can win a game when its on the line no matter what his stats are.