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Week 15: Thoughts after re.....ok only watched it once because I was AT the game. ;-)

Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
Originally posted by fryet:
Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
Originally posted by Young2Rice:
Its been said many times by experts Smith needs to get the ball out quicker. It doesn't get much more simple then that. I think its pretty apparent when you watch the games. He hesitates at times.

I don't dispute that is among his flaws. That was not the initial point. That point was (paraphrased): I watch Smith in person and, based on that, claim that Smith (unlike all other QBs) consistently misses open wide receivers. I dispute that conclusion because it appears to be based on limited data and bias, rather than an objective analysis of all the data.

I don't think this is a fair counter-argument. If the requirement is that you must watch all games for all QB (in person!) to make a statement about Alex Smith's play, then you have effectively prevented everyone except apparently Cosell (and even he can't watch all games in person) from making comments. The bar really isn't that high. If you disagree with the person's analysis/conclusions, provide your own in rebuttal. Don't tell them that they can't speak until they achieve your artificial bar.
It is not a requirement. But IF the claim is that Smith -UNLIKE ALL OTHER QBS - consistently misses wide-open WRs, then shouldn't one have viewed all those other quarterbacks, too? Otherwise, it is just conjecture premised on predisposition.

A more reasonable position to me is: Smith misses open receivers. Other QBs miss open receivers. I've watched every snap of Smith's play this year and see this consistent problem. I have not watched every other QB's snaps (nor do I have a vested interest in doing so), but it seems to me that Smith is far worse in this regard than other QB's are.

I will not accept someone's opinion as gospel truth, particularly when it is not backed up by data or facts.

Gonna have to agree with you.

I think Alex has played very well this year, but he does miss wide open receivers more than the upper echelon of NFL QBs. This isn't a statement that says "Alex Sucks". It just means he's not Drew Brees, Aaron Rogers, Tom Brady, etc. He's simply NOT one of those guys.

That doesn't mean the Niners can't win with him and it doesn't mean that they HAVE to have one of those top three guys. It simply means that he has some areas of his game that he needs to work on.

Deep passes over the middle? Alex is actually very good between the numbers. The seam route to Vernon over the past few years has featured some FANTASTIC throws by Alex. The Vernon Drop vs the Rams? Great throw. The Crabtree TD was a fantastic throw. Its simply sideline and corner routes where he seems to have trouble. He doesn't just miss the guy, he misses him by 10 yards. Only the camera guys have a chance at them.

My personal opinion is that this relates to the problem he's had all along...he's afraid to turn the ball over. He has always worried about forcing the ball. Thats why he's held it too long forcing a sack, an incompletion, allowing a defender to close on a WR before he gets the ball, or checking it down way too early. I don't think that he's simply horribly inaccurate. His passes between the number discount that theory.

I think he's less confident in those sideline passes and worries too much about UNDERTHROWING the pass and causing a turnover and in turn he pushes the ball too far making it impossible for the receiver to make a play. Thats just my opinion tho.
[ Edited by Marvin49 on Dec 21, 2011 at 1:19 PM ]
Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
Originally posted by Young2Rice:
Its been said many times by experts Smith needs to get the ball out quicker. It doesn't get much more simple then that. I think its pretty apparent when you watch the games. He hesitates at times.

I don't dispute that is among his flaws. That was not the initial point. That point was (paraphrased): I watch Smith in person and, based on that, claim that Smith (unlike all other QBs) consistently misses open wide receivers. I dispute that conclusion because it appears to be based on limited data and bias, rather than an objective analysis of all the data.

" (unlike all other QBs) "


I don't see where anyone in that particular dialogue referenced "all other QB's."

The poster made observations about what he saw about Smith at the games. He didn't mention any other QBs. It is pretty much on point. Even you admit its one of Smith's flaws. So what exactly are we arguing?
  • fryet
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,840
Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
Originally posted by fryet:
Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
Originally posted by Young2Rice:
Its been said many times by experts Smith needs to get the ball out quicker. It doesn't get much more simple then that. I think its pretty apparent when you watch the games. He hesitates at times.

I don't dispute that is among his flaws. That was not the initial point. That point was (paraphrased): I watch Smith in person and, based on that, claim that Smith (unlike all other QBs) consistently misses open wide receivers. I dispute that conclusion because it appears to be based on limited data and bias, rather than an objective analysis of all the data.

I don't think this is a fair counter-argument. If the requirement is that you must watch all games for all QB (in person!) to make a statement about Alex Smith's play, then you have effectively prevented everyone except apparently Cosell (and even he can't watch all games in person) from making comments. The bar really isn't that high. If you disagree with the person's analysis/conclusions, provide your own in rebuttal. Don't tell them that they can't speak until they achieve your artificial bar.
It is not a requirement. But IF the claim is that Smith -UNLIKE ALL OTHER QBS - consistently misses wide-open WRs, then shouldn't one have viewed all those other quarterbacks, too? Otherwise, it is just conjecture premised on predisposition.

A more reasonable position to me is: Smith misses open receivers. Other QBs miss open receivers. I've watched every snap of Smith's play this year and see this consistent problem. I have not watched every other QB's snaps (nor do I have a vested interest in doing so), but it seems to me that Smith is far worse in this regard than other QB's are.

I will not accept someone's opinion as gospel truth, particularly when it is not backed up by data or facts.
First off, I don't expect you or anyone to automatically accept the opinions of others - I know that I most certainly don't. However, instead of watching all games for all QB, how about if you have watched at least one game (on TV) involving each team? Also, Smith really isn't being compared to all QB, he is really being compared to the top 10-15 in the league. Being familiar with their body of work would be much easier for a fan to make an informed opinion.
  • Axl49
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 1,353
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
49ers fans need to stop selling their tickets to where home games almost start looking like away games, WAY too many bandwagon Steelers fans in the crowd last night.

What I have been saying all year long. Our fands just dont show up its sad and irritating. Especially when you are there at the game.
Originally posted by Young2Rice:
Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
Originally posted by Young2Rice:
Its been said many times by experts Smith needs to get the ball out quicker. It doesn't get much more simple then that. I think its pretty apparent when you watch the games. He hesitates at times.

I don't dispute that is among his flaws. That was not the initial point. That point was (paraphrased): I watch Smith in person and, based on that, claim that Smith (unlike all other QBs) consistently misses open wide receivers. I dispute that conclusion because it appears to be based on limited data and bias, rather than an objective analysis of all the data.

" (unlike all other QBs) "


I don't see where anyone in that particular dialogue referenced "all other QB's."

The poster made observations about what he saw about Smith at the games. He didn't mention any other QBs. It is pretty much on point. Even you admit its one of Smith's flaws. So what exactly are we arguing?

NVM.