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Media and the 49ers

Originally posted by Chief:
Linky


The point: There's almost no way the team will approach its 13-3 record from last season.

In covering this ground previously, I noted that the 13 teams finishing with 13-3 records from 2004 through 2010 had won 8.3 games on average the following season. Three finished better than 9-7. Over the same period, the 19 teams finishing 13-3 or better all finished with lesser records the next year. The average drop was 4.1 victories per team.

Schatz's reasoning for projecting a drop takes into account historical data.

"Teams that improve dramatically from one season to the next do tend to settle to previous levels in the third year," he said. "That is exacerbated for the 49ers by having the quality of their team wrapped up in defense and special teams. Offense tends to be most consistent from year to year. Special teams is the least consistent of the units. Defense is second. The 49ers' defense and special teams are likely to come back to the pack."

Schatz also thinks the 49ers were unusually healthy on defense last season, and that they'll most likely be less healthy in 2012. The 49ers current and former leadership put together their roster, particularly the defense, with size in mind. Former general manager Scot McCloughan, borrowing from Ron Wolf, believed bigger players held up better over the course of a season. The thinking intrigued Schatz, whose company tracks injury information. By combining injury information with data for size, might we have an easier time predicting injuries for certain players and teams?

"It's an interesting theory," Schatz said. "There are teams that no doubt have a record of better health. The 49ers do not quite count as one of those teams. They have been healthy on defense three of the last four years. Dallas is a team that tends to suffer fewer injuries. Kansas City was a team. Cleveland tends to suffer more. New England has suffered more than average and gotten away with it."

My problem with these kind of assessments is that I can buy an argument that the defense might not be quite a dominant as last season. But what I don't understand is why is it that the defense is suddenly going to be just average this season. The Steelers and Ravens defense is generally excellent year in and year out because they are well coached and talented. So I can't see why our defense can't be just like the Steelers and Ravens who usually have a top 5 defense every season.

Secondly it seems like a lot of assessments fail to take in account an improved offense. It's like they well the defense should take a step back thus you'll lose more games but never the defense may take a step back but the offense will take a step forward to help cover for the defense a bit. Regardless of what you think of Alex Smith I think we can all agree he should have a better year than he did last year and you did start to see the offense get better and better as the season went on and that should carry over to this season.
Well, it seems that a lot of media outlets are taking certain things for granted with almost all pointing to a step backwards for us. To me, it seems the recurring ideas that guys like Rosenthal, Priscoe and Football Outsiders (among others) are spouting are:

-Defense can't sustain the dominance they had last year
-Offense will remain conservative and not stretch the field, thereby not scoring a lot of points
-AS can't sustain the low turnover ratio
-Injuries will hurt us more this year than last
-Seattle and Arizona will be better
-Schedule is more difficult / Division foes have it easier

Well, in retort here would be my responses to those ideas:

-No one questioned the yearly dominance of the Steelers and Ravens for the past decade on D, so why is it so far-fetched that our D who is returning the ENTIRE lineup will not automatically regress?
-If anything, this team has gone out and got playmakers who can stretch the field and score points. Of course the games need to be played, but it is almost like the media expects the same exact effort from our offense as well
-Sure, AS probably will throw a couple more picks, but they are automatically assuming his cap is 17 TDs. With an improved receiving corp, it would seem logical to assume that his TD numbers will increase with his INTs
-The injury thing is such cheap way to make a point. Year to year, no team can predict injuries and some teams naturally have to deal with it more than others. They do seem to forget that our WR corp was pretty much decimated by the end of the season and we still were winning games.
-Why is it assumed that SEA and AZ will be better and we will regress? What has either team done in this offseason to really warrant that expectation? In addition to the fact that we really had no offseason losses and addressed just about every need.
-Schedule: Our primary tough games are GB, CHI, DET, NE, NYG and NO. Seattle has to play GB, CHI, DET, NE, DAL and ATL. AZ has to play GB, CHI, DET, NE, PHI and CAR. Looks to me like the "tough" games we have to play are fairly even.

I kind of feel like a lot of these media outlets are coming to the conclusion "The 9ers are not that good" and then coming up with lame-brain reasons why their theory might be true. Pretty much, for us to regress to the point that a lot of these analysts are saying, just about every one of the above ideas would have to come true, which I see as highly unlikely.
most of the "hate" is because nobody really respects our QB and think he is average. Teams that have super star QBs usually get all the love.
Originally posted by susweel:
most of the "hate" is because nobody really respects our QB and think he is average. Teams that have super star QBs usually get all the love.

Fair enough. But then they go beyond that and say that's all he'll be. It goes back to when they were saying that he 'sucked', and that's all he'll ever be so lets get rid of him. Seems like they were wrong then, and mostly likely will be wrong some more.
Originally posted by qnnhan7:
Originally posted by susweel:
most of the "hate" is because nobody really respects our QB and think he is average. Teams that have super star QBs usually get all the love.

Fair enough. But then they go beyond that and say that's all he'll be. It goes back to when they were saying that he 'sucked', and that's all he'll ever be so lets get rid of him. Seems like they were wrong then, and mostly likely will be wrong some more.


I hope so I would like to see Alex do really well this season and possibly have a pro bowl caliber year.
  • cciowa
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 24,151
Originally posted by qnnhan7:
Originally posted by susweel:
most of the "hate" is because nobody really respects our QB and think he is average. Teams that have super star QBs usually get all the love.

Fair enough. But then they go beyond that and say that's all he'll be. It goes back to when they were saying that he 'sucked', and that's all he'll ever be so lets get rid of him. Seems like they were wrong then, and mostly likely will be wrong some more.
come on man. the media hated the niners long before smith was our quarterback. they only liked us when it appeared we were becoming respectable.. once we took a few steps above respectability,, they opted to hate us again.. plus the media has a certain idea of how the game is to be played and they do not like it because we almost went to the super bowl and we confounded thier arrogant ideas of what you need to do to be a nfl upper level team.. I guess you can of course spin that to blame smith. we blame smith cuz we had 14 wins and got one game shy of the super bowl? sorry i have no time to figure out that type of "logic"
  • cciowa
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 24,151
Originally posted by susweel:
most of the "hate" is because nobody really respects our QB and think he is average. Teams that have super star QBs usually get all the love.
so,, are you worried or concerned that the media does not like us?
Originally posted by cciowa:
Originally posted by qnnhan7:
Originally posted by susweel:
most of the "hate" is because nobody really respects our QB and think he is average. Teams that have super star QBs usually get all the love.

Fair enough. But then they go beyond that and say that's all he'll be. It goes back to when they were saying that he 'sucked', and that's all he'll ever be so lets get rid of him. Seems like they were wrong then, and mostly likely will be wrong some more.
come on man. the media hated the niners long before smith was our quarterback. they only liked us when it appeared we were becoming respectable.. once we took a few steps above respectability,, they opted to hate us again.. plus the media has a certain idea of how the game is to be played and they do not like it because we almost went to the super bowl and we confounded thier arrogant ideas of what you need to do to be a nfl upper level team.. I guess you can of course spin that to blame smith. we blame smith cuz we had 14 wins and got one game shy of the super bowl? sorry i have no time to figure out that type of "logic"

Sorry man. I went retard and thought I was in the Alex Smith thread. I thought the 'hate' that susweel referred to was the Smith 'hate' not the media 'hate' of the team he was referring to. Ooops!
  • cciowa
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 24,151
Originally posted by qnnhan7:
Sorry man. I went retard and thought I was in the Alex Smith thread. I thought the 'hate' that susweel referred to was the Smith 'hate' not the media 'hate' of the team he was referring to. Ooops!
you are fine! The media hated us when we were good, they hated us and laughed at us when we were bad. If they are going to hate us, at least we are good again
I agree with susweet Just look at how they talking about the Panthers b/c of Cam They don't even mention any flaws about the team they just talk about Cam. These guys have called Smith a bum for 7 years and they aren't gonna change form that after one season. They are all waiting to say i told you so and that last year was flash in the pan.
If you think they hate the niners now, wait until we have been regularly taking their goodies. Then, the hatred will turn to fear.

I remember opposing teams doing dumb stuff in the last minutes of a game because they knew Walsh and Montana were coming, and there was nothing they could do to stop them.

We will see those days again. Those days are now.
and when was the last time the media has been right about ANYTHING?
Goes back to the way the team played last year on offense. Like it or not the media would rather talk about good offensive production. All the fans want to see good offensive football too, including myself. So they ain't buying into us being on top again this year with that in mind. Maybe good for 13-3 record but not good enough to be talked about extensively on media shows.

Unless we can do better offensively this year.
Originally posted by cciowa:
Originally posted by susweel:
most of the "hate" is because nobody really respects our QB and think he is average. Teams that have super star QBs usually get all the love.
so,, are you worried or concerned that the media does not like us?

No I like the uderdog role the media gives us. I also think JH prefers it that way.
Originally posted by susweel:
Originally posted by cciowa:
Originally posted by susweel:
most of the "hate" is because nobody really respects our QB and think he is average. Teams that have super star QBs usually get all the love.
so,, are you worried or concerned that the media does not like us?

No I like the uderdog role the media gives us. I also think JH prefers it that way.

media and fans might not give us chance..but i doubt other coaches will