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Keep the points or take the first down?

I must be the only one who understands football, because it seems like I'm the only person supporting the Harbaugh decision. People who are angry simply do not understand the calculation Harbaugh made, and Bill Belichick would have made this decision with our team.

Simply put, the odds of scoring a touchdown were lower than the chance that we miss the make-up field goal, which is about 30% for Akers with 40-49 yard attempts...probably higher outdoors and so-so turf that had caused a lot of slippage during the game.

It was a PERFECT DECISION, a rational decision, a decision that a software program with perfect information would have made. I CHALLENGE ANYONE to make the case that we were more likely to score a touchdown than miss the follow-up.

Here's backup for the pro-Harbaugh case:

1. It's two scores that matters, not 2 touchdowns

2. Gore ran for 2.4 yards per carry and Smith was sacked once every FIVE times he dropped back. Chances of scoring were very low.

3. Accepting the penalty would have put us on the 25, or a 42-yard field goal.

4. If we didn't advance down the field again, Akers would have still been required to kick a 40+ yard field goal.

5. In his career, Akers has missed 3 out of every 10 field goals between 40 and 49 yards.

6. Half of our drives went backwards or nowhere, especially in the second half.

7. Heavy pressure causes turnovers.
ya basically a lot of things needed to go wrong to make harbaugh look stupid for that decision..... and they did.
Originally posted by dtb49ers:

How can someone with 53 posts be a "veteran"????
Originally posted by 49erfeeeever808:
ya basically a lot of things needed to go wrong to make harbaugh look stupid for that decision..... and they did.

You know what would have made him look stupid? Accepting the penalty, running twice for 4 or 5 yards, seeing Alex get sacked (again), and missing a 44-yarder.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
You know what would have made him look stupid? Accepting the penalty, running twice for 4 or 5 yards, seeing Alex get sacked (again), and missing a 44-yarder.

That's what usually happens so I like the call that was made also. Up 10 points if we could put some offense together, we win the game.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
I must be the only one who understands football, because it seems like I'm the only person supporting the Harbaugh decision. People who are angry simply do not understand the calculation Harbaugh made, and Bill Belichick would have made this decision with our team.

Simply put, the odds of scoring a touchdown were lower than the chance that we miss the make-up field goal, which is about 30% for Akers with 40-49 yard attempts...probably higher outdoors and so-so turf that had caused a lot of slippage during the game.

It was a PERFECT DECISION, a rational decision, a decision that a software program with perfect information would have made. I CHALLENGE ANYONE to make the case that we were more likely to score a touchdown than miss the follow-up.

Here's backup for the pro-Harbaugh case:

1. It's two scores that matters, not 2 touchdowns

2. Gore ran for 2.4 yards per carry and Smith was sacked once every FIVE times he dropped back. Chances of scoring were very low.

3. Accepting the penalty would have put us on the 25, or a 42-yard field goal.

4. If we didn't advance down the field again, Akers would have still been required to kick a 40+ yard field goal.

5. In his career, Akers has missed 3 out of every 10 field goals between 40 and 49 yards.

6. Half of our drives went backwards or nowhere, especially in the second half.

7. Heavy pressure causes turnovers.

Originally posted by socal81:
That's what usually happens so I like the call that was made also. Up 10 points if we could put some offense together, we win the game.

Like I said, the chances of missing a make-up FG were higher than actually scoring a TD on Sunday. That is Fact. Discussion over.
Sorry. This is a human football team not a bunch of nerds slicing weapons through pig carcasses and jellly molds of ppl and then inputting all of the said data in to a puter and letting the puter decide who the victor is. On this day, that decision was chicken sh_t. It sent the wrong message to his team and the team lost. How in the hell was it the right decision? WE LOST. Period. Nice try though. Your argument seems sound, cojent, what have you but like I said, it's played by humans. Harbaugh took a dump in his pants on this one.
[ Edited by TDilvr on Sep 18, 2011 at 10:49 PM ]
It's about winning. Think back to the last 6-7 years of this team. Did we have anything to lose by taking the 15 yds, run off more time, maybe win the game with a TD, and still have a chance at a FG after 3 more tries. It's not like we can't kick a FG on at the end of those fresh downs.

A chance for a knockout punch or wait on a decision at the end of the fight.
Originally posted by TDilvr:
Sorry This is a human football team not a bunch of nerds slicing weapons through pig carcasses and jellly mold of ppl and then inputting all of the data in to a puter and letting the puter decide who the victor is. On this day, that decision was chicken sh_t. Sent the wrong message to his team and the team lost. How in the hell was it the right decision? WE LOST. Period. Nice try though. Your argument seems sound, cojent, what have you but like is said it's played by humans. Harbough took a dump in his pants on this one.

TDilvr = Singletary? Seriously Bro, we tried the irrational, emotional coaching style and it failed miserably.
For a team that had no chance Harbaugh has made me a believer. I too would have taken the 3 points at that time and made it a two score game. We will learn from this and keep getting better. Man that was a close game......... GO NINERS
Originally posted by qnnhan7:
It's about winning. Think back to the last 6-7 years of this team. Did we have anything to lose by taking the 15 yds, run off more time, maybe win the game with a TD, and still have a chance at a FG after 3 more tries. It's not like we can't kick a FG on at the end of those fresh downs.

A chance for a knockout punch or wait on a decision at the end of the fight.

And again, we were more likely to miss the follow-up FG than score a TD. and what happens in the game then? We don't even go to overtime. Game over in the 4th quarter.
  • boqi
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 189
The secondary is sucking, getting walked all over by an injured Tony Romo and offense. If you're Harbaugh you've gotta go up as many points as you can.

WRONG DECISION.
Originally posted by SofaKing:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
I must be the only one who understands football, because it seems like I'm the only person supporting the Harbaugh decision. People who are angry simply do not understand the calculation Harbaugh made, and Bill Belichick would have made this decision with our team.

Simply put, the odds of scoring a touchdown were lower than the chance that we miss the make-up field goal, which is about 30% for Akers with 40-49 yard attempts...probably higher outdoors and so-so turf that had caused a lot of slippage during the game.

It was a PERFECT DECISION, a rational decision, a decision that a software program with perfect information would have made. I CHALLENGE ANYONE to make the case that we were more likely to score a touchdown than miss the follow-up.

Here's backup for the pro-Harbaugh case:

1. It's two scores that matters, not 2 touchdowns

2. Gore ran for 2.4 yards per carry and Smith was sacked once every FIVE times he dropped back. Chances of scoring were very low.

3. Accepting the penalty would have put us on the 25, or a 42-yard field goal.

4. If we didn't advance down the field again, Akers would have still been required to kick a 40+ yard field goal.

5. In his career, Akers has missed 3 out of every 10 field goals between 40 and 49 yards.

6. Half of our drives went backwards or nowhere, especially in the second half.

7. Heavy pressure causes turnovers.




BTW We're still in first