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why is everyone expecting us to finish 3rd or 4th in our division?

Originally posted by Baldie:
I hate all this talk about the niners playing to lose so they can get Luck in the draft. All these experts placing us last in the division. Those experts can all kiss my a**.

I for one think we have a good team and we can make some noise in the division. We had a mediocre coaching staff and we beat AZ how many times? even when they had Warner. We have a coaching staff with fire and I think they will put this team in position to win. We have the talent to do just that. We are much more talented than Seattle and St Louis. If we beat Seattle and Dallas the first 2 weeks.....what will those so-called experts say then? Probably nothing....the excuse will be Seattle and Dallas played horribly.

We'll be a team under the radar and we'll end up surprising a few people....just watch.....

The coaching staff hasn't even got deep into the playbook on offense and defense during the preseason, they said so themselves. People are already writting them off when we haven't yet seen what they can do. The past is the past. Until we can get a few weeks into the season, we need to hold off on the trash talking.
-Alex Smith is a huge part of it. The guy has never had success, and "experts" have no reason to believe Harbaugh can suddenly flip the light on
-Unproven college head coach
-too many unknowns on offense and defense (How will Whitner perform? Is Rogers an upgrade? Will our run D be good? How will Braylon meld? can our OL hold up? on and on...)
Because we have the 3rd-4th worst QB in the division.

Bradford
Kolb
Alex Smith
Tavares Jackson
The last 3 years everyone picked us to win the division. That means that first of all: the " experts" don't have a clue.
Originally posted by bigmike55:
Because we have the 3rd-4th worst QB in the division.

Bradford
Kolb
Alex Smith
Tavares Jackson


What has Kolb ever done? He played for a much better team, system and great HC/OC.

Bradford never threw a pass over 10 yards last year but he's the second coming? Everbody on this board dumps on us for the checkdown but thats Bradfords bread and butter!

Not saying Alex is great but I think with Jim and our new O, he's every bit as good as those two and much better than Jackson but we'll just have to wait to see how the season plays out.
simple our qb situation. Until Alex smith proves something nobody will believe in the Niners. folks have some faith in Kolb b/c of Andy Reid's track record. Sam Bradford showed a lot as a rookie. And well nobody believes in Seattle b/c their qb situation is some garbage.
Because ON PAPER this team has just about every negative going:

lockout,

NFL rookie coach,

questionable QB,

questionable OL,

questionable secondary,

questionable WRs,

inexperienced ownership and FO,

etc.

Those are all points the national media see from their satellite view of the team. Until the team actually puts something on the field to change the view of the media, this team will continue to be listed at or near the bottom of the weakest division in the NFL.

Personally, I believe Harbaugh is changing the culture and the environment and I believe he will get better results more quickly than most expect, barring key injuries. However, until that results in an upset win or two, along with consistent play, that will not change the national view.
Originally posted by Daniel2778:
I have been reading predictions from all over the past week, and it looks like 90% of the predictions have us finishing 3rd or 4rd in our division. Am i missing something? i just dont understand, we have by far the most talent in our division. if anything, our defense is better, we have a better secondary, better pass rushers, better coaches, better recievers. we have improved both on defense and offense. STL, SEA and CARDS have not improved dramatically. everyone had us winning the division last year, and now that we got better, they are all picking us to finish 3rd or 4th? what am i missing?

Fans have been saying that the past couple of seasons, and have you seen how the team did? That is why we are being picked to finish 3rd or 4th. All of the things you list as positives "might" actually be, but we don't know yet. A new coach is something we get excited about - but he's still a rookie with no NFL coaching experience. 6 new starts on defense "should" be an improvement in talent, but it also takes time for that many new starters to gel together as a unit. Receivers "should" be better, "if" Braylon doesn't get another DUI and "when/if" Crabs gets used to the offense, since he missed preseason - again. And we still have Alex Smith. The knock on him (from his own college coach) is that he has to completely know an offense before he is any good in it. That has been one of the top Alexcuses, that he has had to learn a new offense every year. Well this year is no different, except for he's had LESS time to learn it because of the lockout. Do we really think he is just going to miraculously blossom in this brand new offense as soon as week one gets here?
  • Lifer
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 949
Originally posted by Daniel2778:
I have been reading predictions from all over the past week, and it looks like 90% of the predictions have us finishing 3rd or 4rd in our division. Am i missing something? i just dont understand, we have by far the most talent in our division. if anything, our defense is better, we have a better secondary, better pass rushers, better coaches, better recievers. we have improved both on defense and offense. STL, SEA and CARDS have not improved dramatically. everyone had us winning the division last year, and now that we got better, they are all picking us to finish 3rd or 4th? what am i missing?

Several reasons I can think of:

1.) First year rookie Head Coaches generally don't do well. History says that it takes a new coach a year or two to figure it out.
2.) The lockout is seen as a major handicap to the team's development in their first year under the new system.
3.) Huge question mark at QB. Alex Smith might blossom in his sixth season, but the odds are against it.
4.) People have been picking the 49ers to break out and win their division for three years now. They've gotten burned every time. So now the prognosticators are giving the team a wide berth.

So, it's all about the tendencies and the odds. Strangely, this gives me hope. I think this team is going to defy the odds and do well this year. We really do have some serious talent and we're way under the radar. There are few things in life as sweet as proving the doubters wrong.
[ Edited by Lifer on Sep 7, 2011 at 9:14 AM ]
Smith started to have success when Norv was here, then Norv went to SD. After Norv we had defensive minded coaches who knew nothing about developing a QB. Now we have Harbaugh, although unproven as of yet, knows how to work with QB's. You've seen glimpses of this in the preseason. I can understand the knock we all have on Smith but I felt bad for him because he was never ever given a consistant direction. I do agree with most of you that this is his year to finally show what he can do and I say THIS year only because he finally has a QB's coach to lead him and he has pro bowl caliber players at each position to help him thrive.

We could have taken Rodgers, but who's to say he wouldn't have ended up in the same hole as Smith. One positive to Rodgers, he's had consistant coaches and his HC is an offensive guru. You look at the HC who are offensive minded (SD, GB, NO, etc.), they are all successful. We might not get to that level this year, but we sure have something to look forward to. But with our division, you never know.
-New Coach(es) with a new system.
-No legit starter at QB
-We dont know whether Edwards will pan out as a true #1 WR, i.e. we dont have a real #1 WR yet.
-We dont know whether our o-line will play better, though it cant be worse.
-We have a new NT, Soap, and acc to that a new LDE. Ok, the latter thing should be an upgrade b/c Soap wasnt never a good pass-rusher.
-Spikes is gone and we dont know whether Bowman can take over for him.
-Lawson is gone, who is a very good run defender. Who will replace him?
-We still dont know which of our LBs can be a QB-threat.
-Do we have a #1 CB? Rogers is a good one but you never know.
-Where is the FS upgrade?

The only positions I am not afraid about are RB and SS. Whitner is not an all-pro but still an upgrade over the bodies we had last year. Gore is injury-prone but I do think that Dixon/Hunter can replace him in a solid way.

Nevertheless, a team, even in such a weak division, which has so many questions to answer, cant be regarded as a favorite or sth like that. According to the last season and the Draft as well as the FA, the Rams should win this division. If Kolb plays at least better than Skelton etc., the Retards will be ahead of us.
In general, you shouldnt forget that our divison rivals have their coaches and systems longer than for 3 months. Ok, the Rams added McDaniels but I dont think that there will be a whole system switch.
Retards have Whisenhunt for years, it'll we Carroll's 2nd year in Seattle and even the third for Spagnuolo with the Rams. Continuity can be a big advantage.
No QB

/thread
http://www.jiraentertainment.com/2011/09/jira-entertainment-2011-nfl-predictions/
because they are too busy blowing Sam Bradford and Kevin "Scott Mitchell" Kolb.

Fun Fact in the final 5 games last year Bradford threw 1 TD(which was against us) 6 INTS and sacked 12 times,I expect him to hit the sophomore slump and not to mention Rams went 4-0 in preseason,so we all know what that means. And Kolb just blows. We are the most talented and stacked team in this very weak NFC West f**k what the so called "experts" think.as long as Alex doesnt f**k up, and the offense can gel We WILL prove the doubters and haters wrong
Must you ask...............you should know the answer 2 that...............the O line & your boy Alex Smith thats why