Originally posted by NTeply49:
Why should you support Alex Smith as your starting QB if Harbaugh selects him!
If you think like me, then you believe our passing offense will be more productive, our QBs will throw the ball better, and our offense overall will be better and put up way better numbers(130% more productive) with Harbaugh at the helm than it was with Johnson, and WAY better than Raye.
If you think like me, then you believe a QB needs an entire off season learning a playbook to perform at maximum capacity and an offense should perform better with a full off season practicing the plays they will actually be running versus installing a new offense 3 games into the year. There is a learning curve.
I believe Alex Smith will be back and he will play well. I also dont think he played as bad as the media made him look. Anyways here are some numbers that support why I think Smith deserves one last shot.
Alex Smith finished with a 82.4 QB rating in 2010. Not horrible by any means. Good for 22nd in the league. For this post I broke Smiths season down into 3 parts. The first 3 games with Raye. The first 4 games with Johnson as OC while the team was learning new plays. And the last 4 games he played in.
The 1st 3 games with Jimmy Raye calling the plays the offense was predictable and easily one of the worst many of us have ever seen. Smiths numbers were horrible.
1st 3 games with Raye
72/119 60% 732 Yards 2 TDs 5 INTs 66.2 QB Rating
The following 4 games before Smith was benched in favor of Troy, Smith started to put up decent numbers as the team started learning the new offense before Singletary started to crumble under pressure and hit the panic button to start to Troy Smith era. I also think Smith got hurt in the Carolina game but I dont recall exactly. His numbers were decent.
1st 4 games with Johnson as OC
71/123 57% 822 yards 7 TDs 4 INTs 83.45 QB Rating
Now for the last 4 games of the season, well lets just say if all you could do was look at the QB rating there wouldnt be any arguments on this subject.
Last 4 games with Johnson as OC
61/100 61% 816 yards 5 TDs 1 INTs 99.41 QB Rating
This was the year Alex Smith started to blossom this year after we got rid of Jimmy Raye. If you disclude the games with Raye as coordinator his stats would have looked like this.
Season with Johnson as OC
132/223 59% 1638 yards 12 TDs 5 INTs 90.6 QB rating
A 90.6 QB rating would have been good for 6th in NFL right above Joe Flacco at 90.0. Take those last 8 games of stats and double them to see what his stats could have looked like with a full season of Mike Johnson calling the plays.
What Smiths stats could have looked like with a full season with Johnson as OC
264/446 59% 3276 yards 24 TDs 10 INTs 90.6 Rating
Not only that, in the redzone, the smallest part of the field to work with, he had the best QB rating in the NFL at 124.4. The only other 2 that were close were Peyton Manning at 105.9 and Drew Brees at 92.3. To me, this shows me he is capable run a west coast system and make good decisions because a west coast system emphasizes short quick passes and run after the catch. If Crabtree and Ginn don't drop the ball his numbers would have been even better.
Ive been an avid supporter of Smith, and I've taken the time to break down these stats and calculate Qb ratings using http://brucey.net/nflab/statistics/qb_rating.html to try and show you why you should too.
Do you still want Smith gone after seeing these numbers? How could you give up now after hes finally starting to turn the corner? Weve waited this long, are we really going to throw in the towel and let another team pick him up and reap the benefits of 6 years of our suffering? How dissapointed would you be if we released him and he won a Super Bowl or even just made the Pro Bowl? Whats the harm in resigning him and giving him an opportunity to compete for the job?
A lot of fans need to open their eyes, eliminate emotion, and look at this situation more rationally.
(Dear Mods - I would like to post this as its own topic since I put so much time into it but understand there are enough Alex Smith threads out there. However I do not think there has been one as analytical of the numbers as mine, and people need to see these numbers before blindly hating him and running him out of town. If you will allow it please message me or move it to its own post and title it "The Numbers Say Stay, Why Do The Fans Say GO". Thank you)
1. Mike Johnson ain't here no more. That throws a lot of your Mike Johnson numbers out the windy.
2. The 49ers are 19-31 in games started by Alex. I'm not cherry picking any one period of his career. Just giving the full info. 19-31.
3. He is INJURY PRONE. Injured in '05, most all of '07, ALL of '08, some of '10. Cannot be relied upon to play all 16 as he has done that once in 6 years.
4. The main argument for Alex is he NEEDS OC CONTINUITY. Well, then why did he REGRESS his 2nd year with Raye? Also, if he needs this continuity, he WILL struggle in '11 to pick up the system. Your basically throwing away '11 so that Alex 'might' get it in '12
5. He's Captain Checkdown. He does not read defenses. He looks at one guy and if it's not there, he checks it down. This is why Gore is often our leading WR.
6. He's not a natural leader. Players responded a lot more to Troy than Alex. A lot of the locker room does not like Alex and does not play hard for him.