49ers vs. Crabtree (Contract - Who Won?)

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by ruthless49er:

Originally posted by LA9erFan:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
This is brought to you by....The Truth Hurts!!!!

According to Andrew Brandt's article on the National Football Post, I am right. Both sides made concessions, and both sides won battles on this contract. Brandt knows his stuff. He is a former salary cap administrator for an NFL team, and his breakdown was excellent.

Here is the pasted information at the conclusion. Many others have attached the link throughout this thread:

The Wait: The offer on the table for Parker and Crabtree of a couple days ago was:

Five years, $20M, $16M guaranteed.

The final deal is:

Six years, $32M ($28M over the first five), $17M guaranteed.

Analysis: Many have speculated that Crabtree took the same deal he was being offered for weeks, if not months, by the team. Parker and Crabtree may have made $8M over the next five years with their trip to San Francisco yesterday.

Hopefully the above data points out the strengths and weaknesses of this deal from both sides. It was a win for the team on some things and a win for the player on others, a deal that neither side feels great about. That usually means it is a good deal for both sides.

This was quite a saga, with a final face-to-face meeting spurred by a chance meeting between 49ers president and owner Jed York and MC Hammer at a social function. Only in the NFL

I'm sorry I have not been able to respond to some that have been claiming "victory" the last couple days, and have attempted to attack my position that both sides would win.

I guess, once again, these individuals who hope for nothing more for me to be wrong..... are wrong, and I....am right. What a shocker!!!

Cheers.

P.S. Eric Heitmann is still a good football player!!!!

Fact: The amount of guaranteed money that Crabtree is receiving is less than the #9 pick, but more than the 11th pick.

Fact: The annual salary that Crabtree will receive, even if pro-rated for him missing 1/4 of the year this year, is less than what Raji will receive if Raji plays more than 35% of the defensive snaps in ANY season, which is virtual certainty.

Fact: In order to surpass Raji's base compensation, Crabtree has to make at least one pro-bowl in one season and play 80%+ of the offensive snaps in another in the next 3 years.

Fact: BJ Raji will hit free agency a year before Crabtree does, unless Crabtree reaches the aforementioned escalators.

Fact: There were a variety of reports that indicated that the Niners would go up to $1 of Raji's contract, but would not exceed it. You referenced this a couple of days ago.

Rumor: Parker was seeking a more lucrative contract than DHB's.

Fact: Parker did not come close to achieving that.

Analysis: In every reasonable way, Crabtree was paid according to his slot, and would have to reach extremely unlikely goals in order to exceed it. Considering Parker's goals of exceeding DHB's contract, and the Niner's goals of staying within the slot, the Niners are the clear victor.

Did the Niners move up within the slot? Yes, of course. But in comparison to the concessions that Parker made, they're minimal.

One more thing...

Fact: I wonder how long it took for you to find someone to agree with you. I hope you feel validated.

Wow MD for reals im starting to think maybe these guys might not have been all the way wrong about you. You did say youd admit you were wrong and you refuse to do so. Ok if you really wish to hold to that point how about admitting you were wrong for calling out ther niners management as..inept, clueless etc etc. saying quite emphatically that Micheal Crabtree will NEVER play for the niners. this year or any other. Maybe people in general should quit making predictions one way or the other. How bout we have more analysis posts and less opinion posts from erryone. that might make NT more bearable.

Let's go through your statements.

First, I did call out the Niners' management for being blindsided by Crabtree asking for money outside the slot. This should have been common sense. The team seemed unprepared for a big contract offer than Crabtree would ask for, something I predicted on draft day. That is why I projected the signing to take place on August 15, more than two weeks after training camp started. About a handful of people agreed with me that he would not sign by start of camp, and people roundly criticized my prediction.

I have never stated that Crabtree will NEVER play for the Niners. My last opinion, which was asked by another poster a week ago, was a 50-50 shot.

wow...MD this is beyond even what im trying to grasp. right after the season started you came out and said quite confidently that Crabtree will never play for the niners and hed most likely be traded by march 1st. i remember this becuase after reading your post i was convinced that theres no turning back. the fact that you deny ever saying crabtree will not play for the niners is just ...wow come on man i thot you were better and smarter than this petty nonsense.

About the niner management not knowing, fine maybe that has some merit but how about giving them props for getting the deal done without breaking the slot? isnt that what you said theyd have to do. go beyond the slot. all the hard money shows they stayed within it. even with Brandt's analysis. In fact he says everything abotu htiting incentives which makes it more lucrative. someone else asked this too in a much more informative way so im hoping youd answer that.

I still got hope for you man. some of your analysis is spot on that i agree with. but damn its a shame that i could point at you as one of the few shining examples from the Zone. now you just sound as bad as these homers.

Originally posted by LA9erFan:

Originally posted by oldninerdude:

Originally posted by SonocoNinerFan:
Based on yearly averages, the Niners landed Crabtree in the upper end of the #10 slot when looking at plausible outcome of the escalators in the Crabtree and Raji deals. That much is obvious if analyzing this by comparing apples to apples.

I'm sure Parker got some concessions that were important to him, but in the end the Niners did what they set out to do.

I'm still ticked that this deal didn't get done in July. This is where I see genuine bad faith from Parker in that I believe he was counting on gaining leverage by virtue of a poor start by the Niners and when that didn't happen he had to come into town with hat in hand and negotiate a deal that could have been done much earlier.

I'm with you on that. Its really too bad Crabtree wasn't in TC and isn't likely going to be in a position to contribute for some weeks, at the earliest.

Given his talent I expect that he will contribute some this year, though.

As to whether it was Parker or Crabtree himself that was behind the holdout, I doubt that we'll ever really know, but the scenario you present is a likely as any.

IMO, Parker's responsibility at this point is to take as much of the criticism as he possibly can. The thing that keeps getting lost in this is that he made Crabtree look bad. Whether it's just or unjust, his client's public perception took a hit as the result of these negotiations. This is important because if Crabtree is the player that I hope he is, he's going to have more companies asking for him to endorse their product.

At this point, those companies aren't going to touch him with a ten foot pole, and when they do approach him the terms of the deal are going to be less favorable than they would be if he signed in July and was playing well for a resurgent 3-1 team.

This is another angle in which Parker lost...at least for the time being.

I was never upset with either Parker or Crabtree for trying to get the best contract that they could. I just thought it was an extremely poor move from a strategic standpoint, and I think the eventual contract and resulting public perception are confirmation of that.

I don't think there's any question that Crabtree's public persona took a hit because of the holdout.

As to the rest, I prefer to focus on the upside of things: the Niner's front office showed themselves quite capable. They determined the value of the player's services early, and then showed themselves to be patient (when some of the rest of us were losing it), professional, determined, and resourceful in eventually obtaining those services.

So whether Parker/Crabtree "lost" or not, one thing seems certain, the Niner's FO are winners, despite the baseless and somteimes irrational disrepect voiced about them by some members of this board.

There are different ways to view the contracts that players signed.

1.total amount of the contract
2.Yearly average of the contract
3.Total amount guaranteed
4. Yearly average guaranteed
5.% of contract guaranteed

Crabtree was the 10th pick. DHB was the 7th pick. Crabtree held out with the intention of getting a contract equal to or better than DHB. Did it work?
In my estimate, the hold-out did not work. DHB’s contract was better than his slot in four of the five categories I looked at. Crabtree’s contract was better than his slot in two of those categories—total amount of contract and yearly average of the total contract. If reports are true, and I believe the reports are true, Crabtree will never earn the incentives that pushed his contract above his slot in those two categories.

In my final estimate, it clearly looks like Crabtree and Parker, and Parker in particular, lost big with this hold-out.
Crabtree DHB
1.Total amount of the contract 6th 7th
2.Yearly average of the contract 9th 6th
3.Total amount guaranteed 10th 6th
4.Yearly average guaranteed 11th 6th
5.% of contract guaranteed 31st 5th

Originally posted by LA9erFan:

Originally posted by oldninerdude:

Originally posted by SonocoNinerFan:
Based on yearly averages, the Niners landed Crabtree in the upper end of the #10 slot when looking at plausible outcome of the escalators in the Crabtree and Raji deals. That much is obvious if analyzing this by comparing apples to apples.

I'm sure Parker got some concessions that were important to him, but in the end the Niners did what they set out to do.

I'm still ticked that this deal didn't get done in July. This is where I see genuine bad faith from Parker in that I believe he was counting on gaining leverage by virtue of a poor start by the Niners and when that didn't happen he had to come into town with hat in hand and negotiate a deal that could have been done much earlier.

I'm with you on that. Its really too bad Crabtree wasn't in TC and isn't likely going to be in a position to contribute for some weeks, at the earliest.

Given his talent I expect that he will contribute some this year, though.

As to whether it was Parker or Crabtree himself that was behind the holdout, I doubt that we'll ever really know, but the scenario you present is a likely as any.

IMO, Parker's responsibility at this point is to take as much of the criticism as he possibly can. The thing that keeps getting lost in this is that he made Crabtree look bad. Whether it's just or unjust, his client's public perception took a hit as the result of these negotiations. This is important because if Crabtree is the player that I hope he is, he's going to have more companies asking for him to endorse their product.

At this point, those companies aren't going to touch him with a ten foot pole, and when they do approach him the terms of the deal are going to be less favorable than they would be if he signed in July and was playing well for a resurgent 3-1 team.

This is another angle in which Parker lost...at least for the time being.

I was never upset with either Parker or Crabtree for trying to get the best contract that they could. I just thought it was an extremely poor move from a strategic standpoint, and I think the eventual contract and resulting public perception are confirmation of that.

LA this post is very well said, and pretty much sums up how I feel.

I hated the hold out from the standpoint that they were going to gain nothing. I am still not 100% sold on Sing (although I am getting there), but I knew from the moment it was clear Crabtree was holding out that the team was not going to fold. Singletary has instilled a lot of backbone and pride in not just the team, but seemingly the entire organization. Added to the fact that the Niners have been some shrewd negotiators over the last few years, and imo it was pretty obvious.
Crabtree had the potential to be a superstar right out of the gate, even in our offense, and Parker robbed him of that for nothing, by way of comparison.

What exactly did Parker gain over the starting bid that he walked away from? Now compare THAT in value to the 70+ days of a season that is 192 days from beginning to end (including preseason), 2-3 weeks of which the Niners are realistically unlikely to play even if the progress displayed every week continues.

Add in the negative national publicity, not to mention local and with the fan base, and this hold out sums up to disastrous in the short term, and who knows long term. Whats worse is now that we get to hear from Crabtree on the whole thing, and hear what others are quoting him as saying, it really does seem like he was taken along for a ride somewhat.

Originally posted by buck:
There are different ways to view the contracts that players signed.

1.total amount of the contract
2.Yearly average of the contract
3.Total amount guaranteed
4. Yearly average guaranteed
5.% of contract guaranteed

Crabtree was the 10th pick. DHB was the 7th pick. Crabtree held out with the intention of getting a contract equal to or better than DHB. Did it work?
In my estimate, the hold-out did not work. DHB’s contract was better than his slot in four of the five categories I looked at. Crabtree’s contract was better than his slot in two of those categories—total amount of contract and yearly average of the total contract. If reports are true, and I believe the reports are true, Crabtree will never earn the incentives that pushed his contract above his slot in those two categories.

In my final estimate, it clearly looks like Crabtree and Parker, and Parker in particular, lost big with this hold-out.
Crabtree DHB
1.Total amount of the contract 6th 7th
2.Yearly average of the contract 9th 6th
3.Total amount guaranteed 10th 6th
4.Yearly average guaranteed 11th 6th
5.% of contract guaranteed 31st 5th

Those are some solid numbers buck. Thanks for the info.

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:

Quote:
Re: Michael Crabtree Contract Article‏
From: Andrew Brandt ([email protected])
Sent: Thu 10/08/09 12:59 PM
To: xxxxx xxxxxxx ([email protected])

Getting asked a lot about who won and lost. In my experience, never about that, not going there. Thanks.

Brandt's response to my question as to who won or lost in the negotiation. Sorry MD, but even Andrew "Cap Expert" Brant won't go there to make a definitive judgment.

How many ownages in one day. WOW!!!

Originally posted by nvchamp9ers:

Originally posted by Giant9er:

Originally posted by kronik:

Originally posted by FILTHpigskin:
Come on guys... MadDog is always right.

Now, bow down and kiss the virtual ground he floats over.

Why does anyone care what this guy thinks? Most vets on the board already knows that he's a egotistic fraud. Most including myself have no respect for this guy and won't take him seriously. Just ignore him. If not, he may run to a mod and cry to have you banned.

Anybody that has been around here for any period of time on this site knows what Maddog is, a master of spin and a master of turning others info into his own. Just don't pay attention to him, I put him in the same category of poster as NolanHasAPlan(for those of you who remember that guy lol) he simply is a joke poster who cant actually believe what he is typing, he just wants a reaction and has to much time on his hands. What do you expect from a High School teacher who never made it in football? I would be cynical and hurt about my own failure too lol

The Lord of the Trolls has entered the house. NV, you are so predictable, it is...funny. What took you so long?

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by nvchamp9ers:

Originally posted by Giant9er:

Originally posted by kronik:

Originally posted by FILTHpigskin:
Come on guys... MadDog is always right.

Now, bow down and kiss the virtual ground he floats over.

Why does anyone care what this guy thinks? Most vets on the board already knows that he's a egotistic fraud. Most including myself have no respect for this guy and won't take him seriously. Just ignore him. If not, he may run to a mod and cry to have you banned.

Anybody that has been around here for any period of time on this site knows what Maddog is, a master of spin and a master of turning others info into his own. Just don't pay attention to him, I put him in the same category of poster as NolanHasAPlan(for those of you who remember that guy lol) he simply is a joke poster who cant actually believe what he is typing, he just wants a reaction and has to much time on his hands. What do you expect from a High School teacher who never made it in football? I would be cynical and hurt about my own failure too lol

The Lord of the Trolls has entered the house. NV, you are so predictable, it is...funny. What took you so long?

I think the fact that you engage those who you consider to be "trolls", while giving quick, two sentence responses to the posts that attempt to propogate intelligent discussion speaks volumes.

As a former mod, my opinion is that a valid argument could be made for your removal from the board under the High Maintenance user clause.

It isn't the fact that you disagree with people, it's the manner in which you do so. It isn't the opinions that you hold, it's the manner in which you express them. It isn't the fact that you get into heated arguments, it's the manner in which you stoke the flames.

You're toeing a very fine line.

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:

Quote:
Re: Michael Crabtree Contract Article‏
From: Andrew Brandt ([email protected])
Sent: Thu 10/08/09 12:59 PM
To: xxxxx xxxxxxx ([email protected])

Getting asked a lot about who won and lost. In my experience, never about that, not going there. Thanks.

Brandt's response to my question as to who won or lost in the negotiation. Sorry MD, but even Andrew "Cap Expert" Brant won't go there to make a definitive judgment.

He did in the article. He said both sides won and both sides lost. So, I'll take him at his word.

Originally posted by LA9erFan:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by nvchamp9ers:

Originally posted by Giant9er:

Originally posted by kronik:

Originally posted by FILTHpigskin:
Come on guys... MadDog is always right.

Now, bow down and kiss the virtual ground he floats over.

Why does anyone care what this guy thinks? Most vets on the board already knows that he's a egotistic fraud. Most including myself have no respect for this guy and won't take him seriously. Just ignore him. If not, he may run to a mod and cry to have you banned.

Anybody that has been around here for any period of time on this site knows what Maddog is, a master of spin and a master of turning others info into his own. Just don't pay attention to him, I put him in the same category of poster as NolanHasAPlan(for those of you who remember that guy lol) he simply is a joke poster who cant actually believe what he is typing, he just wants a reaction and has to much time on his hands. What do you expect from a High School teacher who never made it in football? I would be cynical and hurt about my own failure too lol

The Lord of the Trolls has entered the house. NV, you are so predictable, it is...funny. What took you so long?

I think the fact that you engage those who you consider to be "trolls", while giving quick, two sentence responses to the posts that attempt to propogate intelligent discussion speaks volumes.

As a former mod, my opinion is that a valid argument could be made for your removal from the board under the High Maintenance user clause.

It isn't the fact that you disagree with people, it's the manner in which you do so. It isn't the opinions that you hold, it's the manner in which you express them. It isn't the fact that you get into heated arguments, it's the manner in which you stoke the flames.

You're toeing a very fine line.

I vote that you return to your role of a mod and like coach Sing - hit them in the mouth.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:

Quote:
Re: Michael Crabtree Contract Article‏
From: Andrew Brandt ([email protected])
Sent: Thu 10/08/09 12:59 PM
To: xxxxx xxxxxxx ([email protected])

Getting asked a lot about who won and lost. In my experience, never about that, not going there. Thanks.

Brandt's response to my question as to who won or lost in the negotiation. Sorry MD, but even Andrew "Cap Expert" Brant won't go there to make a definitive judgment.

He did in the article. He said both sides won and both sides lost. So, I'll take him at his word.

Um, no, he didn't. He actually doesn't use the word "lost" once in the entire article. This is the part I found most poignant:

Quote:
Hopefully the above data points out the strengths and weaknesses of this deal from both sides. It was a win for the team on some things and a win for the player on others, a deal that neither side feels great about. That usually means it is a good deal for both sides.

He only states that it's a win for the team on some things, and a win for the player on others. He never said the Niners won, or the Niners lost. The same goes for Crabtree, and his response to my e-mail echoes this sentiment.

Originally posted by kronik:
I vote that you return to your role of a mod and like coach Sing - hit them in the mouth.

And put up with the sort of insanity that goes on in here? I'm good.

Oscar (who I think does a very, very good job with this site, and pays waaaaaaaaaay more attention than anyone realizes) and I have some fundamental differences of opinions on certain things, and I don't feel right enforcing rules I don't believe in.

I like the site much more as a regular poster.

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:

Quote:
Re: Michael Crabtree Contract Article‏
From: Andrew Brandt ([email protected])
Sent: Thu 10/08/09 12:59 PM
To: xxxxx xxxxxxx ([email protected])

Getting asked a lot about who won and lost. In my experience, never about that, not going there. Thanks.

Brandt's response to my question as to who won or lost in the negotiation. Sorry MD, but even Andrew "Cap Expert" Brant won't go there to make a definitive judgment.

He did in the article. He said both sides won and both sides lost. So, I'll take him at his word.

Um, no, he didn't. He actually doesn't use the word "lost" once in the entire article. This is the part I found most poignant:

Quote:
Hopefully the above data points out the strengths and weaknesses of this deal from both sides. It was a win for the team on some things and a win for the player on others, a deal that neither side feels great about. That usually means it is a good deal for both sides.

He only states that it's a win for the team on some things, and a win for the player on others. He never said the Niners won, or the Niners lost. The same goes for Crabtree, and his response to my e-mail echoes this sentiment.

By disputing that email, he's disagreeing with Brandt's opinion of Brandt's opinion on this.

Don't think you're gonna get resolution on that one, man.

Originally posted by LA9erFan:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by nvchamp9ers:

Originally posted by Giant9er:

Originally posted by kronik:

Originally posted by FILTHpigskin:
Come on guys... MadDog is always right.

Now, bow down and kiss the virtual ground he floats over.

Why does anyone care what this guy thinks? Most vets on the board already knows that he's a egotistic fraud. Most including myself have no respect for this guy and won't take him seriously. Just ignore him. If not, he may run to a mod and cry to have you banned.

Anybody that has been around here for any period of time on this site knows what Maddog is, a master of spin and a master of turning others info into his own. Just don't pay attention to him, I put him in the same category of poster as NolanHasAPlan(for those of you who remember that guy lol) he simply is a joke poster who cant actually believe what he is typing, he just wants a reaction and has to much time on his hands. What do you expect from a High School teacher who never made it in football? I would be cynical and hurt about my own failure too lol

The Lord of the Trolls has entered the house. NV, you are so predictable, it is...funny. What took you so long?

I think the fact that you engage those who you consider to be "trolls", while giving quick, two sentence responses to the posts that attempt to propogate intelligent discussion speaks volumes.

As a former mod, my opinion is that a valid argument could be made for your removal from the board under the High Maintenance user clause.

It isn't the fact that you disagree with people, it's the manner in which you do so. It isn't the opinions that you hold, it's the manner in which you express them. It isn't the fact that you get into heated arguments, it's the manner in which you stoke the flames.

You're toeing a very fine line.

Kronik and Nv and I have a long history. Kronik was embarrassed a long time ago when I pointed out in his Bryant Johnson Arnaz Battle thread that he made four factual errors, in order to support his position that Johnson should be kept and Battle dumped. After I did the research, and facted checked his errors, he still refused to change his thread until other posters jumped in and asked him to do so. He even admitted his error on the thread, but has held a grudge ever since.

He also tend to jump into controversial threads with nothing to add but an attack. He's been doing that for some time now, and has been warned by the mods.

As for NV, I have a lot more respect for him, since he understands the game pretty well. We simply disagree on vitually everything. He tends to also jump in and go for the character attack, which I don't understand. He can argue his points pretty well, but tends to avoid the topic and simply go the slander route.

You can see the example of both posters on this thread.

[ Edited by MadDog49er on Oct 8, 2009 at 16:42:22 ]

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:

Quote:
Re: Michael Crabtree Contract Article‏
From: Andrew Brandt ([email protected])
Sent: Thu 10/08/09 12:59 PM
To: xxxxx xxxxxxx ([email protected])

Getting asked a lot about who won and lost. In my experience, never about that, not going there. Thanks.

Brandt's response to my question as to who won or lost in the negotiation. Sorry MD, but even Andrew "Cap Expert" Brant won't go there to make a definitive judgment.

He did in the article. He said both sides won and both sides lost. So, I'll take him at his word.

Um, no, he didn't. He actually doesn't use the word "lost" once in the entire article. This is the part I found most poignant:

Quote:
Hopefully the above data points out the strengths and weaknesses of this deal from both sides. It was a win for the team on some things and a win for the player on others, a deal that neither side feels great about. That usually means it is a good deal for both sides.

He only states that it's a win for the team on some things, and a win for the player on others. He never said the Niners won, or the Niners lost. The same goes for Crabtree, and his response to my e-mail echoes this sentiment.

Agreed that he did not use the word lost. I inferred that since one side won certain points, the other side lost.

[ Edited by MadDog49er on Oct 8, 2009 at 16:46:21 ]