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About Shaun Hills Low Passing numbers

  • kem99
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 570
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Originally posted by dman:
I just can't see Shaun Hill winning any Super Bowls.

maybe, but did anyone see Dilfer of all people winning one, and Hill is 100 times better IMO than Dilfer. So anythings possible.

The Dilfer example gets thrown around a lot as the ultimate example of the "manage the game" QB that won a SB. Unfortunately, a couple of things are usually forgotten: (1) Yes, Dilfer won a SB but he had a historically good defense behind him. I believe they set a record for fewest points allowed and throughout that year and then after the SB, there were discussions and comparisons made to the '85 Bears defense as to which defense was better. The 49er defense has certainly improved but it would be disingenuous to expect it to be in the same discussion as the Ravens SB defense; and (2) okay, Dilfer won his SB but he never got close prior to that year or after that year. In fact, over the last decade or so the teams that had "manage the game" type QBs that have gotten to or won a SB have tended not to have extended success. For example, the Ravens never got back to a SB despite having a top defense and top RB even after trying to upgrade their QB position. The Bucs won one year with Brad Johnson and a very good defense but never got close again. In the meantime, teams that have had recent extended success regardless of whether they have won a SB or not (Pats, Steelers, Colts, Giants, Eagles) have all had franchise type QBs.

So, its fine to point to Dilfer or Brad Johnson and say Hill can do what they did. Just remember what history shows the limitations are if you believe in the "manage the game" QB. With that said, Hill is the best they have and this is the best type of offense to suit his strengths but its likely that Singletary and/or the 49ers front office understand his limitations long term as well, which is why they wooed Warner and may look to draft a franchise type QB in the 2010 draft.
Originally posted by Memphis9er:
Originally posted by dman:
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Originally posted by dman:
I just can't see Shaun Hill winning any Super Bowls.

maybe, but did anyone see Dilfer of all people winning one, and Hill is 100 times better IMO than Dilfer. So anythings possible.

Really?

Lets just agree to disagree on that one.

I am with you, even though AB83 is unquestionably one of the better posters on this site. Shaun Hill = Trent Dilfer in his prime.

just asking Memphis....but if Hill = Dilfer in his prime

then who does Alex = _____ in his prime ?

don't shy away from the question....k
  • Kolohe
  • Hall of Fame
  • Posts: 31,121
Originally posted by Afrikan:
Originally posted by Memphis9er:
Originally posted by dman:
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Originally posted by dman:
I just can't see Shaun Hill winning any Super Bowls.

maybe, but did anyone see Dilfer of all people winning one, and Hill is 100 times better IMO than Dilfer. So anythings possible.

Really?

Lets just agree to disagree on that one.

I am with you, even though AB83 is unquestionably one of the better posters on this site. Shaun Hill = Trent Dilfer in his prime.

just asking Memphis....but if Hill = Dilfer in his prime

then who does Alex = _____ in his prime ?

don't shy away from the question....k

Alex Smith = Heath Shuler in his prime.

What?? They both pretty much have the same stats.
Originally posted by NCommand:
What's not surprising is that Hill is ranked 24th in pass ATTEMPTS. That speaks to a very conservative offense? Can he pass more? Of course...he was on pace to throw for over 4,100 yards last year. He only started 8 games and finished the year ranked 12th in the entire league. Had he played a whole year, even under Martz's pared-down offense, he would have been 4th in total yards.

24 Shaun Hill SF 57
25 Trent Edwards 56
25 Carson Palmer 56
25 Tony Romo 56
28 Matt Hasselbeck 54
28 JaMarcus Russell 54
30 Mark Sanchez 53
31 Brett Favre 48
32 Matt Cassel 39

So what's changed? I'd have to say our philosophy and an old-school OC who doesn't understand Hill's abilities/strengths yet.

What's interesting is that some of these players on this list are/were injured or also have good/great defenses and rely mostly on the run. Hill is proving he can play in a wide-open offense such as Martz and a very conservative offense in Raye.

I think some of you need to back off, get perspective and realize Hill is only doing what he's coached and that is to manage games and not lose them. Period. Two weeks in a row now, when he is turned loose, he leads us to winning but ONLY when given the chance - there are no audibles in this offense. It's ALL Raye!

His low passing numbers are because he doesn't throw to the wr's enough. He is struggling through his reads, and that might be having to do with learning a new system. But make no mistake, Hill as a qb limits the plays you can call as an OC, there is just no way around it. I can almost guarantee you that you will not see Raye call a deep out pattern for Hill, he just doesn't have the arm to make some throws that the top tier qb's in the league can make. Not that he can't throw it down the field, but he cannot put enough velocity on it to keep it from hanging up and fluttering in the breeze. As long as he doesn't cost s games I got no problem with him.
Originally posted by valrod33:
Originally posted by OX49er253:
Originally posted by valrod33:
Originally posted by ninerfan4life:
I agree! I didn't know that stat about Aikman how the hell is he in the hall of fame then?

cuz hes white

Yes!!!!! I was hoping someone would make this an race issue! I mean seriously thats the only reason Akili Smith isn't in the hall of fame.



exactly.

I bet they put Brett Favre in before they put Andre Ware in, and thats a damn shame

I may be mistaken, but I believe Andre Ware is in the hall of fame. College hall of fame.
Originally posted by Kolohe:
Originally posted by Afrikan:
Originally posted by Memphis9er:
Originally posted by dman:
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Originally posted by dman:
I just can't see Shaun Hill winning any Super Bowls.

maybe, but did anyone see Dilfer of all people winning one, and Hill is 100 times better IMO than Dilfer. So anythings possible.

Really?

Lets just agree to disagree on that one.

I am with you, even though AB83 is unquestionably one of the better posters on this site. Shaun Hill = Trent Dilfer in his prime.

just asking Memphis....but if Hill = Dilfer in his prime

then who does Alex = _____ in his prime ?

don't shy away from the question....k

Alex Smith = Heath Shuler in his prime.

What?? They both pretty much have the same stats.

Does that mean that Alex Smith will run for Congress?
  • Kolohe
  • Hall of Fame
  • Posts: 31,121
Originally posted by Memphis9er:
Originally posted by NCommand:
What's not surprising is that Hill is ranked 24th in pass ATTEMPTS. That speaks to a very conservative offense? Can he pass more? Of course...he was on pace to throw for over 4,100 yards last year. He only started 8 games and finished the year ranked 12th in the entire league. Had he played a whole year, even under Martz's pared-down offense, he would have been 4th in total yards.

24 Shaun Hill SF 57
25 Trent Edwards 56
25 Carson Palmer 56
25 Tony Romo 56
28 Matt Hasselbeck 54
28 JaMarcus Russell 54
30 Mark Sanchez 53
31 Brett Favre 48
32 Matt Cassel 39

So what's changed? I'd have to say our philosophy and an old-school OC who doesn't understand Hill's abilities/strengths yet.

What's interesting is that some of these players on this list are/were injured or also have good/great defenses and rely mostly on the run. Hill is proving he can play in a wide-open offense such as Martz and a very conservative offense in Raye.

I think some of you need to back off, get perspective and realize Hill is only doing what he's coached and that is to manage games and not lose them. Period. Two weeks in a row now, when he is turned loose, he leads us to winning but ONLY when given the chance - there are no audibles in this offense. It's ALL Raye!

His low passing numbers are because he doesn't throw to the wr's enough. He is struggling through his reads, and that might be having to do with learning a new system. But make no mistake, Hill as a qb limits the plays you can call as an OC, there is just no way around it. I can almost guarantee you that you will not see Raye call a deep out pattern for Hill, he just doesn't have the arm to make some throws that the top tier qb's in the league can make. Not that he can't throw it down the field, but he cannot put enough velocity on it to keep it from hanging up and fluttering in the breeze. As long as he doesn't cost s games I got no problem with him.

Check the out-route to Josh Morgan at 1:45-2:00 in this video. Hill just needs to settle down in this offense and he will start to take more shots down field. Raye's just a little too conservative IMO.
Originally posted by kem99:
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Originally posted by dman:
I just can't see Shaun Hill winning any Super Bowls.

maybe, but did anyone see Dilfer of all people winning one, and Hill is 100 times better IMO than Dilfer. So anythings possible.

The Dilfer example gets thrown around a lot as the ultimate example of the "manage the game" QB that won a SB. Unfortunately, a couple of things are usually forgotten: (1) Yes, Dilfer won a SB but he had a historically good defense behind him. I believe they set a record for fewest points allowed and throughout that year and then after the SB, there were discussions and comparisons made to the '85 Bears defense as to which defense was better. The 49er defense has certainly improved but it would be disingenuous to expect it to be in the same discussion as the Ravens SB defense; and (2) okay, Dilfer won his SB but he never got close prior to that year or after that year. In fact, over the last decade or so the teams that had "manage the game" type QBs that have gotten to or won a SB have tended not to have extended success. For example, the Ravens never got back to a SB despite having a top defense and top RB even after trying to upgrade their QB position. The Bucs won one year with Brad Johnson and a very good defense but never got close again. In the meantime, teams that have had recent extended success regardless of whether they have won a SB or not (Pats, Steelers, Colts, Giants, Eagles) have all had franchise type QBs.

So, its fine to point to Dilfer or Brad Johnson and say Hill can do what they did. Just remember what history shows the limitations are if you believe in the "manage the game" QB. With that said, Hill is the best they have and this is the best type of offense to suit his strengths but its likely that Singletary and/or the 49ers front office understand his limitations long term as well, which is why they wooed Warner and may look to draft a franchise type QB in the 2010 draft.

whoa whoa. the ravens have had sustained success just like the eagle and the colts, they are constantly in the playoff hunt and SB contenders. then big ben is not an elite QB, he is a very good QB and in his 1st SB he did exactly what hill is doing now.

and the ravens had a better string of success than the giants have had.
Originally posted by Memphis9er:
Originally posted by NCommand:
What's not surprising is that Hill is ranked 24th in pass ATTEMPTS. That speaks to a very conservative offense? Can he pass more? Of course...he was on pace to throw for over 4,100 yards last year. He only started 8 games and finished the year ranked 12th in the entire league. Had he played a whole year, even under Martz's pared-down offense, he would have been 4th in total yards.

24 Shaun Hill SF 57
25 Trent Edwards 56
25 Carson Palmer 56
25 Tony Romo 56
28 Matt Hasselbeck 54
28 JaMarcus Russell 54
30 Mark Sanchez 53
31 Brett Favre 48
32 Matt Cassel 39

So what's changed? I'd have to say our philosophy and an old-school OC who doesn't understand Hill's abilities/strengths yet.

What's interesting is that some of these players on this list are/were injured or also have good/great defenses and rely mostly on the run. Hill is proving he can play in a wide-open offense such as Martz and a very conservative offense in Raye.

I think some of you need to back off, get perspective and realize Hill is only doing what he's coached and that is to manage games and not lose them. Period. Two weeks in a row now, when he is turned loose, he leads us to winning but ONLY when given the chance - there are no audibles in this offense. It's ALL Raye!

His low passing numbers are because he doesn't throw to the wr's enough. He is struggling through his reads, and that might be having to do with learning a new system. But make no mistake, Hill as a qb limits the plays you can call as an OC, there is just no way around it. I can almost guarantee you that you will not see Raye call a deep out pattern for Hill, he just doesn't have the arm to make some throws that the top tier qb's in the league can make. Not that he can't throw it down the field, but he cannot put enough velocity on it to keep it from hanging up and fluttering in the breeze. As long as he doesn't cost s games I got no problem with him.

What? Maybe we're talking about two sides of the same coin. When a QB is only asked to throw minimal times (attempts) [remember, Raye predetermines if it's a pass or not no matter what defense is shown - no audibles] that has nothing to do with reads. Sure, you can add 8 sacks to that but also look at the throw-aways. Part of his inability to consistently get through his progressions is b/c of a line that for the most part, has been a sift. I'm not buying the arm-strength argument b/c he did do it last year and suddenly now he can't? Raye is only going to call two, maybe three deep passes a game and that would be hard for ANY NFL QB to be spot on without some sort of rhythm which clearly, he is not allowed to get into until the 4th Q or late in the game when we really need him. Raye isn't being conservative and calling short to intermediate plays b/c Hill can't hit longer plays but b/c he was hired by Singletary to play smash-mouth football, relying on TOP, the defense, special teams and NOT turning the ball over (e.g. only high percentage passes). A lot of those deep routes you see that are open are designed for underneath passes and clock control. Singletary and now Hill have both said in their pressers that Hill is asked NOT to lose games. It has NOTHING to do with his inability to open up the offense and make 50 yard bombs all day like we got a taste of last year under Martz, IMHO.
The problem is not the low passing numbers. The problem is that teams do not feel threatened by Hill, thus the unbelievable stacking of the box of 8-9 defenders consistently. Although Aikman's numbers were rarely great, opposing teams did not stack 8-9 consistently because the passing threat was there.
[ Edited by kronik on Sep 22, 2009 at 3:31 PM ]
Originally posted by kronik:
The problem is not the low passing numbers. The problem is that teams do not feel threatened by Hill, thus the unbelievable stacking of the box of 8-9 defenders consistently. Although Aikman's numbers were rarely great, opposing teams did not stack 8-9 consistently because the passing threat was there.

You may have a good point but nobody would fear Aikman either if his OC and coach came out publicly and said they wanted to run the rock 60-40 no matter what the defense does and then actually sticks with it despite 8-9 men in the box and a number of run blitzes. Defenses see Hill is not allowed to call audibles. Aikman was and he also had 2 fantastic WR's and TE to not only throw too but was ALLOWED to audible out and throw too...think NFC Championship game, audible to Harper...game over! His numbers, like Big Bens don't have to be great when you have a stellar defense and terrific running game you can rely on. My point: Hill could be feared but he isn't given the chance to make defenses respect him or our passing game. Hell, looking at the above highlight video, Jason Hill was tearing it up. And now he's inactive...we don't even NEED WR's anymore with this philosophy - just to block down field and catch an occasional pass.

BTW: This is why I might have been one of the many few who was against the Crabtree pock (not that I didn't understand it)
[ Edited by NCommand on Sep 22, 2009 at 3:49 PM ]
Just wait til Jason comes back. It's gonna be dynamic.
Originally posted by valrod33:
Originally posted by ninerfan4life:
I agree! I didn't know that stat about Aikman how the hell is he in the hall of fame then?

cuz hes white

Yeah; but, that's Obama's fault.
oh yeah and for the record f**k Troy Aikman
Originally posted by NCommand:
What's not surprising is that Hill is ranked 24th in pass ATTEMPTS. That speaks to a very conservative offense? Can he pass more? Of course...he was on pace to throw for over 4,100 yards last year. He only started 8 games and finished the year ranked 12th in the entire league. Had he played a whole year, even under Martz's pared-down offense, he would have been 4th in total yards.

24 Shaun Hill SF 57
25 Trent Edwards 56
25 Carson Palmer 56
25 Tony Romo 56
28 Matt Hasselbeck 54
28 JaMarcus Russell 54
30 Mark Sanchez 53
31 Brett Favre 48
32 Matt Cassel 39

So what's changed? I'd have to say our philosophy and an old-school OC who doesn't understand Hill's abilities/strengths yet.

What's interesting is that some of these players on this list are/were injured or also have good/great defenses and rely mostly on the run. Hill is proving he can play in a wide-open offense such as Martz and a very conservative offense in Raye.

I think some of you need to back off, get perspective and realize Hill is only doing what he's coached and that is to manage games and not lose them. Period. Two weeks in a row now, when he is turned loose, he leads us to winning but ONLY when given the chance - there are no audibles in this offense. It's ALL Raye!

Ahh I knew Raye was he reason hill has trouble with zip on his deep outs and in and doesn't put anything on his short passes so his wrs have to stop. I also knew Raye was the reason Hill locks on to guys and doesn't turn his head and gets flustered in the pocket and blows. Please..