Realistic Expectations for this season

Originally posted by danimal:
DJ43 -

I actually think ALL teams are flawed in todays NFL. Even the top 5 or 6 who are in the Championship talks, none of of those teams are perfect to me.

Again, I just think the VERY worst place to be flawed is at QB

Yep. I recall Steve Young last year saying there are only 8-10 teams in the league that could be considered solid at the QB spot. The rest could never win the big games because of that reason.

And that is the reason I have backed off from my original 8-8 to 7-9. I just don't believe that the 49ers can win once opponents realize that Hill can't burn them long. They will load the box with eight or nine defenders, shut down the run, cover the short zones and dare Hill to throw up a rainbow.

I am not sold on Smith but in this offense, I believe his greater arm strength and, at least the threat of the deep ball, will be more effective. He was throwing it better than Hill in camp.

And NO, I won't go into another Alex Smit discussion. That is my one and only statement on him.

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by danimal:
DJ43 -

I actually think ALL teams are flawed in todays NFL. Even the top 5 or 6 who are in the Championship talks, none of of those teams are perfect to me.

Again, I just think the VERY worst place to be flawed is at QB

Yep. I recall Steve Young last year saying there are only 8-10 teams in the league that could be considered solid at the QB spot. The rest could never win the big games because of that reason.

And that is the reason I have backed off from my original 8-8 to 7-9. I just don't believe that the 49ers can win once opponents realize that Hill can't burn them long. They will load the box with eight or nine defenders, shut down the run, cover the short zones and dare Hill to throw up a rainbow.

I am not sold on Smith but in this offense, I believe his greater arm strength and, at least the threat of the deep ball, will be more effective. He was throwing it better than Hill in camp.

And NO, I won't go into another Alex Smit discussion. That is my one and only statement on him.

I think of a typical NFL season like this in terms of QB's

A.
10-15(usually about 12) Teams are set at QB. They are good enough and barring injuries are set for the next few years at least. I include the elite QB's in this group also

B.
5-7 Teams are satisfied with their QB. They are not looking to replace him anytime soon, they have a value contract and usually excel in other areas so they hope to win by QB management

C.
5-10 Teams looking for suns not to set or suns to rise. They either have a once great QB and are hoping for a revival season. Or they have a young kid with promise or at least a fat paycheck, and basically have to see development seasons out

D.
5-7 Teams are stuck with a bad QB. These teams are usually in some kind of limbo. Maybe they can't afford a new investment into a big name QB. Maybe the over estimate their other areas, maybe they over estimate their QB's. Maybe ownership can't decide to start a new rebuild or not or keep fans happy with 7 to 9 win seasons

I think the 2005-2007 Niners were group C, since then they have been group D.

[ Edited by danimal on Sep 8, 2009 at 14:07:41 ]

Originally posted by danimal:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by danimal:
DJ43 -

I actually think ALL teams are flawed in todays NFL. Even the top 5 or 6 who are in the Championship talks, none of of those teams are perfect to me.

Again, I just think the VERY worst place to be flawed is at QB

Yep. I recall Steve Young last year saying there are only 8-10 teams in the league that could be considered solid at the QB spot. The rest could never win the big games because of that reason.

And that is the reason I have backed off from my original 8-8 to 7-9. I just don't believe that the 49ers can win once opponents realize that Hill can't burn them long. They will load the box with eight or nine defenders, shut down the run, cover the short zones and dare Hill to throw up a rainbow.

I am not sold on Smith but in this offense, I believe his greater arm strength and, at least the threat of the deep ball, will be more effective. He was throwing it better than Hill in camp.

And NO, I won't go into another Alex Smit discussion. That is my one and only statement on him.

I think of a typical NFL season like this in terms of QB's

A.
10-15(usually about 12) Teams are set at QB. They are good enough and barring injuries are set for the next few years at least. I include the elite QB's in this group also

B.
5-7 Teams are satisfied with their QB. They are not looking to replace him anytime soon, they have a value contract and usually excel in other areas so they hope to win by QB management

C.
5-10 Teams looking for suns not to set or suns to rise. They either have a once great QB and are hoping for a revival season. Or they have a young kid with promise or at least a fat paycheck, and basically have to see development seasons out

D.
5-7 Teams are stuck with a bad QB. These teams are usually in some kind of limbo. Maybe they can't afford a new investment into a big name QB. Maybe the over estimate their other areas, maybe they over estimate their QB's. Maybe ownership can't decide to start a new rebuild or not or keep fans happy with 7 to 9 win seasons

I think the 2005-2007 Niners were group C, since then they have been group D.

At the risk of a thread jack, but just gain some perspective on your POV; who do you consider elite QBs and who are the ones good enough to contribute to winning a Super Bowl if the talent around them is good?

Now that the team is set at 53 i will do the game improvement index again. One thing i realized is how close we were to 9-7 last year despite everything. Added Pashos and an index for the GM since we didn't sign our first pick yet.

1) I don't see Raye making a Martz mistake like the one that cost us the AZ game.

2) In the Miami game 2nd half...we had their defense on their heels..very tired...hands on hips trying to get a breath...and instead of running it down their throat...we started passing, and a couple of series of incompletions gave them time to recover....that shouldn't happen in a run oriented offense...so here we go:

Summary: Improvement of 1.35 games from 7-9 finish but not accounting for injuries and schedule. So range from 8-8 to 9-7. Biggest deal was Pashos signing to fill a big hole. Optimistic now that we will have a real power run attack. The Cardinal game will be the first time this preseaon/season that we have all starters healty and back on the OL. If Snyder struggles then look to see Pashos starting.

1. Offense Index +.85

Full Year of Shawn Hill and no JTO (Hill has had few preseason game snaps
and hasn't looked good...so holding this even as JTO had won his first two games
Power running game with no more 7 step drops and a run oriented OL = +0.5
An improved 2nd string rotation (Coffee) + .15
Emergence of Tight End in a Raye Offense +.2
No Change in WR composition/impact unknown for Jones +0
Pashos....gets us ahead of last hr for 2nd team OT rotation +0
(0 because Sims is still on the team as 2nd team on other side)

2. Defense +1.0

Full Year of Manusky 3-4 and no Nolan Hybrid + 0.5
Full year of Harylson vs half last season (8 sacks) +.25
Still have Lawson..no improment noted - .25
ILB...great tandem but 2nd team is rookie and Ulbrich still on team +0
CB...Will Clements have a solid season..will Spencer be as good as Harris +0
Safeties....Will Goldshone improve enough to keep Roman on bench + .25
Emergence of Reggie Smith long with more turnovers +.25
Emergence of Balmer ? (not rated, would be plus if he shows strong this year)

3. Special Teams -.5

If we judge by preseason we have seriously regressed. However, this may
be because of 2nd/3rd string players...still, we didn't look any better against
San Diego..Because we were 5th ranked last year...I look for us to fall this year


4. Head Coach/Coaching +.5

Singletary is not Nolan...everything he has done so far is promising.....
Raye is fitting offense to team unlike what Martz did
Rathman is going to get everything out of Gore/Norris/Coffee
Forester will be a full year improvement over the sitaution last year
Manusky is free from Nolan and has a full season to work the defense into a
solid 3-4

5. General Manager.....-.5

Good Draft potential but failed to get #1 pick in camp...might fail to sign period.
He did not appear to have done the due diligence on Crabtree...This organization has failed since the 1994 1st round draft of Bryant Young to draft a ProBowl Player outside of Willis. Staley and Davis and Manny are starting but have not met expectations yet. We will not achieve a build thru the draft with this kind of track record.. Our GM needed to turn that around this year...and it hasn't happened yet

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by danimal:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by danimal:
DJ43 -

I actually think ALL teams are flawed in todays NFL. Even the top 5 or 6 who are in the Championship talks, none of of those teams are perfect to me.

Again, I just think the VERY worst place to be flawed is at QB

Yep. I recall Steve Young last year saying there are only 8-10 teams in the league that could be considered solid at the QB spot. The rest could never win the big games because of that reason.

And that is the reason I have backed off from my original 8-8 to 7-9. I just don't believe that the 49ers can win once opponents realize that Hill can't burn them long. They will load the box with eight or nine defenders, shut down the run, cover the short zones and dare Hill to throw up a rainbow.

I am not sold on Smith but in this offense, I believe his greater arm strength and, at least the threat of the deep ball, will be more effective. He was throwing it better than Hill in camp.

And NO, I won't go into another Alex Smit discussion. That is my one and only statement on him.

I think of a typical NFL season like this in terms of QB's

A.
10-15(usually about 12) Teams are set at QB. They are good enough and barring injuries are set for the next few years at least. I include the elite QB's in this group also

B.
5-7 Teams are satisfied with their QB. They are not looking to replace him anytime soon, they have a value contract and usually excel in other areas so they hope to win by QB management

C.
5-10 Teams looking for suns not to set or suns to rise. They either have a once great QB and are hoping for a revival season. Or they have a young kid with promise or at least a fat paycheck, and basically have to see development seasons out

D.
5-7 Teams are stuck with a bad QB. These teams are usually in some kind of limbo. Maybe they can't afford a new investment into a big name QB. Maybe the over estimate their other areas, maybe they over estimate their QB's. Maybe ownership can't decide to start a new rebuild or not or keep fans happy with 7 to 9 win seasons

I think the 2005-2007 Niners were group C, since then they have been group D.

At the risk of a thread jack, but just gain some perspective on your POV; who do you consider elite QBs and who are the ones good enough to contribute to winning a Super Bowl if the talent around them is good?

I don't think this is thread jacking, because 90% of the pundits lay 90% of their pessimism solely on the QB position.

my .02
Group A 12
Elites:
Brady, Brees, Peyton, Rivers
Goods:
McNabb, Roeth, Eli, Palmer, Romo, Rodgers, Warner, Cutler

Group B 5
Collins, Delhomme, Hasselbeck, Schaub, Pennington

Group C 9
Flacco, Ryan, Favre(sunset), Sanchez, Edwards, Cassel, Russell, Quinn, Stafford

Group D 6
Garrard, Hill, Orton, Leftwich, Bulger, Campbell

[ Edited by danimal on Sep 8, 2009 at 15:30:21 ]

Originally posted by danimal:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by danimal:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by danimal:
DJ43 -

I actually think ALL teams are flawed in todays NFL. Even the top 5 or 6 who are in the Championship talks, none of of those teams are perfect to me.

Again, I just think the VERY worst place to be flawed is at QB

Yep. I recall Steve Young last year saying there are only 8-10 teams in the league that could be considered solid at the QB spot. The rest could never win the big games because of that reason.

And that is the reason I have backed off from my original 8-8 to 7-9. I just don't believe that the 49ers can win once opponents realize that Hill can't burn them long. They will load the box with eight or nine defenders, shut down the run, cover the short zones and dare Hill to throw up a rainbow.

I am not sold on Smith but in this offense, I believe his greater arm strength and, at least the threat of the deep ball, will be more effective. He was throwing it better than Hill in camp.

And NO, I won't go into another Alex Smit discussion. That is my one and only statement on him.

I think of a typical NFL season like this in terms of QB's

A.
10-15(usually about 12) Teams are set at QB. They are good enough and barring injuries are set for the next few years at least. I include the elite QB's in this group also

B.
5-7 Teams are satisfied with their QB. They are not looking to replace him anytime soon, they have a value contract and usually excel in other areas so they hope to win by QB management

C.
5-10 Teams looking for suns not to set or suns to rise. They either have a once great QB and are hoping for a revival season. Or they have a young kid with promise or at least a fat paycheck, and basically have to see development seasons out

D.
5-7 Teams are stuck with a bad QB. These teams are usually in some kind of limbo. Maybe they can't afford a new investment into a big name QB. Maybe the over estimate their other areas, maybe they over estimate their QB's. Maybe ownership can't decide to start a new rebuild or not or keep fans happy with 7 to 9 win seasons

I think the 2005-2007 Niners were group C, since then they have been group D.

At the risk of a thread jack, but just gain some perspective on your POV; who do you consider elite QBs and who are the ones good enough to contribute to winning a Super Bowl if the talent around them is good?

I don't think this is thread jacking, because 90% of the pundits lay 90% of their pessimism solely on the QB position.

my .02
Group A 12
Elites:
Brady, Brees, Peyton, Rivers
Goods:
McNabb, Roeth, Eli, Palmer, Romo, Rodgers, Warner, Cutler

Group B 5
Collins, Delhomme, Hasselbeck, Schaub, Pennington

Group C 9
Flacco, Ryan, Favre(sunset), Sanchez, Edwards, Cassel, Russell, Quinn, Stafford

Group D 6
Garrard, Hill, Orton, Leftwich, Bulger, Campbell

Interesting. We're not too far off overall.

I would switch Warner for Rivers in the first group. Warner is still playing at HOF level and Rivers hasn't yet. You throw in the "next 2-3 years" as a qualifier and Warner may not still be there but he is now, IMO.

I see a big drop off from those first four to the "good" group below them. All have significant flaws that keep them out of a top grouping for me, with the possible exception of Rivers. He has shown me more than any of the rest of the McNabb, Ben, etc., group.

Hasselback is the standout in his group and Group C is a "jury still out" bunch.

As to the rest of them, I would drop Collins a notch and raise Garrard up one and leave the rest for the buzzards.

So how many of those guys could you put on the 49ers and expect their record to improve by 3 games - that is my measure of a QB that makes a difference.

My answer is; only Peyton, Brady, Brees and Warner.

Aaron Rodgers > Rivers

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by danimal:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by danimal:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by danimal:
DJ43 -

I actually think ALL teams are flawed in todays NFL. Even the top 5 or 6 who are in the Championship talks, none of of those teams are perfect to me.

Again, I just think the VERY worst place to be flawed is at QB

Yep. I recall Steve Young last year saying there are only 8-10 teams in the league that could be considered solid at the QB spot. The rest could never win the big games because of that reason.

And that is the reason I have backed off from my original 8-8 to 7-9. I just don't believe that the 49ers can win once opponents realize that Hill can't burn them long. They will load the box with eight or nine defenders, shut down the run, cover the short zones and dare Hill to throw up a rainbow.

I am not sold on Smith but in this offense, I believe his greater arm strength and, at least the threat of the deep ball, will be more effective. He was throwing it better than Hill in camp.

And NO, I won't go into another Alex Smit discussion. That is my one and only statement on him.

I think of a typical NFL season like this in terms of QB's

A.
10-15(usually about 12) Teams are set at QB. They are good enough and barring injuries are set for the next few years at least. I include the elite QB's in this group also

B.
5-7 Teams are satisfied with their QB. They are not looking to replace him anytime soon, they have a value contract and usually excel in other areas so they hope to win by QB management

C.
5-10 Teams looking for suns not to set or suns to rise. They either have a once great QB and are hoping for a revival season. Or they have a young kid with promise or at least a fat paycheck, and basically have to see development seasons out

D.
5-7 Teams are stuck with a bad QB. These teams are usually in some kind of limbo. Maybe they can't afford a new investment into a big name QB. Maybe the over estimate their other areas, maybe they over estimate their QB's. Maybe ownership can't decide to start a new rebuild or not or keep fans happy with 7 to 9 win seasons

I think the 2005-2007 Niners were group C, since then they have been group D.

At the risk of a thread jack, but just gain some perspective on your POV; who do you consider elite QBs and who are the ones good enough to contribute to winning a Super Bowl if the talent around them is good?

I don't think this is thread jacking, because 90% of the pundits lay 90% of their pessimism solely on the QB position.

my .02
Group A 12
Elites:
Brady, Brees, Peyton, Rivers
Goods:
McNabb, Roeth, Eli, Palmer, Romo, Rodgers, Warner, Cutler

Group B 5
Collins, Delhomme, Hasselbeck, Schaub, Pennington

Group C 9
Flacco, Ryan, Favre(sunset), Sanchez, Edwards, Cassel, Russell, Quinn, Stafford

Group D 6
Garrard, Hill, Orton, Leftwich, Bulger, Campbell

Interesting. We're not too far off overall.

I would switch Warner for Rivers in the first group. Warner is still playing at HOF level and Rivers hasn't yet. You throw in the "next 2-3 years" as a qualifier and Warner may not still be there but he is now, IMO.

I see a big drop off from those first four to the "good" group below them. All have significant flaws that keep them out of a top grouping for me, with the possible exception of Rivers. He has shown me more than any of the rest of the McNabb, Ben, etc., group.

Hasselback is the standout in his group and Group C is a "jury still out" bunch.

As to the rest of them, I would drop Collins a notch and raise Garrard up one and leave the rest for the buzzards.

So how many of those guys could you put on the 49ers and expect their record to improve by 3 games - that is my measure of a QB that makes a difference.

My answer is; only Peyton, Brady, Brees and Warner.

I can't argue with any of that.