Realistic Expectations for this season

Originally posted by WINiner:

Originally posted by dj43:
There are roughly 20 teams in the NFL with generally the same overall talent level as the 49ers. They all have the capability of equal records. The difference is not in the talent level of the players but in who is lost to injury and which team gets a lucky bounce at a critical point in the game.

If the 49ers stay healthy and get that lucky break, they could win 9, maybe even 10 games.

If they lose Willis or Gore at some early point in the year and the ball bounces the wrong way, they could be 4-12.

That is the way it is in the NFL where parity/mediocrity is the rule of the day. The 49ers are just like every other one of those 20 +/- teams. I would bet that if you go to their fan boards, they are saying about the same thing as this one right now.

This league is carefully crafted to build a large number of teams that fit into the same notch. The league doesn't want 6 or 7 killer teams that dominate every game. It wants 20-22 teams that slug it out to see whose 9-7 or 8-8 team will get into the wild card game in the last two weeks.

That is realistic.

Simple explanation, but even then it's not quite right.

Within those 20 teams there are varying degrees of incompitance, or inability to get into that top tier or 10-12 teams who are true contenders. The Niners are at the bottom of the 1st group. We are a far way away from being true contenders.

I would break up the league into 3 groups, almosy evenly numbered groups. There is the "Contender" group which consists of about 10 teams that have true aspirations of getting to the SB at the end of the year. There is the "Maybe" group which is the group that could graduate a team or two into that contender group if things go right. Then there is the "losers" group, comprised of teams that have little to no chance of drafting in the back 1/2 of each round. The Niners are currently, and have been for many years, in group 3.

Three groups works for me but there are not 10 teams competing for a spot in the Super Bowl- there are 5-6 at the most. Patriots, Eagles, Giants, Steelers, Chargers, and perhaps the Vikings this year, are on that list.

Similarly, there are 5-6 bottom feeders like Oakland, St Louis, Kansas City, Denver and Detroit that have no chance for even mediocrity this year. Fortunately the 49ers are not in that group this season. They HAVE been in that group but no longer.

That leaves 20-22 teams in the middle. I don't care to debate where the 49ers are in that group because history says the factors I noted above make it a very volatile and unpredictable mix.

I think there are a lot of great points made thus far (dj43 among others), and it does seem that the 49ers can end up anywhere from 10-6 to 4-12 factoring in injuries, luck, and a relatively weak division.

Yet I have to agree with ZRF80. Jimmy Raye is a pivotal figure for the 49ers success this year and possibly the next few years. Do you want to place your faith in a successful season on a guy who has a long track record of mediocrity? Are you content or excited to watch a 7-9 team that averages 175 yards per game passing?

Anyway, I'm a newb but I've been following this site and the board for years. This is a great group of fans and I enjoy reading the insights and rants. To fill in the void the week before the first game I wrote an article on Jimmy Raye that is good for a few laughs, I hope you guys will check it out!

http://sleeperpick.wordpress.com/2009/09/08/red-grange-where-art-thou-the-jimmy-raye-experience/

I truly have no expectations...I just don't know.

I truly have no expectations...I just don't know.

If I say the Cardinals will once again make the Superbowl, "realists" will say no even though they were just in the Superbowl AND almost won it.

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by WINiner:

Originally posted by dj43:
There are roughly 20 teams in the NFL with generally the same overall talent level as the 49ers. They all have the capability of equal records. The difference is not in the talent level of the players but in who is lost to injury and which team gets a lucky bounce at a critical point in the game.

If the 49ers stay healthy and get that lucky break, they could win 9, maybe even 10 games.

If they lose Willis or Gore at some early point in the year and the ball bounces the wrong way, they could be 4-12.

That is the way it is in the NFL where parity/mediocrity is the rule of the day. The 49ers are just like every other one of those 20 +/- teams. I would bet that if you go to their fan boards, they are saying about the same thing as this one right now.

This league is carefully crafted to build a large number of teams that fit into the same notch. The league doesn't want 6 or 7 killer teams that dominate every game. It wants 20-22 teams that slug it out to see whose 9-7 or 8-8 team will get into the wild card game in the last two weeks.

That is realistic.

Simple explanation, but even then it's not quite right.

Within those 20 teams there are varying degrees of incompitance, or inability to get into that top tier or 10-12 teams who are true contenders. The Niners are at the bottom of the 1st group. We are a far way away from being true contenders.

I would break up the league into 3 groups, almosy evenly numbered groups. There is the "Contender" group which consists of about 10 teams that have true aspirations of getting to the SB at the end of the year. There is the "Maybe" group which is the group that could graduate a team or two into that contender group if things go right. Then there is the "losers" group, comprised of teams that have little to no chance of drafting in the back 1/2 of each round. The Niners are currently, and have been for many years, in group 3.

Three groups works for me but there are not 10 teams competing for a spot in the Super Bowl- there are 5-6 at the most. Patriots, Eagles, Giants, Steelers, Chargers, and perhaps the Vikings this year, are on that list.

Similarly, there are 5-6 bottom feeders like Oakland, St Louis, Kansas City, Denver and Detroit that have no chance for even mediocrity this year. Fortunately the 49ers are not in that group this season. They HAVE been in that group but no longer.

That leaves 20-22 teams in the middle. I don't care to debate where the 49ers are in that group because history says the factors I noted above make it a very volatile and unpredictable mix.

We will have to agree to disagree on this point. I think this team is likely to be well below expectations. I do not believe S. Hill is anything more then a BU and likely to be injured by week 4. I don't believe that Manusky will be able to achieve a consistent PR in light of our lack of PR talent regardless of scheme. I don not believe that Norris will be as effective as he was the 1st time through with Gore. I do not believe that Raye will bring anything more then an obvious, unimaginative offense.

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by WINiner:

Originally posted by dj43:
There are roughly 20 teams in the NFL with generally the same overall talent level as the 49ers. They all have the capability of equal records. The difference is not in the talent level of the players but in who is lost to injury and which team gets a lucky bounce at a critical point in the game.

If the 49ers stay healthy and get that lucky break, they could win 9, maybe even 10 games.

If they lose Willis or Gore at some early point in the year and the ball bounces the wrong way, they could be 4-12.

That is the way it is in the NFL where parity/mediocrity is the rule of the day. The 49ers are just like every other one of those 20 +/- teams. I would bet that if you go to their fan boards, they are saying about the same thing as this one right now.

This league is carefully crafted to build a large number of teams that fit into the same notch. The league doesn't want 6 or 7 killer teams that dominate every game. It wants 20-22 teams that slug it out to see whose 9-7 or 8-8 team will get into the wild card game in the last two weeks.

That is realistic.

Simple explanation, but even then it's not quite right.

Within those 20 teams there are varying degrees of incompitance, or inability to get into that top tier or 10-12 teams who are true contenders. The Niners are at the bottom of the 1st group. We are a far way away from being true contenders.

I would break up the league into 3 groups, almosy evenly numbered groups. There is the "Contender" group which consists of about 10 teams that have true aspirations of getting to the SB at the end of the year. There is the "Maybe" group which is the group that could graduate a team or two into that contender group if things go right. Then there is the "losers" group, comprised of teams that have little to no chance of drafting in the back 1/2 of each round. The Niners are currently, and have been for many years, in group 3.

Three groups works for me but there are not 10 teams competing for a spot in the Super Bowl- there are 5-6 at the most. Patriots, Eagles, Giants, Steelers, Chargers, and perhaps the Vikings this year, are on that list.

Similarly, there are 5-6 bottom feeders like Oakland, St Louis, Kansas City, Denver and Detroit that have no chance for even mediocrity this year. Fortunately the 49ers are not in that group this season. They HAVE been in that group but no longer.

That leaves 20-22 teams in the middle. I don't care to debate where the 49ers are in that group because history says the factors I noted above make it a very volatile and unpredictable mix.

I agree with you that there is a group of 20-22 teams who are middle tier teams. And I agree that the Niners are one of them. But while we compare with 20 other teams in overall talent.....not all overall talent is broken down equally. So why we might have a better RB and MLB than most of the 20 other teams, they have a better QB and WR combo. Many NFL fans believe that a good QB is the best way to divide the middle tier teams. I am one of them. So while these 22 teams duke it out, and yes bounces of the balls and injuries are going to play a factor, we are one of the few middle tier teams who are going to need a lot of luck, because our passing game is so pathetic.

I'm guessing 8-8 or 9-7 if they play to the best of their ability.

I don't believe a bunch of motivational speaches about being fysical with an F is going to make up for lack of talent at key positions - most notably QB & defensive line

Originally posted by WINiner:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by WINiner:

Originally posted by dj43:
There are roughly 20 teams in the NFL with generally the same overall talent level as the 49ers. They all have the capability of equal records. The difference is not in the talent level of the players but in who is lost to injury and which team gets a lucky bounce at a critical point in the game.

If the 49ers stay healthy and get that lucky break, they could win 9, maybe even 10 games.

If they lose Willis or Gore at some early point in the year and the ball bounces the wrong way, they could be 4-12.

That is the way it is in the NFL where parity/mediocrity is the rule of the day. The 49ers are just like every other one of those 20 +/- teams. I would bet that if you go to their fan boards, they are saying about the same thing as this one right now.

This league is carefully crafted to build a large number of teams that fit into the same notch. The league doesn't want 6 or 7 killer teams that dominate every game. It wants 20-22 teams that slug it out to see whose 9-7 or 8-8 team will get into the wild card game in the last two weeks.

That is realistic.

Simple explanation, but even then it's not quite right.

Within those 20 teams there are varying degrees of incompitance, or inability to get into that top tier or 10-12 teams who are true contenders. The Niners are at the bottom of the 1st group. We are a far way away from being true contenders.

I would break up the league into 3 groups, almosy evenly numbered groups. There is the "Contender" group which consists of about 10 teams that have true aspirations of getting to the SB at the end of the year. There is the "Maybe" group which is the group that could graduate a team or two into that contender group if things go right. Then there is the "losers" group, comprised of teams that have little to no chance of drafting in the back 1/2 of each round. The Niners are currently, and have been for many years, in group 3.

Three groups works for me but there are not 10 teams competing for a spot in the Super Bowl- there are 5-6 at the most. Patriots, Eagles, Giants, Steelers, Chargers, and perhaps the Vikings this year, are on that list.

Similarly, there are 5-6 bottom feeders like Oakland, St Louis, Kansas City, Denver and Detroit that have no chance for even mediocrity this year. Fortunately the 49ers are not in that group this season. They HAVE been in that group but no longer.

That leaves 20-22 teams in the middle. I don't care to debate where the 49ers are in that group because history says the factors I noted above make it a very volatile and unpredictable mix.

We will have to agree to disagree on this point. I think this team is likely to be well below expectations. I do not believe S. Hill is anything more then a BU and likely to be injured by week 4. I don't believe that Manusky will be able to achieve a consistent PR in light of our lack of PR talent regardless of scheme. I don not believe that Norris will be as effective as he was the 1st time through with Gore. I do not believe that Raye will bring anything more then an obvious, unimaginative offense.

Disagreement is OK. That is what makes this board interesting...at least some of the time. At least you have some valid points of discussion.

Here is where I agree with you: Hill is not the final answer but he won't kill the team the same way JTO did.

The lack of a pass rush will hurt. The only question is; will more time spent in the same scheme help guys who haven't really brought it before. My experience is that good coaching will help. Will it help enough? That's why they play instead of talk.

Don't know if Norris can do it again.

Raye may not be able to create offense but Martz wasn't the most helpful at times either.

In the end, my expectation is that they might win one more game than last year, two if they catch some breaks.

EDIT: In the thread on power rankins that just started, their top and bottom 6 were virtually identical with mine.

[ Edited by dj43 on Sep 8, 2009 at 12:27:44 ]

Originally posted by danimal:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by WINiner:

Originally posted by dj43:
There are roughly 20 teams in the NFL with generally the same overall talent level as the 49ers. They all have the capability of equal records. The difference is not in the talent level of the players but in who is lost to injury and which team gets a lucky bounce at a critical point in the game.

If the 49ers stay healthy and get that lucky break, they could win 9, maybe even 10 games.

If they lose Willis or Gore at some early point in the year and the ball bounces the wrong way, they could be 4-12.

That is the way it is in the NFL where parity/mediocrity is the rule of the day. The 49ers are just like every other one of those 20 +/- teams. I would bet that if you go to their fan boards, they are saying about the same thing as this one right now.

This league is carefully crafted to build a large number of teams that fit into the same notch. The league doesn't want 6 or 7 killer teams that dominate every game. It wants 20-22 teams that slug it out to see whose 9-7 or 8-8 team will get into the wild card game in the last two weeks.

That is realistic.

Simple explanation, but even then it's not quite right.

Within those 20 teams there are varying degrees of incompitance, or inability to get into that top tier or 10-12 teams who are true contenders. The Niners are at the bottom of the 1st group. We are a far way away from being true contenders.

I would break up the league into 3 groups, almosy evenly numbered groups. There is the "Contender" group which consists of about 10 teams that have true aspirations of getting to the SB at the end of the year. There is the "Maybe" group which is the group that could graduate a team or two into that contender group if things go right. Then there is the "losers" group, comprised of teams that have little to no chance of drafting in the back 1/2 of each round. The Niners are currently, and have been for many years, in group 3.

Three groups works for me but there are not 10 teams competing for a spot in the Super Bowl- there are 5-6 at the most. Patriots, Eagles, Giants, Steelers, Chargers, and perhaps the Vikings this year, are on that list.

Similarly, there are 5-6 bottom feeders like Oakland, St Louis, Kansas City, Denver and Detroit that have no chance for even mediocrity this year. Fortunately the 49ers are not in that group this season. They HAVE been in that group but no longer.

That leaves 20-22 teams in the middle. I don't care to debate where the 49ers are in that group because history says the factors I noted above make it a very volatile and unpredictable mix.

I agree with you that there is a group of 20-22 teams who are middle tier teams. And I agree that the Niners are one of them. But while we compare with 20 other teams in overall talent.....not all overall talent is broken down equally. So why we might have a better RB and MLB than most of the 20 other teams, they have a better QB and WR combo. Many NFL fans believe that a good QB is the best way to divide the middle tier teams. I am one of them. So while these 22 teams duke it out, and yes bounces of the balls and injuries are going to play a factor, we are one of the few middle tier teams who are going to need a lot of luck, because our passing game is so pathetic.

You make a good point about QB play. So what other team in that mass of 20 do you see with solid quarterbacking and a good receiving core?

DISCLAIMER: I debated putting AZ in the top 6, but ultimately felt they were not quite at the same level as the ones I noted.

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by danimal:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by WINiner:

Originally posted by dj43:
There are roughly 20 teams in the NFL with generally the same overall talent level as the 49ers. They all have the capability of equal records. The difference is not in the talent level of the players but in who is lost to injury and which team gets a lucky bounce at a critical point in the game.

If the 49ers stay healthy and get that lucky break, they could win 9, maybe even 10 games.

If they lose Willis or Gore at some early point in the year and the ball bounces the wrong way, they could be 4-12.

That is the way it is in the NFL where parity/mediocrity is the rule of the day. The 49ers are just like every other one of those 20 +/- teams. I would bet that if you go to their fan boards, they are saying about the same thing as this one right now.

This league is carefully crafted to build a large number of teams that fit into the same notch. The league doesn't want 6 or 7 killer teams that dominate every game. It wants 20-22 teams that slug it out to see whose 9-7 or 8-8 team will get into the wild card game in the last two weeks.

That is realistic.

Simple explanation, but even then it's not quite right.

Within those 20 teams there are varying degrees of incompitance, or inability to get into that top tier or 10-12 teams who are true contenders. The Niners are at the bottom of the 1st group. We are a far way away from being true contenders.

I would break up the league into 3 groups, almosy evenly numbered groups. There is the "Contender" group which consists of about 10 teams that have true aspirations of getting to the SB at the end of the year. There is the "Maybe" group which is the group that could graduate a team or two into that contender group if things go right. Then there is the "losers" group, comprised of teams that have little to no chance of drafting in the back 1/2 of each round. The Niners are currently, and have been for many years, in group 3.

Three groups works for me but there are not 10 teams competing for a spot in the Super Bowl- there are 5-6 at the most. Patriots, Eagles, Giants, Steelers, Chargers, and perhaps the Vikings this year, are on that list.

Similarly, there are 5-6 bottom feeders like Oakland, St Louis, Kansas City, Denver and Detroit that have no chance for even mediocrity this year. Fortunately the 49ers are not in that group this season. They HAVE been in that group but no longer.

That leaves 20-22 teams in the middle. I don't care to debate where the 49ers are in that group because history says the factors I noted above make it a very volatile and unpredictable mix.

I agree with you that there is a group of 20-22 teams who are middle tier teams. And I agree that the Niners are one of them. But while we compare with 20 other teams in overall talent.....not all overall talent is broken down equally. So why we might have a better RB and MLB than most of the 20 other teams, they have a better QB and WR combo. Many NFL fans believe that a good QB is the best way to divide the middle tier teams. I am one of them. So while these 22 teams duke it out, and yes bounces of the balls and injuries are going to play a factor, we are one of the few middle tier teams who are going to need a lot of luck, because our passing game is so pathetic.

You make a good point about QB play. So what other team in that mass of 20 do you see with solid quarterbacking and a good receiving core?

DISCLAIMER: I debated putting AZ in the top 6, but ultimately felt they were not quite at the same level as the ones I noted.

off the top of my head, I know some people would want some teams to swap groups, but the point is that MOST of the other mid tier teams have a far better passing team on paper than the Niners, whether that be in a QB vs QB comparison, WR to WR comparison or both

Mid Tier - Good Passing Game
Green Bay
Dallas
Arizona
New Orleans
Atlanta
Chicago
Cincinatti
Seattle
Minnesota
NY Jets
Houston

Mid Tier - Bad Passing Game
Baltimore
Carolina
Washington
Jacksonville
Buffalo
San Francisco
Miami
Oakland

[ Edited by danimal on Sep 8, 2009 at 13:15:13 ]

Originally posted by danimal:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by danimal:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by WINiner:

Originally posted by dj43:
There are roughly 20 teams in the NFL with generally the same overall talent level as the 49ers. They all have the capability of equal records. The difference is not in the talent level of the players but in who is lost to injury and which team gets a lucky bounce at a critical point in the game.

If the 49ers stay healthy and get that lucky break, they could win 9, maybe even 10 games.

If they lose Willis or Gore at some early point in the year and the ball bounces the wrong way, they could be 4-12.

That is the way it is in the NFL where parity/mediocrity is the rule of the day. The 49ers are just like every other one of those 20 +/- teams. I would bet that if you go to their fan boards, they are saying about the same thing as this one right now.

This league is carefully crafted to build a large number of teams that fit into the same notch. The league doesn't want 6 or 7 killer teams that dominate every game. It wants 20-22 teams that slug it out to see whose 9-7 or 8-8 team will get into the wild card game in the last two weeks.

That is realistic.

Simple explanation, but even then it's not quite right.

Within those 20 teams there are varying degrees of incompitance, or inability to get into that top tier or 10-12 teams who are true contenders. The Niners are at the bottom of the 1st group. We are a far way away from being true contenders.

I would break up the league into 3 groups, almosy evenly numbered groups. There is the "Contender" group which consists of about 10 teams that have true aspirations of getting to the SB at the end of the year. There is the "Maybe" group which is the group that could graduate a team or two into that contender group if things go right. Then there is the "losers" group, comprised of teams that have little to no chance of drafting in the back 1/2 of each round. The Niners are currently, and have been for many years, in group 3.

Three groups works for me but there are not 10 teams competing for a spot in the Super Bowl- there are 5-6 at the most. Patriots, Eagles, Giants, Steelers, Chargers, and perhaps the Vikings this year, are on that list.

Similarly, there are 5-6 bottom feeders like Oakland, St Louis, Kansas City, Denver and Detroit that have no chance for even mediocrity this year. Fortunately the 49ers are not in that group this season. They HAVE been in that group but no longer.

That leaves 20-22 teams in the middle. I don't care to debate where the 49ers are in that group because history says the factors I noted above make it a very volatile and unpredictable mix.

I agree with you that there is a group of 20-22 teams who are middle tier teams. And I agree that the Niners are one of them. But while we compare with 20 other teams in overall talent.....not all overall talent is broken down equally. So why we might have a better RB and MLB than most of the 20 other teams, they have a better QB and WR combo. Many NFL fans believe that a good QB is the best way to divide the middle tier teams. I am one of them. So while these 22 teams duke it out, and yes bounces of the balls and injuries are going to play a factor, we are one of the few middle tier teams who are going to need a lot of luck, because our passing game is so pathetic.

You make a good point about QB play. So what other team in that mass of 20 do you see with solid quarterbacking and a good receiving core?

DISCLAIMER: I debated putting AZ in the top 6, but ultimately felt they were not quite at the same level as the ones I noted.

off the top of my head, I know some people would want some teams to swap groups, but the point is that MOST of the other mid tier teams have a far better passing team on paper than the Niners, whether that be in a QB vs QB comparison, WR to WR comparison or both

Mid Tier - Good Passing Game
Green Bay
Dallas
Arizona
New Orleans
Atlanta
Chicago
Cincinatti
Seattle
Minnesota
NY Jets
Houston

Mid Tier - Bad Passing Game
Baltimore
Carolina
Washington
Jacksonville
Buffalo
San Francisco
Miami
Oakland

Since you said it was off the top of your head, I won't quibble too many details.

The point is, to be a top team you must have good balance. All of the teams you listed are seriously flawed teams with the exception of AZ and Minne. In order for any of them to really excel, they have to have some things go their way...and yes, good QB play is one of them.

But, that is why those middle 20-22 teams make it so interesting for so long in the season. One of them will surprise with a 10-6 season. Another will disappoint with 4-12. So it is...

DJ43 -

I actually think ALL teams are flawed in todays NFL. Even the top 5 or 6 who are in the Championship talks, none of of those teams are perfect to me.

Again, I just think the VERY worst place to be flawed is at QB

Super Bowl !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!













will be held sometime in Feb

I realistically expect to consume multiple cases of beer and many many hot wings through out this season. I also realistically expect to curse at my TV multiple times throughout a game and possibly throw something at the wall during at least one game. Now those are some real expectations