Originally posted by WINiner:
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by WINiner:
Originally posted by dj43:
There are roughly 20 teams in the NFL with generally the same overall talent level as the 49ers. They all have the capability of equal records. The difference is not in the talent level of the players but in who is lost to injury and which team gets a lucky bounce at a critical point in the game.
If the 49ers stay healthy and get that lucky break, they could win 9, maybe even 10 games.
If they lose Willis or Gore at some early point in the year and the ball bounces the wrong way, they could be 4-12.
That is the way it is in the NFL where parity/mediocrity is the rule of the day. The 49ers are just like every other one of those 20 +/- teams. I would bet that if you go to their fan boards, they are saying about the same thing as this one right now.
This league is carefully crafted to build a large number of teams that fit into the same notch. The league doesn't want 6 or 7 killer teams that dominate every game. It wants 20-22 teams that slug it out to see whose 9-7 or 8-8 team will get into the wild card game in the last two weeks.
That is realistic.
Simple explanation, but even then it's not quite right.
Within those 20 teams there are varying degrees of incompitance, or inability to get into that top tier or 10-12 teams who are true contenders. The Niners are at the bottom of the 1st group. We are a far way away from being true contenders.
I would break up the league into 3 groups, almosy evenly numbered groups. There is the "Contender" group which consists of about 10 teams that have true aspirations of getting to the SB at the end of the year. There is the "Maybe" group which is the group that could graduate a team or two into that contender group if things go right. Then there is the "losers" group, comprised of teams that have little to no chance of drafting in the back 1/2 of each round. The Niners are currently, and have been for many years, in group 3.
Three groups works for me but there are not 10 teams competing for a spot in the Super Bowl- there are 5-6 at the most. Patriots, Eagles, Giants, Steelers, Chargers, and perhaps the Vikings this year, are on that list.
Similarly, there are 5-6 bottom feeders like Oakland, St Louis, Kansas City, Denver and Detroit that have no chance for even mediocrity this year. Fortunately the 49ers are not in that group this season. They HAVE been in that group but no longer.
That leaves 20-22 teams in the middle. I don't care to debate where the 49ers are in that group because history says the factors I noted above make it a very volatile and unpredictable mix.
We will have to agree to disagree on this point. I think this team is likely to be well below expectations. I do not believe S. Hill is anything more then a BU and likely to be injured by week 4. I don't believe that Manusky will be able to achieve a consistent PR in light of our lack of PR talent regardless of scheme. I don not believe that Norris will be as effective as he was the 1st time through with Gore. I do not believe that Raye will bring anything more then an obvious, unimaginative offense.
Disagreement is OK. That is what makes this board interesting...at least some of the time. At least you have some valid points of discussion.
Here is where I agree with you: Hill is not the final answer but he won't kill the team the same way JTO did.
The lack of a pass rush will hurt. The only question is; will more time spent in the same scheme help guys who haven't really brought it before. My experience is that good coaching will help. Will it help enough? That's why they play instead of talk.
Don't know if Norris can do it again.
Raye may not be able to create offense but Martz wasn't the most helpful at times either.
In the end, my expectation is that they might win one more game than last year, two if they catch some breaks.
EDIT: In the thread on power rankins that just started, their top and bottom 6 were virtually identical with mine.
[ Edited by dj43 on Sep 8, 2009 at 12:27:44 ]
