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2009 49ers acccording to Football Outsiders...

Originally posted by Cuphalffull:
Originally posted by KasparHauser:
Football Outsiders, a statistics-based football analysis company, recently came out with their rankings and these were their predictions for the 2009 Niners:

2009 Mean Projection: 5.7 wins
On the Clock (0-3 wins): 15%
Loserville (4-6): 51%
Mediocrity (7-8): 22%
Playoff Contender (9-10): 10%
Super Bowl Contender (11+): 2%

In my opinion, these guys are very good at what they do. They "smartly" look at the stats, and take stat analysis further than any other company that I have found. If they are correct, the 2009 Niners will be bad, real bad, and have a 51% chance of winning 4-6 games.

While I think the 2009 Niners will be 10-6, 9-7, or 8-8, I trust Football Outsiders. I don't want to be a homer and disregard the stats so I am more confused than ever. I think Barrows stated it best when he said he is "cautiously optimistic" for the 2009 49ers.

Article

2% Chance of being a Super Bowl Contender? So they are saying there is a chance

HAHHAHAA
Originally posted by KasparHauser:
In 2008, Football Outsiders predicted the Falcons to win 3.5 games, and gave them a 1% chance of making the playoffs. The Falcons went 11-6.

In 2008, Football Outsiders predicted the Seahawks to win 10.5 games, and gave them a 40% chance to make the playoffs.

Boom! This was definitely worth re-posting and reconsidering. Does anyone know what chance the statistical geniuses gave that the Cards would make the Superbowl?
Originally posted by SonocoNinerFan:
Originally posted by oldman9er:
Sabrason

(1) You're just scared to put some faith in our 9ers, for fear that your little heart will be broken.

(2) You have an undisclosed bias of Mike Singletary... personally.

(3) You enjoy going against the grain just to elicit reactions from others.

(4) You enjoy going against the grain because yelling " I told you so " is more important to your e-ego than simply putting some trust in a conclusion that you couldn't possibly know with any certainty.

Either way, the fact that you are here so much and state the same things so often is puzzling. Have you nothing better to do and nowhere better to go? ( since you are so sure that SF is in for a wasted season )



It's no wonder why the "but I hope I'm wrong" caveats at the end of some posts from "The SS" (Sabrason and singfan) ring hollow.

It only rings hollow to you because you have been programmed to believe that you must be a homer to be a fan. Let me tell you this right now; the real world isn't made up of over the top homers. That kind of stuff only takes place on here. The real world is filled with highly knowledgeable fans like myself and Sabrason that are not afraid to question the seemingly abominable decisions made by their favorite organization. The real world is made up of fans that make you earn their trust. We are the fans that will decide whether or not Sing will be accepted. The organization knows that they have you guys in their back pocket. It doesn't matter what they do. You guys will accept it. On the other hand, if we give a thumbs up to Sing, then it's legit, and can be celebrated by all.
[ Edited by singfan on Jul 21, 2009 at 9:05 AM ]
Man, I hope the Football Outsiders are wrong! Everything sounds logical and has me a little worried. You never know what's going to happen.

I'd guess the Niners will be somewhere between 6-10 and 9-7. It might depend on health and luck.
Originally posted by singfan:
It only rings hollow to you because you have been programmed to believe that you must be a homer to be a fan. Let me tell you this right now; the real world isn't made up of over the top homers. That kind of stuff only takes place on here. The real world is filled with highly knowledgeable fans like myself and Sabrason that are not afraid to question the seemingly abominable decisions made by their favorite organization. The real world is made up of fans that make you earn their trust. We are the fans that will decide whether or not Sing will be accepted. The organization knows that they have you guys in their back pocket. It doesn't matter what they do. You guys will accept it. On the other hand, if we give a thumbs up to Sing, then it's legit, and can be celebrated by all.

The voices in your head don't count.
Originally posted by singfan:
Originally posted by SonocoNinerFan:
Originally posted by oldman9er:
Sabrason

(1) You're just scared to put some faith in our 9ers, for fear that your little heart will be broken.

(2) You have an undisclosed bias of Mike Singletary... personally.

(3) You enjoy going against the grain just to elicit reactions from others.

(4) You enjoy going against the grain because yelling " I told you so " is more important to your e-ego than simply putting some trust in a conclusion that you couldn't possibly know with any certainty.

Either way, the fact that you are here so much and state the same things so often is puzzling. Have you nothing better to do and nowhere better to go? ( since you are so sure that SF is in for a wasted season )



It's no wonder why the "but I hope I'm wrong" caveats at the end of some posts from "The SS" (Sabrason and singfan) ring hollow.

It only rings hollow to you because you have been programmed to believe that you must be a homer to be a fan. Let me tell you this right now; the real world isn't made up of over the top homers. That kind of stuff only takes place on here. The real world is filled with highly knowledgeable fans like myself and Sabrason that are not afraid to question the seemingly abominable decisions made by their favorite organization. The real world is made up of fans that make you earn their trust. We are the fans that will decide whether or not Sing will be accepted. The organization knows that they have you guys in their back pocket. It doesn't matter what they do. You guys will accept it. On the other hand, if we give a thumbs up to Sing, then it's legit, and can be celebrated by all.


Good stuff . . .
Originally posted by singfan:
Originally posted by SonocoNinerFan:
Originally posted by oldman9er:
Sabrason

(1) You're just scared to put some faith in our 9ers, for fear that your little heart will be broken.

(2) You have an undisclosed bias of Mike Singletary... personally.

(3) You enjoy going against the grain just to elicit reactions from others.

(4) You enjoy going against the grain because yelling " I told you so " is more important to your e-ego than simply putting some trust in a conclusion that you couldn't possibly know with any certainty.

Either way, the fact that you are here so much and state the same things so often is puzzling. Have you nothing better to do and nowhere better to go? ( since you are so sure that SF is in for a wasted season )



It's no wonder why the "but I hope I'm wrong" caveats at the end of some posts from "The SS" (Sabrason and singfan) ring hollow.

It only rings hollow to you because you have been programmed to believe that you must be a homer to be a fan. Let me tell you this right now; the real world isn't made up of over the top homers. That kind of stuff only takes place on here. The real world is filled with highly knowledgeable fans like myself and Sabrason that are not afraid to question the seemingly abominable decisions made by their favorite organization. The real world is made up of fans that make you earn their trust. We are the fans that will decide whether or not Sing will be accepted. The organization knows that they have you guys in their back pocket. It doesn't matter what they do. You guys will accept it. On the other hand, if we give a thumbs up to Sing, then it's legit, and can be celebrated by all.




Exactly, with these guys if you're not an over-the-top homer than you're a "hater" or "troll." That's the only way they see the fan base -- there is no middle ground at all. While the vast majority of the fan base (i.e those fans OUTSIDE the 'Zone) is probably hopeful that MS does well, they do not share the same blind optimism and perpetual support of MS that the homers in here do.

They are far too knowledgable and realistic to ever accept MS based on the decision of the infamous and dysfunctional ownership and a mediocre performance as interim HC for half a season. Guys like Ralph on KNBR get high ratings for a reason and it's certainly not b/c the Webzone "homers" are listening - they can't stand his realistic and objective viewpoint b/c it doesn't kiss the $$$ of anything and everything the organization does. Despite the bashing of Ralph after his excellent Jed interview by the homers in here, after listening to him for the first time it made sense to me why he rakes in those ratings.

Yeah, the organization definitely looovess these homers...there's no pressure on them to do anything different or get better b/c these guys are at least "ok" with whatever they do, mediocrity, doesn't matter. Jed could hire a baseball manager for HC and these homers would come up with reasons why it's good decision and support it.
[ Edited by Sabrason on Jul 21, 2009 at 4:14 PM ]
Originally posted by singfan:
It only rings hollow to you because you have been programmed to believe that you must be a homer to be a fan. Let me tell you this right now; the real world isn't made up of over the top homers. That kind of stuff only takes place on here. The real world is filled with highly knowledgeable fans like myself and Sabrason that are not afraid to question the seemingly abominable decisions made by their favorite organization. The real world is made up of fans that make you earn their trust. We are the fans that will decide whether or not Sing will be accepted. The organization knows that they have you guys in their back pocket. It doesn't matter what they do. You guys will accept it. On the other hand, if we give a thumbs up to Sing, then it's legit, and can be celebrated by all.

LMAO.

-9fA
Originally posted by singfan:
It only rings hollow to you because you have been programmed to believe that you must be a homer to be a fan. Let me tell you this right now; the real world isn't made up of over the top homers. That kind of stuff only takes place on here. The real world is filled with highly knowledgeable fans like myself and Sabrason that are not afraid to question the seemingly abominable decisions made by their favorite organization. The real world is made up of fans that make you earn their trust. We are the fans that will decide whether or not Sing will be accepted. The organization knows that they have you guys in their back pocket. It doesn't matter what they do. You guys will accept it. On the other hand, if we give a thumbs up to Sing, then it's legit, and can be celebrated by all.

Originally posted by Sabrason:
Exactly, with these guys if you're not an over-the-top homer than you're a "hater" or "troll." That's the only way they see the fan base -- there is no middle ground at all. While the vast majority of the fan base (i.e those fans OUTSIDE the 'Zone) is probably hopeful that MS does well, they do not share the same blind optimism and perpetual support of MS that the homers in here do.

They are far too knowledgable and realistic to ever accept MS based on the decision of the infamous and dysfunctional ownership and a mediocre performance as interim HC for half a season. Guys like Ralph on KNBR get high ratings for a reason and it's certainly not b/c the Webzone "homers" are listening - they can't stand his realistic and objective viewpoint b/c it doesn't kiss the $% of anything and everything the organization does. Despite the bashing of Ralph after the excellent Jed interview by the homers in here, after listening to him for the first time it made sense to me why he rakes in those ratings.

The organization looovess these homers...there's no pressure on them to do anything different or get better b/c these guys are at least "ok" with whatever they do, mediocrity, doesn't matter. Jed could hire a baseball manager for HC and these homers would come up with reasons why it's good decision and support it.

To both of these posts I say...

Originally posted by Apples:
"The book notes that the 49ers have not had a winning record beyond Week 3 in five years."

Damn...I didn't know that.



It's very easy to be a homer when you're unaware of the sobering reality of the team. Ignorance is bliss.
[ Edited by Sabrason on Jul 21, 2009 at 11:49 PM ]
Originally posted by Sabrason:
Originally posted by singfan:
Originally posted by SonocoNinerFan:
Originally posted by oldman9er:
Sabrason

(1) You're just scared to put some faith in our 9ers, for fear that your little heart will be broken.

(2) You have an undisclosed bias of Mike Singletary... personally.

(3) You enjoy going against the grain just to elicit reactions from others.

(4) You enjoy going against the grain because yelling " I told you so " is more important to your e-ego than simply putting some trust in a conclusion that you couldn't possibly know with any certainty.

Either way, the fact that you are here so much and state the same things so often is puzzling. Have you nothing better to do and nowhere better to go? ( since you are so sure that SF is in for a wasted season )



It's no wonder why the "but I hope I'm wrong" caveats at the end of some posts from "The SS" (Sabrason and singfan) ring hollow.

It only rings hollow to you because you have been programmed to believe that you must be a homer to be a fan. Let me tell you this right now; the real world isn't made up of over the top homers. That kind of stuff only takes place on here. The real world is filled with highly knowledgeable fans like myself and Sabrason that are not afraid to question the seemingly abominable decisions made by their favorite organization. The real world is made up of fans that make you earn their trust. We are the fans that will decide whether or not Sing will be accepted. The organization knows that they have you guys in their back pocket. It doesn't matter what they do. You guys will accept it. On the other hand, if we give a thumbs up to Sing, then it's legit, and can be celebrated by all.


Exactly, with these guys if you're not an over-the-top homer than you're a "hater" or "troll." That's the only way they see the fan base -- there is no middle ground at all. While the vast majority of the fan base (i.e those fans OUTSIDE the 'Zone) is probably hopeful that MS does well, they do not share the same blind optimism and perpetual support of MS that the homers in here do.

They are far too knowledgable and realistic to ever accept MS based on the decision of the infamous and dysfunctional ownership and a mediocre performance as interim HC for half a season. Guys like Ralph on KNBR get high ratings for a reason and it's certainly not b/c the Webzone "homers" are listening - they can't stand his realistic and objective viewpoint b/c it doesn't kiss the $$$ of anything and everything the organization does. Despite the bashing of Ralph after his excellent Jed interview by the homers in here, after listening to him for the first time it made sense to me why he rakes in those ratings.

Yeah, the organization definitely looovess these homers...there's no pressure on them to do anything different or get better b/c these guys are at least "ok" with whatever they do, mediocrity, doesn't matter. Jed could hire a baseball manager for HC and these homers would come up with reasons why it's good decision and support it.

This is a trip.

The disconnect here is total when you equate the willingness of 49er fans to give Singletary the benefit of the doubt as blind homerism for Sing as well as every move made by the organization. Is that how it is in the real world? Is it middle ground to throw a negtative spin on practically EVERY move made by a coach who's only apparent crimes are a 5-4 record, that he's a former Chicago Bear and his last name isn't Holmgren or Shannahan?

And what makes you two think that 49er fans outside the Webzone are so much different than those that come here? Did you two take a survey? It's an unprovable fantasy. I know of no other Niner fan (including family, friends, co-workers, clients, etc.) who think of Singletary in such consistently negative terms. Not even close.

BTW, Ralph Barbieri (who I listen to practically every day) was Hoovering Nolan for the better part of 2-1/2 years before finally jumping off the Rollin w/ Nolan bandwagon late in 2007. He's definitely not 100% sold on Singletary but seems willing to wait and see. Also, Kawakami stood in for Tolbert today and they talked 49ers with Maiocco . . .

Part 1

Part 2

. . . and they **gasp** didn't speak in 100% glowing terms about Singletary . . . and I didn't really disagree . . . ooohhhh . . . crazy.

What bugs the hell out of me is that I want to see the Niners succeed under Singletary simply to prove you two wrong nearly as much as to revive playoff caliber football. I hate that.

Ultimately this is all horsesheet. Wins will decide Singletary's fate. Period.
As far as the two trolls here, they have accomplished what they set out to. They have distinguished themselves quite clearly from the many faceless, anonymous posters here in the WZ. It may be all negative feelings towards them, but that's likely all they would have received in any case. So congrats to the two (or is it really just one?)... They clearly needed a big spotlight audience in their lives, and to that end, accomplished their goal.
Damn

That article makes too much damn sense!!!

On a good note, every year there are at least 2 teams who surprise everyone and there are 2 teams who fail at high expectations.
FO always emphasizes that football is much harder to predict than baseball because there is only 16 games worth of data per year. Injuries and luck have a huge influence. So sure, they missed the Falcons and the Dolphins and the Cards successes last year. They over-rated the Seahawks because they got decimated by injuries.

I was disappointed to read their prediction about the Niners for this year, but most of the points that they made were valid. More interesting was how they rated other teams. They have Seattle winning the division and the Cards regressing to a .500 team. They have the cowboys going only 8-8, which made me feel somewhat better.
Member Milestone: This is post number 2,000 for Memphis9er.
Originally posted by SonocoNinerFan:
Originally posted by Sabrason:
Originally posted by singfan:
Originally posted by SonocoNinerFan:
Originally posted by oldman9er:
Sabrason

(1) You're just scared to put some faith in our 9ers, for fear that your little heart will be broken.

(2) You have an undisclosed bias of Mike Singletary... personally.

(3) You enjoy going against the grain just to elicit reactions from others.

(4) You enjoy going against the grain because yelling " I told you so " is more important to your e-ego than simply putting some trust in a conclusion that you couldn't possibly know with any certainty.

Either way, the fact that you are here so much and state the same things so often is puzzling. Have you nothing better to do and nowhere better to go? ( since you are so sure that SF is in for a wasted season )



It's no wonder why the "but I hope I'm wrong" caveats at the end of some posts from "The SS" (Sabrason and singfan) ring hollow.

It only rings hollow to you because you have been programmed to believe that you must be a homer to be a fan. Let me tell you this right now; the real world isn't made up of over the top homers. That kind of stuff only takes place on here. The real world is filled with highly knowledgeable fans like myself and Sabrason that are not afraid to question the seemingly abominable decisions made by their favorite organization. The real world is made up of fans that make you earn their trust. We are the fans that will decide whether or not Sing will be accepted. The organization knows that they have you guys in their back pocket. It doesn't matter what they do. You guys will accept it. On the other hand, if we give a thumbs up to Sing, then it's legit, and can be celebrated by all.


Exactly, with these guys if you're not an over-the-top homer than you're a "hater" or "troll." That's the only way they see the fan base -- there is no middle ground at all. While the vast majority of the fan base (i.e those fans OUTSIDE the 'Zone) is probably hopeful that MS does well, they do not share the same blind optimism and perpetual support of MS that the homers in here do.

They are far too knowledgable and realistic to ever accept MS based on the decision of the infamous and dysfunctional ownership and a mediocre performance as interim HC for half a season. Guys like Ralph on KNBR get high ratings for a reason and it's certainly not b/c the Webzone "homers" are listening - they can't stand his realistic and objective viewpoint b/c it doesn't kiss the $$$ of anything and everything the organization does. Despite the bashing of Ralph after his excellent Jed interview by the homers in here, after listening to him for the first time it made sense to me why he rakes in those ratings.

Yeah, the organization definitely looovess these homers...there's no pressure on them to do anything different or get better b/c these guys are at least "ok" with whatever they do, mediocrity, doesn't matter. Jed could hire a baseball manager for HC and these homers would come up with reasons why it's good decision and support it.

This is a trip.

The disconnect here is total when you equate the willingness of 49er fans to give Singletary the benefit of the doubt as blind homerism for Sing as well as every move made by the organization. Is that how it is in the real world? Is it middle ground to throw a negtative spin on practically EVERY move made by a coach who's only apparent crimes are a 5-4 record, that he's a former Chicago Bear and his last name isn't Holmgren or Shannahan?

And what makes you two think that 49er fans outside the Webzone are so much different than those that come here? Did you two take a survey? It's an unprovable fantasy. I know of no other Niner fan (including family, friends, co-workers, clients, etc.) who think of Singletary in such consistently negative terms. Not even close.

BTW, Ralph Barbieri (who I listen to practically every day) was Hoovering Nolan for the better part of 2-1/2 years before finally jumping off the Rollin w/ Nolan bandwagon late in 2007. He's definitely not 100% sold on Singletary but seems willing to wait and see. Also, Kawakami stood in for Tolbert today and they talked 49ers with Maiocco . . .

Part 1

Part 2

. . . and they **gasp** didn't speak in 100% glowing terms about Singletary . . . and I didn't really disagree . . . ooohhhh . . . crazy.

What bugs the hell out of me is that I want to see the Niners succeed under Singletary simply to prove you two wrong nearly as much as to revive playoff caliber football. I hate that.

Ultimately this is all horsesheet. Wins will decide Singletary's fate. Period.

Sabrason/Singfan are the same guy,he had to make another account to have someone that would agree with him.Kinda funny in a deranged sad way...