Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by dr8van:
My point was not that you can't win as a power running team. Rather it was that the number of power running teams that have won the Super Bowl is a minority.
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by SF4EVA:
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by nvninerfan1:
That was my point in the mistake thread.
Originally posted by Joecool:
For a receiver to change the way a defense plays, that receiver must make the defense pay for concentrating on the run first.
Defenses are not going to double Crabtree or any of our receivers when we first play them unless there is something to defend.
Gore will see an 8 man front until proven otherwise.
Correct. You also need a QB that threatens a defense. I don't think we have that.
Why would Crabtree WANT to play for the 49ers? It is a power running scheme with a QB who can't break a pane of glass at 15 yards.
Because power running teams make the playoffs more often. How about 40% of the the plays are passes. How about your QB's best asset is the ability to throw the shorter passes. an area where you excel the most being a slot player.
Look being the 13th ranked QB is real good comparing the WR's we had last yr. No im not saying hill is anything more than a pretty good QB but that is better than half the league. Ill take that. for now.
With Vernon Davis scheduled to catch a lot of balls, there isn't much room for another receiver operating in the same area. Also, Crabtree was not used exclusively in the slot. Further, the slot is the hardest position to learn.
Being a power running team may get you INTO the playoffs but you must be able to throw the ball very well to win a Super Bowl. Since Parcells' Giants, there hasn't been a power running team that has won it, even then Simms could go deep with authority when the occasion demanded it.
I still believe there is reason to believe the 49er offensive plans are a negative in Crabtree's eyes. It simply is not a very exciting prospect for a guy coming from a spread offense that was a lot of fun for a receiver to play in.
2000 Ravens did it. Offensively...I wouldve considered them a running team. They were ranked 5th in the run (linky)
Trent Dilfer was the 20th ranked passer that year (linky) and the Raven were ranked 22nd overall in the pass (linky). I believe Shaun Hill is better in the role of managing a game than Trent Dilfer was. I also believe this Niner offensive unit has more talent on it than did that Ravens unit. If the Niners can get into the playoffs anything can happen! As far as what Crabtree wants....Well take a look at the Ravens tight end in 2000. Thats right Shannan Sharpe. This guy was and still is a prototypical diva. He took the reduction in stats for a championship with the Ravens. Yes he was on the Broncos title team...but they were pretty good with the run as well....what was his name????.............Terrell Davis! Elway was a great QB, and Shannan Sharpe was a great tight end, they needed great running game to support them. The Niners current offensive approach is saturated in historical success! This team is headed in the right direction...with or without Crabs!
Further, the NFL is a passing league now. Numerous rule changes have been made to promote passing simply because it appeals to more fans, especially the casual fans who care more about the entertainment of a long pass play than a time-consuming drive to ice the game. When ESPN highlights come on it is invariably filled with long passes.
That is what most young guys like Crabtree have seen all their life. I doubt he is looking at winning a championship now. He IS a pampered athlete who is used to the glare of the spotlight and doesn't see that as a strong possibility in SF. Consequently, he is saying, I'll play for that conservative old codger but you will have to pay me very well if you want me, otherwise I'll take my chances somewhere else next year.
I'm not saying this is the case because I don't know anymore about what has gone on behind the scenes than anyone else. I am only suggesting something that most here have not considered - Crabtree is trying to do what Eli Manning did in San Diego and John Elway did in Baltimore years earlier. It worked well for those guys so he wants to do the same.
I put it to the test. All of the following stats can be researched on NFL.com.
I looked up the stats for Superbowl winners going back to the 1989 season to determine whether they were a passing team or a rushing team. What did they do better? We have 20 years of stats to assess...
1989- NINERS 2nd Pass / 10th Rush - Balanced/Pass
1990- Giants 22nd Pass / 8th Rush - Rushing Team
1991- Redskins 5th Pass / 7th Rush - Balanced
1992- Cowboys 5th Pass / 5th Rush - Balanced
1993- cowboys 7th Pass / 2nd Rush- Balanced/Rush
1994- NINERS 4th Pass / 6th Rush- Balanced
1995- Cowboys 13th Pass / 2nd Rush- Rushing Team
1996- Packers 5th Pass / 11 Rush- Passing Team
1997- Broncos 9th Pass / 4th Rush- Balanced/Rush
1998- Broncos 7th Pass / 2nd Rush- Balanced/Rush
1999- Rams 1st Pass / 5th Rush- Balanced
2000- Ravens 22nd Pass / 5th Rush- Rushing Team
2001- Pats 22nd Pass / 13th Rush- Balanced/Rush
2002- Bucs 15th Pass / 27th Rush - Passing Team
2003- Pats 9th Pass / 27th Rush - Passing Team
2004- Pats 11th Pass / 7th Rush - Balanced
2005- Steelers 24th Pass / 5th Rush - Rushing Team
2006- Colts 2nd Pass / 18th Rush- Passing Team
2007- Giants 25th Pass / 4th Rush - Rushing Team
2008- Steelers 17th Pass / 23rd Rush- Balanced/Pass
5 of the last 20 Superbowl winners possessed a strong rushing offense
4 of the last 20 Superbowl winners possessed a strong passing offense
5 of the last 20 Superbowl winners were balanced on offense- similar ranks for both
4 of the last 20 Superbowl winners had a balanced attack but had measurable more success running the ball than passing.
1 of the last 20 Superbowl winners had a balanced attack but had measurable more success passing the ball than running.
Looks like 45% (9/20) of past Superbowl winners had a strong rushing attack or a balanced attack where the rushing component was measurably stronger. While only 25% of past Superbowl winners had a strong passing attack or a balanced attack where the passing component was measurably stronger. The last 25% of Superbowl winners had a well balanced attack.
Judging by the sample data I wouldnt say power running teams (or teams that can run well) are in the minority of Superbowl winners. In fact it would appear to be the strong passing teams with a weak running game are the minority of Superbowl Champions.
As far as the proposed attitude of not wanting to win a championship now...every player in the NFL rookie or well seasoned Vet, wants to win the Superbowl. Thats the whole point of playing. Right now, the Steelers are the defending champs, I can guarantee you when they start the season next week, they will look just as hungry to win this years championship.
As far as comparisons to Manning and Elway. Both knew at least whom they didnt want to play for and vocalized it. It really wasn't about the money. Crabtree has not stated he doesn't want to play for the Niners, he just believes he should get more than what is he slotted to get. It not specifically against the niners. If the Colts (pass happy) picked him number 10 overall, he would be pulling the same thing.
If you are right and he truly only wants more money b/c he will be in a historically successful offensive scheme albeit conservative in nature, then he really isnt a team guy at all. The niniers missed evaluated him and he is nothing more than another selfish wideout. If that is the case, then dont bother signing him, Id rather not deal with TO part 2: The redux.