Originally posted by D_Niner:
Originally posted by hofer36:
Originally posted by D_Niner:
Originally posted by BrodieFan:
You're right - one game is not a big enough sample. But I could say the same thing about a half a season. I think Shaun Hill should probably start because he ended the season as the starter and had some success, but my worry is that by the third or fourth game he played, some DB's had him almost completely figured out.
The difference is that it only took Hill 10 games to win 7 of them. It took Alex 16 games to get the same number of wins...
I'm not a fan of comparing these different seasons with different systems and different players. There are too many variables to come to any decisive answers.
I like looking at the 07 season because they both played 3 (mostly healthy) games with the same OC, system, and players. Hills stats blow Smiths out of the water here... I only like to use the 06 and 08 data to identify if a trend exists with their play.
IMO Hill will get us more wins, based off of data, stats, and trends, then Smith can.
in 2006 smith's record of 7-9 was reached with a team that had a terrible defense...defense gave up over 40 in a number of games (chiefs and bear games come to mind, they were over before the 1st quarter)....no such defensive bombs in shaun hill's run., except maybe the cowboy game last year.....as you say there are a number of variables, which can affect a number, such as 7-3.....shaun hill stinks up the ram game, throws a punt that josh morgan pulls down, niners get big interception by tarrell brown at games end to win....goes on hill ledger as a win, but does it really add much to the argument that he can lead niners to a playoff...i dont think so...
with shaun hill, niners go 7-9 or 8-8 at best, in my opinion..at least smith has some potential to excel better than that (again, my opinion) as he develops...remember when niners took him, they said they werent necessarily taqking the guy who was best at that point, but rather the guy who would be best 4 years down the road (that 4 year projection is obviously off, given smith missed a year and a half with injury)
even if hill's stats are viewed as better, they are not so outstanding as to make him exempt from competing for the job
You miss the point.... It's not that Hill has performed so well that he is exempt from competition. Its that Smiths performance has been so poor that he does not deserve to compete for the start. Smiths stats indicate he should be our 3rd string QB behind Huard (not competing for the starting spot)...
Above you talk about the D being a major problem with the 2006 season and Hill would only have gone 7-9 if he were the starter.
In that season we only averaged 18.9 points per game with Smith controlling the O. Smith, himself, only threw or ran for 7.9 points per game.
In Hill's opportunities he has our O putting up 20.9 points per game with Hill running or passing for 12.6 points himself.
Now, with our 2006 D problems, wouldn't you want a QB that has proven they can put up more points to compensate for said D? Wouldn't that give us the best chance to win?
My Dear sweet brotha numpsie, here we go again. Still avoiding the fact that a lot, i wont say all, but a lot of fans were on him after norv in 06. Then in 07 when he went 2-1, (who cares about semantics), then got hurt. The TEAM believed in him with every season he played. and really 18.9 points a game, compared to 20.9. Whoopdee doo. thats not enough to say hey appoint hill. Smith and Hill both deserve to compete. Smith playing one full season and winning 2 out of 3 in the following seasons games. Hill as usual ended with two wins one year, and ended the year again with some wins. Notice the pattern there, entire year, first half and second, as opposed to all second half wins. So as a result of this, they both deserve to compete and may the best man win. But please you people sound like Hill's gonna be the next garcia, or young or sumthin. And if we really getting deep about our team, if anything, neither smith or hill led us into the playoffs, so that to me says, s**t they both are on equal ground. Dont believe me, then talk to Sing and see what he feels. Sing's words, were that Hill will be the starter going into camp, which is a given, being he finished the season last year, however he has also said the two men will battle, and if Sing didnt come out and endorse Hill 100%, we all know why, because he's not completely sold. So it's not soo much having to do with Alex, it's more of some of you hating the fact that Sing isnt sold on Hill as much as some of you are.
[ Edited by Jersey9er on Apr 7, 2009 at 12:07 PM ]